Central Bank News Link List – Feb.18, 2013: G-20 signals support for Japan easing without yen talk

By www.CentralBankNews.info

    Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

Real-Forex News 18.2 EURUSD and Gold Analysis

Forex Daily review brought to you by REAL FOREX | www.Real-forex.com

Weekly Review to -18.02.2013
EUR-USD
Weekly
Daily chart
Quote the previous weekly review:
According to the weekly chart analysis, an upward movement stopped at the 1.3700 level of resistance (You can see the weekly chart) and the price dropped sharply to the level of 1.3354, a Fibonacci correction level that is 50% of the continuous upward movement which began at the level of 1.3000 and described by the black broken line. Blocking of the current downtrend between the levels of 1.3354 and the 1.3270 (Fibonacci correction of 61.8% above the upward movement) and a reasonable return of the price upwards, has taken the price to check again the last peak level of 1.3700. On the other hand, a breaking of the price support level at 1.3270, might certainly lead to the next support level of 1.3172.
Current Review today:
The price hasbroken the level of 1.3354, but the last candle has closed above this level,while it leaves a long downtail, up tail and a small body. This candle created uncertainty. Breaching the top of this candle is reasonable to assume, will take the price to continue it’s up course to the next resistance level of 1.3484 (You can see the decline on the graph). However, breaking the bottom of this candle isreasonable to take the price course down, while a breaking of 1.3270 level, almostcertainly will lead tothe level of support at 1.3172, at the first stage.
You can see the graph here:

GOLD
Weekly
Daily chart
Quote Review last week:
The price continues to range around a reasonable level of 1672, when its boundaries are the 1630 level of support and the resistance level of 1695. A breaking of the 1630 level, will most likely lead to the next price support level of 1590. On the other hand, if the price breaks the 1695 level, it probably, will continue towards the next resistance level of 1723.
Current Review today:
A stronglevel ofsupportof1630was broken, when you can see it continues to moveaccording to its present downwards price formation structure (peaks and lows arranged in a descending order) from the last record of 1791. It is most likely to assume, that the priceis destined to reach towards the near bottom lip of the parallel channelwhich coursing down,and also being a level of support at1590. The next target level might be the next support level of 1553 and after this, the last low level of 1540.
You can see the graph here:

Gold Fails to Hold Asian Gains, Next Large-Scale Devaluation “Could Be the Pound”

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 18 February 2013, 07:00 EST

U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices failed to hold onto gains made in Monday’s Asian session, falling to $1611 an ounce by lunchtime in London, just a few Dollars above Friday’s six-month low, as the US Dollar extended recent gains.

Gold dropped 3.4% over the course of last week, including a sharp drop during Friday’s US trading.

“The latest price slide was accompanied by significant outflows from gold ETFs,” says today’s commodities note from Commerzbank.

“Investors on the futures market are [also] largely to blame [for the price drop].”

The speculative net long position of gold futures and options traders on the Comex fell to its lowest reported level since August in the week ended last Tuesday, weekly data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The spec net long is calculated as the difference between ‘bullish’ long and ‘bearish’ short contracts held by Comex traders categorized as ‘noncommercial’.

“Clearly, the market, which has been plagued by concerns over central banks’ commitments to continued monetary accommodation, was concerned about the downside that would be opened up in the absence of Asian players that were celebrating Lunar New Year last week,” says Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.

Trading volumes set a new record on the Shanghai Gold Exchange Monday, according to newswire Reuters, with more than 22 tonnes of the Au9999 contract (for bars of 99.99% purity) traded, as China’s markets re-opened following last week’s Lunar New Year holiday.

Silver meantime rallied back above $30 an ounce during Monday’s Asian session, trading either side of that level during the morning in London.

European stock markets were little changed on the day by lunchtime, with volumes reported lower with US markets closed today for Presidents’ Day.

Commodities were also broadly flat, with the exception of copper which was down more than 1.2% on the day by lunchtime in London.

