Month: December 2012

By Elliott Wave International

In the wake of the Presidential election, the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) reports that the study, “Social Mood, Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections” has earned the #3 spot among the most-downloaded papers in the past 12 months.

The SSRN eLibrary is one of the world’s leading social science resources and includes 430,000 paper abstracts from 200,000 authors. It has delivered close to 56 million downloads, and last year it received over 66,000 new submissions.

Among those submissions: the elections paper written by a team from the Socionomics Institute.

Authored by Robert R. Prechter, Jr., Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker and Matthew Lampert, the study amounted to a bold challenge to conventional wisdom about the factors that predict presidential re-election outcomes.

“We demonstrated a counter-intuitive point about what matters, what doesn’t and why,” Prechter said.

Watch a FREE video presentation by Bob Prechter now!

Historians and political scientists have long argued that gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment and inflation have great bearing on presidential elections. So Prechter et.al. tested those ideas. They studied every presidential re-election campaign dating back to George Washington’s successful bid in 1792. And what they found was amazing.

“GDP was a significant predictor in some of the simple models,” said Deepak Goel, “but it was rendered insignificant when we combined it with the stock market in multiple regression analyses. Inflation and unemployment had no predictive value in any of our tests.”

So what does matter?

The stock market. Specifically, they found that the stock market’s performance for the three years prior to Election Day does predict elections. But an even bigger finding came when they examined the question of whether or not money made or lost in the market had any effect.

“We contrasted eras when stocks were widely owned vs. hardly owned, and there was no difference in results,” Robert Prechter said.

They ruled out GDP, unemployment, inflation and money made or lost in the market as factors. That left only one. Matt Lampert explained:

“The best explanation is that the trend of social mood is important in driving the valuations of both stocks and presidents.”

Watch a FREE presentation on the paper — given by Bob Prechter himself — at the 2012 Social Mood Conference. Simply follow this link >>

And you can also download the paper free from SSRN.

Source: ForexYard

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Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Uruguay’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 25 basis points to 9.25 percent in an attempt to rein in inflation and keep inflationary expectations in check.
     Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU), which also raised rates at its previous meeting in September, said the country’s economy was continuing to grow at a reasonable pace, propelled by higher exports and services, rising private investment and strong domestic demand.
    But inflation is the central risk facing Uruguay’s economy and “both the actual inflation rate as well as agents’ expectations remain well above the target range,” BCU said in statement.
    Uruguay’s Gross Domestic Product rose by 1.2 percent in the third quarter from the second for annual growth of 3 percent, down from a second quarter rate of 3.8 percent.
     The inflation rate in October rose to a new high for the year at 9.1 percent compared with September’s 8.6 percent, well above the central bank’s 4-6 percent target range.
    The bank has now raised rates by a total of 50 basis points this year.
    BCU said the global economic context still looks weak and uncertain and it expects international interest rates to remain “extremely low for the policy horizon with predictable consequences for capital flows.”

    The central bank has often warned about the inflow of international capital in search of higher yields that tends to put upward pressure on host currencies, making their exporters less competitive. However, a higher valued currency also tends to hold back inflation as import prices fall.
    The central bank added that commodity prices remain high and this is leading to inflationary pressures despite the slowdown in emerging economies.

    www.CentralBankNews.info
   

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Dear Reader,

Christmas is finally over and 2012 is almost over too.

For the final edition of Money Weekend we’ve brought you a taste of this year’s most popular articles (and more).

There’s plenty of food for thought below, but only 2013 and beyond can really tell us how it will all stand up.

But see what you think!

Here’s to a great new year for you.

Enjoy,

Callum Newman

Editor, Money Weekend

The Sales Secret that Screams DANGER for Australian Banks in 2013

Find out why this salesman’s ‘tie down’ technique virtually guarantees Australia’s budget will end up in the red next year…

The funny thing is, thanks to this trick most Aussies will support it!

If This Red Flag Goes Up For This Doomed Currency, Buy it!

History says paper currencies always die.

Here we predict one currency heading towards destruction…and why you should keep an eye on it.

How to Survive the Implosion of the Australian Economy in 2013

Hard-hitting film exposes three coming ‘detonations’ in the Australian financial system.

Why China Wants a Higher Gold Price Later, Not Sooner

The Chinese are as gold hungry as ever.

They’re the world’s biggest gold producer…the largest gold buyer…and not one single ounce leaves their shores.

Find out what’s really going on here.

A Tale of Oil and African Pirates

For all the talk about replacing oil as an energy source, it’s still the world’s most important form of energy. That means high prices are here to stay.

But it’s not just Middle East dictators who will pocket the profits. Aussie companies investing in new energy frontiers are set to profit too.

The Most Important Aussie You’ve Never Even Heard Of

You’d think the man who made one of Australia’s greatest family fortunes, and changed the world in the process, would be a household name.

