Month: March 2013

By WallStreetDaily.com

Sorry!

I figured it’s best to get the apology out of the way up front. Because, inevitably, some readers are going to be offended by the fact that I’m talking about patents again. (See here, here, here, here, here, here and here.)

But patents really do matter that much.

Heck, without airtight patents, Apple (AAPL) wouldn’t have been able to revolutionize the world the way it did, since it’s likely the iPhone never would’ve happened.

So, like a good parent, I’m going to keep pounding it into your heads every chance I get – until every last one of you gets it.

I’m confident you’ll thank me for it later.

And here’s why, courtesy of the number crunchers at MDB Capital Group, Intellectual Asset Management (IAM) and Barron’s.

Do You Need Any More Proof?

MDB is the only investment bank on Wall Street that focuses exclusively on intellectual property (IP). And IAM is the publication of record for all things IP.

Recently, the two combined their expertise to develop a unique data set, the US Patent 100.

What does it do?

Essentially, it ranks and analyzes the largest U.S. patent holders.

And their research uncovered two important findings.

First, of the more than 140,000 unique U.S. patent holders, a mere 311 companies control over 50% of all U.S. patents.

Second, if we focus just on the US Patent 100, they control over 33% of all patents.

A quick extrapolation of this study – along with last year’s study from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and the Economic Statistics Administration – suggests that a handful of patent holders employs millions upon millions of people.

And, more importantly, they generate trillions of dollars in annual revenue (and profits).

Simply put, patents ultimately produce profits – and, in turn, boost share prices.

The takeaway for investors couldn’t be more straightforward. We should always strive to identify key patent holders early on. That way we can share in the profits as the market (eventually) realizes the value of each company’s IP.

Speaking of…

Is Wall Street Finally Catching On?

A recent article in Barron’s reveals that Wall Street might finally be figuring out the connection between patents and profits, too. (Better late than never, I guess.)

In “A Rewarding Development,” Jack Hough cites a “landmark study from Georgetown.” It found that companies that spend aggressively on research and development (R&D) enjoy fatter margins and higher stock prices, based on 50 years’ worth of data.

Hough concludes that investors should “watch for high-tech businesses with surging R&D spending.” By doing so, Hough adds, “They effectively buy into new products or services before they’re launched, or even announced, and long before Wall Street has built them into earnings forecasts.”

Close, Jack! But that’s not exactly the case.

You see, any company can aggressively spend money on R&D. But the simple expenditure doesn’t mean a breakthrough is going to materialize any time soon. If ever.

Heck, it could take several years – and millions of dollars – for R&D efforts to yield a new product or innovation.

In other words, high R&D spending doesn’t guarantee the development of anything valuable at all. It just guarantees that money is being spent.

On the other hand, patents and patent applications are proof positive that R&D spending has been fruitful. So it’s really by tracking patent filing activity – not merely R&D spending, as Hough suggests – that we can “buy into new products or services” long before the market realizes their ultimate value.

Bottom line: You can’t afford to ignore intellectual property any longer.

As MDB’s Chief IP Officer, Erin-Michael Gill, concludes, “Investors can use patent activity as a proxy for innovative activity” and to make “more informed investments.”

Indeed! And that’s exactly what I’ve been preaching and practicing since 2008, when I first started recommending patent-rich technology companies to WSD Insider subscribers. With admirable results, I might add.

We’ve locked in gains on IP-rich companies of 36%, 72%, 126%, 48%, 66%, 152%, 166% and 120%, just to name a few.

So if you’re looking to capitalize on the increasing relevance and value of patents in the market, I encourage you to sign up for a risk-free trial to WSD Insider.

For a limited time, we’re offering a 45-day, all-access pass to our research. Including our work on two companies that are the least-known – yet fastest-growing and technologically relevant – patent owners.

As I just told subscribers, they represent the “surest bets in the world” as the rest of Wall Street wakes up to the value of patents. Don’t miss out.

Ahead of the tape,

Louis Basenese

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: One Dirty Investing Secret Wall Street is Clueless About

By MoneyMorning.com.au

We saw some fairly serious selling pressure in Europe last night with attention turning to Italy, where it looks like they’ll have trouble forming a government. An Italian bond auction also fell short of expectations and so interest rates there headed sharply higher.

