By www.CentralBankNews.info The Bank of Japan (BOJ) confirmed that it plans to boost the country’s monetary base – the combination of cash in circulation and banks reserves at the central bank – by 60-70 trillion yen annually.
Last month the BOJ launched a new aggressive policy of “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing” to rid the country of 15 years of deflation by doubling the monetary base and buying over 7 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds a month along with purchases of real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
“At the Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
“The Bank of Japan will conduct money market operations so that the monetary base will increase at an annual pace of about 60-70 trillion yen,” the bank said in a brief statement.
EURUSD stays within a downward price channel
EURUSD stays within a downward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 1.3201. Resistance is at the upper line of the channel, as long as the channel resistance holds, the downward movement could be expected to continue, and deeper decline to 1.2900 are is still possible. On the upside, a clear break above the channel resistance will suggest that the fall from 1.3201 has completed, then another rise towards 1.3500 could be seen.
The Market Rebounds, but We’re Still Not Selling…
The S&P/ASX 200 closed on Wednesday within a sniff of the March high. It was just 44 points short.
Does that mean you should dump your stocks before the market falls again?
No. As we’ve noted over the past two months, this isn’t a market for selling stocks (with one exception that we’ll explain in a moment). Rather, it’s a market for buying stocks.
In other words, over the past month and for the rest of this year you should either be a buyer, or a non-buyer…
But not a seller. Here’s why…
‘The RBA figures that if it can use subtle messages to steer the market rather than actually cutting or raising interest rates, then it will leave itself with something in its arsenal if the economy really hits the skids.’
Last week the market rallied on news of lower than expected inflation. Investors believed this could allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates.
The RBA will be quite happy for the market to think that…for now anyway.
But with the market getting close to the recent high again, don’t be surprised if the RBA starts making noises in the opposite direction. The report from property spruikers RPData, claiming that house prices are set to double over the next 10 years could be just the excuse the RBA needs to talk up the prospects of a rate increase.
That would see the market slip again, towards the bottom of the trading range. At that point the RBA would allow talk of an interest rate cut to push the market back up again.
And so on, and so on. If you don’t think this is likely, just look at the RBA statements. And look at what central bankers have done overseas. It follows exactly the same pattern.
That’s why we don’t believe you should sell this market, with one exception…
If Your Strategy is Wrong, Change it and Move On
That one exception is where you’ve followed the wrong strategy. We admitted that with a small number of stocks in our monthly investment advisory, Australian Small-Cap Investigator.
We had made a few energy sector picks between 2011 and 2012. One to two years later and it had become apparent the strategy wasn’t working. As much as we’re excited about the prospects for the energy sector, the market isn’t. So three weeks ago we advised our subscribers to halve their exposure to energy by selling five of the stocks.
It’s hard to admit when you’re wrong. But sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and move on to better opportunities. We’ve done that. Besides, we still have some exposure to the energy sector, so if the market regains interest then our subscribers can reap the rewards.
But aside from that kind of portfolio restructuring, we still say this is a great time to own stocks. Do we think you should add to your share portfolio today?
It depends which stocks you’re talking about. Dividend stocks have rallied since the start of the week. We hope you already have a good exposure to dividend stocks. You should, because we’ve told you for more than two years to own them.
But buying them now as the market nears the March top may mean you’re not buying at the best value. And if we’re right about the RBA manipulating the market lower, you’ll get to buy them a bit cheaper in a few weeks anyway.
We can’t say the same for growth stocks. They keep getting a beating. And when many growth stocks are closer to their 52-week low than their 52-week high, it’s hard to say they’re expensive. In fact, growth stocks have taken a double beating. Not only did they miss out on the recent rally, but they’ve fallen the most as the market falls.
That doesn’t mean you can’t make money from growth stocks now. Our old pal, Murray Dawes reckons you can ‘slipstream’ profits from growth stocks in any market. Find out how here.
Just be aware that if you’re a longer term investor, the market still doesn’t favour growth stocks. That will change at some point. But right now, investors still want yield. There’s no telling when the demand for yield will end.