But most people haven’t even heard of him.

Today we reveal his story.

Lies Lies Lies!

You can never really protect yourself from this government DECEPTION….but you can minimise its impact.

Here we discuss one proven way to protect yourself from the Great Wealth Destroyer.

Could These Four Cash-Paying Income Stocks Save Your Retirement?

They have the power to pay out thousands in cash every year…even if their share price drops.

All is revealed right here.

This week I gave my Macro Trader readers a prediction. But that prediction wasn’t just for 2013…

Neil Armstrong said, “Science has not yet mastered prophecy. We predict too much for the next year and yet far too little for the next ten.”

Neil Armstrong died on Aug. 25, 2012, and closed a chapter in our great book of science and innovation. But this quote reaches into economic forecasting, too.

I told my readers:

For the past five years we’ve been worrying about the next quarter or two without a care in the world for what will happen in the next decade. As we head into the new year, we carry with us the threatening promise from our Federal Reserve to cheapen our dollar until unemployment falls to a “reasonable” level.

We carry with us the fear of impending economic disaster.

Will we be talking about the fiscal cliff in 10 years? Sure, but in the same context as the dot-com bubble, or the stock market crash in 1987.

We will have moved on.

And all those predictions for 2013 will have been a blip on the screen.

I’d rather talk about what the world will look like in 2023…

In 2023, emerging market middleweight cities will contribute more to global growth than the developed world and global mega-cities. Over the next 10 years, more than 230 million households will earn more than $20,000 in the developing world. That’s up from only 80 million in 2007. In other words, an extra $3.1 trillion worth of consumption will hit the markets in developing economies.

But through a combination of consumption and investment, emerging markets could contribute nearly 50% of the world’s GDP.

And many of these markets are already pulling wealth from Western developed countries and shifting it East… and South.

I’ve already picked out one country for my Macro Trader subscribers to watch, but it’s not the only one.

Let me give you the secret to finding out which countries will be game changers over the next decade.

It’s not just about money… It’s about people.

Demographics will play the biggest role in the economics of growth markets. The one segment we should be paying attention to is the number of people on the verge of the middle class.

The McKinsey Global Institute predicts that there will be more than 4 billion members of the “consumer class” by 2025, and half of them will live in emerging market cities.

Three cities with an annual income of $20,000 or more, with large numbers of working-age people are Mexico City, Istanbul and Cairo.

Of course, you’ve also got Mumbai, Shanghai, Beijing, Sao Paolo, and a couple other cities in well-known emerging markets. But Mexico City, Istanbul and Cairo might get you thinking about other areas of the world with growing demographics and climbing incomes.

One of my favorite companies in Mexico that we’re holding in Macro Trader is Empresas ICA, S.A.B de C.V. (ICA:NYSE). It’s a construction company that does a lot of civil works, like hydroelectric dams and airports, and also builds a lot of housing. Shares have climbed as high as $10.28 recently, and we’ve locked in gains of more than 24% since mid-September.

But shares have pulled back over the past week, and you might have a good chance to get in on this temporary move.

Another Mexican company that really takes advantage of demographics is FEMSA – Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX:NYSE), a beverage and beer company that holds the right to bottle Coke in Mexico and other Latin American countries, and is just getting into the drugstore business. But right now, this company is pretty expensive. It’s been on a fantastic run since the bottom of 2008.

View Larger Chart

The company put up some great numbers for its third quarter… double-digit growth in total revenue and income from operations across all three of its business segments.

This company’s key statistics aren’t that far out of line with others in the industry, but judging by the chart movements, I think you could probably get in at a better price if you wait a couple months. This would be a prudent move as we head into the new year anyway.

Mexico – though very different economically from the U.S. – has a strong sympathetic response to financial news here in the States. Check on this company again in late January or early February.

Happy Investing,

Sara

P.S. A debt-fueled “Super-Bubble” — over 25 years in the making — is bearing down on the global financial markets. The devastation will be fierce, and will forever change what people think about investing, savings, and retirement. But within this crisis exists a remarkable opportunity that will likely create a new wave of millionaires. Will you be one of them? Follow this link to secure your chance at a mega fortune…

Other Related Articles:

• Don’t Play the Market, Buy the Market
• Big Money in Beer
• Honey, I Zombified the Kids

By www.CentralBankNews.info     Angola’s central bank kept its base rate (BNA) steady at 10.25 percent against a backdrop of stable inflation and kwanza exchange rates.
    The National Bank of Angola said credit to the economy returned to growth in November, continuing the trend from previous months. Loans in local currency represent almost 60 percent of total credit to the economy.
     Angola’s inflation rate was largely steady in November, with prices up 0.93 percent from the previous month for an annual rate of  9.83 percent compared with October’s 9.76 percent rate.
    The prices for Housing, Water and Electricity, Gas and Fuel; Transportation; Food and non-alcoholic beverages recording the largest price changes, the central bank said.