On the currency markets, the US Dollar Index, which measures that currency’s strength against a basket of other currencies, touched its highest level so far this year this morning.

Following a two-day meeting in Moscow, G20 finance ministers issued a joint communiqué over the weekend saying they will “refrain from competitive devaluation” of their currencies.

“We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes,” the statement added.

“[The communiqué will] limit Japan’s ability to provide verbal guidance on the Yen moving forward,” reckons Adarsh Sinha, foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“This likely takes away a key tool used by Japanese officials to weaken the yen at an unprecedented pace and shifts the burden of evidence to policy implementation.”

The Yen however fell further against the Dollar this morning, extending Friday’s drop and erasing most of the gains made last week ahead of the G20 meeting.

Following the onset of the financial crisis in 2007, the Yen rose by more than a third against the Dollar by mid-2011, though it has since weakened by more than 20%.

Elsewhere on the currency markets, Sterling fell to a seven-month low against the Dollar this morning, also edging lower against the Euro.

More money managers are shorting Sterling than buying it for the first time in five months, the Financial Times reports, citing the latest CFTC data.

“The Pound seems clearly at risk of following the Yen and suffering the next large-scale devaluation for a major currency,” reckons Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of global currency strategy at UBS.

“It is possible that the full benefits of [Sterling’s] 2007/8 depreciation are yet to be realized,” said Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale in a speech on Saturday, adding that “growth of exports and a shrinkage of imports would together be a helpful source of demand for UK output”.

The Royal Mint plans to make its first gold coins in India since 1918, in partnership with refiner MMTC-PAMP, with a view to marketing the coins in the world’s largest gold buying market, the Mint announced Monday.

The announcement comes as British prime minister David Cameron starts a three-day visit to India, where he is due to meet business representatives.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

The Two-Dimensional Diamond That’s Set to Turn Your World Upside Down

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The Two-Dimensional Diamond That’s Set to Turn Your World Upside Down

Here are a few Monday riddles for you:

What space-age material is two hundred times stronger than structural steel?

What conducts electricity so insanely quickly that researchers at IBM see ‘no intrinsic limits into how fast it can go’?

And which new substance is the subject of three thousand new research projects, and has just been given a one billion Euro research investment from the European Commission?

Amazingly, the answer is the same for all three questions

I’m talking about graphene.


This is the brand new material that the world of science is salivating over.

Graphene is completely revolutionising the world of material science, even more than the arrival of plastics did last century. The unparalleled strength and conductivity of graphene make the possibilities so much more tantalising than plastics ever could have.

If this is the first you’ve heard of it, let me explain…

Graphene is produced from graphite, and is a two dimensional sheet of carbon atoms arranged hexagonally. At an atomic level it looks like chicken wire:

Graphene at an Atomic Level…or Chicken Wire?

Graphene at an Atomic Level...or Chicken Wire?
Source: Nanotec

This simple arrangement of atoms is remarkably powerful, because it is essentially a diamond in two dimensions. Not only that, but this one-atom-thick ‘sheet’ of graphene is completely invisible, yet it so strong is will support a newborn baby’s weight.

That’s truly remarkable. But now imagine you made a sheet of graphene the thickness of gladwrap. It would be so ridiculously strong, that in the words of Professor James Hone at Columbia University, ‘It would take an elephant, balanced on a pencil, to break through it.’

I’d pay good money to see an elephant balancing on a pencil, let alone on a sheet of graphene!

Clearly graphene is set to turn the world of engineering on its head. Lighter, stronger parts would obviously be useful in aircraft, for example. Really at this stage, it’s just the imagination holding back graphene’s potential applications.

But it gets stranger.

This material also heals itself.

That popular bedtime-read, Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics reported that scientists at Manchester University have proven that holes in graphene sheets completely fill up, without trace, when carbon atoms are sprayed at it. The loose carbon atoms are just absorbed, and line up perfectly in new hexagons. Now THAT is just plain bizarre.