Don’t Miss the Growth Rally When it Comes
Our bet is that it could last until the end of this year. At that point the big institutional investors will get bored of 5% or 6% dividend returns. That’s when you’ll see a return to growth.
And that’s why we’re sticking by our medium term forecast of the Australian market hitting 7,000 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising to 20,000 points by 2015. Dividend stocks can help the index get part of the way there, but not the whole way. In order for the market to get to that key level growth stocks will need to pull their weight.
While we don’t believe the growth rally will take off for another few months, we’re positioning Australian Small-Cap Investigator subscribers for it now. Because like the dividend stock rally, it’s likely the growth stock rally will happen in the blink of an eye.
So if you don’t prepare for it in advance, you’ll likely miss out on the best gains.
Cheers,
Kris
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PS: Many investors lack two crucial things. They want to aim for the big prize without doing the hard yards first. That’s no way to build wealth. In today’s Money Morning Premium I explain the two key traits all investors need, and some simple advice on how to grow your nest-egg with minimal risk…click here to upgrade now.
From the Port Phillip Publishing Library
Special Report: TORRENT SIGNAL 3
Daily Reckoning: Lest We Forget
Money Morning: Is This the Last Hurrah for the Australian Dollar?
Pursuit of Happiness: Booze, Watches and Fancy Pens — the Alternative Retirement Plan
Australian Small-Cap Investigator:
How to Make Money From Small-Cap Stocks
After the Oil Pull Back, Now What?
Precious metals, energy and commodities recently hit a rough patch.
But will these low ‘pullback’ prices last forever? Even in the face of what seems (to me) as an extreme wave of inflation rushing over us?
Today we’ll cover all the bases. Starting with crude oil…
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is in the low-US$90s per barrel, while the iconic Brent Crude price just over US$100. That’s low, by recent standards, for two reasons.
One reason is that global oil demand growth is moderate, due to the creeping worldwide lack of economic confidence. China has slowed. Japan is moribund. Europe is a mess. The North American economy is iffy, on the best of days.
This widespread lack of confidence may or may not morph into the next recession (pleasant thought, eh?). But the global economy is a big, arm-waving subject, and let’s not go there just now.
Another reason for declining oil prices is US fracking. Let’s discuss that. As I’ve written before, the fracking revolution has changed the rules of the global energy game. Every new barrel of ‘fracked’ US crude displaces a barrel of imported oil.
Even five years back, nobody really saw the ‘shale gale’ coming. Yes, a lot of people were leasing land and planning drilling programs. But the overall impact of widespread fracking was entirely speculative.
Certainly, at high political levels, US policymakers have been taken by surprise by the fracking revolution. Large, new supplies of affordable oil and gas were not part of the political script.
Overseas, the fracking effect has confounded many a foreign potentate who grew used to having his way with oil prices, via twisting a few valves. And as to the potentates? Well, screw ‘em. Let’s frack away!
In the US, the sweet spots are known. Leases are in place. Fracking tech is out there. The system for drilling multiple wells, staging logistics and completing the holes is quite developed. The barrels are coming — for the near and medium future, at least.
Large oil exporting countries — Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia, etc. — have reason to sweat. Their traditional flow of petro-lucre is tightening, if not drying up as their own internal consumption rises.
That is, many big oil exporters are called ‘petro-states’ for a reason. They need ever higher oil prices, from net exports, to pay the national bills. Without higher and higher oil prices, they can’t balance accounts. Tough luck.
Meanwhile, lower oil prices are like a global tax cut. And if you’re an airline, railroad, shipping company, trucking company, farmer or fisherman — let alone running a mining operation — stable or declining energy prices means that a key part of your cost structure is moderating. Whew!
To be sure, I do NOT believe that oil prices will crash down into the $30s and $40s per barrel, like in late 2008 or early 2009. I’m not in that school of thought — unless we have another huge market and economic rout, again. In which case, all bets are off.
So what’s the ‘right’ price for oil? I’d say about where it is now. The recent price for oil is low enough to allow large energy-users run their businesses and still make money. Yet the energy price is high enough to encourage people to drill wells and produce more oil and gas. Win-win, all around.