The banks of Europe have been hit over the last few days since the announcement of the Cyprus deal and the bumbling honesty of the Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem (say that three times quickly).

The banks that are attached to the teat of the ECB via the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) are the main ones coming under fire, as you would expect.

But once again we were saved from the gates of hell by the US market, which opened down but then steadily rallied all day long to close pretty much flat on the day on very low volume and the lowest average trade size of the year.

Credit markets in the US are not being dragged along for the ride to the upside, and whenever a divergence opens up between credit and equities you can be sure it is equities that are living in dream land…

How to Trade the Market

But the fact is the old saying about the market is right. ‘Where the market goes that’s where it is.’ It sounds like a silly statement when you first read it, but when you think about it there is some good advice to be gleaned.

Our perception of the market is not the market. Whether or not the market is a completely fraudulent, manipulated farce (which it is) doesn’t matter. What matters is the price and only the price. We have to play by the rules we are given and there is very little point in jumping up and down when the price action doesn’t agree with our expectations.

Fighting the market is a losing game ultimately. Who is your opponent when you are fighting the market? It doesn’t take too long to work out that you are fighting yourself. The market is always neutral.

It doesn’t really care if you make a million dollars or lose your shirt. The battle is always internal. Every skip of the heart as prices move is caused not by the market but by our reaction to it.

As Marcus Aurelius, an Emperor of Rome and one of the great Stoic philosophers, put it, ‘Stop perceiving the pain you imagine and you’ll remain completely unaffected. External things are not the problem. It’s your assessment of them. Which you can erase right now. If the problem is something in your own character, who’s stopping you from setting your mind straight?’

And just to force the point home he also said, ‘I can control my thoughts as necessary; then how can I be troubled? What is outside my mind means nothing to it. Absorb that lesson and your feet stand firm.’

Marcus Aurelius fought battles with the rampaging Germanic hordes in the last decade of his life while he wrote the aphorisms above in an amazing book called The Meditations. If anyone has the right to give us advice on how to cope with the vagaries of life it is him.

I think we all know that it would take a super human effort to remain unaffected by everything that occurs externally from us. We are emotional beings filled with ego. It sounds great in theory to stand aloof from the market and make decisions without an ounce of internal disturbance.

I think the best we can hope for is to understand how irrational we can be in the face of a gyrating market and create as many rules as necessary to place a straightjacket around our impulses.

That is really the basis of technical analysis for me. It is not a crystal ball. It is just a windsock that gives you a hint of the underlying forces driving the market.

It helps to create lines in the sand where I can accept that I am wrong quickly rather than relying on hope, which we all know ‘springs eternal’. If you are interested, have a look at a presentation I have done about my trading approach and why I think there are some great trading opportunities coming up. You can view it here.

What I find intriguing about the current rally is that my trending indicators all turned up late last year but I chose to ignore them because I am fundamentally bearish. The feeling that, ‘I am right and the market is wrong,’ is a hard one to shake. The market, of course, is always right.

This then throws up the challenge to let go of all ‘views’ about the market and to rely purely on your technical indicators for all trading decisions. There is no doubt that whatever your view on the market happens to be there will always be a period where the market will make a fool of you.

The bulls get killed in bear markets and the bears are skewered in bull markets, like now. I don’t know of anyone who is bullish in bull markets and bearish in bear markets and constantly gets the shift in trends right. No one.

There’s a Difference Between Trading and Opinion

Most market commentators aren’t traders. They just wax lyrical about the markets and their views but they never say when they are proven right and when they are proven wrong. No targets and no stop losses, just sweeping views that make it impossible to pin them down later for being wrong.

Actually trading the markets is a completely different kettle of fish. Volatility is so intense that you can be completely right about your big picture view, but if your timing is out you lose money. You can get stopped out of a stock and then watch in horror as it turns around almost immediately and heads in the direction you expected.

When that happens should you jump back in? It’s moments like these that no one tells you about before you start trading. The learning curve when entering the markets is immense and really it’s never ending because the market itself is always changing.

The rise of High Frequency Trading (HFT) has changed the structure of price action, perhaps forever if the regulators aren’t willing to step in and level the playing field.

Another factor affecting asset markets is of course the worldwide money printing and ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) of the major central banks.

This is a new world that we live in. How long this game lasts is really anyone’s guess. I think there are many people that know it can’t go on forever but as always it all comes down to timing.

