Month: March 2013

By Justice Litle, www.insideinvestingdaily.com

Crude oil remains the most important commodity on the planet. Without
it, economic and political life as we know it would cease to function.

Four BIG trends will determine where prices go next:

• China’s transition to No. 1 oil importer.
• The death of Hugo Chavez.
• Iran’s distribution of Chinese-made weapons.
• New projections for the U.S. gas boom.

1) China’s transition to No. 1 oil importer

Says Javier Blas, commodities editor of the Financial Times:

China has overtaken the U.S. as the
world’s largest net importer of oil, in a generational shift that will
shake up the geopolitics of natural resources. […]

The U.S. has been the world’s largest
net importer of oil since the mid-1970s, shaping Washington’s foreign
policy towards energy-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and
Venezuela.

America is headed in the direction of energy self-sufficiency…
making slow but compounding strides to wean itself off fuel imports.
China is headed in the opposite direction. It’s becoming more dependent
on foreign oil sources to keep its economy moving.

This sea change favors America. All the talk of China having the U.S. over a fiscal barrel pales in prospect to the dragon’s growing energy vulnerability…

2) The death of “El Presidente”

With 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves, Venezuela is the
fourth-largest oil supplier to America. And yet under the reign of “El
Presidente” oil production dropped by a fifth. This was due to the
state-owned oil giant, PDVSA, falling into gross neglect and disrepair,
as Chavez turned it into an arm of the welfare state.

Chavez’s passing means new opportunity for the Western oil majors to
re-enter Venezuela, renegotiate contracts that Chavez had torn up, and
provide manpower and expertise to help get Venezuelan oil flowing faster
again. This is a longer-term geopolitical positive, but with little
impact on short- to medium-term instability.

1. The threat from Iran

Iran’s attainment of Chinese-made weapons is raising hackles. Via The New York Times:

An Iranian dhow seized off the Yemeni coast was carrying
sophisticated Chinese antiaircraft missiles, a development that could
signal an escalation of Iran’s support to its Middle Eastern proxies,
alarming other countries in the region and renewing a diplomatic
challenge to the United States.

The Middle East has long been a giant fireball in waiting. It is
becoming clearer by the day that Iran wants to strike the match…

1. America ‘s energy revolution

As The Wall Street Journal reports:

U.S. natural-gas production will
accelerate over the next three decades, new research indicates,
providing the strongest evidence yet that the energy boom remaking
America will last for a generation.

The most exhaustive study to date of a
key natural-gas field in Texas, combined with related research under
way elsewhere, shows that U.S. shale-rock formations will provide a
growing source of moderately priced natural gas through 2040, and
decline only slowly after that…

The impact of the shale gas boom will be profound — especially as
natural gas makes inroads as a transportation fuel. Major corporations
such as FedEx and Caterpillar are already investing heavily in a switch
to natural gas powered vehicles. Electric cars and hybrids are also
strong candidates for natural gas consumption, as electric power plants
are increasingly fueled by natural gas.

In fact, there are powerful incentives on every level — military,
political, economic — for the U.S. to aggressively embrace shale gas.

I’ll be recommending ways to play these big trends in future issues of my global trends newsletter Strategic Wealth Report. Each one holds the potential for once-in-a-lifetime profits for investors who position themselves wisely.

Carpe Divitiae,

Justice

By Aaron Gentzler, insideinvestingdaily.com

Two weeks ago, I revealed how two groundbreaking free education sources, www.coursera.org and www.openculture.com, could help you save $43,000 a year (the average fee a private university charges today).

And last week, I explained
why low-cost associate degrees are a smart alternative to expensive
bachelor’s degrees. (In many states, such as Tennessee and Virginia,
associate degree holders on average earn more than bachelor’s holders.
Nationwide, 30% of associate’s holders make more than those folks with
bachelor’s degrees.)

Today, I want to tell you about a very special kind of skill you
need to succeed in the job market of tomorrow… and how young folks in
your family can start building these skills today.

Charles Hugh Smith of the alternative finance blog OfTwoMinds.com
calls the most necessary skills of tomorrow “improvisational skills.”
These are skills that you now need to have because of rapid advances in
technology.

One example Smith gives in a recent post
is automated boarding pass printing at airport check-in desks. Years
ago you had to stand in line and speak to an agent. Now, you can print
your boarding pass at an automated kiosk.