Byron King
Contributing Writer, Money Morning
From the Archives…
Why Waste Your Time on Gold When You Can Invest in Dividend Stocks?
19-04-2013 – Kris Sayce
A Trader’s Eye View of Gold’s Frightening Collapse
18-04-2013 – Murray Dawes
Why You Should Buy ‘Dirty, Grimy’ Gold Stocks
17-04-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie
Why this Historic Fall in the Gold Price Equates to a Historic Opportunity
16-04-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie
Beware the ‘Safety Bubble’, But Don’t Sell Dividend Stocks Yet
15-04-2013 – Kris Sayce
Addictive and Irreversible: Destructive Policies Worldwide
After months of being under central bank-administered anaesthesia, many investors are pondering outside the repeated mantra of, ‘Money printing equals higher stocks.’
The question they’re asking now? How, exactly, swapping overvalued shares back and forth will create wealth for everybody — including those unfortunate enough to be buying late?
Masking symptoms of troubled economies with oceans of fresh money is not a good prescription for ‘wealth creation’.
But the Federal Reserve and other central banks have gone down that road, and there is no going back, even after the uglier symptoms of inflation emerge.
In the wake of the chaotic break in gold futures market, all gold mining stocks have been smashed. After two dreadful years, it looked like a final, cathartic purge. I haven’t seen sentiment and price moves like this since the depths of the 2008 crash.
Let’s examine the question of whether or not the gold bull market is over…
After spending much time re-examining gold’s fundamental drivers, my own assumptions and the views of a few dozen top analysts, I’ve come to the following conclusion: Ignore Wall Street’s clueless, half-baked opinions of the gold futures market.
Most of the banks’ opinions, including Goldman Sachs’ famous ‘short gold’ report, are based on an extremely speculative forecast: that the global economy can thrive after central banks stop printing. This cannot happen.
The only drivers of the US economy in recent years — rebounded stocks, housing and autos — owe their strength almost entirely to the Fed’s policy. Take away the policy, and all three would collapse. So the Fed simply cannot remove the policy. If it attempts to remove easy money, and the economy crashes, it will reinstate printing in a heartbeat.
The fundamental facts have not changed, so the underpinnings of gold’s bull market are intact.
The Number You Need to Know
The number you need to remember is zero.
Zero is where central banks will peg interest rates for several years into the future. Zero is also the number of times in recorded history that the “QE/ZIRP” policies in place worldwide have boosted any economy to ‘escape velocity’ (as economists say).
Such radical policies always result in destruction of the currency being printed. In other words, stagflation — not sustained economic recovery. Japan will discover that history rhymes once its financial market sugar high wears off. It offers a preview for the US.
As inflation expectations rise — the great hope of Bank of Japan governor Kuroda — Japanese investors will discover that money printing schemes are addictive, with no practical exit.
Here’s why: Once consumers buy tomorrow’s products today (ahead of expected price rises), what will they buy when tomorrow arrives? When tomorrow arrives, the howls for another round of printing will be louder than ever! We keep bringing up this question because thus far, there is no indication that any policymakers know (or admit) that Japan’s new policy is addictive and irreversible.
The real world isn’t nearly so simple and easily modelled as the professors running central banks believe. Trying to ‘boost inflation expectations’ will only trap central banks into permanent cycles of easing — both in the US and Japan. And the bigger government debts get, the harder it will be for central banks to tighten policy.
Raising interest rates a few years from now would result in interest expenses consuming an unacceptable amount of government tax revenue; so higher short-term interest rates — which would really put the brakes on gold prices — will not happen.
Finally, zero happens to be the number of fiat currencies in history that held their value.
The [US] dollar’s value isn’t going to zero anytime soon, but debasement continues, and stopping the growth federal entitlement spending — the real driver of federal budget deficits — is politically impossible.
The guardians of the paper dollar’s sanctity, rather than preserving its value with positive real interest rates and balanced budgets, are aggressively pushing it toward its ultimate destination: zero.
