A string of woeful economic data today from Japan to the European bloc is deemed to benefit the exchanges of the US dollar opposite the Swiss franc. In the skirmish between the two secure investments, the Greenback is more likely to take the bullish charge as economists anticipate improvements in the world’s largest economy, in contrast with the ill mood across the other major markets.
US unemployment claims for the past week are forecast to have declined, albeit slightly. Data from the labor department today is assumed to show a decrease in the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. Economists estimate a drop to 361,000 people, after the prior release showed that 366,000 individuals filed for jobless insurance. A steeper dive would provide further bullish momentum for the Greenback.
On related news, Anna-Louise Jackson & Anthony Feld of Bloomberg News report that more American employees may voluntarily quit their jobs this year as an increase in wages and openings boosts confidence in the labor market. This coincides with President Obama’s directive of increasing the Federal minimum wage to $9, as per his State of the Union speech.
Based on seasonally-adjusted data from the Department of Labor, about 2.2 million US workers resigned in December, which is a 7.4 percent increase from a year earlier. These employees represent 53 percent of total separations, the highest since June 2008. This ratio has shown “good improvement and has been trending up” after hitting the lowest ratio of 37 percent in April 2009, according to Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group. Readings above 50 percent imply “a reasonably good and improving economy,” as the quits ratio is “inextricably linked” with consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, a role reversal seems to have occurred in the Euro Zone after preliminary data showed that Germany and France shrank by 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively in the final quarter of 2012. For Germany, this is its deepest contraction since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009, while France is edging closer to recession.
These economic data support the prospects of the Greenback, and a buy position is recommended for the USDCHF today. It is still wise to look out for probable technical corrections on the currency pair’s movement.
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