My ‘view’ is that we are close to a major market top, but as I said above ‘views’ aren’t worth all that much. While the trend remains up in the US markets I will just have to accept the fact, and wait until my charts tell me that the trend has changed.

So get prepared for the headlines screaming that all is well and new all-time highs have been reached in the S+P 500. But don’t believe for a minute that the price of the market is a true reflection of the state of the real world.

Murray Dawes
Editor, Slipstream Trader

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From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: Australia’s Energy Stock BLOWOUT

Daily Reckoning: In Gold, Not Cyprus, We Trust

Money Morning: Silver ‘$100 Within Two Years’

Pursuit of Happiness: Learn This Lesson from Cyprus Before it’s Too Late

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Mining executives often like to describe their business as an exercise in earth moving. Maybe because they are not geologists they downplay the challenge of finding the stuff in the first place.

Instead they concentrate on the physical challenge and cost of digging it up, sorting the metal from the ore and taking it to the nearest railway line or shipping terminal.

Sometimes this process runs smoothly. In countries with established mining industries, with modern transport networks and power grids, mining is a simple business. But today’s miners are increasingly going where no miner has gone before, and they are finding that the necessary infrastructure does not exist.

One of the most exciting new mining regions is in West Africa, on the borders of Cameroon, Gabon and the Republic of Congo. Such is its wealth of iron ore that it has been called the new Pilbara – the rich iron ore region of Western Australia – but it is several hundred miles inland and unless a way can be found of getting the ore to the coast, commercial development will not be possible.

Why go to the trouble? Well, because of the potential for huge gains, of course. I’ll point to a few very attractive prospects today…

Let the Chinese Pay for It

A new note from Investec highlights the extent of the challenge in West Africa.

‘There are multiple hurdles facing development of projects. The key issues include the almost complete lack of infrastructure and the vast amount of capital required to install it; the relatively small sizes of the companies involved; the high sovereign risks (exacerbated by multiple borders); demanding operating conditions and assorted ownership… Each of the companies involved in the region lacks the critical mass in its own right to justify the capital risk in developing the respective asset.’

What is needed then is either some form of co-operation or else somebody with very deep pockets indeed. For the latter, the deepest pockets seem to be Chinese, and hopes for the region have been centred upon Hanlong Mining.

Controlled by Sichuan-based billionaire Liu Han, Hanlong launched a bid back in 2011 for Sundance Resources (ASX: SDL), which hopes to develop the massive Mbalam iron ore deposits straddling the border of Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.

Hanlong received a provisional approval from the Chinese National Development Reform Commission, provided that it brought in a ‘large Chinese partner’ capable of funding the $5bn cost of developing the mine and the necessary infrastructure.

This is a very major investment indeed. SDL is proposing a 510km heavy-gauge railway from Mbarga to the Cameroon coast, with a 70km extension south of Mbarga to Nabeba. This would run to a new port south of the existing facility at Kribi, capable of accommodating the 300,000 deadweight tonnage cape-sized ships.

China Harbour Engineering company, a subsidiary of a Chinese state-owned enterprise, signed a memorandum of understanding in 2010 to manage this project, while an outfit called China-Africa-Construction signed another MOU at the same time to scope the rail development and the required rolling stock.

You Should Keep an Eye on This Story

Again, this is no simple matter. The railway must cut through dense rainforest and make a 600 metre descent to the coastal plain. Seven bridges must be built along the way. Already the matter is stalled. Since launching its bid for SDL in July 2011, Hanlong was first forced to up the price and has then negotiated it down again in line with the falling price of iron ore.

The deal still has not been finalised and to add a bit of spice to the affair Liu Han has reportedly been arrested by Chinese police. ‘Until we get an explanation I’m a bit concerned,’ said SDL chairman George Jones, mildly.

Now there has been a fresh development.

SDL is reported to be discussing a sale of the Mbalam project to Glencore (LSE: GLEN), which already owns the nearby Avima project. ‘Consolidation of the assets could provide the critical mass to stimulate a development decision by Glencore,’ says Investec.

Key to this, however, would be confidence that the transport links could be built, a particularly thorny challenge in view of the number of interested parties.

Dealing with one African government is hard enough. To get three to agree on the building of a new rail and port system, and access to it, is a diplomatic challenge of mega proportions.

For investors this is an important story. But my guess is that it will be a long time before wagons of iron ore are trundling through the West African jungle.

