The Federal Reserve’s Magic Act is Destroying America

By MoneyMorning.com.au

When it comes to the Federal Reserve, it’s not a matter of what you see is what you get. It’s more a matter of what you don’t see is what you’ll end up getting.

Getting, as in up the you-know-what!

I’m talking about getting socialism shoved up our capitalist backsides, for one thing.

It’s simple: We are about to go over the so-called fiscal cliff. Why? Because Congress can’t figure out how to stop spending money it doesn’t have.

Forget the whole revenue side of the equation. It’s only part of the mix of fixes, and the only fix that matters ain’t fixed.

Stop spending money you don’t have and you don’t have to tax people more to pay for a bunch of crap they don’t need, don’t want, and don’t even know they’re getting.

Oh, that would be because on top of what we are getting there’s even more that we’re not getting.

Congress’ paymasters are getting pork and beans for whatever they want because that’s how our Congress gets elected, by greasing the wheels of insiders to get taxpayer money for their private purses, enough to plentifully pay for campaigns.

But that’s only the ‘private’ side of spending.

The spending scheme has mushroomed by expanding (and paying sickeningly outrageous wages and benefits) an ever-growing number of government workers.

And by expanding entitlements beyond what we are entitled to. And by expanding welfare and ‘social programs’.

Yes, I am including 99 weeks of unemployment, and accompanying food stamps, and free money for unwed mothers to have more kids so they can collect more free money, and free day care, and all the other free stuff that ain’t free if someone is paying for it.

All that spending creates a class of people, a voting class. And, guess what they vote for?

Duh, that would be more free stuff.

So what’s this got to do with the Fed?

I’m glad you asked…

Just Like Magic

Because Congress wants to glad-hand out these freebies, the private ones and the public ones, to get votes and all the personal wealth that comes with their political positions.

And they do not want to take away anything with the other hand (that would be raise taxes to pay for their spending), so they wink at the Federal Reserve, and lo and behold the Fed prints the money to pay for it all.

It’s just like magic. No, it is magic.

Congress spends and doesn’t have the money to pay up. So it borrows. It borrows from the Fed, people!

If there was no Fed to print money and give it to Congress, the crooks on the Hill wouldn’t get away with what they take for granted as their political right, which is to spend money they don’t have to pay us to keep them in office.

The Fed stripped off its cloak of invisibility and said they were going to keep easing (how low can rates go?). In fact, they are going to step up their Treasury bond buying spree.

Our government doesn’t have any money, but needs billions every day, so the Fed simply winks at them, they issue debt in the form of bonds, and the Fed buys them all up.

Revenue problem solved!

So under what authority does the Fed operate? How do they have the right to print money and pay for stuff that Congress didn’t get permission from the public for (because they didn’t come to us and ask if they could raise taxes on us to spend money on what they think is good for themselves)?

Oh, that right was given to them… by Congress.

Back in 1977 Congress gave the Fed a ‘dual mandate’. They said, besides your job to ‘maintain price stability and preserve the currency as a store of value’, we now want you to ‘promote effectively the goal of maximum employment’.

And just like that (it actually started back in 1946, but that’s another story for another time) the Fourth Branch of Government was officially sanctified.

Screw the Public, Feed the Banks

The Fed says we’re going to keep the printing presses running to fund Congress’ schemes (what fiscal cliff?) until unemployment is 6.5%, or inflation is above 2.5%, or until all the banks in America that control us and Congress tell us to stop because they have enough profits to buy more politicians and relax more rules and fund their next gigantic scam.

What the Fed calls more ‘transparency’ in articulating their new monetary policy guidance schemes is nothing more than tearing off one cloak of invisibility only to find another underneath.

Which unemployment measure are they going to look at? How are they going to interpret U6, or how many people are counted or not counted in the ranks of people in the job market? Does the birth/death model need to be looked at, or ignored?

Targeting unemployment is their way of saying there’s not going to be enough money for banks to get really fat again if spending is cut back, or if taxes rise, so we’re going to do what we do, which is screw the public and feed the banks.