I’m waiting to see a strong rebuttal from the defenders of the paper money system. Thus far, I haven’t seen any cases for a strong dollar — a case that proves central banks have not trapped themselves into permanent cycles of easy money.
The gold bull market lives on…
Dan Amoss
Contributing Writer, Money Morning
From the Archives…
Why Waste Your Time on Gold When You Can Invest in Dividend Stocks?
19-04-2013 – Kris Sayce
A Trader’s Eye View of Gold’s Frightening Collapse
18-04-2013 – Murray Dawes
Why You Should Buy ‘Dirty, Grimy’ Gold Stocks
17-04-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie
Why this Historic Fall in the Gold Price Equates to a Historic Opportunity
16-04-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie
Beware the ‘Safety Bubble’, But Don’t Sell Dividend Stocks Yet
15-04-2013 – Kris Sayce
About that Gold Price Crash..
‘Gold Plunges as Fears of Inflation Fade,’ noted the Wall Street Journal last week. And yes, the gold-silver decline was nasty, taking down nominal precious metal prices, as well as the share price for many a mining firm, large, medium and small.
So, why are ‘Fears of Inflation’ fading? It helps that oil prices are moderating and likely will stay moderate for a time. Control over energy costs is good for many a business. No complaints from me, on that point.
Then again, for all the moderation in energy prices, we still see wild immoderation — call it utter profligacy — in government spending across the globe. That’s raw inflation, being cooked into the books.
Governments everywhere — certainly in the US — spend more than they take in, and run up future obligations that they’ll never be able to pay, no matter how many Cyprus-like haircuts governments give to savers and investors.
So can someone explain to me why the fading fear of inflation? I don’t get that. Indeed, as governments spend, spend and spend some more, many investors still buy all manner of government bonds — which as one wag notes, are the latest form of ‘return-free risk’.
Really, when the government can’t repay you, it won’t repay you. If governments can nick your savings accounts, what else can they do to ‘their’ bonds that you were kind enough to buy? What did P.T. Barnum say? ‘There’s a sucker born every minute.’
My point is: why are currencies — dollars, pounds, yen, euros, etc. — not still at risk for inflation? Why are people selling gold and silver down? Well…are people really doing that? Or is it paper gold and paper silver that sold down? Because from what I hear out in the trading pits, the ‘physical’ metal is still scarce, especially in large weights.
The Junior Resource Space
The overall downward situation, with gold and silver, reminds me of what Rick Rule told me in an e-mail, not long ago. We’re in a ‘capitulation’ phase of the market. That, and he advised, ‘Many of your readers will hate you.’
Well, I’m truly sorry that many junior mining plays are ‘down’ in share price, in this overall tough market. Small mining companies carry a boatload of risk — that much you should know. Yes, you can make ‘big’ money with some of those plays, under the right circumstances. But they’re NOT the kind of things on which to bank your retirement wad, if you know what I mean.
I hate vicious, stock market roller-coaster rides as much as anybody, but in my view there’s something there and I’m willing to be patient. Why be patient? Why not take the money off the table and sit on the sidelines for a spell?
Looking Ahead…to the Next Phase
Looking around, the global economy is pouring more metal than the mines and pits can deliver, certainly into the future. Old mines are declining in grade, such as we’ve seen with the recent knocks against copper mining in Chile, for example. Most new mines are horrendously expensive, such that even big guys are cutting back, like BHP Billiton.
Meanwhile, new and significant discoveries are few and far between.
In other words, the ‘long-term’ investment paradigm for exploration and mining is still valid. We have to navigate the shoals, and live through the up and down metal and share markets, which are a disaster, and which may be so for a while.
Through it all, many companies have consistently, as the saying goes, ‘over-promised and under-delivered.’
So what lies ahead? Darwinian selection.
The slow and stupid management teams will fall away. The better thinkers — the true ‘warfighters’ — will come to the forefront, and realize that Big Mining Company XYZ cannot stay in business, let alone get its share price up, by merely laying off secretaries, cutting maintenance on equipment, scaling back exploration and somehow digging ‘deeper’.
