By CountingPips.com
The latest weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders added to their bullish bets in favor of the US dollar for a fifth consecutive week last week. The bets for American currency continue to be at the highest overall long position since July 17th 2012, according to Reuters research.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, registered an overall US dollar long position of $25.46 billion as of Tuesday March 12th. This was an increase from a total long position of $23.57 billion that was registered on Tuesday March 5th, according to the CFTC’s COT data and trader position calculations by Reuters, which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Futures Positions:
The individual currency contracts quoted directly against the US dollar last week saw increases for the euro, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso while the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc had a declining number of net contracts compared to the previous week.
Individual Currency Charts:
EuroFX:
EuroFX: Large trader and speculator sentiment for the euro improved slightly last week after declining for four consecutive weeks. Euro contracts edged up to a total net position of -24,787 contracts in the data reported for March 12th following the previous week’s total of -26,116 net contracts on March 5th. This is a change of +1,329 contracts from the previous week.
Euro spec positions, two weeks ago on March 5th, were at their lowest level so far in 2013 and the lowest standing since December 11th 2012 when positions stood at -31,623 contracts before last week’s turnaround. EuroFx speculative contracts have now been in bearish territory for three weeks running.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 213,113
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -24,787
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +35,920
Small Traders Net Positions: -11,133
Great Britain Pound:
GBP: British pound sterling spec positions continued to decline last week for an eighth consecutive week and fell to their lowest standing since October 2011. British pound speculative positions decreased to a total of -49,800 net contracts on March 12th following a total of -43,849 net contracts that were reported on March 5th. This was a weekly change of -5,951 large trader contracts.
Pound speculator positions have now been in a bearish position for five straight weeks since crossing over on February 5th and are at the lowest level since October 25th 2011 when positions equaled -50,147 contracts.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 297,130
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -49,800
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +82,484
Small Traders Net Positions: -32,684
Japanese Yen:
JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts decreased sharply last week to decline to the lowest level since December. Japanese yen positions dropped to a total of -93,763 net contracts reported on March 12th following a total of -73,351 net short contracts on March 5th. This is a weekly decrease of -20,412 positions from the prior week.
Yen positions are at their lowest point since December 11th 2012 when short positions equaled -94,401 contracts.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 288,474
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -93,763
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +133,865
Small Traders Net Positions: -40,102
Swiss Franc:
CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions continued to descend last week for a fourth consecutive week and are at the lowest level since August 2012. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures dropped to a total of -13,488 contracts on March 12th following a total of -11,450 net contracts reported for March 5th. This is a weekly change of -2,038 from the previous week.
Swiss franc net positions have now been on the short side for four straight weeks and are at the lowest level since August 21st 2012 when positions totaled -15,662 contracts.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 69,408
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -13,488
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +26,175
Small Traders Net Positions: -12,687
Canadian Dollar:
CAD: Canadian dollar positions declined lower once again last week to decrease for an eighth consecutive week and to the lowest level since before 2010. Canadian dollar positions fell to a total of -53,397 contracts as of March 12th following a total of -46,663 net contracts that were reported for March 5th. This is a weekly change of -6,734 net contracts following a sharp weekly change of -25,230 the previous week.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 249,150
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: -53,397
Commercial Traders Net Positions: +67,665
Small Traders Net Positions: -14,268
Australian Dollar:
AUD: The Australian dollar rebounded last week after decreasing for the previous six consecutive weeks. Aussie speculative futures positions rose to a total net amount of +23,266 contracts on March 12th after totaling +7,149 net contracts as of March 5th. This is a weekly change of +16,117 in net positions following the previous week’s -18,546 change.
Australian dollar contracts, on March 5th, were at their lowest level since June 26, 2012 when positions equaled just -2,159 contracts.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 183,095
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: +23,266
Commercial Traders Net Positions: -23,311
Small Traders Net Positions: +45
New Zealand Dollar:
NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions increased slightly last week following declines for two consecutive weeks. NZD contracts rose to a total of +19,350 net long contracts as of March 12th following a total of +19,044 net long contracts on March 5th. This constitutes a weekly change of +306 net contracts to March 12th.
The New Zealand dollar positions have stayed above the +19,000 contracts threshold for ten consecutive weeks.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 32,813
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: +19,350
Commercial Traders Net Positions: -20,431
Small Traders Net Positions: +1,081
Mexican Peso:
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts rebounded last week after falling for seven straight weeks. Peso positions increased to a total of +113,770 net speculative positions as of March 12th following a total of +93,521 contracts that were reported for March 5th. This is a weekly change in net large peso speculator positions of +20,249 contracts.
Peso speculative positions are now back over the +100,000 threshold after falling under this level on March 5th for the first time since November 27th 2012.
March 12th 2013 Cot Report Data
Total Open Interest: 192,764
Non-Commerical Large Traders Net Positions: +113,770
Commercial Traders Net Positions: -122,739
Small Traders Net Positions: +8,969
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Market Analysis