Tom Bulford,
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared in MoneyWeek

From the Archives…

Why You Should Buy This Falling Stock Market
22-03-2013 – Kris Sayce

Stock Market Warning: Part II
21-03-2013 – Murray Dawes

New Developments on Whether You Can Get Your Mortgage Cancelled
20-03-2013 – Nick Hubble

Your Retirement or Your Mortgage?
19-03-2013 – Nick Hubble

Get Used to This Stock Market Action, It’s Set to Last…
18-03-2013 – Kris Sayce

By Jim Nelson

Here’s a prediction…

If you are searching for stocks that yield super-high dividends, you’re probably making a big mistake.

That’s because high yielders are much more volatile and tend
to underperform larger, safer dividend payers with longer histories of
dividend payments.

The first step to building a bulletproof income portfolio is not to reach for yield into riskier stocks. It’s to start with a solid foundation. To buy only the safest dividend stocks.

These stocks should make up the “bedrock” of your portfolio.

Take a look at the chart below. It shows the performance of three
important indexes since the start of the 2008 crash, all reset to a
baseline of 100. They are the S&P 500 (blue line), the S&P 500
Dividend Aristocrats Index (green line) and the S&P High Yield
Dividend Aristocrats Index (red line).

View Larger Chart

As you can see, the Dividend Aristocrats Index wins hands down. This
index contains only S&P 500 companies that have grown their
dividends every year for at least 25 years.

Only 51 companies — a hair over 10% of the entire index — qualify. That’s the kind of “bedrock” you’re looking for.

The High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index selects its constituents
from the S&P Composite 1500, a larger group of stocks that includes
many riskier plays. Also, it requires only 20 years of dividend
increases. That’s how it can find higher-yielding stocks than the
Dividend Aristocrats Index.

But sticking to larger, longer-paying dividend stocks would have made
you 14.4% more on your investment than if you had stretched for those
high yields. And it outperformed the S&P 500 by an impressive 32%.

The reason is simple. High-yielding stocks often don’t stay that way for long.

Typically, the reason they have higher-than-average yields
is they carry more risk and have less growth potential than their
rivals. So they bump up their dividend payments to attract investors.
Other times, these higher yielders are paying out too much of their
earnings through dividends and can’t sustain their payout ratios.

Take beauty products maker Avon Products Inc. (NYSE:AVP),
for example. Its board was recently forced to cut the company’s
quarterly dividend from 23 cents to just 6 cents per share. That’s a
massive blow to income-hungry shareholders.

This is why I recommend that readers of my income advisory service, Income & Dividend Report, start off by building a solid bedrock of income.

That means buying shares in companies that have long histories of
raising their dividend payments. I also look for large-cap companies
with strong earnings growth, products that their customers can’t live
without and strong management teams.

These companies are best placed to weather market storms. They are
also best placed to continue growing their earnings — which they must
do if they are to keep paying out higher dividends.

One my favorite “bedrock” dividend payers right now is consumer products maker The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX), which owns household brands such Pine-Sol cleaners, Poett home-care products, Fresh Step cat litter and Glad trash bags.

Clorox has been paying a growing dividend for 35 consecutive years.
And it has continued to lay the foundation for future dividend hikes by
entering new, fast-growing emerging markets.

Make this — and stocks like it — the bedrock of your income
portfolio. And don’t get suckered by high yielders that can’t sustain
their dividend payouts.

Sincerely,

Jim

P.S. Clorox is a great way to start building a bulletproof income
portfolio. But there are even more solid and safe dividend stocks out
there. I recently recommended two of these super-safe stocks to Income & Dividend Report readers. To find out how to get access to them and to start receiving future recommendations, follow this link.

By Justice Litle

What are the odds of a 1987-style stock market crash before the year is out?

Higher than you may think…

First, let’s look at why U.S. markets have been so strong. Then I’ll
explain why I believe the party could be about to end violently.

So far this year, U.S. stocks have handily outpaced the MSCI World
(ex-U.S.) Index. And the major U.S. indexes — the Dow Industrials, the
Dow Transports and the S&P 500 — have been at or close to multiyear highs… even in the face of eurozone member Cyprus’ near meltdown.

