Central Bank News Link List – Feb. 25, 2013: Abe to nominate ADB chief Kuroda as BOJ chief, Iwata as deputy

By www.CentralBankNews.info Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

Investment Trends in India

By Harjeet

India has grown as one of the significant economies in the world having immense potential for long-term growth. Indian economy is developing at a faster pace and is brimming with investment opportunities. As per McKinsey Global Institute, the average Indian’s income will triple by 2025. This will result in more investment in the coming years.

India: Investment Potential

According to UNCTAD’s World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-2012, India is the second-most profitable destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world. Indian markets have significant potential offering prospects of high profitability and a favorable regulatory regime for investors.

Investment for saving purpose in future is certainly a good idea. There are large numbers of companies that offer plenty of opportunities for different individuals. India with a matured capital market, backed by liberal policies and strong banking system has turned to a profitable business ambience both for domestic and international businessmen.

Entry strategies for global investors in India

The various entry strategies for foreign investors in India have helped to bring in huge amounts of FDI into India. Some of the investment strategies initiated by Indian government are:

  • A foreign company can start its operations in the country by setting up a new company according to the Companies Act 1956. The foreign direct investment of 100 per cent has been allowed by the Government of India in such companies.
  • An international company can start its operations in India by forming joint collaboration with an Indian company.
  • An international company can start its operations in India by setting up their branch office, representative office, and project office.
  • A foreign company can start its operations in India by establishing a wholly owned subsidiary in the sectors, where foreign direct investment up to 100 per cent is permitted under the FDI policy.

Areas of Investment

The scope for business in India is enormous and has led to more investment options in India. Some key areas like infrastructure, petrochemicals, power, automobile, electronic hardware, etc. are receiving attention not only for foreign but for domestic ventures also.

Further, there are various exciting opportunities for conducting business in India, especially, for entrepreneurs dealing in outsourcing technology, internet ventures, software development, e-commerce, etc. People can also find a niche market in India where they can sell various products like health care products.

Major initiatives in India

There are various initiatives taken in India that provide a liberal and investor friendly environment:

  • Simplified investment procedures
  • Liberalised trade policy and exchange regulations
  • Intellectual property rights
  • Enactment of competition law
  • Financial sector reforms

There is no dearth of investment options in India after the investment under the automatic route has been allowed by the Government. The Government has also revised its policy regarding FDI in Indian companies engaged in retail trade. Foreign investors will now be permitted, subject to certain conditions, to own up to 100 per cent of single-brand retail trading companies in India.

About the Author

Harjeet is an Indian – born mass-market novelist, who covers the world internet related topics. He writes columns and articles for various websites and internet journals in the domain of Investments and Investing in India.

 

Gold Uptrend “Could See Significant Damage”, Recent Falls “Largely Down to Futures Traders”

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 25 February 2013, 07:30 EST

U.S. DOLLAR gold prices climbed back above $1590 an ounce Monday morning, extending gains from Friday following sharp losses last week, while stock markets also rallied, although the FTSE 100 in London saw smaller gains that other European indexes following news of a downgrade to Britain’s credit rating.

“Support [for gold] sits at $1522, the low from December 2011,” says the latest technical analysis from Scotia Mocatta.

“A break of that level will do significant damage to the long-term uptrend.”

Last week’s gold price fall was “largely due to the futures market”, according to one analyst.

The gross short position held by speculative traders in gold futures and options on the Comex has neared or exceeded 60,000 contracts only five times before in the last eight years. On these occasions the average six-month change in the gold price, according to analysis by BullionVault today, has then been a gain of more than 28%.

Silver meantime climbed back above $29 an ounce Monday morning, as other industrial commodities also gained and US Treasuries fell.

On the currency markets the Pound fell to its lowest level since July 2010 against the Dollar this morning, dropping more than 1% from Friday’s close before recovering some ground as the morning went on, as markets reacted to ratings agency Moody’s decision late Friday to strip the UK of its Aaa credit rating.

“The downgrade was expected and priced into credit markets,” says a note from Morgan Stanley.