About that inflation in our future, we’ll worry about it when we get there. About that preserving the currency thing, we’ll worry about it when we get there.

The Fed only cares that its puppet masters (that would be the big banks and maybe all the banks) have enough money to lend (to the government) to collect their interest to enslave the population into paying them back by socializing America to keep them fat.

You see, in capitalism, the banks would be allowed to fail. And fail they would. But in a socialist world, failure is not an option.

Starting to get it?

Shah Gilani
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Money Morning (USA)

From the Archives…

Why Small-Cap Stocks Could Be Your Best Investment in 2013
14-12-2012 – Kris Sayce

How the Global Oil Grab Affects You…
13-12-2012 – Byron King

The Price of Risk in the Stock Market
12-12-2012 – Murray Dawes

Why Silver Could Be the Best Investment in 2013
11-12-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Long, Drawn Out Retreat in Australian House Prices
10-12-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Getting Coal in Your Stocking May Be Exactly What You Want

By Chris Vermeulen – www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

We all want new and exciting electronic gizmos and gadgets for the holiday season. Unfortunately they have the tendency to lose almost all their value within weeks because of newer versions etc… but what if you just got a lump of dirty old coal in your stocking, how would you feel?

The only individuals who would appreciate a dirty gift like that would be those forward looking investors who see major opportunities before they become the next big movers and headline news.

Knowing how to spot Stage 1 patterns is one of the most important bits of information you need to know as an investor. This one pattern is how I found RIMM which now up 100% in the past 30 days, ANR up 30% in two weeks, FSLR up 20% in 20 days and the list goes one. My main focus is on ETFs because of lower risk they provide but very powerful when applied to individual stocks.

Coal and coal stocks have been out of favor for almost two years now. But these unwanted and hated shares may soon be owned by the masses, or at least by traders and investors. A few weeks ago to I talked about the four stages all investments go through and which patters you must be able to spot in order to make huge money investing while having very limited downside risk.

You can read about them here where I used Apple and Research In Motion shares as my example: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/collapse-of-apple-rise-of-the-blackberries-stock-market-cycle/

In summary, Trade with the BIG BOARD and only focusing on buying stocks, ETFs etc… as they are coming out of a Stage 1 Accumulation Basing Pattern. This puts the odds greatly in your favor for not only winning the majority of your trades but to generate above average returns.

 

The BIG BOARD – NYSE – Weekly Major Stock Market Trend

The New York Stock Exchange is the big board. This chart formed a reversal candle last week which points to lower prices. Its likely we see a 1-2 week dip before buyers step back in. Until then individual stocks should pause or form mini bull flags until the sellers are finished and buyers step back into risk on assets (equities).

NYSEWeekly

 

Coal Sector ETF Showing Stage 1 Basing Pattern

Coal stocks have been bouncing bottom for some time and if you did not review the Stages Report using the link above then do so now so you know what to expect in detail.

KOL coal exchange traded fund is a basket of coal companies and is starting to show signs of a new bull market. A breakout and close above $26.00 should trigger strong buying with the potential of a 21% gain before it hits my first price target. This could go way past that but one target at a time folks.

Naturally I would like to see a bull flag or pause in KOL over the next couple weeks, then look to get long using the pivot low of that pause/bull flag as my protective stop. I’m not jumping in here as the broad market looks ready to correct and ¾ stocks follow the big board which will pull KOL down.

KOLBase

 

ANR – My Top Coal Stock Pick

I pointed out ANR at $7.50 at the beginning of December to followers as it was the best looking coal stock I could find. The two key indicators “Price” and “Volume” were clearly pointing to higher prices and the potential gain even if it was just played up to the Stage 1 Resistance Level still netted a 30% move. Crazy part is that there is the potential for a 100% rally to my first price target. Follow my free ideas here live: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

ANRCoal

 

You want Gizmos or Coal in You’re Stocking???