    Angola’s central bank last cut its rates in January and the decline in inflation to a single-digit level has been its aim for many years.
  The average exchange rate of the kwanza to the U.S. dollar was at 95.712 at the end of November, “reflecting the stability observed since the beginning of the year,” the central bank said, repeating its statement from last month.

    Interest rates on government bonds also eased during November, the bank said, with the LUIBOR overnight rate at 6.25 percent and 3 and 12 month rates at 8.53 percent and 10.56 percent, respectively.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By The Sizemore Letter

High dividend stocks were all the rage in 2011 and 2012, as yield-starved investors hunted for income where they could find it.

Yet two of the sectors best known as “high yield” sectors—utilities ($XLU) and telecom ($XTL)—are on track for a sub-par 2012 (the utilities sector is actually negative for the year).  It’s not particularly hard to see why.  For slow-growth sectors, both have become expensive relative to the broader market.

Utilities yield just over 4% as a sector, which is nearly double the yield on the S&P 500 and more than double the yield on the 10-year Treasury.  But in terms of cash payout, you’re not going to be getting significantly more next year than you did this year.  Utilities do grow their dividends over time, but they tend to do so slowly.

Don’t get me wrong; I’d prefer to take a basket of utilities stocks, equity risk and all, over most bonds at current yields.  The uncertainty of the equities markets beats the virtually guaranteed losses that bond investors face, particularly after inflation.

Yet the yield is only part of the story.  Dividends are about more than just current income.  They are about quality.  Which brings me to my recommendation this week: the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSE: $VIG). 

Fig. 1: VIG vs. SPY

For a “dividend focused” ETF, VIG yields a relatively puny 2%.  But unlike bond coupon payments or slow-growth utilities or telecom stocks, VIG’s cash payout will almost certainly be significantly higher in the years ahead.

You see, in order to be a holding of VIG, a company has to have at least ten consecutive years of rising dividends behind it.  These are growth stocks, not cash cows for widows and orphans.

Yet at the same time, the holdings are generally high enough quality to be held by widows and orphans.  Think about it.  If you’re able to raise your dividend throughout the 2008-2009 meltdown and recession, your company must be bulletproof.

VIG is stuffed full of the highest-quality companies in America; Wal-Mart (NYSE: $WMT), Coca-Cola (NYSE: $KO) and IBM (NYSE:$IBM) are its three largest holdings, to drop a few names.  And interestingly enough, utilities and telecom together make up less than 2% of the portfolio.

VIG is not an ETF that I recommend you trade aggressively.  VIG—and the stocks that comprise it—is the sort of investment that you should use as the foundation of your core portfolio.

As we start a new year, consider ditching any S&P 500 index funds you might own and replacing them with VIG.  And for the developed international allocation of your portfolio, you might consider the PowerShares International Dividend Achievers ETF (NYSE: $PID).  It’s built on the same principles as VIG but covers developed non-U.S. markets.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long VIG, WMT and PID.  This article first appeared on TraderPlanet.

SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.

The post Make Dividend Achievers a Core Holding in 2013 appeared first on Sizemore Insights.

By www.CentralBankNews.info Central Bank News provides you with the 2013 calendar for meetings by central bank committees that decide monetary policy. The table includes scheduled meetings of over 25 of the world’s central banks. In the event that meetings by monetary policy committees take place over several days, the date listed below is for the final day when decisions are normally announced.
Work is underway to expand the number of central banks covered, including expanding the existing inflation targets table, and global interest rates table. You may replicate the table in part or in full only if you link to this page.

Source: ForexYard

Hey Everyone,

Below are some market trends for today.

Good luck!

-Dan

Gold- May see downward movement today
Support- 1651.05
Resistance- 1655.33

Silver- May see downward movement today
Support- 29.69
Resistance- 30.42

Crude Oil- May see downward movement today
Support- 89.31
Resistance-91.43

Dax 30- May see upward movement today
Support- 7613.37
Resistance- 7700.00

EUR/USD May see downward movement today
Support- 1.3085
Resistance- 1.3280

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar shot up to a fresh two-year high against the yen during overnight trading, as speculations that the Bank of Japan will initiate aggressive monetary easing policies in the near future weighed down on the Japanese currency.

The euro saw slight upward movement against the dollar during the Asian session as investor hopes that US lawmakers can reach a budget deal before the end of the year boosted riskier assets. All eyes will be on a meeting between President Obama and Congressional leaders today to see if any progress in negotiations has been made.

Main News for Today

US Pending Home Sales-15:00 GMT
• Analysts are forecasting the home sales figure to come in substantially lower than last month’s
• Worse than expected data today could weigh down on the dollar during afternoon trading

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.