“Hence, we expect only a limited currency response in the short term.”

The Sterling gold price ticked back above £1050 an ounce for the first time in just over a week this morning.

The Yen meantime fell to a 33-month low against the Dollar at the start of Monday’s Asian trading, following reports that Japan’s government is set to nominate Asian Development Bank president Haruhiko Kuroda as governor of the Bank of Japan.

“Kuroda is a fan of a weaker Yen and of deflation bashing,” explains Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes in London.

The government is also reported to be planning to nominate university professor Kikuo Iwata as one of Kuroda’s deputies.

“Perhaps thanks to the inclusion of Iwata the market will expect more eye-catching bold easing measures,” says Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo.

The world’s biggest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD) saw a further 9.6 tonnes in outflows Friday. Over the whole of last week, the volume of gold held to back GLD shares fell 3.2% to 1280.7 tonnes.

The world’s biggest silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (ticker: SLV) by contrast saw its bullion holdings grow by 0.8% to 10,602.8 tonnes.

The amount of gold held by all exchange traded funds tracked by Bloomberg saw its biggest weekly drop since August 2011 last week, falling to a five-month low of just over 2560 tonnes.

“Market participants appear cautious after last week’s sharp sell-off,” says Nick Trevethan, senior commodities strategist at ANZ.

“While we have downgraded our near-term views, gold prices should accelerate in the second half [of 2013] on improving demand from India and China.”

Indian gold industry insiders will be watching for any further measures aimed at reducing bullion imports in this Thursday’s budget, after India hiked import duties on gold to 6% last month.

“Suppose you take the worst case scenario and the government completely bans the import of gold.

Do you think that Indian people would stop buying gold?” asks Prithviraj Kothari, director at
Riddhi Sidhi Bullions in Mumbai, adding that such a move would increase demand for smuggled gold.

India is traditionally the world’s biggest gold buying nation, a position it held in 2012 according to the most recent World Gold Council data, and has to rely heavily on imports, which contribute to its trade deficit.

A report published by India’s central bank earlier this month suggests encouraging people to invest in gold-linked financial products rather than buy gold outright as one of way of reducing the reliance on gold imports. Seeking to increase the amount of gold people deposit with banks was another proposal.

“The government should come out with a voluntary gold deposit program where it won’t ask any questions about the source of gold, and offer an annual interest rate to depositors,” suggests Bachhraj Bamalwa, president of the All India Gems & Jewellery Federation.

Kazakhstan and Russia meantime both added to their gold reserves last month for the fourth month running, according to International Monetary Fund data, while Azerbaijan bought gold for the first time in a decade.

Monday sees the second day of voting in Italy’s general election, with newswire Reuters reporting a “surge in protest votes” for parties such as the Five Star Movement led by comedian Beppe Grillo.

“There are similarities between the Italian elections and last year’s ones in Greece, in that pro-euro parties are losing ground in favor of populist forces,” says Riccardo Barbieri, chief economist at Mizuho International in London.

“An angry and confused public opinion does not see the benefits of fiscal austerity and does not trust established political parties.”

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

China Bull Versus China Bear – There Can Only Be One Winner

By MoneyMorning.com.au

No punches have been thrown in the office…yet.

It might not be long though. This China bull is taking on the office’s most devout China bear, Greg Canavan, in a war of words that’s on the verge of getting out of hand.


One of our colleagues suggested we dress up in bull and bear outfits, and just have it out on the streets here in St Kilda. He helped support his idea with some photo-shopped pictures of yours truly and Greg:

Source: Ninjali Design

What do you reckon?

Funny thing is, fighting in fluffy animal costumes in the streets of St Kilda actually wouldn’t raise many eyebrows. In fact, we’d probably make some money from hipster passers-by for our ‘street performance’.

But looking past the cute pictures, I want to emphasise that there’s a serious message here.

This starkly divided opinion in this usually united office is symptomatic of something – China’s economy is at a critical crossroads.