In short, I really like the coal sector for the first quarter of 2013. I’m not too worried about the fiscal cliff as it’s not the end of the world and the US along with most other countries are all bankrupt together in my opinion. New rules and ideas will be implemented and life and business will continue… I am not to worried.

I am expecting stocks to continue sideways or higher into May at which time a serious correction could take place. But not to worry as we take things one week at time and will be adjusting my outlook accordingly.

Get My Trade Ideas & Alerts Delivered To Your Inbox: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

 

Prechter: “This is Not a Picture of a Bull Market”

The three-and-a-half-year rally has occurred on declining volume

By Elliott Wave International

What a comeback for the Dow Industrials!

From a March 9, 2009, close of 6,547, the senior index climbed to 13,610 on Oct. 5, 2012.

Moreover, the Dow achieved this feat in the face of a weak-kneed economy, and it has grinded forward now for three and a half years.

The persistent rise has emboldened stock market prognosticators.

S&P Could Still Hit 1,600 Year-End

–CNBC, Oct. 23

All the while, fewer and fewer investors have been participating in the so-called recovery.

Take a look at the chart below from the just-published October 2012 special video Elliott Wave Theorist, and then read Prechter’s commentary.

People have started ignoring volume because bears have been talking about declining volume ever since 2010. But it is extremely important. Volume overall has been shrinking ever since the market’s low of March 2009. This line that I’ve drawn tracks the volume on the rising portions of the rally from 2009. Every time the market gets hit very hard-such as in the collapse of 2008, the “flash crash” of May 2010 and the market plunge in August last year-volume picks up.

This is not a picture of a bull market. In a bull market, the opposite happens. Volume should be going up during the entire period, and it should be declining every time the market corrects. But we’re getting exactly the opposite situation.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, October 2012

Volume is an important momentum indicator that many overlook. It’s time to start looking at your investments independently. EWI is here to help.

 

Learn to Think IndependentlyYou’ll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International’s 30-year history; you’ll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today’s tumultuous market.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Prechter: “This is Not a Picture of a Bull Market”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

AUDUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.0585

AUDUSD has formed a cycle top at 1.0585 on 4-hour chart. Sideways movement in a range between 1.0500 and 1.0585 would likely be seen. Key support is located at the lower line of the price channel, as long as the channel support holds, the price action from 1.0585 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0287, and another rise towards 1.0624 (Sep 14 high) could be expected after consolidation. However, a clear break below the channel support will suggest that the uptrend from 1.0287 had completed at 1.0585 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 1.0000 zone.

audusd

Daily Forex Forecast

Chicago PMI to be Driving Force Behind the USD

Source: ForexYard

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10:00 GMT – EUR – Unemployment Rate

– Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

– The all-European unemployment rate is based on figures from other countries that have already released their unemployment results. Still, this number is important to Europe’s policy makers.

– The unemployment rate is rising steadily in Europe, edging up 0.1% each month. Also this time, it’s predicted to rise by 0.1%, from 9.6% to 9.7%.

12:30 GMT – CAD – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

– Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health

– The long months of contraction stopped two months ago with a rise of 0.1% in the GDP. The economy is expected to rise this time by 0.1%.

– This is the most important event for the Canadian economy this week. Any outcome will move the Canadian Dollar.

13:45 GMT – USD – Chicago PMI

– Survey of purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories

– It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy.

– Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below this figure indicates contraction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Market Review 15.11.12

Source: ForexYard

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The yen dropped to a 6 ½ month low against the US dollar in early morning trading today, after Japan’s opposition party leader, who is now favored to win in elections next month, said that he favored a policy of additional monetary easing. The USD/JPY, which currently stands at 80.83, has gained more than 100 pips in the last 24 hours.

The euro saw very modest gains against the dollar during Asian trading, as investors remained cautiously optimistic that Greece will receive a new round of bailout funds. The pair is currently at 1.2736, up close to 20 pips since last night.