A small rip in a soldier’s bulletproof graphene-jacket during battle?

Easy! Just spray it with Graph-plugTM to quickly close it up! (OK, I made that up.)

And maybe I’m getting ahead of myself here, but the point is this: we just don’t know how graphene will change our world, but we can be sure that it will.

Graphene is All Set to Shake Up the World

Its physical properties set it apart, but its electrical properties really take the cake.

Electrons move so freely across the matrix of hexagons, that it could be used to make microprocessors that are many time faster than conventional silicon based ones.

This has already been done by IBM. Their first attempt resulted in a transistor running at 150 GHz. The fastest silicon peer runs at 40GHz. Not bad for a first attempt! And they see no ceiling in how much faster they can go with future attempts. It seems like computers are going to be getting much, much faster.

A combination of the tough, conductive properties of graphene make it perfect for touch-screens on mobile phones.

Samsung sees it going well beyond just replacing this conventional touch-screen technology though, to become something much bigger. They have already developed a 25-inch graphene touch-screen. Even more remarkable, it can be folded up.

Imagine a high powered computer you can fold up and stick in your wallet. It sounds crazy, but it may not be that far away.

We already knew Graphite is excellent in lithium ion batteries, but now graphene is proving to be even better.

Taking it one step further researchers now expect graphene can be used to make ultra-capacitors which hold as much charge as a lithium ion battery, but can be charged in minutes. That would really shake up the electric car market, which is being held back by very long charge times for vehicles.

The list goes on, and keeps growing. Graphite seems set to shake up the world of solar energy as well. The medical sector should benefit too as graphene can be used to enhance medical tests.

You can rest assured that in the next fewyears, graphene will become a household word. This is one of the stories I’ll continue to follow. And you can follow me and my thoughts on it (along with a bunch of other things) on my free Google plus page.

Readers of Diggers and Drillers would know I tipped a graphite stock last May. It’s now up 230% to become the world’s largest graphite company. It’s developed a resource larger than all the others combined, and is set to get much bigger yet.

The reason I went for graphite last year was not graphene – rather it was more about growing demand for graphite from the lithium ion battery industry.

At the time I didn’t see that graphene would generate any commercial demand for graphite. Even though graphene was clearly very exciting, it was a sideshow to the graphite market.

But over the last year that has started to change rapidly. US manufacturers can now produce meaningful quantities of high quality graphene.

The Nobel Prize in physics recently went to graphene pioneers including Professor Andre Geim. And he now reckons graphene products will be commercially available within a few years.

At the current speed that the research – and resulting progress – is moving, it won’t be long before graphene becomes a serious source of demand for what is already a ridiculously tight graphite market.

Make no mistake this is the start of something big. Quality graphite deposits already looked like a good investment – but they just got a whole load better.

Dr Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

Join me on Google Plus

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: How to Hunt Down 2013′s Biggest Stock Market Winners

Daily Reckoning: Time to Opt Out of Government Sponsored Investing

Money Morning: Message from a Hedge Fund Master: Learn About the Currency Market

Pursuit of Happiness: Put the Future on Hold, Plan for Today First

The Biggest Threat to the Euro

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Europe’s problems go a lot deeper than Greece.

If you didn’t already know that, it became pretty plain last week.

Germany, France and Italy all saw their economies shrink in the final quarter of 2012, compared to the third quarter. Overall, the eurozone economy shrunk by 0.6%, a bigger drop than expected.

It’s all pretty grim. It also puts even more pressure on the most important relationship in the eurozone – the one between Germany and France…

 Why Greece Didn’t Leave the Euro…

For most of last year, the biggest threat to the euro was the ‘Grexit’ – the danger that Greece would drop out (or be kicked out) of the zone, resulting in a chain reaction of fellow members leaving.

