Month: December 2012

By Elliott Wave International

On Nov. 2, 2012, the latest research paper from the Socionomics Institute, “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and US Presidential Elections,” published in Sage Open, a peer-reviewed journal of the social and behavioral sciences.

The paper’s authors, Robert Prechter and Deepak Goel of the Socionomics Institute, the late Wayne Parker of Emory University and Matthew Lampert of Cambridge University and the Socionomics Institute, have achieved an important advancement in the study of social mood’s influence on politics, and have received media attention from The New York Times, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and many other significant outlets.

Why?

The “Elections” paper shows a significant positive relationship between net changes in stock prices prior to Election Day and incumbents’ chances for re-election. The authors contend that the stock market does not reliably affect elections, and election outcomes do not reliably affect the stock market. Rather, they say, social mood regulates both.

The key point in the paper is the stock market’s performance in the years prior to Election Day. Consider this chart:

To watch a FREE presentation on the paper — given by Bob Prechter himself — at this year’s Social Mood Conference, simply follow this link.

The paper is available for free download from the Social Science Research Network – a vital resource for scholars, researchers and the educated public that currently boasts over 350,000 papers. “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and US Presidential Elections” is SSRN’s 3rd most downloaded paper of the past 12 months and among its top 100 all-time. Download the paper from SSRN here.

Moving Averages and the Wave Principle

Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Among Elliott wave traders, you will likely find an especially high…

Currency Speculators decrease US Dollar positions for 2nd week. Japanese Yen bets fall sharply

December 9, 2012 – Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, decreased their US dollar long positions to a total of $920.79 million on December 4th from a total long position of $8.01 billion…

Energy Sector Storm Brewing – Oil & Gas Stocks

Oil and gas along with their equities have been underperforming for the most part of 2012 and they are still under heavy selling pressure. I watch the oil futures chart very closely…

In 1929, Deflation Started in Europe Before Overtaking the U.S.

Indeed, the European Central Bank recently initiated a new bond buying plan, the Bank of Japan just expanded its asset purchase and loan program…

 TODAY’S HEADLINES:

See more at CountingPips.com

Improve your Elliott wave pattern identification skills with this lesson from Jeffrey Kennedy

By Elliott Wave International

Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Among Elliott wave traders, you will likely find an especially high percentage of investors and traders who incorporate moving averages into their Wave analysis.

Here’s why: you can use moving averages to identify Elliott waves.

Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy knows how to take complex trading methods and teach them in a way you can immediately understand and apply — his step-by-step tutorials are beneficial to traders at any level of experience. Jeffrey is also well-known for combining ancillary technical tools to strengthen his Elliott wave analysis.

The following lesson provides a powerful example of how moving averages can strengthen your ability to identify Elliott Patterns. It is excerpted from Jeffrey’s free 10-page eBook, How You Can Find High-Probability Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages. (Click here to get your copy of this free eBook now.)

If you’re new to the Wave Principle, I recommend using a moving average to get you started, and the reason why is that a moving average overlaid on a price chart will help train your eye to see developing Elliott wave patterns.

For an example of a schematic Elliott wave, look at the figure below:

If you’ve read The Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost, you know that wave patterns are illustrated as line diagrams.

When you look at a real price chart rather than a schematic, the basic chart is typically an open-high-low-close price chart. Each price bar represents a single period and is illustrated by a vertical line with a small mark to the left and a small mark to the right as seen in the next figure:

The little lower line on the left-hand side of the vertical bar is the open; the little upper line on the right-hand side of the vertical line is the close; the top of the line is the day’s high or that trading period’s extreme; and the bottom of the line is that trading period’s low.

Here’s the thing: Whenever you’re making the transition from looking at a textbook diagram to actually counting Elliott waves on a real price chart, it can be confusing to the eye. If you use a moving average, it will help you to see the wave pattern more easily.

Let me prove my case more thoroughly with this chart of Corn:

The blue line is an 8-period simple moving average of the close, which clearly shows that a five-wave decline has unfolded from the upper left-hand side of this price chart. With the aid of a moving average, the subdivisions within this selloff are more easily discernible than with the untrained naked eye.

Also, notice that the slope of the move up in wave 4 is shallow. This detail is important because one of the key characteristics of countertrend price action is that it moves slowly, thus its slope will be inherently more shallow than what one can expect to encounter when a motive wave is in force.