No, the intermediate and large guys will have to — perish the thought — go out and BUY something that’s worth a crap. They’ll have to find strong plays, with solid resource numbers, in predictable and safe jurisdictions, with the prospect (so to speak) of turning brown-stained dirt into an economic ore body and mine — with hallmarked ingots coming out the back end.
When that time comes, I have a few ideas if anyone is interested.
Byron King
Contributing Writer, Money Morning
From the Archives…
Why Waste Your Time on Gold When You Can Invest in Dividend Stocks?
19-04-2013 – Kris Sayce
A Trader’s Eye View of Gold’s Frightening Collapse
18-04-2013 – Murray Dawes
Why You Should Buy ‘Dirty, Grimy’ Gold Stocks
17-04-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie
Why this Historic Fall in the Gold Price Equates to a Historic Opportunity
16-04-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie
Beware the ‘Safety Bubble’, But Don’t Sell Dividend Stocks Yet
15-04-2013 – Kris Sayce
Central Bank News Link List – Apr 25, 2013: ECB seen cutting rates, even if it won’t boost economy: Reuters poll
Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.
- ECB seen cutting rates, even if it won’t boost economy: Reuters poll (Reuters)
- Brazil may have to step up pace of rate increases, Hamilton says (Bloomberg)
- Mexico early-April inflation rises more than expected (Reuters)
- ECB would have to raise rates if looking at Germany only: Merkel (Reuters)
- Russia’s tight monetary policy ‘largely justified,’ Putin says (Bloomberg)
- IMF: Several threats to global economy loom in medium term (MNI)
- Fed debate moves from tapering to extending bond buying (Bloomberg)
- Poland left rates unchanged in April on ambiguous recovery signs (Bloomberg)
- ECB: No shortage of collateral for euro-zone banks (MarketWatch)
- Serb central bank bought 5 million euros to slow dinar gains (Bloomberg)
- Outgoing Riksbank rate setter Svensson defends dovish stance (Dow Jones)
- Central banks load up on equities as low rates kill bonds (Bloomberg)
- Carney says central bank’s policies will pay off in near future (the star)
- www.CentralBankNews.info
Gold Forecasts Split at $10,000 and $1000 as ETFs Sell, Central Banks Buy, Indian Dealers Cleaned Out
London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 25 Apr, 07:45 EST
WHOLESALE GOLD rose to an 8-session high just shy of $1450 per ounce in London trade Thursday morning, recovering 45% of this month’s near-record slump.
Asian stock markets also ticked higher, but European shares were flat while commodities extended their rally.
Silver prices were unchanged for the week so far at $23.30 per ounce.
Gold priced in Sterling fell £10 per ounce from an 8-session high of £946 as the Pound jump on news that the UK avoided recession – growing just 0.3% – in the first quarter of 2013.
“Gold is continuing [its] recovery,” says the daily comment from the commodities team at Germany’s Commerzbank.
“Rate-cut speculation ahead of next week’s [Eurozone central bank] meeting – and the prospect of continued ultra-loose US monetary policy following more weak economic figures – are lending buoyancy to the gold price.”
Investors who buy gold, writes Société Générale’s global strategist Albert Edwards in a new report, are making “a bet against central banks’ competency.”
Given central banks’ track record, he adds – repeating his team’s forecast of $10,000 gold – “that’s certainly a bet I’d be happy to still take.”
Money-creation leading to a surge in inflation is also the forecast from billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, who reportedly told clients on a webinar Wednesday that he and his chief precious metals strategist – the highly respected former UBS analyst John Reade – are also “holding course” despite last week’s price crash.
Dutch bank ABN Amro however – which this month said “the demise of gold [was] still at an early stage” – today revised its $1000 gold forecast from end-2015 to the end of 2014.
“ETF [trust funds] still see sellers, but physical demand remains very strong,” says Moudi Raad at Swiss refining and finance group MKS.
New York’s giant SPDR Gold Trust yesterday shed another 4 tonnes of gold, taking the bullion held to back its shares down to the lowest level since the start of September 2009 at 1093 tonnes.