These days, airport check-in staff solve problems. They don’t do the
mundane work of checking you in anymore because technology now does
that for them. Staff now help with ticket changes or process the fee
for overweight bags.

The folks who can’t build the necessary “improvisational
skills” are no longer in customer-facing jobs. And they are likely out
of a job altogether.

Similarly, the employee at the cellphone store knows you have
already compared prices and models of available phones on the Internet
before coming to the store.

She must be ready to improvise and help you find the add-ons and
accessories you’re looking for. Simply selling you a phone you already
know about is not enough.

There are three important takeaways I want you to consider.

First, the best education is a debt-free one.

Second, don’t get more education than you need. In many cases, an
associate degree gives you all you need to get on the road to a
well-paying career path.

And third, no matter what career track you… or the young folks in
your family… choose, the skills you acquire must be improvisational.

So how do you acquire improvisational skills?

After a young person identifies a clear interest using the free
education sources I’ve mentioned before, I recommend they knock on
doors and volunteer their time. This requires patience and humility…
and the ability to improvise.

I know a young man, for example, who works as a chef at a mid-level
resort restaurant. He has a two-year degree from a culinary school. Of
course, he doesn’t want to spend his life as a chef at a resort
restaurant. He wants to be a chef at a world-class restaurant.

That’s why he went to the absolute best, most highly rated
restaurant in his area and volunteered to serve as an unpaid intern to
the chef. What professional would refuse this kind of initiative?

If a student in your family wants to be a software developer… and
takes courses online for free to build their interest… volunteering
or spending time as an unpaid IT intern at a local business will put
them face to face with real people and real situations. This will help
them build not only a resume, but also the improvisational skills
they’ll need to succeed over the long term.

As you’ve seen the past three weeks, there are many ways you can
take control of your future… or help your kids take control of their
future… without relying on the broken, debt-spewing higher education
cabal.

It starts with cutting out or reducing college debt loads — by
switching to free online courses or associate degrees. But it also
involves putting yourself out into the marketplace and acquiring the
No. 1 skill employers are looking for: the ability to think on your
feet.

Best regards,

Aaron

By WallStreetDaily.com

Samsung unveiled its new Galaxy S4 smartphone in New York City on Thursday.

Is the device a game-changer? Not exactly.

But since the device will be able to run on more carriers, sales should ramp up, nonetheless.

As Kwon Sung Ryul, an analyst at Dongbu Securities, says, “There was no ‘Wow’ factor, it only proved to the world that it’s getting harder to make a difference on the hardware side… But the number of carriers that will offer Galaxy S4 has increased from that of [the] S3, so overall sales are expected to improve.”

At the same time, Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales growth last quarter was nothing to write home about. It was the slowest in more than two years.

Article By WallStreetDaily.com

Original Article: Look Out Apple, Samsung is Out for Blood

By Elliott Wave International/the Socionomics Institute

The similarities between Greece and pre-WWII Germany are striking.

• Nazi salutes.
• Praise for Adolf Hitler.
• Swastika-like banners.

Now, before you write off this warning as a run-of-the-mill, Nazi-name-dropping scare tactic, consider this recent report from the Socionomics Institute, a U.S.-based think tank that studies global trends in social mood. Here’s an excerpt from the Institute’s February publication of The Socionomist.

A rising political party known as Golden Dawn is resurrecting such practices, all hallmarks of Hitler’s Third Reich, in modern-day Greece, which has suffered a dramatic, five-year stock market decline.

 

From 1927 to 1932, Germany suffered a disastrous stock market decline, falling 73% over five years. Six million people were unemployed, and the government was weak. Germany suffered outside financial pressure in the form of reparations required by the Versailles Treaty and consequences of its involvement in World War I.

 

Adolf Hitler argued that the German government betrayed its people by signing the Versailles Treaty. He promised that if he were elected, the nation would stop paying the reparations. The position appealed to the German people’s anger and helped the Nazi leader become chancellor in January 1933.

 

Modern-day Greece has experienced an even larger five-year decline than 1920s-1930s Germany did, falling 88% since 2007, and the country has suffered a debt crisis. As a condition for bailouts aimed at helping Greece recover, the European Union has imposed tough austerity measures. The Greek government has implemented the measures. Meanwhile, the deepening negative social mood has fueled protests against them.