This is of paramount importance because which way China turns makes now either time to sell resource stocks and run for the hills as Greg instructs; or as I believe, it makes right now the best time in more than five years to buy resource stocks

China bears are a bit overconfident right now, after having loads of mud to sling at us for the last two years.

You see, since the start of 2011, China’s growth decelerated steadily from 9.8% down to 7.4%.

‘Crashing Chinese growth’ has been the China bears battle cry!

Trouble is that neatly overlooks the fact that 7.4% is still a nitrous-oxide type growth rate!

To put 7.4% in context, it doubles an economy’s size inside of a decade. It’s fast. It also makes China’s growth by far the fastest growth rate in any large country globally. You have to start looking at tiddlers like Thailand (twenty times smaller than China) to find faster growth.

But it was the deceleration of growth that has the bears fired up. Would it continue and take China down in flames?

Short answer: no.

Bullish on China: Here’s Why

Over the last few months of 2012 (as far as I could see) it was obvious China was building for a solid bounce in economic growth. It was time to get bullish on industrial commodity stocks again. That’s why I started 2013 with a copper producer for Diggers and Drillers readers.

Sure enough, when China released its GDP data a week later, it showed a meaningful jump from 7.4% to 7.9% growth.

China’s Growth on the Way Back Up Again – Copper, Iron Ore and Coal to Boom

China's Growth on the Way Back Up Again - Copper, Iron Ore and Coal to Boom

Of course, one stubby does not a slab make. We need a few more quarters to confirm this trend. But by then, the trading opportunity will be gone, so where do we look?

The ‘Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)’ are one place.

Between the official and HSBC versions of this index, they survey 1250 ‘purchasing managers’ in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Businesses react to the market rapidly, and the purchasing manager has the best view and feel of the economic conditions.

It’s a ‘leading indicator’ of the economy. As such, it’s usually a pretty reliable guide of what the GDP will be for the quarter. And right now the PMI’s have been in positive territory for their last four monthly releases.

Of course, the only problem with trading on an official PMI, or GDP figure, is that they are government statistics. And as they say, there are lies, damn lies, and government statistics. Thing is there’s also an even worse category, called Chinese government statistics. So we watch them, but take them with a pinch of salt or three.

But if Greg pinned me down to give him one reason why I was so bullish on China at this moment, it actually wouldn’t be the statistics.

The reason would be that in November 2012 China wrapped up the main parts of its once-in-a-decade leadership transition.

In short, this will be one of the major drivers of the commodity markets in 2013.

In my eyes, it’s an investing opportunity that you can either grab now, or kick yourself for at Christmas for missing the trade of the year.

The reason I say this is that, like clockwork, this leadership transition has unleashed a wave of infrastructure spending. This chart shows how this has jumped EVERY time in the last thirty years. The years after 1982, 1992, and 2002 ALL saw a huge move without fail.

Buckle Up for Huge Chinese Spending

Buckle Up for Huge Chinese Spending

Source: FT

The reason being that Chinese politicians have their hands tied until the transition passes, so once it’s in the bag, they play catch up on projects. Besides, they are smack in the middle of an ambitious five-year plan of spending targets and they need to pick up the pace to get there.

So I expected a dam-burst of infrastructure spending to be unleashed in early 2013. And that would drive commodity demand as project development growth moves up the gears again.

We had a clear signal of this in China’s credit figures for January.

After treading water for most of last year waiting for the leadership transition, the flood gates of lending have opened.

The ‘total social financing aggregate’, which is China’s most comprehensive measure of lending, has jumped from around one trillion Yuan a month, to 2.5 trillion a month.

China’s Lending Explodes: Total Social Financing Aggregate Soars to 2.5 trillion

Buckle Up for Huge Chinese Spending

Source: Bloomberg

Now China bears will probably be tearing their hair out at this point. Their beef is that this is a clear warning sign of a credit bubble.

This is the core of where the bulls and bears differ. Where the bears see this lending as a reason to run and take cover, I see it as a precursor to immense Chinese growth.

