By CountingPips.com
EUR/USD finishes April higher after decline in February and March
The European common currency has started the month of May off with gains to follow up on a positive April in the foreign exchange market trade. The euro rose higher today against the US dollar to touch its highest level since February 25th and has advanced each day so far this week.
The EUR/USD peaked in early trading at a high of 1.3241 before giving back most of those gains later on but managed to end the day with a modest increase. The high of 1.3241 marked the best level for the euro since February 25th when the euro was in the midst of a two month downswing that encompassed February and March after rallying in January. Amazingly, the EUR/USD is trading currently (approximately 1.3180 at time of writing) very close to the same level that it began 2013 at (1.3204).
Will the Euro be able to scale 1.3200 post ECB meeting?
While the euro has been on the uptick for the first half of the week, the test will be seen on Thursday when the European Central Bank concludes its monetary policy meeting and decides whether or not to cut its benchmark interest rate (currently at 0.75%). A rate cut may very well add pressure and weight to the euro but some market watchers feel that a rate cut has already been priced into the exchange rate. Either way, it will be worth watching to see if the EUR/USD can get back over 1.3200 level or if the pair quickly fades lower and has reached a top for the week.
Support & Resistance Levels: 1.3200, 1.3100/25, 1.3000
Looking for likely and major support and resistance levels brings out the obvious 1.3200 level which the pair failed to close above today. Further potential upside targets include 1.3260/85 and then 1.3300. On the downside, we run into 1.3125 which was a past resistance level then the major round numbers below at 1.3100 and 1.3000 are likely targets.
EUR/USD Changes & Ranges: Past 6 Weeks
| week date | pct change | true range |
| 2013.03.24 | -1.9 | 0.0297 |
| 2013.03.31 | +1.62 | 0.0295 |
| 2013.04.07 | +0.68 | 0.0170 |
| 2013.04.14 | -0.01 | 0.0200 |
| 2013.04.21 | -0.21 | 0.0140 |
| *2013.04.28 | +1 | 0.0200 |
* so far this week as of time of writing
Pivots and Trends Data:
Weekly Pivot Point: 1.3031
Monthly Pivot Point: 1.3036
Linear Regression Indicator Trend / Strength Data:
30-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 309.9 pips
60-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -20.7 pips
90-day current trend is BEARISH / Trend strength of -545.4 pips
180-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 165.3 pips
365-day current trend is BULLISH / Trend strength of 388.6 pips
Article by CountingPips Forex Blog & Analysis
