By Bill Bonner
Whoa! On Friday, gold got whacked hard – down $63. It’s barely holding above $1,500.
Is this the end for the bull market in gold? Everybody says so. From The New York Times:
In Pocatello, Idaho, the tiny golden
treasure of Jon Norstog has dwindled… A $29,000 investment that Mr.
Norstog made in 2011 is now worth about $17,000, a loss of 42%.
“I thought if worst came to worst and
the government brought down the world economy, I would still have
something that was worth something,” Mr. Norstog, 67, says of his foray
into gold.
Gold, pride of Croesus and store of
wealth since time immemorial, has turned out to be a very bad investment
of late. A mere two years after its price raced to a nominal high, gold
is sinking — fast. Its price has fallen 17% since late 2011. Wednesday
was another bad day for gold: The price of bullion dropped $28, to
$1,558 per ounce.
And this was before gold tumbled on Friday.
We can barely stop laughing.
This sad sack “investor” thought he would make money by putting $29,000 into gold stocks.
Ha-ha. Wrong on all counts. He thought gold was an “investment”… he
thought an amateur speculator could make money in gold stocks… and The New York Times thought he was an investor.
And now The New York Times thinks gold is going down. Why?
Now… things are looking up for the
economy and, as a result, down for gold. On top of that, concerns that
the loose monetary policy at Federal Reserve might set off inflation — a
prospect that drove investors to gold — have so far proved to be
unfounded.
So Wall Street is growing increasingly
bearish on gold, an investment that banks and others had deftly marketed
to the masses only a few years ago.
Ha-ha. Do you remember Wall Street deftly marketing gold to the
masses a few years ago? Show us the ads! Give us the brokers’ phone
logs! Prove it!
The fact is, the masses never got anywhere near gold. Not even close.
Most people have never seen a gold coin… and few are as reckless as
the aforementioned Mr. Norstog. Most are even more reckless! They’ll
wait for gold to hit $2,000… or $3,000 before they buy.
Which is why we’re nowhere close to the top. Wall Street never
marketed gold deftly… or any other way. Not even in its usual greedy,
heavy-handed fashion. And the masses never bought it.
Just the opposite. As the price of gold rose, we saw ads in the paper
soliciting people to SELL gold. The masses held gold parties… in
which they sold their golden heirlooms at preposterously low prices.
And those concerns that money printing by central banks would cause trouble that have “so far proved to be unfounded”? Well, stay tuned!
The Good News About Gold
More good news from the NYT:
On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs became the
latest big bank to predict further declines, forecasting that the price
of gold would sink to $1,390 within a year, down 11% from where it
traded on Wednesday. Société Générale of France last week issued a
report titled “The End of the Gold Era,” which said the price should
fall to $1,375 by the end of the year and could keep falling for years.
Why “good news”? Because the more bearish on gold Wall Street
becomes, the more the rubes and pumpkins sell. The more they sell… the
cheaper it is for the smart money to buy.
Yes, dear reader, we hope Goldman and SocGen are right. We’d like to see gold crash down around $1,300… or lower.
First, because this would mark a real correction in the bull market.
It’s been going on for 12 years without a serious correction. Not a
healthy situation. We’d like to get the correction out of the way…
shaking out the Johnnies-come-lately and the two-bit speculators. Then,
the final stage in the bull market could begin.
Second, because it gives us a chance to buy more. Because no matter
what noise you hear in the press or in the street, central bankers are
far more reckless than Mr. Norstog. The monetary authorities are
convinced that they can revive sluggish economies by printing money…
and they’ll continue printing until all hell breaks loose.
Then, when the dust settles… when pounds, pesos, yen, euros and dollars have all been beaten and bruised… there will be one currency still standing tall. That will be gold.
Regards,
Bill