To me, the crux of this chart is that this lending will translate straight into demand for the raw ingredients of an economy: iron ore, copper, coking coal, and the scores of more obscure raw ingredients like manganese, tin or rhodium. Not to mention indirectly to demand for gold – one of the things Greg and I can agree on.

Some Words of Wisdom

But what about the idea that I’m overlooking the fact that half of China’s GDP figure is from lending what could become bad loans that will cripple the banking sector?

There’s no denying China has taken investment spending to nosebleed levels, and that it will need to unleash the value for the bets to pay off. But I’m more optimistic than the China bears on this happening, and thus preventing non performing loans from rocking the system.

And I’m also more optimistic on China’s ability to stretch and rewrite the rules to enable payment, and to use the raw power of urbanisation and also rising land prices to pay off debts. But that’s a story for tomorrow’s Money Morning.

In the meantime, don’t forget to check out our free Google plus pages. We’ve already served up a few exchanges on the bull and bear China debate. Check it out.

And even if I’m wrong on all counts, you can be very comfortable that even if a credit bubble bursts – China will pull rabbit after rabbit out of the hat to delay it.

I’m not denying that the China bears could even get it right in the end. We’ll see. In the meantime, investors have any number of years in which to make money from the resource sector as this young resource rally builds steam again after its two-year sell off.

A hugely successful retired fund manager summed it up for me recently by saying, ‘Any punter on the street can always tell you twenty reasons to avoid the market – the trick is to spot the opportunities amongst the chaos, and then nimbly monetise them while the bears tie themselves up with thoughts of impending doom.’

Enough said.

Dr Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

Join me on Google Plus
From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

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Why Italy Will Force the Next Move in the Currency War

By MoneyMorning.com.au

It’s safe to say that there aren’t many politicians with the staying power of Silvio Berlusconi. Less than four months ago, he was sentenced to a year in jail for tax fraud. And he still faces other criminal charges. Yet the polls still suggest that there’s an astonishingly good chance that the former prime minister will actually win next week’s election in Italy.

This is clearly amusing in its own way – given how many people breathed a sigh of relief when it looked like jail might be the end of ‘bunga bunga Berlusconi’ as a political force. But it also comes with some very unfunny implications.

Everyone knows that Berlusconi isn’t that into either the European Union or into the austerity apparently required to keep it together. So, as his poll ratings are surging, so are Italian bond yields: they have hit levels not seen since the end of last year. That’s not a good thing.

The End of Monti’s Dreams

Back in November 2011, it looked as if Italy – with its huge deficits and clear unwillingness to reform – was on its way out of the euro. To make it possible to ‘save’ Italy, Brussels made it clear that Berlusconi had to go. He did. And in his place came the technocrat and Brussels man Mario Monti, a former commissioner.

The idea was that his non-partisan status and close relationship with Brussels would help him pass reforms, cut spending and stop Italy being the catalyst for European collapse.

This was undemocratic stuff (which is also not a good thing). So, at the time, Monti promised that he was nothing but a concerned caretaker – one who had no intention of running for re-election. In reality, there were hopes that the major parties would allow him to stay on as prime minister without having to face voters.

Things got off to an adequate start. There was much PR put out about the basic strength of Italy (and it is true by the way, that the average Italian household is less stretched than, say, the average Spanish household).

And there was some small success in pushing business and labour-market reform. However, along with reform came tax rises and rising unemployment. That didn’t go down well at all. The result? A new movement – ‘Five Star’ – surged in the polls demanding an end to austerity. It became clear that Mr Monti was not going to be re-elected by default.

That was clearly disappointing for him. Once you have had a taste of power, it is tough to give it up. So at the end of last year, Monti changed his mind and decided to run for office as part of a group of parties called ‘With Monti in Italy’.

It isn’t going that well. Polls currently show their support running at around 13%. That puts them fourth. And the candidates in first, second and third place? They are all anti-austerity.

Italy Has a Long Way to Go

The obvious take away from this is that, even if Berlusconi himself doesn’t win, the next government isn’t going to be doing what Brussels wants it to.

That sounds bad but the truth is that even if a new government wanted to stick with the status quo, it’s hard to see how it could. Without real inflation or external devaluation to speed the process up, the pace of change is simply too slow.