That threat receded as the Greeks voted to stick with the status quo, and the European Central Bank (ECB) stepped in to promise unlimited government bond-buying, if necessary. Markets strengthened, along with the euro.

Now Greece is hardly out of the woods yet. Between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2012, the economy shrank by 6%. The Greeks may yet get sick of this.

But I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that by far the greatest risk to the euro is an exit by Germany, not Greece, or one of the other peripheral countries.

Let’s think about this for a moment. The peripheral nations are in a lot of pain. That’s why pundits argue that they will vote to leave the eurozone: simply because the populations can’t stand it any longer.

But it’s not that simple. The first problem is this: people in the peripheral nations are only too aware that they are suffering. But they don’t necessarily link that suffering to the euro in itself. They’re more likely to link it to the intransigence of their fellow members – the Germans in particular.

So there’s no direct link in the average voter’s mind between the single currency and their economic woes. That’s why we haven’t really seen any major anti-euro political movement yet. There’s a hint of it in Italy, but I suspect that’s more about blackmailing other members to gain influence: Italy knows it’s too big to fail, so the European Central Bank had better fall into line, or else.

Secondly, for the peripheral economies, the euro represents a major advance for them. Many of the ‘Club Med’ countries have only recently (in historical terms) become democracies. Being able to join the euro and the ranks of the firmly developed economies is quite an achievement. Leaving again would feel like a step back. Nobody wants that.

And thirdly, ditching the euro is hardly an easy option. It’s not as though these economies will recover the morning after they return to the drachma or peseta or escudo. Inflation will rocket, savers will be ruined, and you’ll have a lot of potential for unrest and unpredictable side-effects. That’s not something you vote for lightly.

  Why Germany Just Might Leave the Euro

So, thinking about it like that, the fragile countries are not in a good position to leave the euro. They might need a weaker currency, but they’d much rather have a weaker euro, not a return to their old currencies.

And the peripheral nations now have a champion, in the form of France. French president François Hollande is agitating for a weaker euro. But the Germans are not so keen.

Jens Weidmann, head of the German central bank, told Bloomberg: ‘I fear a politicisation of the exchange rate’. Other German officials may not be quite as ‘hard money’ as Weidmann, but with a German election up ahead this year, Angela Merkel has to tread a line between creating more eurozone upheaval, and being seen as bowing to the demands of other nations.

So we’ve got a situation whereby France and a majority of the other eurozone nations need and want a weaker currency. None of them are prepared to take the consequences of actively marching out of the euro. Germany on the other hand, is having its arm twisted to bail these countries out (as it sees it), at the risk of inflicting higher inflation on its own citizens.

If Germany were to leave the euro, its new currency wouldn’t collapse. If anything, it would soar. We might see that as a big problem for an export-dependent nation, but estimates by various investment banks suggest that Germany could tolerate a much higher exchange rate before it caused it real pain.

So here are the choices: if you are Greek, you have a choice of doom by deflation, or doom by rampant inflation. Your best hope of a more moderate path is to get a far weaker euro. Given the options, throwing your lot in with the French and pressurising the ECB to weaken the single currency, looks the best of a bad bunch.

If you’re German though, your choice is: bail out all these other countries and put up with inflation. Or leave them to it, get the strong currency you desire, and keep pumping out top-class export goods that other nations will buy anyway. The only thing keeping you onside is an emotional attachment to the eurozone ‘project’.

So what does it all mean investment-wise? A German exit would take ages to play out. It’s not going to happen soon. But the Germans are not going to get the kind of euro they want.

Indeed, I’d be surprised if the euro gets much stronger this year from here. Given the litany of whining that has already started up, I hate to imagine the reaction if it actually gets to $1.40 or more, from where it is now. The ECB will come under pressure to act, or to at least keep talking it down.

John Stepek

Contributing Writer, Money Morning

 Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek

 From the Archives…

Four Things to Look Out for When Buying Gold Stocks

15-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

Here’s One Way to Eke More Gains from this Rising Stock Market

14-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

When Will the Inflationary Stock Boost End?