 

Learn How to Trade the Highest Probability Opportunities: Moving AveragesNo matter what your level of experience in the markets, you’ll be amazed at how quickly you can benefit when you include moving averages in your Elliott wave analysis. Now you can learn how to apply them to your trading and investing in this free 10-page eBook. Learn step-by-step how moving averages can help you find high-probability trading opportunities.Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now >>

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – US lawmakers will meet today in Washington to discuss the fiscal cliff issue which has shown signs of being averted. Barrack Obama, the US President, and House Speaker John Boehner are discussing the issue in a bid to prevent the spending cuts and tax increases from taking effects. Obama sounded conciliatory when he made his first comments in Daimler AG plant in Michigan yesterday since meeting with Boehner on December 9. The President indicated that he was ready to come to agreement on the issue.

According to Julian Zelizer, who is a professor of history and public affairs in New Jersey at Princeton University, there has been an obvious change of tone from both the President and the office of the House Speaker. Julian indicated that it is possible the president is preparing his party for a possible deal to avert the crisis. There are private talks that have been going on between the Obama administration and Boehner’s aides, but there has been an outcry from both sides in the media that the other should give in first. Members of congress are now waiting for Obama and Boehner to agree and they will decide whether to pass it in congress or not.

Michael Steel, Boehner’s spokesperson and Ohio Republican said that they are waiting for the president to identify the spending cuts he is proposing as part of the balanced approach he promised Americans during the election. The president and Democratic lawmakers have continued to insist that Republicans accept higher tax rates for the high-end earners before proposing spending cuts. Talking at the Daimler AG’s Detroit Diesel unit in Michigan, Obama noted that he was pushing to have the agreement reached as part of his economic growth, deficit reduction and creation of job plan. The fiscal cliff threatens to push the world’s largest economy into a recession if it is not averted.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Tuesday 11 December 2012, 07:30 EST

THE WHOLESALE gold price rose to $1712 an ounce Tuesday morning in London, a few Dollars above where they started the week, while stocks edged higher and US Treasury bonds fell ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

All-but-one of 49 economists polled by news agency Bloomberg predict the Fed will buy US Treasury bonds in addition to the $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed securities purchases announced in September.

“It’s going to be massive and open-ended in size,” says Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist Joseph LaVorgna.

“[Fed policymakers] view this stimulus as what’s needed to sustain the economy,” agrees John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

“If the Fed comes out with $45 billion of bond purchases [as some analysts have suggested], it could be the spark we need for another gold rally,” says Matthew Turner, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi.

“Previous episodes of quantitative easing have seen a gold rally. The policy should increase inflationary expectations, and gold acts as a hedge against inflation.”

“People have realized that what the Fed has been doing is damaging to price stability,” adds Dominic Schnider at UBS Wealth Management, citing strong gold coin sales from the US Mint last month.

The Federal Open Market Committee may on balance become more inclined towards accommodative monetary policy in 2013, Reuters reports, when Chicago Fed president Charles Evans and Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengren become voting members.

Elsewhere in Washington, “there is no deal of anything like it” on the so-called fiscal cliff, according to a Republican leadership aide quoted by Reuters, following further negotiations between the White House and the office of House of Representatives speaker John Boehner Monday.

Silver meantime hovered just above $33 an ounce Tuesday morning in London, in line with where it started the week, as other industrial commodities edged higher.

Over in Italy, prime minister Mario Monti has followed policies “that were too German-centric”, his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi said Tuesday.

“All the economic statistics have worsened,” Berlusconi added in an interview with Canale 5, a television station he owns.

Berlusconi has said he will run in February’s election, while Monti, an unelected technocrat, has not yet announced his decision.

In Hong Kong meantime, premiums paid to above the spot price to buy gold rose to a five-month high Tuesday, dealers said.

“Chinese buying has been picking up,” says Dick Poon, Hong Kong general manager at precious metals refiner Heraeus.

“The banks want to keep some inventory and prepare for the holiday demand around the [Chinese] Lunar New Year [in February].”

Since refineries tend to close over Christmas and New year in the West “there probably won’t be much supply around until mid-January,” adds Ronald Leung at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers.

China’s new loans and M2 money supply were lower than most analysts expected last month, according to data published Tuesday.

“M2 has mirrored economic activity,” says Xianfang Ren, Beijing-based senior analyst at IHS Global Insight.

“We’ve felt all along that China wouldn’t have a strong recovery, that there would be a lot of volatility along the way.”