Take wages. To be able to compete with Germany, Italy needs to cut its unit labour costs. However, relying on firms to directly cut wages has had little effect. While Italian wages are now coming down, they are only doing so slowly.

Italy is still less competitive than Greece, Ireland and Spain – so much so that Capital Economics reckons wages will need to fall by a further 15% to 20% for the crisis to be of much use to Italy’s corporate sector.

The Big Choice Ahead

The key point is that the next Italian government is going to be neither willing nor able to dabble in austerity and reform while waiting for things to resolve themselves. So what’s going to happen?

You might think the best thing would be for Italy to get on and leave the euro. A new lira would fall in value and that would cut real wages via imported inflation. Italy would be competitive, exports would rise, debt would fall. Job done.

If only it were so easy. After all, were this simply a question of economics, the euro would be long dead. The more likely solution is another attempt to smooth over the cracks with more quantitative easing (QE) from Brussels.

We have long predicted that, when push comes to shove (as it often seems to these days), the European Central Bank (ECB) is willing to do anything to keep the single currency together. So far, that’s been the correct assumption to make.

In any case, world events are also forcing Mario Draghi’s hand. Japan’s new inflation target, the Fed’s open-ended QE and the decision to appoint Mark Carney as head of the Bank of England, risks leaving Brussels with an overvalued euro – Robert Jukes, global strategist at Collins Stewart Wealth Management, thinks that the euro is overpriced against the dollar by not far off 20%.

This means that unless the ECB wants exports to collapse (something Germany’s many manufacturers clearly don’t fancy), it is going to have to throw itself into the currency wars.

So how should you play this? QE is good for equities (albeit in a bad way) and falling currencies are good for equities too. So the best way is probably the usual way – buy into Europe’s stock markets.

Matthew Partridge
Contributing Writer, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek
Join Money Morning on Google+

From the Archives…

The Biggest Crisis to Hit the Stock Market Since the Last One
22-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

My Wife and Warren Buffett
21-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

How a Share Trader Approaches the Market
20-02-2013 – Murray Dawes

The Poster-Child for the US Shale Gas Revolution
19-02-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Two-Dimensional Diamond That’s Set to Turn Your World Upside Down
18-02-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Is Hyperinflation Heading Our Way?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Back in 2008, some 80% of people living in Zimbabwe replied ‘yes’ when asked if there had been times in the last twelve months when ‘you did not have enough money to buy food that you or your family needed.’

That was just one of the deeply unpleasant consequences of Robert Mugabe’s shockingly awful economic policies and the hyperinflationary meltdown they resulted in.

As some of the world’s biggest countries continue to print money, the question is could we be heading the same way?

Did We Learn Anything from Zimbabwe?

Things are better now in Zimbabwe. In 2009, the local currency (by then denominated in trillions) was abolished, the US dollar took over as the most used currency, and by 2011, a miserable but improved number of people (39%) said they were going hungry.

But even as Zimbabwe’s economy slowly pulls itself together, a good many people in the West think we have been too slow to learn the lessons it should have been teaching. I have several worthless Zimbabwean bank notes. I also have several left over from the miseries of the Weimar Republic.

They’ve all been generously given to me by people who think that the current rounds of money printing in the US, the UK, Japan and Europe will eventually lead to very high (and then to hyper-) inflation (hyperinflation being officially defined as price rises of 50% plus a month).

Maybe we have nothing to fear.

James Montier of GMO – a strategist we have a lot of time for – thinks these people are nuts. Why? Because a huge rise in the money supply is not enough to cause hyperinflation.

The basic theory of monetary hyperinflation suggests that it tends to start with a government with a deficit. That government then prints money to keep its debts under control. Prices rise.

People lose confidence in money (it’s important to bear in mind that money is simply a function of trust) and spend it as soon as they get it. The velocity of money rises. Prices rise. The velocity of money rises again. And so on and so on.

But as far as Montier is concerned (if I understand him correctly), a rising supply of money, while a necessary condition for hyperinflation is not in itself enough.

