December 2012 – Page 5 – InvestMacro Forex News

December 26, 2012

“Fiscal Cliff” News Set to Drive Markets Today

Despite low liquidity in the marketplace due to the Christmas holiday and a lack of economic indicators, the US dollar started off the week on a bullish note. Fears regarding the prospect of the US going over the “fiscal cliff” of spending cuts and tax increases at the beginning of the year were the main reason behind the safe-haven greenback’s upward momentum. Today, another slow news day means that traders will want to once again pay attention to any developments in the ongoing budget negotiations between President Obama and Congressional leaders.

Economic News

USD – US Budget Crisis may Impact Dollar Today

The safe-haven US dollar saw additional gains to start off the week, as concerns that the US could sink back into another recession if ongoing budget negotiations are not resolved led to risk aversion in the marketplace. The USD/CHF gained close to 40 pips during European trading on Monday, eventually reaching as high as 0.9163. The pair was last trading at 0.9153 when markets closed for Christmas. Against the JPY, the dollar gained more than 50 pips on Monday to reach a new 20-month high at 84.85.

Turning to today, another slow news day is expected, as most international markets remain closed. Still, the markets could see volatility as US lawmakers rush to reach a budget deal before a batch of automatic tax increases and spending cuts, known as the “fiscal cliff”, go into effect and threaten another recession. Any positive developments in the negotiations today will likely lead to risk taking among investors, which would likely lead to the dollar erasing some of its recent gains.

EUR – Progress in US Budget Talks Could Drive Euro Higher

The euro saw a mixed trading session to start off the week on Monday, as the ongoing deadlock in budget negotiations between US lawmakers led to risk aversion in the marketplace. The EUR/USD fell some 45 pips during afternoon trading to reach as low as 1.3173. By the time markets closed for Christmas, the pair was trading at 1.3189. The common currency had better luck against the Japanese yen, as speculations that the Bank of Japan will soon ease monetary policy further weighed down on the JPY. The EUR/JPY gained 75 pips during European trading, eventually reaching as high as 111.99.

Today, with several European markets still closed for the Christmas holiday, the euro is not forecasted to see significant volatility unless there is any news or announcements regarding the US “fiscal cliff” negotiations. Signs that the budget crisis is closer to being resolved are likely to lead to risk taking in the marketplace, which could boost the euro. At the same time, a lack of developments today may lead to additional risk aversion, which would send the euro lower against the USD.

Gold – Gold Prices Steady in Thin Trading

The price of gold took minor losses during trading on Monday, but a lack of significant news limited the precious metal’s bearish trend. By the time markets closed for Christmas, gold was trading at $1658.85 an ounce, down slightly more than $6 from the beginning of European trading.

Today, traders will want to note that the lack of significant economic indicators will make gold vulnerable to seemingly random price shifts. Any mention of the US “fiscal cliff” or the ongoing budget negotiations between US lawmakers may generate volatility in the price of gold.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Prices Flat to Start Week

The price of crude oil saw very little movement ahead of the Christmas holiday on Monday due to the lack of developments in US “fiscal cliff” negotiations and international economic indicators. The commodity ended Monday’s session at $88.60 a barrel, down $0.30 for the day.

Today, crude oil prices are likely to see volatility if there are any announcements or developments in the US “fiscal cliff” negotiations. Signs of progress in the negotiations are likely to lead to risk taking among investors, which may boost oil as a result.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has crossed over into overbought territory, signaling that a downward correction could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the MACD/OsMA on the daily chart, which appears close to forming a bearish cross. Opening short positions may be best choice for this pair.

GBP/USD

While a bearish cross has formed on the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA, most other long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

The weekly chart’s Relative Strength Index has crossed over into overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the coming days. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross. Going short may be the best choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are beginning to narrow, signaling that a price shift could occur in the near future. Additionally, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has dropped into oversold territory, indicating that the price shift could be upward. Opening long positions may be the best choice for this pair.

The Wild Card

NZD/USD

The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has fallen into oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic is close to forming a bullish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions for this pair.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

December 26, 2012

USD/CHF: A Fiscal Disaster Bears on the Greenback-Swissie

A sideways trend persists for the US dollar-Swiss franc currency pair. So are the anxieties over the looming fiscal cliff, which could turn into a fiscal disaster for the world’s largest economy if a budget deal cannot be agreed upon before the dreaded deadline. But with US lawmakers seemingly unable to come into an agreement, market participants are turning jittery, which could lead to selloffs of the Greenback and purchases of the Swissie.