13-02-2013 – Murray Dawes

Gold Stocks: Back Up the Truck

12-02-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Next Surge in the Gold Price Looms: It’s Time to Buy Gold Now

11-02-2013 – Dr. Alex Cowie

USDJPY stays in a trading range between 92.17 and 94.43

USDJPY failed to break below 92.17 key support and stays in a trading range between 92.17 and 94.43. As long as 92.17 support holds, the price action in the range is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 79.07 (Nov 9, 2012 low). Further rise to test 94.43 previous high resistance would likely be seen, a break above this level will signal resumption of the uptrend, then next target would be at 96.00 area. Only break below 92.17 will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 94.43 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 91.00 zone.

usdjpy

Forex Signals

Is the Rally in Junk Over?

By The Sizemore Letter

Pick up any financial newspaper over the past two weeks, and you’ll read about the selloff in junk bonds and what it might portend for the stock market.

Remember, though junk bonds are fixed income, their risk characteristics make them more similar to equities.  Junk bonds carry higher default risk and are thus far more sensitive to the health of the economy than investment-grade bonds.  In the world of risk on / risk off, junk bonds certainly qualify as risk assets.

So, the recent headlines caught my attention.  There’s just one little problem.  They’re not true.

SPDR Barclays High Yield ETF (NYSE:JNK).

SPDR Barclays High Yield ETF (NYSE:JNK).

Take a look at the SPDR Barclay’s High Yield ETF (NYSE:$JNK).  Yes, the ETF has spent most of February in correction.  But from peak to recent trough, the losses have barely amounted to 3%.

Plus, this isn’t the first time.  Over the past year, junk bonds have had five selloffs of comparable (or greater) magnitude.  And yet junk bonds have recovered every time.

Nothing lasts forever, and the junk bond rally will eventually fizzle.  But with junk bond yields still over 6% in an environment in which the 10-year Treasury only yields 2%, I have no reason to believe that the top is in.

And as for equities,  we’ve already seen something of a correction.  U.S. stocks have been flattish in February, and most European markets are down sharply from their highs for the year.  It’s hard to argue that the modest fall in junk bond prices suggests that a larger correction is imminent.

Bottom line: It’s still a “risk on” market, and I recommend staying aggressively invested.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital has no positions in any security mentioned. This article first appeared on TraderPlanet.

 

The post Is the Rally in Junk Over? appeared first on Sizemore Insights.

The Core of American Liberty

By Bill Bonner

I’ve been at the beck and call of rich men all my life. But I’ll
be damned if I’ll be at the beck and call of every son-of-a-bitch with a
3% stamp.

– William Faulkner on losing his job at the Oxford, Miss., post office

One of the rarely cited advantages of having money is that you’re
less beholden to others who have it too. The more you have, at least in
theory, the more you can ignore the other fellow with it, and go about
your business. Nor need you drink the same cocktail or rush to the same
mall so you can outfit yourself in the same duds.

In short, with a little capital of your own you can do what you want.

And the fellow who said “money can’t buy happiness” has apparently not read yesterday’s New York Times:

Broadly speaking, the data now indicate
that as people get richer, they report getting happier too. Though it’s
not quite that simple.

Justin Wolfers, an economist at the
University of Michigan who helps advise the U.S. government on happiness
statistics, told me that poor people in poor countries are not unhappy
simply because they don’t have wads of cash. They are more likely to
have fewer choices, more children who die in childbirth and other grave
problems. And while wealthier nations are generally happier, there is no
evidence, Wolfers says, that an artist would be happier if she became a
hedge-fund trader.

The Importance of Capital

But we’re talking capital, not cash flow. The trouble with cash flow is that it doesn’t spring ab ovo from nowhere. It comes to your hands from the greasy mitts of someone else.