For that you need other things – a nasty supply shock (Zimbabwe had this with the collapse of its agricultural sector), a high level of debt in a foreign currency, or a transmission mechanism that allows wages to rise faster than prices – indexation of wages to prices perhaps.

The point is that hyperinflation isn’t just a monetary phenomenon – it needs social and economic stresses to really get it going. To think otherwise, says Montier, is ‘bordering on the simple minded.’

I don’t disagree with this. As I said here last year, stable countries with liberal and diverse political institutions should be capable of preventing monetary crises.

The West is Not as Stable as You Think

But the problem is that a good many of the countries we think of as being stable are nothing of the sort – or well on the way to becoming nothing of the sort.

There have been 57 properly documented hyperinflations since 1795, and the very fact that they can be officially proven rather suggests that they started in countries that were not far from having solid institutions filled with respectable number crunchers themselves (we have, of course, no idea how many undocumented hyperinflations there have been).

Take Europe. The brilliant Bernard Connolly’s views on the extremism and social unrest that will bring Europe down are absolutely relevant.

As he points out, opposition to the euro ‘has moved into the mainstream in Italy,’ and if Silvio Berlusconi ends up the driving force behind the next government, it is very hard to see an end game that doesn’t come with chaos.

Even Montier notes that if you were to worry about hyperinflation (which he doesn’t), you might want to note that this is just the sort of thing that causes it: ‘the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Yugoslavia, and the Soviet Union all led to the emergence of hyperinflation!’

One Central Bank Has Given Up

It is also worth noting that while hyperinflation might not be top of our immediate forecast list for the UK, high inflation is.

The Bank of England is no longer even bothering to pretend that it is going to have a go at hitting its inflation target over the next few years – and that’s even before Mark Carney (Albert Edwards suggests we call him ‘Chopper Carney’) has found a house to rent in London.

So, the pound is falling, inflation is rising (and will rise further given the hit the pound has taken in the last week) and no one is going to do anything about it.

Why? Because, despite the fact that falling real wages (prices are going up faster than earnings) and negative real interest rates (you get less in interest on your deposit account than you lose to inflation) are surely hitting consumption, and despite the fact that high inflation would destroy the gilt market, ‘attempting to bring inflation back to target sooner would risk derailing the economy.’

So much for the idea that the Bank’s principle objective is to maintain price stability.

Merryn Somerset Webb
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek
Join Money Morning on Google+
From the Archives…

The Biggest Crisis to Hit the Stock Market Since the Last One
22-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

My Wife and Warren Buffett
21-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

How a Share Trader Approaches the Market
20-02-2013 – Murray Dawes

The Poster-Child for the US Shale Gas Revolution
19-02-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Two-Dimensional Diamond That’s Set to Turn Your World Upside Down
18-02-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie

GOLD should be completing a cyclical low in February

David A. Banister – www.markettrendforecast.com

Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February.  My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month.  With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?

First let’s examine the last 5 years and you can see how I noted tops and bottoms in the chart below:

ATP1

That brings us forward to todays $1,573 spot pricing and trying to determine where the next move will go. To help with that end, some of our work centers on Elliott Wave Theory, along with fundamentals and traditional technical patterns of course.  In this case, the recent action around Gold has been very difficult to ascertain, and I will be the first to admit as much.  With that said, one pattern we can surmise is a rare pattern Elliott termed the “Double Three” pattern.  Essentially you have two ABC type moves, and in the middle what is dubbed an “X” wave, which breaks up the ABC’s on each end of the pattern.  For sure, if we add in traditional technical indicators along with sentiment, we can see very oversold levels coupled with the potential Double Three pattern and probably start getting long here for a trade back to the 1650’s as possible:

ATP2

Obviously this chart shows oversold readings in the lower right corner using the CCI indicator. That said we would like to see 1550 hold on a weekly closing basis to remain optimistic for a strong rebound.