Most markets are trading on thin volume today, which is not a big surprise during the holidays. But with less than a week left before the United States goes over the fiscal cliff, investors are seen limiting their risk exposure and are likely to bank on safer assets.

Anxieties over what is believed to be a failed grand bargain affect the demand for the riskier single currency. US lawmakers remain deadlocked on a deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, a week before the dreaded deadline. It has been reported that President Barack Obama plans to leave his Hawaii vacation December 26 and return to Washington on December 27, the same day that Congress returns to continue negotiations on averting the fiscal cliff.

Though there is still a chance for a deal, it grows more unlikely by the day, and there are not many days left, says Ron Bonjean, a Republican strategist who formerly served as a spokesman for House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott.

A report by Cotten Timberlake of Bloomberg states that Americans have become warier as Washington approaches the end of the year without an agreement to forestall higher taxes and automatic spending cuts. Last month, retailers from Macy’s Inc. to Target Corp. posted same-store sales that trailed analysts’ estimates. Consumer confidence fell in December to a five-month low, according to a December 21 report. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slid to 72.9, the weakest since July, from 82.7 in November.

In another sign that consumers are pulling back, US online sales increased 8.4 percent this holiday season, compared with last year’s almost 16 percent gain, MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse said.

As fiscal cliff apprehensions bear on the trades today, and as consumers are seen pulling back, a short position is suggested for the USDCHF today. Technical price corrections are still likely, however.

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December 26, 2012December 30, 2012

Obama and Alternative Energy: the Paradox

Source: ForexYard

One of Barack Obama’s primary initiatives during his first week in office has been focused on generating the incentives necessary to help proliferate the usage of renewable energy. Mixed with this environmental push is also legislation designed to entice auto makers to begin researching and producing more fuel-efficient cars as well as providing incentives to make them more affordable in the U.S. market.

The drastically rising Crude Oil prices of 2008, analysts believe, may have been one of the driving forces behind this recent financial crisis and recession. As the price of Crude Oil spikes upward, as it did last year, the cost of gasoline also obviously increases, which affects the disposable income of consumers. “Our leaders raise their voices each time there is a spike in gas prices,” President Obama said, “only to grow quiet when the price falls at the pump.”

By addressing this issue so directly, President Obama has pin-pointed the paradox of our push for renewable energy and fuel-efficiency. When the price of Crude Oil rises, the voice of the people echoes defiantly that the government is not doing enough to protect the people or the environment; yet when the prices come back down, the roar silences and the push for renewable energy stops. As such, the most desirable outcome would be to find a price level for Crude Oil which will maintain the environmental initiatives while protecting the wallets of consumers by helping them save at the gas pumps.

It is the belief of the ForexYard analyst team that the $30-35 price range for Crude Oil is just such a desirable level. Oil producing countries which benefited greatly from last year’s price increases began developing infrastructure projects which may now be difficult to maintain. As such, oil producers are looking to curb production and increase prices. On the other side of that equation are governments who are looking for ways to decrease dependency on oil. The race between these two forces, along with an economy badly damaged by recession, may likely go in favor of oil consumers. The downward pressure on the price of Crude Oil is evident. If you were looking for a safe investment as a forex trader, Crude Oil is where you need to be looking. An early sell position on Crude Oil at the current price of $45 a barrel carries with it the potential to earn enormous profits for the wise trader.

You can start trading Crude Oil now with ForexYard’s trading platform. Simply open one of our Standard Accounts, put forth the amount you’d like to invest, and start seeing your profits shoot through the roof!

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

December 25, 2012

The U.S. Dollar Has Finally Corrected. Will the Correction Continue?

EURUSD

Yesterday, bulls in the EUR/USD continued to amaze by its tenacity and optimism, pushing the pair higher and higher. The single currency did not even try to test the broken-through resistance near 1.3170 and finding its support at 1.3229 its growth was resumed. The pair immediately passed the resistance at 1.3255 and continued to increase until it reached the level of 1.3308. There, market participants decided to take profits, having led the pair decrease to 1.3236, but during the Asian session on Thursday, the pair dropped to 1.3189. There, the pair rolled back from the level of 1.3228, which acted as the resistance again. Consequently, the pair left the overbought state on the 4-hour chart, due to its correction to 1.3189, and it is wise to assume that its growth will be resumed towards the current high, because yesterday’s drop is corrective and while quotes are holding above the broken-through level of 1.3170, the euro prospects remain constructive. In anticipation of the holidays and in the absence of news, the pair could well remain in the range of 1.3170 — 1.3308. In case of the loss of the support near 1.3170, the euro will drop to the level of 1.3126, which can be considered as the key one for the bulls in the pair. By and large, the EUR/USD could well be corrected to this level too.