There have been four important factors supporting stocks:

1. A surprisingly strong housing recovery
2. Evidence of accelerating consumer spending
3. Increasing pressure from retail investors to own more stocks
4. Confirmation the Fed will stay on “hold” with its monetary easing.

But the fourth reason for stocks’ recent highs is the strongest:
confidence that the Fed will stay on “hold.” In other words, that it
will keep interest rates ultra low… and keep the printing presses
whirring… for years to come. That’s because much of the cheap credit
is flowing into stocks.

The problem is that interest rates can’t stay ultra low
forever. Nor can the Fed keep its foot on the stimulus pedal
indefinitely.

This is critically important. Because when it comes to stock market expectations, investors pay too much attention to the broad economy and not enough attention to credit conditions.

Stocks can tread water even when the economy is weak, if credit
conditions are loose enough. And they can fall even when the economy is
strong, if credit conditions are transitioning from loose to tight.

But they can really shoot up, if the economy is growing and the Fed
is easing, as this chart courtesy of Gluskin Sheff shows. In fact, the
average annual gain for the S&P 500 when the economy has been
growing (no matter how anemic that growth is) and the Fed has been
easing has been 11%.

View Larger Chart

The problem is the Fed must tighten credit conditions eventually. And the stronger the economy looks, the sooner it will have to do so.

But bullish stock market investors do not want to see the Fed
tightening. And any sign that the Fed is about to turn off the money
spigots could trigger a 1987-style crash.

Don’t forget that 1987 was great for stocks — up until the weekend
of the October crash. Euphoria had broken out, with excellent credit
conditions fueling the party.

Then a giant needle scratched across the record… with no
forewarning other than general observations as to how dangerously
overextended markets had become.

A stock market crash is a bit like an avalanche in wait. With tons
of loose rock in precarious position, it becomes increasingly possible
for a random pebble or loud noise to kick off the disaster.

The irony is that accelerating U.S. domestic strength could encourage investors to pile harder into the market and trigger the coming avalanche (when mass realization that interest rates will be forced higher hits).

For your own portfolio, there are at least three ways to prepare: mentally, financially and strategically.

Mentally — Steel yourself. Be aware that the
higher euphoria rises, the higher the odds of an unexpected crash event
(or violent downside dislocation), which could come with little
warning.

Financially — Maintain a war chest of cash
reserves. Not only does cash provide stability in times of turmoil, its
value increases dramatically in the aftermath of a crash (via fire
sales on high-quality assets).

Strategically — Consider adding a mix of shorts in
overbought and overhyped companies with weak fundamentals to your
portfolio alongside longs.

Carpe Divitiae,

Justice

Editor’s note: In the portfolio of my new service, Strategic Wealth Report,
I will be preparing for a potential crash through a mix of bullish and
bearish positions. Offset against our long-side moneymaking
opportunities, I will seek out safe ways of taking bearish positions in
select areas of the market. These positions could return hundreds —
even thousands — of percent in the event of a full-on crash. Stay tuned
for details on how to subscribe…

By The Sizemore Letter

Auto stocks have had a nice run over the past month, the present Cyprus jitters notwithstanding.  Before the recent sell-off, most global automakers were up 5-8% for the month, with two notable exceptions: German automakers Daimler AG (Pink: DDAIF) and Volkswagen AG (Pink:VLKAY).  And though it’s not included in the stock chart, rival German luxury automaker BMW (Pink: BAMXY) has had a similarly rough ride.

What gives?  Why have German engines been sputtering when American and Japanese continue to purr?

I take particular interest in this because Daimler is an open recommendation of the Sizemore Investment Letter and my pick in InvestorPlace’s Best Stocks of 2013 contest. The stock’s recent underperformance has caused me to fall from as high as third place to my current lowly spot in seventh.  Ouch.

There are a handful of factors at work here.  First, Japanese stocks have massive momentum right now due to the perceived bullishness of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reflation policies, and this is benefitting Toyota (NYSE:$TM) and Honda (NYSE:$HMC).  I see this ending badly—see “Japan is Running Out of Time”—and I would not recommend having any long-term positions in Japanese stocks.  But for the time being Japanese equities are hot, and I expect Toyota and Honda to follow the broader Japanese market.