 

Nikos Zydakis, editor of the daily newspaper Kathimerini, says Greece is in an economic depression like that experienced by Germany in the 1930s. More than 90% of Greek households have experienced income reductions, with the average drop 38%. Unemployment in Greece now stands at a record 26.8% and is nearly 60% among Greece’s young adults. In November the Greek Parliament imposed tax hikes and spending cuts demanded by creditors. Supermarket sales in the country declined by 500 million euros ($669 million) last year, and people are burning wood because the price of electricity has risen and taxes on heating oil have increased.

 

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” goes an old saying attributed to American author Mark Twain. And new research from the Socionomics Institute sees a disturbing pattern of rhymes between modern-day Greece and pre-WWII Germany.

To be sure, market and political developments in Greece will have a significant impact on the future of Europe, the Americas and beyond.

The Socionomics Institute is an independent research firm devoted to the study of social mood and social action. As a partner to the world’s largest market forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International, the Institute puts the most important developing social trends around the world into context with Robert Prechter’s socionomic theory, which posits that social mood drives social action (not the other way around).Read the rest the Institute’s new February report to learn more about the developing threats out of Greece. The full report is available for free as part of a special promotion run by the Institute with EWI. Follow this link to read the full February issue of The Socionomist (a $19 value) – for free.

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Fri 15 Mar, 09:30 EST

GOLD ticked higher but silver prices stalled Friday morning, as a rise in Asian stock markets failed to carry over into European or pre-opening trade in US equities.

The Euro currency rose sharply through $1.30, knocking the gold price in Euros back below €1220 per ounce, virtually unchanged for the week.

Sterling gold prices slipped to £1050, some 2.3% below Tuesday’s new 4-month high.

For Dollar investors, Friday morning’s London Gold Fix came in at $1593.25 per ounce – more than $6 above yesterday afternoon’s level and the highest AM fixing in more than two weeks.

Silver achieved only a 2-day high at its London Fix on Friday, set at $28.91 per ounce.

“Given what we have seen in Libor [the interbank lending rate], we’d be foolish to assume that other benchmarks aren’t venues that deserve review,” said Bart Chilton of US regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in an email Thursday, clarifying reports that the London Fix is under investigation by US derivatives regulators.

The CFTC has not begun an investigation, but is “discussing internally” whether the global benchmark for valuing and pricing gold – a snapshot taken at 10:30am and 3pm for gold, and at midday for silver – may be open to “manipulation”, along with “energy, swaps…and the whole litany of ‘bors,” as Chilton said in testimony more than 2 weeks ago.

Back in today’s markets, “Gold prices are not being supported by the current confluence of events,” says French investment bank and bullion dealer Natixis in its latest weekly comment.

“[The] stronger Dollar predicated upon fiscal retrenchment suggests further downward pressure upon gold prices, while any move by the Fed to scale back QE3 in response to a pick-up in growth…also represents a downside risk for gold prices.”

Consumer price inflation in the US rose to 2.0% annually in Feb, new data showed today, with gasoline prices rising at the fastest pace since 2009.

“Inflation is still contained, but there’s a fear that it’s starting to rebound,” Bloomberg quotes Hideo Shimomura, chief fund investor for $63 billion in assets at Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

“Treasury yields at 2.0% show people expect improvement in the economy.”

Money markets are now pricing in 2.6% inflation, the newswire adds, the highest level of inflation expectations since September.

“The American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the unfinished Euro area crisis…all point in the same direction,” says a note from SocGen analyst Sebastien Galy – “a stronger Dollar.”

“Gold’s fate will largely ride on what direction US equity markets will take,” counters Thursday night’s note from INTL FCStone, saying that “only a sizable correction in US equities will likely prompt funds to get back into gold.”

Noting that silver investment has risen while ETF trust fund holdings in gold fell, “We find this divergence surprising given that silver investment demand tends to be closely linked to sentiment towards gold,” says Anne-Laure Tremblay, precious metals strategist at BNP Paribas.

Trimming her silver price forecast from a 2013 average of more than $34 per ounce to $31.35, “A reversal in trend is likely in the next two months if our forecast for a subdued gold price performance [also] proves correct.”