Main News for Today

US Core CPI- 13:30 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 0.1%
• Any worse than expected news could result in the dollar taking further losses against the euro

US Unemployment Claims- 13:30 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 372K, slightly higher than last week
• Any higher than expected data may result in dollar losses

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index- 15:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 1.1, well below last month’s figure of 5.7
• If the figure comes in above expectations, the dollar could extend its gains against the yen

US Crude Oil Inventories- 16:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 2.5M
• A higher than expected figure could result in the price of crude oil falling during evening trading

US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks- 18:20 GMT
• Due to speak about the US housing market
• If the Fed chairman speaks optimistically about the US housing recovery, the dollar could see gains

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Weekly Technical FX Preview – GBP/USD Shifting from Bearish to Bullish

Source: ForexYard

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EUR/USD

The weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern was followed by a false breakout above the trend line falling off of the May and July highs. A pullback from this resistance line formed a doji reversal candlestick which hints at declines in the EUR/USD. The 200-week moving average looks to be the first support at 1.4025 followed by the 200-day moving average at 1.3930. The rising trend line from the May low could also be supportive at 1.3830. To the upside 1.4580 will need to hold to maintain the bearish technical picture. A close above this level could go on to test 1.4700 and this year’s high of 1.4940.

EURUSD_Weekly

GBP/USD

Three weeks of consistent gains for cable are beginning to shift the technical picture from bearish to bullish. Sterling has moved above resistance levels that otherwise would have contained the pair. The first break occurred above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at 1.6185 and the second major break occurred at 1.6370 above the previous trend line rising from the May 2010 low. Initial resistance will be the May 31st high at 1.6550 followed by the April high at 1.6745. A move lower for the GBP/USD will likely test the base at 1.6260 followed by the previously broken trend line off of the April high at 1.6140. A breach of 1.6000 could have scope towards 1.5780.

GBPUSD_Daily

USD/JPY

Yen strength has returned with a vengeance. Last week’s candlestick closed with a shaved bottom indicating momentum is to the downside. This week’s opening gapped higher but the price managed to hold below the current short term trend line from the July 20th high which comes in at 78.05. Additional resistance may be 79.60 and the 55-day moving average at 80.15 but the downside is calling. Support is found at 76.70 from last week’s low followed by the all-time low from March at 76.11. A break here and we move into uncharted territory where the psychological support at 75.00 and 70.00 come into play.

USDJPY_Daily

USD/CHF

The Swiss franc is in a similar position as the yen as the USD/CHF moves into uncharted territory. Bias remains to be short but Monday’s opening gap higher could create a Harami reversal pattern which may lead slight gains for the pair. A daily close will be needed for confirmation. Resistance is found at 0.8080 and 0.8275. A move higher to these levels would provide for potential short entries back into the long term downtrend with targets at the big round number at 0.7800.

USDCHF_Daily

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Weekly Technical FX Preview – GBP Under Pressure

Source: ForexYard

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EUR/USD

Momentum has now turned lower as falling stochastics appear on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts. Initial support comes in at the June low of 1.4075 and the May low of 1.3970. A break here and technical traders will target the 200-day moving average at 1.3860. While the 8 cent decline from the May high is a sharp drop, traders should keep in mind that the correction the pair is currently undergoing is just that, a correction. Buyers may be lurking at the rising trend line from the June 2010 low. Resistance comes in at the recent high of 1.4440 where the 50-day and 20-day moving averages are floating.

EURUSD_Daily

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD has broken a significant technical barrier at the neckline from a head and shoulders pattern which measures a target at 1.5370. Monthly and weekly stochastics are turning lower so traders may expect further declines. Support is located at the March low at 1.5935 followed by the late January low at 1.5750. To the upside the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern at 1.6120 could offer traders a level to enter short as many times in a head and shoulders chart pattern the pair will revert back to the neckline only to head lower from there.