Secondly, with the U.S. economy showing signs of life, General Motors (NYSE:$GM) and Ford (NYSE:$F) have been rallying in hopes that this will translate into a sustained rise in domestic auto sales.  It also helps that GM and Ford are two of the cheapest stocks in America at the moment, trading at 6.4 and 7.8 times expected forward earnings, respectively.  And their recent outperformance has come after a year in which both had pretty modest returns relative to the S&P 500.

But the biggest reason for Daimler’s underperformance of late is that the maker of the iconic Mercedes Benz has the misfortune of being domiciled in Europe. The past month and a half have not been kind to investors in European stocks.  The inconclusive Italian election—which saw anti-austerity parties make massive gains in the polls—raised the possibility that all of Mario Monti’s progress over the past year was about to be reversed.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is embroiled in a corruption scandal that is weakening his government at exactly the time when strong leadership is needed most, and Spanish growth forecasts released this week were worse than investors had hoped.

And to top it all off, the Cyprus bailout—which should have been simple and straightforward—turned into a confidence-crushing publicity disaster that has sent European stocks into a tailspin.

Right now, the “Draghi Put” is being tested.  European Central Bank President Mario Draghi promised nearly a year ago to “do whatever it takes” to save the euro, and this did wonders for market confidence.   As bad as the recent sell-off has been, without the Draghi Put in place it would have been orders of magnitude worse.

But what does it mean going forward?  If the bank runs spread from Cyprus to other crisis-hit countries, the ECB will provide whatever emergency liquidity is needed.  And concerns that deposits at weaker banks might be at risk of confiscation in the event of a bailout should actually help larger, more stable banks such as Spain’s Banco Santander (NYSE:$SAN).

I have some concerns that fear of asset seizures will cause higher-income European drivers to postpone buying a new Mercedes for a few months.  But in the case of Daimler, this is a relatively minor concern.  Western Europe accounts for only about a third of sales, and sales have remained remarkably steady throughout the turmoil of the past few years.  If the chaos of last year didn’t run Daimler off the road, then neither will the fallout over Cyprus.

The key to Daimler’s success lies further east.  If Chinese and emerging market demand remains strong, Daimler could easily post another year of record sales.  Yes, I said “another.”  Despite all of the Eurozone-related drama last year, Daimler enjoyed a record year for sales in 2012.

At this stage, investors face the risk of short-term, sentiment-driven volatility in Daimler, but the risk permanent or long-term loss is miniscule at current prices.  Use today’s volatility as an opportunity to accumulate more shares.

To track Daimler’s performance, follow the InvestorPlace Best Stocks of 2013 contest.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long DDAIF

SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.

The post What’s Driving Daimler’s Recent Underperformance? appeared first on Sizemore Insights.

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Georgia’s central bank cut its benchmark refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent, its second rate cut this year, saying it had cut its inflation projection and now forecasts inflation to remain below the bank’s target throughout this year and first approach it in the second half of 2014.
    The National Bank of Georgia, which started its monetary easing cycle in July 2011, said economic activity weakened at the end of last year, and lower demand is pushing the price level downwards.
    A slowdown in the growth of imports in January and February is another indication of a slowdown in domestic demand, the bank said.
    Georgia’s consumer price inflation continued to drop in February as deflation maintained its grip on Georgia. Inflation was minus 2.12 percent in February, slightly up from January’s minus 1.6 percent.
     Since February 2012, the inflation rate has only been positive in two months, October and July, with inflation rates of 0.56 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.
    The central bank said its forecasts for inflation had dropped since the last meeting of its monetary policy committee, which targets inflation of 6 percent.
     Georgia’s central bank cut rates by 150 basis points in 2012 and has now cut by 75 basis points this year following a 50 basis point reduction in February.
     The central bank said the economy expanded by an annual 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter and credit activity remains weak due to low demand for loans, leading to a slowdown in demand.
    “Low credit activity also weakens the interest rate channel of monetary transmission,” the central bank said.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

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As a group, the 14 speakers at The 2013 Social Mood Conference offer a one-of-a-kind meeting of the minds. Yet many of the individuals alone provide enough reason to attend.

One such speaker is Todd Harrison, founder and CEO of MinyanvilleMedia, Inc., who will discuss how he uses “Social Mood as a Leading Indicator to the Stock Market.”

Recognize the name? Harrison, a Wall Street veteran and a consummate student of the markets, was featured in the 20th anniversary documentary of Oliver Stone’s hit film, Wall Street, and he’s a go-to expert for the major financial news outlets and periodicals. Learn more

Reason 8: Hear from the world-renowned poll researchers at Gallup.