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair also demonstrated a positive mood. The pound continued increasing to the level of 1.6262 and reached the 1.6306 resistance without any pullbacks, rising above the upper line of the ascending tunnel. Both on the 4-hr and daily charts, the RSI was in the overbought zone, the pair hit the highs of September, from which it dropped to 1.5828, thus profit-taking was surprisings. As a result, the GBP/USD ended the day with its drop to 1.6238, having returned to the bottom line of the ascending tunnel. There, on the 4-hr chart, the RSI left the overbought zone, thus if the pound can consolidate at the current support, it will be wise not to exclude another attempt to increase to the 63rd figure. The loss of 1.6238 would decrease the rate to the 1.6180/70 proximity, which can be considered as the key one for the British pound bulls.

USDCHF

Yesterday, bears in the USD/CHF pair completed their minimum program. They brought the dollar to 0.9088, due to their sales from 0.9133. When this level was reached, the pair was undergone an upward correction, which allowed the dollar to recover to 0.9153. There, on the 4-hr chart, the RSI out of the oversold zone that promotes re-testing of the 91st figure. Nevertheless, the upward correction could well last up to the 0.9200 — 0.9240 proximity. Its rise above the latter resistance, would weaken the bearish pressure in the pair. In the absence of fresh incentives, breakdown of the current highs seems unlikely.

USDJPY

The dollar continued to push the Japanese yen higher. After reaching the level of 84.61, there’s something happened to the bulls that did not allow the dollar to increase higher. Having felt the bulls’ weakness, bears decided to take advantage of the situation and made the pair’s rate decrease to 83.86. Even the fact that the Bank of Japan expanded its Asset Purchase Program did not encourage the bulls to increase above 84.40. Despite the increased chance of the dollar’s decrease towards 83.20 — 81.80, it is premature to talk about changes in the speculators’ attitude towards the Japanese currency. Nevertheless, the probability of the USD/JPY pair’s growth above the 84.40/60 proximity looks pretty low.

Provided by IAFT

December 24, 2012

Israel trims rate 25 bps, cuts growth, inflation forecasts

By www.CentralBankNews.info Israel’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent, a move expected by some economists, saying inflation is continuing to decline and economic growth was still weakening.
The Bank of Israel (BOI), which has cut by 100 basis points this year, also cut its growth forecast for 2013 to 2.8 percent from a previous 3 percent, excluding the projected impact of the start of natural gas production from a new field in the second quarter.
Including the output from that field, the 2013 growth forecast is for 3.8 percent, up from forecast 2012 growth of 3.3 percent, but down from 2011’s 4.6 percent.
Israel’s Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter is expected to decline from the third quarter due a slowdown in exports related to global economic weakness, the bank said.
Israel’s economy grew by 0.7 percent in the third quarter for annual growth of 3.12 percent, slightly down from 3.24 percent in the second quarter.

“In addition, the shekel’s recent strength may make it more difficult for the economy to deal with the challenges it faces,” the BOI said, adding the level of global economic risks remain high and there is still uncertainty regarding the U.S. fiscal situation and Europe’s debt crises.

Israel’s inflation rate fell by a monthly 0.5 percent in November to an annual rate of 1.4 percent, down from 1.8 percent, the third consecutive month in which inflation has surprised on the downside.
The BOI said forecasts for inflation over the next 12 months have also declined to around 1.8 percent and average expectations for the central bank’s interest rate one year from now are for 1.8 percent.
The BOI’s own staff now expects 2013 inflation of 1.8 percent, down from its previous forecast of 2.2 percent. The bank targets inflation of 1-3 percent.
Through Dec. 21 from Nov. 25, the shekel has strengthened some 3 percent agains the U.S. dollar and 1.5 percent against the euro due to renewed purchases by nonresidents, the bank said.
Home prices rose by 0.5 percent in September-October for an annual rise of 3.7 percent, up from 2.3 percent, but the bank said it was too early to “assess the impact on home prices on the LTV ratio limitations which were imposed by the Supervisor of Banks and went into effect at the beginning of November.”
“Against the background of the need to provide additional support for economic activity and the absence of inflationary pressures at this time, the Monetary Committee decided to reduce the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points,” the bank said.

www.CentralBankNews.info

December 24, 2012

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays from CountingPips.com

Forex Newsletter December 24, 2012

Currency Speculators add to US Dollar short positions. Euro bets at lowest short level of the year

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures speculators continued to add to their overall short position in the US dollar last week for a fourth straight week.