South Africa’s gold production in October was half what it was a year earlier after a series of strikes and protests by mineworkers, according to data from Statistics South Africa.

Turkey meantime  would have fallen into recession during the third quarter were it not for its gold exports, most of which go to Iran or the United Arab Emirates, according to Capital Economics chief emerging markets economist Neil Shearing.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

With no major economic reports expected today from North America, market participants speculate on the announcement from the Federal Reserve and the effect on the US dollar opposite the Canadian currency. Traders likewise continue to wait for hints from both Democrats and Republicans on the progress of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

A Bloomberg survey of economists states that the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to amplify record accommodation tomorrow in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 Trillion. The monetary policy panel pledged in October to continue that plan until the labor market improves “substantially.”

The central bank is scheduled to end Operation Twist this month. The program swaps $45 Billion of short-term Treasuries each month for longer-term government debt, which has kept the total size of the balance sheet unchanged. Meanwhile, what economists are expecting from a probable new accommodation through new Treasury purchases would expand the balance sheet.

Roberto Perli, a Managing Director at International Strategy & Investment Group Inc. comments that by adding Treasury purchases, policy makers “would continue to lower mortgage rates and create conditions that would be favorable for a continued recovery in the housing market.”

Mortgage bond purchases by the Fed have helped revive the housing market by pushing down the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage last month to a record 3.31 percent. Policy makers “do not want mortgage rates to climb much higher,” said John Lonski, Chief Economist for Moody’s Capital Markets Group in New York. “They will do their utmost to keep long-term borrowing costs on the low side.”

Treasury purchases would constitute “insurance that if there’s a failure to agree between Congress and the president, the Fed is out there to prevent an even bigger downdraft,” says John Silvia, Chief Economist at Wells Fargo & Co.

A sell bias is suggested for the USDCAD today, considering the likely demand for risk on speculations of the Fed’s actions tomorrow. Technical price corrections are still likely, though.

For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions.

Source: ForexYard

The euro came within reach of a two-week low vs. the US dollar yesterday, amid news that the Italian Prime Minister plans on resigning. Investors, unsure of how the news would affect the euro-zone economic recovery, shifted their funds to safe-haven assets as a result. Today, in addition to any news regarding the political situation in Italy, both the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and US Trade Balance, scheduled to be released at 10:00 and 13:30 GMT, respectively, have the potential to generate market volatility.

Economic News

USD – US Trade Balance Set to Impact Dollar

The US dollar was bearish overall yesterday, amid the continued deadlock in “fiscal cliff” negotiations between US Congressional leaders and President Obama. If the negotiations fail to progress, a set of tax increases and budget cuts threaten to push the US back into recession. Against the safe-haven Japanese yen, the greenback fell some 40 pips during European trading, eventually trading as low as 82.11, before moving back up to the 82.20 level. The USD/CHF fell close to 30 pips during mid-day trading, eventually reaching the 0.9330 level.

Turning to today, the main piece of US news is likely to be the Trade Balance figure, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Analysts are predicting the indicator to come in at -42.4B, which would represent a decrease over last month. A worse than expected indicator today could result in the dollar extending its bearish trend against both the JPY and CHF. Additionally, traders will want to pay attention to any announcements regarding the “fiscal cliff” negotiations, as they are likely to impact the dollar.

EUR – Euro-Zone Uncertainties Weigh Down on Euro

Following the announcement that the Italian Prime Minister would soon be resigning, investors spent most of the day yesterday trying to determine how the news would affect the euro-zone economic recovery. As a result, the euro fell within reach of a two-week low against both the USD and JPY, before seeing modest upward movement later in the day. After falling as low as 1.2894 during the overnight session, the EUR/USD was able to bounce back to 1.2930 during mid-day trading. Against the yen, the euro traded as low as 106.04 before moving back to the 106.34 level later in the day.

Today, the main piece of euro-zone news is likely to be the German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure, scheduled to be released at 10:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting the indicator to come in at -11.4, slightly higher than last month’s result of -15.7. Better than expected news today, could calm investor fears that the ECB is considering an interest rate cut, which would lead to risk taking in the marketplace and bullish movement for the euro.

Gold – Gold Sees Modest Gains amid US Economic Uncertainties

The price of gold was able to advance close to $10 an ounce during European trading yesterday, as concerns regarding the impending US “fiscal cliff” boosted gold’s safe-haven status among investors. After trading as high as $1717.29 during mid-day trading, the precious metal dropped back to the $1713 level by the end of the European session.