Over in India however – the world’s heaviest gold-buying nation – “We are unable to get supply,” Reuters quotes a state-bank dealer.
“Refiners have sold out till second or third week of May. Gold for immediate delivery is quoted at $10 on London prices.”
Latest data from the International Monetary Fund meantime show that emerging-market central banks again chose to buy gold for their reserves in March.
Russia led central-bank gold buying, adding 4.7 tonnes to reach 981 tonnes, while Turkey continued to pull in metal from its commercial banks, adding a further 33 tonnes to reach 409.
“I think physical and central banks…those buyers are supporting the market,” Reuters quotes Yuichi Ikemizu at Standard Bank in Tokyo.
“With this sharp decline in the price,” he adds, “I think South Korea is buying gold too. [It] always buys gold when the price comes off.”
Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online
Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.
(c) BullionVault 2013
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
Philippines cuts SDA rate by 50 bps but holds policy rate
By www.CentralBankNews.info The Philippine central bank kept its main policy rates steady but again cut the interest rate on its Special Deposit Account (SDA) facility by 50 basis points to 2.0 percent for all maturities, moves that were expected, and said it would “deploy macroprudential measures as needed to pre-emptively address any potential misalignment in asset prices.”
The Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) said its decision to maintain the benchmark overnight borrowing rate at 3.50 percent and the overnight lending rate at 5.50 percent was based on its assessment that inflation is “likely to remain manageable over the bank’s policy horizon” and in the lower half of its target range for 4.0 percent, plus/minus one percentage point.
The central bank has been using the SDA facility, which has now been cut by 150 basis points this year, to make it less attractive for foreign funds to park their money in the Philippines which tends to put upward pressure on the peso and fuel local asset prices.
But by keeping the overnight borrowing and lending rates steady, the central bank is trying to ensure that there is enough liquidity to stimulate economic activity. The bank also maintained its reserve requirement ratios.
The reductions in the SDA rate is part of the central bank’s shift toward a corridor system for its interest rates, a system that has been used by other central banks, such as Turkey, to handle the “wall of liquidity” that is attracted to fast-growing economies from investors in many advanced economies where interest rates have been ultra-low since the global financial crises.
Last year the Philippine peso appreciated by 6.8 percent against the U.S. dollar but since March the peso has been easing and portfolio investment data show a net outflow, which economists attribute to the central bank’s move to cut the SDA rate.
The bank’s monetary board said the current benign inflation environment and robust domestic growth is providing its scope to absorb liquidity through the SDA facility, helping it fine-tune and gain flexibility in its monetary policy instruments and operations.
Inflation in the Philippines eased to 3.2 percent in March, down from 3.4 percent, and last month the central bank raised its forecasts for full-year inflation to 3.3 percent from 3.0 percent.
The risks to the central bank’s inflation outlook are evenly balanced with downside risks from the strength of the global economy and the “relative firmness of the peso” while the upside risks stem from power rate adjustments and the “possibility of a sustained surge in liquidity owing to strong capital inflows,” the bank’s monetary board said.
The country’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter from the third for annual growth of 6.8 percent, down from 7.2 percent in the third quarter.
The Philippine economy expanded by 6.6 percent in 2012 and the government forecasts growth of 6-7 percent this year. Last month the central bank’s governor said the economy was still in an expansion phase in the first quarter of this year.
Last year the BSP cut its benchmark overnight borrowing, or reverse purchase facility (RRP) rate by 100 basis points, most recently in October in light of low inflation. Since then it has kept the rate steady to allow the lower rate to work its way through the economy and stimulate activity.
GBPUSD rebounded from 1.5197
Being contained by the support of upward trend line from 1.4831 to 1.5034, GBPUSD rebounded from 1.5197, suggesting that the downward movement from 1.5411 has completed. Further rise to test 1.5411 resistance would likely be seen, a break above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.4831 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.5600 area. Key support is now at 1.5197, only break below this level will suggest that the uptrend from 1.4831 had completed at 1.5411 already, then the following downward move could bring price to 1.4500 zone.