Using a Put Butterfly to Trade Cummins Inc.

The essential elements of the pattern are an initial impulsive thrust (classically termed the X:A leg), a reversal of 0.618 to 1.00 of the initial thrust (the A:B leg), a second thrust in the direction of the initial leg (the B:C leg), and the final reversal thrust opposite in direction from the initial X:A leg extending from 1.272 to 1.618 of the initial leg.

2012′s Top 5 Oil & Gas Plays

2012 has been a stellar year for oil and gas. From East Africa to North America, new technology, major new discoveries, an unparalleled appetite for exploration and a metamorphosing perception of risk have changed the playing field.…

Chart Example – How to Identify High Confidence Reversal Zones

Technical analysis offers several ways to spot pullbacks that indicate a reversal of the larger trend. When you use the Elliott Wave Principle, it can be very useful to “gain a consensus” from more than one indicator to spot a high-confidence trading opportunity.…

Trading the ABC Sentiment Shifts Ahead Of The Crowd

One of the most obvious keys to successful trading or investing is buying low and selling high. The problem being if it was that easy to pinpoint those low and high points then all traders would be batting 1000%. What we use at my ATP service is a combination of fundamental analysis and catalyst spotting inter-twined with charting techniques.

Oil Prices Could Drop Substantially: An Interview with Michael Levi

There’s been plenty of talk about potentially radical US foreign policy changes as a result of the shale boom. While one shouldn’t expect any dramatic US foreign policy move away from the Middle East, factors are influencing a greater focus on Asia. Only one thing is certain in this transforming world: The shale boom is real and the implications are many and difficult to predict.

TODAY’S FOREX HEADLINES:

Market Trends 24.12.12 December 24, 2012

Market Review 24.12.12 December 24, 2012

Gold Regains Some Ground, “Good Demand” for Gold from India December 24, 2012

Renewed “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Lead to Risk Aversion December 24, 2012

Central Bank News Link List – Dec. 24, 2012: Japan’s Abe heaps pressure on BOJ to set 2 percent inflation target December 24, 2012

Monetary Policy Week in Review – Dec. 22, 2012: Six of 14 central banks cut rates, policy debate picks up speed December 22, 2012

Vietnam cuts rate 100 bps, 6th cut this year, inflation falls December 22, 2012

Colombia cuts rate another 25 bps, no inflation pressure December 22, 2012

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December 24, 2012

Market Trends 24.12.12

Source: ForexYard

Hey Everyone,

Below are some market trends for today.

Good luck!

-Dan

Gold- May see downward movement today
Support- 1645.40
Resistance- 1675.97

Silver- May see downward movement today
Support- 29.70
Resistance- 30.96

Crude Oil- May see upward movement today
Support- 87.42
Resistance-89.42

Dax 30- May see upward movement today
Support- 7584.30
Resistance- 7700.00

EUR/USD May see upward movement today
Support- 1.3164
Resistance- 1. 3299

Market Review 24.12.12

Source: ForexYard

The yen came within reach of a 20-month low against the US dollar in overnight trading, amid increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to adopt a more aggressive monetary easing policy.

The euro was able to recover some of its recent losses against the USD last night, and is once again trading above the 1.3200 level.

Both gold and silver also saw upward movement during Asian trading, while crude oil prices were largely flat to start off the week.

Main News for Today

With many markets already closed for the Christmas holiday, traders can anticipate low volatility in the marketplace, which could lead to seemingly random price shifts for little or no reason.

Gold Regains Some Ground, “Good Demand” for Gold from India

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 24 December 2012, 07:00 EST

ON THE FINAL day before Christmas, gold prices edged higher Monday morning, climbing to $1665 per ounce and recovering some of the ground lost last week.

Friday afternoon’s London gold fix was $1651.50 an ounce, a 2.6% weekly fall and the biggest weekly drop since June.

“[Gold’s fall] opens up a move to the next major support, which are the lows in the $1520s,” says Friday’s technical analysis note from Scotiabank.

On the physical bullion market, gold demand from traditional world number one India picked up Monday, dealers reported.

“Demand is good,” one dealer at a state-run bank in Mumbai told newswire Reuters earlier today.

“Buyers are placing orders for limited stocks with banks. They know the supply situation will remain tight for the next few days. Overseas suppliers are going on leave.”

Silver meantime rallied to $30.39 an ounce before easing slightly, like gold regaining a little of the

Stocks and commodities were broadly flat Monday morning, while the Euro gained against the Dollar but remained below last week’s seven-month high.