GBPUSD_Daily

USD/JPY

Yen bears are making a stand at the 80 level. A previously broken trend line from the April high comes in at this level and will also support the bears. However, once this last bastion of support is broken the fallout could be similar the price action in March. Should the move higher continue, resistance is found at 81 and 81.75.

USDJPY_Daily

USD/CHF

The previous resistance at 0.8550 held and the all-time low at 0.8325 is continually being pressured so a break here may be in the works. An absence of supports or trend lines below this level makes it difficult to predict how low the pair could go.

USDCHF_Daily

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

Source: ForexYard

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The dollar traded lower during the New York trading session but still within defined price ranges as markets look for a new catalyst to continue the bullish run in the dollar. Later this evening the Bank of Japan will release their interest rate decision that could include additional monetary policy easing measures.

Forex rates for the dollar were mixed but overall weakness was seen after US economic data releases. Weekly unemployment claims were better than forecasted and initially the dollar benefited from the surprising jobs data. However, dollar sentiment was thwarted after the release of weaker than expected existing home sales and a significantly lower Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

The EUR/USD traded as high as 1.4322 after rising from a low of 1.4194 during the European session. Cable held its gains after strong retail sales numbers and looks to end the day near its high at 1.6229 from 1.6179. The USD/JPY fell back from a high of 82.22 to trade at its opening day price of 81.55 following the disappointing US manufacturing data. US equities were flat with the S&P 500 up only 0.07% and crude oil traded back below the $100 mark.

Forex macro news will be out later tonight with the release of the Japanese overnight call rate. No change is due to the interest rate but calls have been made for the BoJ to introduce new easing measures to assist both the recovery from the earthquake and tsunami as well as the decline in growth rates. Yesterday’s Japanese GDP numbers showed the economy is currently in a recessionary mode. While the disaster did little to help the economy, the data shows the decline in growth rates had its beginnings prior to the earthquake and tsunami. New easing measures by the Bank of Japan could send the USD/JPY higher to the retracement levels from the April to May move at 82.50 followed by 83.25.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Euro Showing Signs of Weakness, Pound Tumbles

Source: ForexYard

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The failure of the EUR/USD to advance above the 1.4900 level is beginning to slow momentum traders and profit taking in the pair has ensued. Versus the pound the euro is higher after weaker than expected UK manufacturing data. The USD/JPY is closing in on the 80 yen price, a level that could bring further intervention from the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

The euro is showing a sign of weakness as the EUR/USD treads water for the 4th day in a row. The pair has failed to move above yesterday’s high of 1.4900 and has encountered a bit of profit taking, trading as low as 1.4754 early in the morning before moving higher to 1.4780. European PPI m/m for March was in line with market expectations for an increase of 0.7%, but the reading is still the fastest increase in the past 2 ½ years. This should continue to pressure the ECB to raise interest rates again, perhaps in June or July. Currently the EUR/USD is caught in a consolidation pattern with support at 1.4750. A breach below this level could trigger stops and further selling to the 1.4650 – 1.4625 support level. The long term target remains at the 2009 high at 1.5140.

Following a disappointing Manufacturing PMI release, the pound tumbled versus both the dollar and the euro. March PMI fell to 54.6 from 57.0 on expectations for no change in the survey. The report’s negative tone was further emphasized with the previous month’s reading adjusted lower to 56.7. The GBP/USD fell to 1.6467 from 1.6616. Traders may look to reenter long on the cable at 1.6430, a support level from late April that coincides with a 38.2% retracement from the April move higher.

After the weak manufacturing number the EUR/GBP surged to a 13-month high at 0.8979, triggering stops above the 0.8940 resistance level. The next resistance on the weekly chart is found at 0.9150 off of the February 2010 high.

The USD/JPY has slipped below the 50% retracement level from the pre-intervention low to the April high, falling to 80.70 on the day from 81.03. The pair continues to inch closer to the 80 yen line in the sand. At this price level the Japanese Ministry of Finance may feel the need to step in and intervene in the forex market to help weaken the yen.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.