Today, gold traders will want to pay attention to the ongoing budget negotiations between US Congressional leaders and President Obama. Any sign that a deal is closer to being reached may result in dollar gains, which could result in the price of gold falling as a result.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Reverses Gains amid Risk Aversion

After seeing mild gains throughout the first part of the day yesterday, crude oil proceeded to turn bearish toward the end of European trading, as concerns regarding the EU and US economies drove investors to safe-haven assets. The price of oil peaked at $86.60, up close to $0.40 a barrel, before falling to the $86.05 level during afternoon trading.

Today, crude oil traders will want to pay attention to the US Trade Balance figure, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Should the indicator come in above analyst expectations, it may be taken as a sign that US demand for oil will increase, which may cause the commodity to turn bullish during afternoon trading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are beginning to narrow, indicating that this pair could see a price shift in the near future. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart is close to forming a bearish cross, signaling that the price shift could be downward. Going short may be a wise choice for this pair.

GBP/USD

Most long-term technical indicators show that this pair is range trading at the moment, making a definitive trend difficult to predict. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

The weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross, signaling an impending downward correction. Furthermore, the same chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed over into overbought territory. Opening short positions may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

While the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has crossed over into overbought territory, most other long-term technical indicators show this pair range trading at this time. Taking a wait and see approach may be the preferred strategy at this time, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

The Wild Card

USD/ZAR

The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bullish cross, indicating that an upward correction could take place in the near future. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range has fallen into the oversold zone. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible upward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Australian dollar dropped from its two-month high as Chinese export data showed worse performance than the economists had projected. The country’s exports and imports were lower than expected advancing speculation of dwindling global economy and damping the demand for Australian dollar. The Aussie also pared last week’s gains after home-loans approvals increased less than economists had predicted. New Zealand’s dollar’s demand was supported by data from manufacturing sector that indicated the nation’s manufacturing volumes increased. The two south pacific currencies jumped to their highest level in three weeks versus the euro after Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister swore to defeat the incumbent leader Mario Monti.

According to Lee Wai Tuck, a Singapore-based currency strategist at Forecast Pte, the Chinese data was a disappointment to the market despite the strong data that had been coming from the country in the recent past. Lee added that yesterday’s data from China has cast a shadow on the economic recovery process. He questioned whether the rebound in economy that has been experience in the last few reports can be sustained and whether Chinese demand for Australian goods will continue. The Australian sovereign bonds dropped as benchmark ten-year yield rose by 0.03 percentage point to 3.15 percent.

Data from China indicated that the country’s exports increased by 2.9 percent in November from a year earlier while the imports remained unchanged and trade surplus was at $19.6 billion. According to the report released by customs administration in Beijing yesterday, the growth in the overseas shipments compares with the 9 percent projected by economists. The Australian dollar dropped by 0.1 percent at the close of day on Friday 8, after increasing by 0.6 percent in the week. The Australian dollar was trading at $1.0476. The currency rose to 81.48 euro cents, which is the strongest since November 20. The New Zealand dollar advanced by 0.1 percent to trade at 83.29 US cents and fetched 68.63 from last week’s 68.68.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

Hey Everyone,

Below are some market trends for today.

Good luck!

-Dan

Gold- May see upward movement today
Support- 1702.04
Resistance- 1724.54

Silver- May see upward movement today
Support- 32.59
Resistance- 33.68

Crude Oil- May see downward movement today
Support- 84.47
Resistance-87.00

Dax 30- May see downward movement today
Support- 7465.18
Resistance- 7547.00

EUR/USD May see downward movement today
Support- 1.2859
Resistance- 1.3038

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Speculations that the US Federal Reserve will expand its monetary easing program after they finish meeting later this week resulted in slight dollar losses during the overnight session. At the same time, worse than expected Chinese news led to risk aversion in the marketplace which limited the dollar’s losses.

Concerns regarding the euro-zone economic recovery, combined with the Chinese news, led to moderate losses in gold and silver prices last night. Meanwhile, crude oil gained some $0.30 a barrel during early morning trading.

Main News for Today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment- 10:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at -11.4, which if true, would be the seventh month straight of negative economic sentiment in the EU’s biggest economy
• Worse than expected news could result in euro losses during mid-day trading

US Trade Balance- 13:30 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at -42.7B, below last month’s -41.5B
• Worse than expected news could result in dollar losses during afternoon trading

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.