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By www.CentralBankNews.info
    Russia’s central bank held its benchmark refinancing rate steady at 8.25 percent, as expected, saying the rise in inflation was expected and poses risks while economic growth is continuing to slow down.
    The Bank of Russia, which raised its rate by 25 basis points in 2012 and is under pressure to cut rates to boost growth, warned that if inflation remains above target for a prolonged period it may affect expectations and thus poses risks, in particular in light of planned increases in the tariffs of monopolies.
    However, the central bank omitted last month’s phrase that the risk of a significant slowdown from tighter monetary conditions were considered minor, indicating a slightly less hawkish stance.
    Russia’s inflation continued to climb in February, hitting an 18-month high of 7.3 percent, up from January’s 7.1 percent.
    The central bank repeated that it expects inflation to exceed its 5-6 percent target in the first half of 2013 due to higher food prices and certain regulated prices.
     In 2012 prices rose 5.1 percent and the central bank targets 4-5 percent inflation in 2014.

     The Bank’s Chairman Sergey Ignatiev has lead a dogged campaign against inflation which started accelerating in mid-2012 after easing in the second half of 2011. Ignatiev is retiring in June and is being replaced by Elvira Nabiullina, economic aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
    “The dynamics of the key macroeconomic indicators in January 2013 point to a continuing slowdown in economic growth,” the central bank said, adding that investment in productive capacity was subdued, retail sales decelerated and industrial output decreased.
    At the same time, economic confidence remains positive and labor market conditions, along with credit expansion, is providing support to domestic demand, the bank added.
     Russia’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.6 percent in the third quarter from the second for annual growth of 2.9 percent, down from the second quarter’s 4.0 percent rate. In 2012 the economy expanded by 3.4 percent.
     It is the weakest growth rate since 2010 and economists expect the bank to start cutting rates after inflation begins to ease over the next few months.
    The appointment of a Putin ally as new bank president has further stoked these expectations with some economists expecting the bank to cut rates sooner rather than later.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By Matt Michaels

More and more businesses are now expanding their operations into the digital world. And there has always been a need for virtual currencies and online transaction systems like Paypal. To answer this demand, bitcoin a type of digital currency that is accessible on the Internet, and can be used wherever you are. Bitcoin is a crypto-currency which uses peer-to-peer (P2P) technology. This allows it to operate without the need of a central authority. The maximum amount of bitcoins in the market at a single time is 21 million units and new bitcoins are produced at a diminishing rate. This ensures that existing bitcoins have value in today’s market.

By using peer-to-peer (P2P) systems, bitcoin eliminates the requirement for a third party to enable transactions between a buyer and a seller. Therefore, bitcoins will allow you to save in terms of transaction expenses. A majority of online transaction systems like Paypal charge a certain fee for each transaction. For individuals and businesses that carry out huge amounts of online transactions, bitcoins is a good way to help you reduce total costs. Besides that, the bitcoin currency is decentralized. This essentially means that the currency is not controlled by any oversight body or authorities. This means that bitcoins are not suppressed and controlled unlike the printing and distribution of real currencies which are controlled by the Government.

To use bitcoins, the first thing you need is an online bitcoin wallet. You will need an e-wallet to store your bitcoins as it is a virtual currency. There are many websites that provide users with free bitcoin wallets – like My Wallet from blockchain.info. To get started with the bitcoin system, all you need to do is visit one of these websites and sign up for a bitcoin wallet with the website. After that, you are all set to go. Bitcoin wallets can also be accessible using your smartphone through various mobile applications. This allows you to make online transactions, even when you are away from your computer.

To enhance the security of your bitcoin wallet, you might want to download and use a reliable desktop client. These clients help you to store bitcoin transactions onto your computer. Always remember to back up and save your transactions onto your client from time to time. This ensures that your money is safe, even if your smartphone gets stolen or your computer breaks down. Most users download the Satoshi Client for this purpose as it is a reliable and reputable software.

Once you have your wallet set up, you can begin to transacting with bitcoins. There are many ways for you to earn bitcoins. Firstly, you can purchase bitcoins from different online sellers. You can also receive it from carrying out business transactions. And if you have the time, you can gain free bitcoins by completing simple tasks like surveys, or you can do bitcoin mining to ‘dig out’ unfound bitcoins. Despite being relatively new to the market, many companies and individuals are now accepting bitcoins as a form of payment. If you think that bitcoin is able to help you grow your business, you should get started right away by creating an e-wallet.

About the Author

Are you looking for more information regarding Bitcoin? Visit http://blockchain.info/wallet today!

By www.CentralBankNews.info

USDCHF’s upward movement from 0.9021 extends to as high as 0.9567. Key support is located at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line support holds, the fall from 0.9567 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend, another rise to 0.9600 area is still possible after consolidation. On the downside, a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that a cycle top has been formed at 0.9567, and the uptrend from 0.9021 has completed, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 0.8500 zone.

