By CountingPips.com
The Australian dollar has been on the decline today in Forex trading action ahead of Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting and interest rate decision. The Aussie has fallen against the US dollar, Japanese yen and the European common currency in foreign exchange trading as data published today showed that Australian retail sales unexpectedly contracted in March by 0.4 percent.
Bloomberg data, based on overnight-index swap rates, shows a 53% chance of an interest rate reduction on Tuesday while large money traders, including possibly George Soros, are rumored to be betting on a rate cut.
The AUD/USD in trading today declined and ended the day near the 1.0251 exchange rate level at the New York close of business. This was a decline of approximately 50 pips on the day. The Australian dollar, meanwhile, showed more modest declines against the Japanese yen and the euro today of approximately 25 pips and 30 pips, respectively.
AUD/USD Support & Resistance Levels:
The AUD/USD currency pair trades right near the 1.0250 exchange level at the current time with a downside support level coming into play at 1.0220. This level has provided support numerous times since February while a close below this level would be the lowest close since the beginning of March. Lower downside targets would bring 1.0200 and then 1.0165 to 1.0150 which would be bringing the pair to the lowest levels of 2013.
Upside targets may be capped at the 1.0300 major resistance level that has been an obstacle in the past and features the weekly pivot point very close by. If the pair can get by that obstacle the 1.0325 to 1.0350 resistance will likely come into play.
AUD/USD Changes & Ranges: Past 6 Weeks
| Date | Pct Change | True Range |
| 2013.03.31 | -0.351 | 0.0142 |
| 2013.04.07 | 1.306 | 0.0234 |
| 2013.04.14 | -2.144 | 0.0255 |
| 2013.04.21 | -0.024 | 0.0118 |
| 2013.04.28 | 0.354 | 0.0163 |
| *2013.05.05 | -0.564 | 0.0089 |
* current week so far
Pivots and Trends Data:
Weekly Pivot Point: 1.0295
Monthly Pivot Point: 1.0390
Linear Regression Indicator Trend / Strength Data:
30-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -230.4 pips
60-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 52.9 pips
90-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -36.1 pips
180-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -49.7 pips
365-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 239.6 pips
Article by CountingPips Forex Blog, News & Analysis