A window into the minds of six billion people, Gallup’s World Poll tracks what many thought was immeasurable, including key states of mind around the world, such as fear, hope and attachment to one’s community.

Jon Clifton and Joe Daly will detail the World Poll’s most significant findings, and what all leaders in any organization, industry or government need to know about what people are thinking right now. Learn more

For the next five reasons, plus three bonus reasons, download the free PDF brochure, “13 Reasons to Attend the 2013 Social Mood Conference.”

If you would like to receive the free socionomics content each week, sign up here.

This article is syndicated by The Socionomist, a publication of the Socionomics Institute, and was originally published under the headline 13 Reasons You Should Attend the 2013 Social Mood Conference. The Socionomist is designed to help readers understand and anticipate waves of social mood. Copyright © 2013 Socionomics Institute.

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday 27 March 2013, 08:15 EST

WHOLESALE gold bullion prices fell as low as $1591 an ounce Wednesday morning, extending losses from a day earlier following news of Cyprus’s bailout as well as positive US economic data.

Data published Tuesday showed better-than-expected growth in US durable goods orders for February, as well as 8.1% year-on-year house price growth for January as measured by the Case-Shiller Indices – the strongest year-on-year house price growth since 2006.

US consumer confidence however has dipped this month, according to figures from the Conference Board.

“The [safe haven] Cyprus support is not there anymore and the US data, which on balance has been quite good today, is also being a drag for the [gold] market,” said HSBC precious metals analyst James Steel last night.

Silver hit a four-week low at $28.25 an ounce, while stock markets also sold off along with the Euro, which hit a four-month low against the Dollar.

Cypriot authorities are expected to announce details of capital controls later today, with early reports saying they limit foreign transactions but not movements of money within Cyprus.

The controls will be “very differentiated” according to a particular bank’s circumstances, finance minister Michael Sarris said yesterday, and will be in place for seven days before being reviewed.

“Our intention is to limit it as much as possible,” Sarris told the Financial Times.

“We are trying to figure out a sensible set of measures that is flexible enough to allow the functioning of the economy.”

Cyprus’s central bank said it still expects banks to reopen tomorrow with restrictions.

“If Joe Sixpack in Spain or Italy or wherever is thinking the troika are circling their country in the future, it is entirely rational, as Mervyn King suggests, to panic,” says Societe Generale analyst Albert Edwards, referring to comments the Bank of England governor once made saying that it was rational to join in a bank run once one was underway.

The governor of Malta’s central bank meantime has rejected reports that his country, along with Luxembourg, could face a similar fate to Cyprus.

“The problems facing Cypriot banks include losses made on their holdings of Greek bonds,” Josef Bonnici said, “whereas Maltese domestic banks have limited exposure to securities issued by the [Eurozone bailout] program countries.”

Yields on Spanish 10-Year government bonds ticked back above 5% this morning, while market yields on Italian bonds also rose. At an auction of Italian government debt this morning, yields on 5-Year bonds rose compared to a similar auction last month while those on 10-Year bonds fell.

Pier Luigi Bersani, whose political bloc came first in last month’s Italian elections, met with leaders of the Five Star Movement (M5S) this morning, the party that got the biggest single share of the popular vote, for talks on forming a government. M5S said it will not support a Bersani government but would “provide maximum support on specific acts”.

Bersani is expected to tell Italy’s president today or tomorrow whether or not he can form a government.

“If Bersani says he can’t form a government the mantle could pass to [former prime minister Silvio] Berlusconi or [M5S leader Beppe] Grillo to try,” says a note from Standard Bank currency analysts.

“That would probably un-nerve the markets although their ability to form a workable government would be doubtful and this route may well end up taking Italy to new elections in a very short space of time…Perhaps we should say that if Bersani manages to form a government it will be less bad than if he does not. “

Britain’s economy shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of 2012, gross domestic product figures published this morning confirmed. A second consecutive contraction registered in the current quarter would mean a so-called ‘triple-dip’ recession.

Japan’s central bank “will consider every policy option to implement effective monetary easing” its new governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Wednesday.

“There’s no going back now,” says Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan in Tokyo.

“This means they won’t think about anything else until they reach the 2% inflation target.”

Ben Traynor

BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.