Daily Forex Analysis

By MoneyMorning.com.au

In yesterday’s Money Morning, Murray noted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had clocked up gains for the past nine trading days. It was the best winning streak since 1996.

Well, last night the Dow went one better. It’s now 10 straight days of gains.

What does that mean? Is it something or nothing?

Look, Murray’s game is technical analysis. It involves studying charts and working out the probability of an event happening. You can check out Murray’s latest analysis and where he thinks the market is heading here.

This analysis played a big part in the trades he has recommended on the big Aussie resource stocks and Aussie banks.

And if one of Murray’s favourite indicators is anything to go by, it may not be long before the Dow’s glory streak comes to an end…

As you may know, your editor isn’t much chop when it comes to technical analysis.

In fact, until we first met Murray nearly six years ago, we didn’t give technical analysis the time of day. It really was just squiggly lines and a lot of what we considered ‘Hindsight Harry’ analysis.

But after just half an hour of sitting with Murray and him explaining how he interprets the stock markets…well, it was as though we’d found the Rosetta Stone of technical analysis.

And we’re not kidding either.

Most share traders see a new high (or low) as a signal to join the momentum. The old saying is ‘the trend is your friend’.

But Murray takes the opposite view. When he sees a stock or index hitting a significant high or low, it rings alarm bells.

For Murray, a new high (or low) is a potential turning point. It’s where investors should look to bet against the trend.

But that doesn’t always mean jumping in straight away.

The breakthrough point is only part of Murray’s analysis. It’s what Murray commonly refers to as a ‘false break’. That’s where most traders believe the market will surge to a higher high.

However, instead of the market surging higher, what frequently happens is that it breaks through and then shortly afterwards does a complete reversal, heading back the other way.

This is a set-up that’s starting to take shape in one of the world’s most well known stock indexes…

Not Everyone Has The Dow Jones Going Higher

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently hit an all-time high. It has led some commentators to say the index will go even higher.

But not everyone is convinced.

For instance, if you look at one of Murray’s favourite indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it’s potentially telling a different story.

The RSI is just one of the indicators Murray uses to judge the probability of the market’s future direction.

Specifically, Murray looks for a key behaviour in the RSI…that isn’t what most people use it for.

Put simply, the RSI indicates when a stock or index appears to be under- or over-bought. However, the key word is relative. Just because the index is at a high point today (meaning overbought), doesn’t mean it can’t go even higher tomorrow.

Murray’s analysis involves looking for a particular set-up in the relationship between the stock or index price and the RSI. Namely, he looks for instances where the stock or index remains at a high point (if he’s looking to short sell) but where the RSI is falling.

This alerts Murray to a potential directional change in the price.

Understand that this is only one part of his analysis. He uses other indicators plus fundamental analysis to form a view on whether a stock or index is a buy or sell.

But right now an interesting set-up is taking place with the Dow Jones Industrial Average as it trades above the old 2007 high. You can see this on the chart:

Click here to enlarge

As you can see, the RSI (lower chart) is currently in overbought territory, while the index remains high. So right now, this wouldn’t trigger a short selling opportunity for Murray.

But, when or if the RSI starts going lower, that’s when Murray would combine this analysis with the other indicators he uses, and his fundamental analysis, to decide if the potential reward outweighs the risk of taking on the trade.

It’s also important to note that the falling RSI can pre-empt the falling index by several months – as happened from early to mid 2011.

That’s where other indicators can help with the timing of a trade.

But whatever happens, the US market is at a key level. Whether the market will keep rising or begin to fall is anyone’s guess. But it’s worth keeping an eye on this indicator over the coming weeks.

Cheers,
Kris
Join me on Google+

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: Australia’s Energy Stock BLOWOUT

Daily Reckoning: A Crazy Warning Sign for BHP and CBA Shareholders

Money Morning: Three Banking and Retirement Scams To Look Out For

Pursuit of Happiness: Freelance Investigator Takes on the Australian Mortgage Industry

From the Archives…

Why the Stock Market Boom is on Pause
8-03-2013 – Kris Sayce

Why the Dow Jones Record High Doesn’t Matter
7-03-2013 – Murray Dawes

Taking China’s Economic Pulse from Hong Kong
6-03-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

Buy Gold When They’re Crying…Sell Gold When They’re Yelling
5-03-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

Do You Want to Be Right About Investing, or Do You Want to Make Money?
4-03-2013 – Kris Sayce