In New York, the so-called speculative net long position of gold futures and options traders – the difference between bullish and bearish contracts held – fell to its lowest level since August in the week ended last Tuesday, weekly data published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Elsewhere in the US, politicians negotiating over how to deal with the government’s deficit have left Washington for Christmas without any deal being agreed. The US economy is due to hit the so-called fiscal cliff of around $600 billion of spending cuts and tax cut expiries, starting next Monday, if Congress does not agree new legislation.

Here in Europe, current Italian prime minister Mario Monti said Saturday that he will not run in February’s parliamentary elections. He added however that he would consider being prime minister if nominated to the post by an elected coalition that would back what he called “the Monti agenda” of economic reforms.

“While he may not have thrown his hat into the ring,” says Nicholas Spiro, managing director at consultancy Spiro Sovereign Strategy, “Il Professore has become Il Politico whether he likes it or not…[Monti] has made it crystal clear where his political allegiances lie and that he’s ready to head
Italy’s next government.”

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

December 24, 2012December 24, 2012

Renewed “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Lead to Risk Aversion

Source: ForexYard

A setback in budget negotiations late last week generated fears that the US was closer to going over the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax increases and spending cuts, which led to significant risk aversion before markets closed for the weekend. As a result, safe-haven currencies, like the USD and JPY, turned bullish. This week, low volatility in the marketplace is expected due to the Christmas holiday. Still, traders will want to pay attention to any developments in the US budget talks, as well as several pieces of significant US news. Thursday’s CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, followed by Friday’s Pending Home Sales figures, all have the potential to create market volatility.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Sees Gains amid Breakdown in Budget Talks

The safe-haven US dollar saw bullish movement against its higher-yielding currency rivals on Friday, following a breakdown in budget negotiations between Congressional leaders and President Obama. The news resulted in fears that the US was closer to going over the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and spending cuts which threaten to bring another recession. The AUD/USD fell more than 80 pips over the course of the day, eventually trading as low as 1.0393, before closing out the week at 1.0402. The GBP/USD tumbled around 120 pips before finding support at 1.6150. The pair finished the week at 1.6169.

This week, traders should expect a low liquidity environment in the marketplace, as many investors will be on Christmas holiday. That being said, it should be remembered that seemingly random price shifts can occur unexpectedly during slow trading intervals. In addition, US home sales data, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, has the potential to create market volatility. Should the either the housing figures or CB Consumer Confidence report, also scheduled for Thursday, show gains in the US economy, the dollar is expected to go up as a result.

EUR – Euro Takes Losses Ahead of Slow Trading Week

Concerns that the US could slip back into recession following a breakdown in budget negotiations late last week led to risk aversion in the marketplace, which caused the euro to take losses throughout Friday’s trading session. Against the US dollar, the common-currency fell close to 70 pips to trade as low as 1.3156, before a slight upward correction brought it up to 1.3181 to close out the week. The EUR/JPY fell more than 100 pips during the first half of the day, eventually reaching 110.60, before bouncing back to 111.04 during evening trading.

This week, a lack of European news due to the Christmas holiday means that euro pairs are likely to see low liquidity. Traders will want to watch out for sudden price shifts, which are known to occur for seemingly no reason. In addition, and developments in the US “fiscal cliff” talks are likely to impact the markets, with any positive developments likely to turn the euro bullish.

Gold – Shift to Safe-Haven Assets Boosts Gold

The price of gold increased by close to $10 on Friday, as investors, worried about the US “fiscal cliff” and a breakdown in budget negotiations, shifted their funds to safe-haven assets. The precious metal rose as high as $1659.54 an ounce during afternoon trading, after which a minor downward correction brought prices to $1656.87.

With any progress in “fiscal cliff” negotiations unlikely to occur until after the Christmas holiday on Tuesday, gold is unlikely to see significant volatility until the second half of the week. That being said, any announcements or rumors regarding US budget negotiations today could lead to erratic shifts in prices, with any positive developments likely to turn the precious metal bearish.

Crude Oil – “Fiscal Cliff” Concerns Send Oil Tumbling

The price of crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel during the first half of the day on Friday, following a breakdown in US budget negotiations that resulted in investors shifting their funds to safe-haven assets. The commodity traded as low as $87.93 during afternoon trading before bouncing back to $88.93 where it closed out the week.

This week, oil traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant US indicators. Specifically, the New Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence and Pending Home Sales figures all have the potential to boost oil prices if they come in above their expected levels.

Technical News

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

The Wild Card

EUR/CAD

The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is in overbought territory. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions ahead of possible bearish movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.