About the Author

David A. Banister

Consider our free weekly reports by going to www.markettrendforecast.com

 

AUDUSD moves sideways between 1.0220 and 1.0373

AUDUSD moves sideways in a trading range between 1.0220 and 1.0373. Key resistance is now located at 1.0373, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.0597, and one more fall towards 1.0000 is still possible after consolidation. However, a break above 1.0373 will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.0220 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.0700 zone.

audusd

Forex Signals

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Feb. 23, 2013: Global policy still loose as 2 of 4 ease, but shift to neutral nearing

By www.CentralBankNews.info

    Last week four central banks took monetary policy decisions with two banks (Turkey and Colombia) taking further steps to ease their stance while the other two (Thailand and Namibia) kept rates on hold, illustrating how monetary policy on a global scale remains accommodative despite fresh signs that the cycle of loose policy is nearing its end.
    Ultra-low interest rates in advanced economies continues to push funds toward higher yielding yet safe currencies, such as Turkey and Thailand, with Turkey’s central bank drawing on its arsenal to prevent capital inflows from boosting its currency and domestic assets while the economy is weak.
    But the main focus of last week was the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its January meeting that showcased the intensifying debate over how and when the Fed should exit from quantitative easing.
    While there is no doubt of the Fed’s commitment to easy money and questions over the economic impact of its latest asset purchase program, global financial markets are hyper-sensitive to any sign the program is coming to an end.
    The strong reaction of markets for the second month in a row to a debate over when to rein in quantitative easing illustrates the intense pressure on the Fed to choose its exit route carefully so it doesn’t destroy markets’ and consumers’ fragile confidence and derail the economic recovery.
    China’s move to drain funds from markets for the first time in eight months also served to remind financial markets of just how accommodative global monetary policy is – and has been for the last five years – and how the global shift to a more neutral policy is likely to be a recurring theme.
   
  Through the first eight weeks of this year, 77 percent of this year’s 69 policy decisions among the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News have favoured unchanged rates compared with 19 percent of decisions favouring rate cuts. This ratio is steady from last week.
    While the overall global economy remains sluggish, the contrast between Colombia and Thailand shows how growth in Asia is continuing to pick up speed while the slowdown in most of South America has yet to ease its grip.
    Colombia’s central bank cut its key rate for the sixth time since it embarked on an easing cycle last July and is concerned that low inflationary expectations could become entrenched amid a weakening economy, a sign that further rate cuts are likely.
    The Bank of Thailand is facing the opposite situation with its economy growing faster than expected and growing inflationary pressures. It is among the handful of Asian central banks that may raise rates later this year to curtail inflation from a combination of strong domestic demand, growing exports and capital inflow that is pushing up its currency and adding further fuel to asset prices.
    Turkey’s creative and flexible monetary policy was once again on display this week as the bank tries to find the right balance between stimulating economic growth yet discouraging hot money from flowing into the country to take advantage of the relatively high interest rates.
    While the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey eased its policy stance by cutting short-term rates, it combined this with a “measured tightening” of reserve requirements – a macroprudential measure – to limit capital inflows and excessive bank lending. Meanwhile, the benchmark interest rate, seen as a more heavy-handed tool, was left unchanged.
    The immediate effect was that the Turkish lira fell, showing that its nimble and multi-pronged policy is still paying off.
 LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 8) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI    NEW RATE          OLD RATE       1 YEAR AGO
TURKEYEM5.50%5.50%5.75%
THAILANDEM2.75%2.75%3.00%
NAMIBIA5.50%5.50%6.00%
COLOMBIAEM3.75%4.00%5.25%
    NEXT WEEK (week 9) features only four scheduled central bank meetings, including Angola, Israel, Hungary and Trinidad & Tobago.
    Other events that financial markets will closely follow include Italy’s general election on Sunday and Monday and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s scheduled testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday to the Senate Banking Committee.

COUNTRYMSCI         MEETING              RATE       1 YEAR AGO
ANGOLA25-Feb10.00%10.25%
ISRAELDM25-Feb1.75%2.50%
HUNGARYEM26-Feb5.50%7.00%
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO28-Feb2.75%3.00%