If they don’t keep the cash flowing, you may not have any. Unless
you’re a government employee or a tenured professor, a job is just a
job. You serve at the pleasure of others. If you give them displeasure,
they can cut off your income.

Capital
is different. If you have enough of it, you don’t have to work for
anyone. You can go fishing, pick your teeth and maintain unpatriotic
opinions.

Capital frees you from politics too. According to the most recent
numbers, nearly half of U.S. households now rely on other people’s money
for some or all of their income. They are beneficiaries of one or more
of the feds’ transfer programs. Money is taken from others; it is
transferred to them, as if to a getaway car.

The feds even have the chutzpah to give the recipients of this stolen
loot an electronic card called the “Independence Card.” Independent is
exactly what these people aren’t. Instead, says Charles Hugh Smith over
at OfTwoMinds.com, they are like feudal serfs.

“The core of American liberty is widespread private ownership of
property,” he writes. If you want to be free you have to have your hands
on the “means of production.” Otherwise, you’ve got to learn to bend.

Imagine that you have zero equity in the house you own, Hugh Smith suggests. How free are you then?

Or imagine that you need to buy a house and need a mortgage. The mortgage market is almost 100% controlled by the feds. How free are you?

The Rise of “Neo-Feudalism”

Hugh Smith does not mention it. But imagine that you rely on the feds for unemployment benefits, food stamps, healthcare or Social Security. Are you a free man? Or a serf?

Smith says we live in a condition of creeping “neo-feudalism.” A few
people own a lot of property. Most own very little. His attention is
focused on housing, where he believes the feds are quietly taking more
and more property out of private hands and putting it in the hands of
rich, concentrated elites.

He’s probably right about that. But it seems to us that even more
neo-feudalism is taking place right out in the open – where large groups
now depend on the feds… and on Fed’s EZ money… to maintain their
current standards of living.

Balance the federal budget? Stop the Fed’s printing presses? Let interest rates rise to a normal level?

Forget it. The serfs can’t afford it.

Regards,

Bill Bonner

Bill

http://www.billbonnersdiary.com/

 

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Feb. 16, 2013: Rates steady in 11 of 12 banks as growth prospects improve

By www.CentralBankNews.info

    Last week 12 central banks took monetary policy decisions with just one bank (Georgia) cutting rates while the other 11 central banks kept rates unchanged (Mozambique, Indonesia, Russia, Ghana, Armenia, Sweden, Botswana, Japan, Korea, Sri Lanka and Chile), reinforcing this year’s trend toward stable policy rates after last year’s hectic pace of monetary easing.
    Through the first seven weeks of this year, 77 percent of 65 policy decisions taken by the 90 banks covered by Central Bank News have resulted in unchanged interest rates while 18 percent have resulted in rate cuts.
    This compares with 73 percent of decisions in favor of steady rates after six weeks and 21 percent of decisions in favour of rate cuts.
    The global economy, and thus the prospect for exports, was seen as steadily improving by central banks in Indonesia, Korea, Sweden, Chile and Japan. A recent rise in global financial markets reflects a similar view of stronger growth.
    But optimism is still tempered by lingering uncertainty from the euro area’s fiscal and financial crises and U.S. efforts to cut its deficit and debt.
    The Bank of Japan, which has been grappling with deflation and sluggish growth for almost 20 years, said its economy appears to have stopped weakening but it will still have to pursue aggressive monetary easing to boost activity and inflation.
    A pickup in China’s economic activity was specifically cited by both Indonesia and Chile as helping growth, illustrating the importance of demand from China to exports from countries worldwide.
    Interestingly, three of the 11 central banks that raised interest rates in 2012 took policy decisions last week. Sri Lanka’s policy tightening appears to have paid off with credit growth easing while growth prospects in Ghana are improving.
    Russia, however, is still grappling with inflation that is expected to continue last year’s trend and remain above the bank’s target in the first half of this year. The Bank of Russia fears this could become entrenched in inflationary expectations, denting its hard-won inflation fighting credibility.
     Both Russia and Japan will be appointing new central bank governors in coming weeks, decisions that will be closely scrutinized by financial markets. Both central banks have been criticized for dragging their feet and not doing enough to boost economic growth.
    Heavy rains in recent weeks affected food production across many countries in the Southern Hemisphere, pushing up inflation in Indonesia, Mozambique and Sri Lanka.

LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 7) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRYMSCI    NEW RATE          OLD RATE       1 YEAR AGO
MOZAMBIQUE9.50%9.50%15.00%
INDONESIAEM5.75%5.75%5.75%
RUSSIAEM8.25%8.25%8.00%
GHANA15.00%15.00%13.50%
GEORGIA4.75%5.25%6.50%
ARMENIA8.00%8.00%8.00%
SWEDENDM1.00%1.00%1.50%
BOTSWANA9.50%9.50%9.50%
JAPANDM0.10%0.10%0.10%
SOUTH KOREAEM2.75%2.75%3.25%
SRI LANKAFM7.50%7.50%7.50%
CHILE EM5.00%5.00%5.00%
 Next week (week 8) looks quiet, with only three emerging market central banks scheduled to meet: Turkey, Thailand and Colombia.

COUNTRYMSCI         MEETING              RATE       1 YEAR AGO
TURKEYEM19-Feb5.50%5.75%
THAILANDEM20-Feb2.75%3.00%
COLOMBIAEM22-Feb4.00%5.25%

Kris Sayce’s Money Weekend Market Digest: 16 February 2013

By MoneyMorning.com.au

ENERGY

Our old pal, Dr Alex Cowie posted the following comment on his Google+ page:


‘US shale oil production has gone parabolic. Quite incredible, and puts the US on track to becoming the world’s largest oil producer. A secure source of energy will be one of the factors driving US economic growth this decade.’

The Doc was referring to the production of shale gas in the US. Particularly in Dakota, which some have renamed ‘Saudi Dakota’. You can see the impact of shale oil production on US oil production below:

Source: AEI Ideas

Thanks to shale oil, North Dakota oil production has taken off since 2009. And according to BP, the shale revolution means the US could be energy self-sufficient and a net exporter by 2030.

But it’s not just in the US where shale is having a big impact on energy. Australian explorers are looking to exploit the potentially vast reserves of shale gas in central Australia and Queensland. If things go to plan, shale could have just as big an impact on the Aussie energy scene as it has in the US.

GOLD

Gold has become one of the most unloved assets so far this year.

It started the year at USD$1,675 and has this week broken through what could be a key level as the price slides:

Source: Goldprice.org


In the overall picture, the price move isn’t that big a deal. It has fallen about USD$40. That’s the equivalent of BHP Billiton falling 88 cents.

The difference with gold is that it has traded sideways for a long time. And just like share investors and house buyers became bored with a sideways market, leading to price falls, the same story could play out with gold.

That’s why we’d recommending topping up on gold. If you’ve got fresh cash flow coming in we’d suggest diverting it towards gold rather than shares which have already rallied hard. Remember the first rule of investing: buy low, sell high (or at least hang on if you’re investing for the long term).

TECHNOLOGY

Smart beer? Not quite. But one home brewer has devised a way to smarten-up his home-brewing operation: using a Sony touchscreen tablet, a Raspberry Pi microprocessor…and beer.

According to Wired.com:


‘The Raspberry Pi has a reputation for being beginner-friendly, but even slightly buzzed hackers have been able
[to] use the mini microprocessor to improve their microbrews. Now one tinkerer is using his board, plus a 7-inch Sony touchscreen and a little PHP coding as the perfect high-tech setup for for [sic] his home-brew tap list.’

If you’re not familiar with the Raspberry Pi, it’s basically a ‘naked computer’. You get the motherboard and nothing else. Don’t ask for a mouse or a monitor, because you won’t get one, but you can buy them separately and plug them in.

You can see a diagram and photo of the Raspberry Pi below:

To give you an idea of the size, it’s about the length and breadth of a credit card.

So, what can you use it for? One guy known as SchrodingersDrunk has built an electronic system that monitors the production level of his home-brewed beers:

Source: Wired, SchrodingersDrunk


But how else can you use a Raspberry Pi? ARS Technica says:


‘One enterprising Pi user revealed this month that he’s using Siri to open and close his garage door, thanks to a Raspberry Pi hooked up to an automatic garage door system.’

You can see the video here.

Or how about building your own super computer or making music with beetroot? Click here for 10 ‘practical’ uses for a Raspberry Pi.

What we like about this is the individualistic nature of the Raspberry Pi. The manufacturers sell the ‘naked computer’. It’s then up to the end user to decide what to do with it…unlike Apple, which controls what you can or can’t do with its machines.

HEALTH

The European horsemeat scandal reminds us why we rarely ever buy processed meat (a cheeseburger once a month is pretty much our only exception).

But what’s the big deal? It’s just horse meat right? Few people choose to eat horsemeat. And if they did they probably wouldn’t choose to eat 30-year old nags or broken-down racehorses. But there’s an even more important health consideration. As the New Scientist notes:


‘Difficulties in pinning down the exact source of the horsemeat make it difficult to say how safe it is to eat. The FSA [Food Standards Authority] says there are no known safety issues at present, but have ordered tests for the anti-inflammatory drug phenylbutazone, or “bute”.

‘”We consume foods with low levels of drug residues all the time,” says Christopher Elliott, director of the Institute for Global Food Security at Queen’s University Belfast, UK. Bute is an exception. It is banned in food for human consumption in Europe and the US because of a rare but nasty side effect that can cause a bone marrow disorder called aplastic anaemia. “This drug cannot be used in food-producing animals as there is a risk, albeit very small, of severe adverse reactions,” says Elliott.

‘As New Scientist went to press, the FSA had not ordered tests for any other drug. But with allegations flying around that meat may have come from retired racehorses, tests for drugs like steroids – used illegally to boost growth – could be around the corner.’

As we say, some would say ‘so what?’ But horses generally aren’t bred for eating, so it boggles the mind to think what goes into those horses to make them run faster and maintain stamina. Most likely it’s not the kind of thing you want going into your body.

MINING


‘Rio Tinto’s shares have fallen by more than 2 per cent in early trade after it posted its first ever loss, but analysts say the drop is mainly due to profit-taking.’ – The Age

Ah, profit taking. The perennial excuse for when a share falls. Investors are taking profits.

Of course, the idea of profit taking is nonsense. Investors buy shares at all sorts of prices. There is no single point at which investors take profits. Besides, who says investors are taking profits? Some of those who sold Rio may have bought them for $140 in 2008.

Others may have bought them for $70 a year ago and they’re now happy to break even.

But anyway, we’re being picky. It has been a great few months for big resources stocks. Rio Tinto [ASX: RIO] has climbed 40% since last September. And the Metals & Mining Index [ASX: XMM] is up about 20% over the same time:

Source: CMC Markets Stockbroking


But if you look at the long-term picture, mining stocks are still 37% down from the 2008 peak. With China appearing to be on the rebound (according to Doc Cowie) it tells you there’s still plenty of room for resources stocks to go higher.

As always, nothing moves in a straight line up or down, so don’t expect it to be a smooth ride.

Cheers,
Kris

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From the Archives…

Two Questions to Ask Before You Buy Another Stock
8-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

Are These 5 Blue-Chip Stocks Still a Good Buy?
7-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

Don’t be Long and Wrong on this Stock Market Rally
6-02-2013 – Kris Sayce

Perceptions of Beauty and Stock Valuations
5-02-2013 – Satyajit Das

This Share Market Rally Has Angered Some Investors
4-02-2013 – Kris Sayce