Month: December 2012

By www.CentralBankNews.info Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news

By www.CentralBankNews.info     The Dominican Republic’s central bank held its key interest rates unchanged, saying it would maintain a cautious stance given the uncertain international scenario and an inflation rate that is in line with the bank’s target.
    The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) kept its key interest rate steady at 5.0 percent and the Lombard rate steady at 7.0 percent. The BCRD has cut its benchmark rate by 175 basis points this year, the most recent 50 basis point cut was in August.
    The inflation rate in the Dominican Republic rose slightly to 3.37 percent in November from 2.87 percent in October and the central bank expects the rate to be around 4.0 percent at the end of the year, within the bank’s target range of 5.0 percent, plus/minus one percentage point.
    “Market expectations are in line with the BCRD’s inflation projection while no significant deviations are looming in the monetary policy horizon, even considering the impact of tax reform on domestic prices,” the central bank said in a statement from Dec. 30.
    Growth prospects for emerging economies show positive signals with no major changes in the prices of primary goods, the bank said. But the euro zone’s economy is expected to remain in recession next year and the inability so far to find a solution to the U.S. fiscal problems could have a significant impact on economic activity and affect the nations that trade with the U.S.

    Economic growth in the Dominican Republic is projected at around 4 percent by the end of 2012, below its potential, and next year it is forecast at 3.0 percent but this could turn out to be higher if private credit continues to expand as it has in the last five months, the bank said.
    Private credit contracted in the first half of the year but has since expanded in response to lower interest rates and if this continues it would lead to growth in private consumption and investment.
    Annual growth in the Gross Domestic Product of the Dominican Republic was 3.8 percent in the second quarter, the same rate as in the first quarter.
   
    www.CentralBankNews.info

By Chris Vermeulen – TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

With 2012 now behind us it’s time to start looking for some new long term investments which have big potential gains in the new year. Copper is one metal that has caught my eye.

The long term monthly chart of the copper ETF JJC shows a potential cup and handle pattern accompanied with bullish volume characteristics. Last year copper traded sideways in a narrowing range. This type of price action tends to bore traders and investors forcing them to look elsewhere for new to trades. The saying is “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”

You can see on the monthly chart that the interest in this commodity diminished. You can tell because of the sideways movement and declining volume. I like to focus on investments which are out of favor but are showing signs of another big trend starting. getting on the train before it leaves the station can make for a fun ride. I do post some of my trading ideas with my charts updating live each day here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

Take a look at the charts, analysis and my best copper stock setup below:

JJC – Copper Total Return ETN Profile

Description: The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).

Copper Miner Stocks ETF COPX – Weekly Chart

This ETF holds a basket of copper mining stocks which is showing signs of a new trend starting. Take a look at the top holdings stocks and fund breakdown to get a feel for the exposure it provides.

COPX Top Ten Holdings

1. Inmet Mining Corporation (IEMMF): 6.62%
2. KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH): 5.24%
3. Xstrata PLC (XTA): 5.04%
4. Grupo Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. (GMEXICO B): 4.89%
5. Jiangxi Copper Company Limited H Shares (00358): 4.83%
6. HudBay Minerals, Inc. (HBM): 4.82%
7. Antofagasta PLC (ANTO): 4.78%
8. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO): 4.75%
9. Lundin Mining Corp (LUNMF): 4.55%
10. Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ): 4.55%

Best Copper Stock Setup – LUNMF

After reviewing the main holdings in this fund I noticed one stock that looks ready to start a new bull market. Lundin Mining. shares look to be building a Stage 1 base and could break out and start to rally any week. Keep in mind 3/4 stocks move with the broad market so we do want the major indexes to find a bottom or at least trade sideways if we want copper stocks to start their run.

Copper Futures, ETF and Stock Trading Conclusion:

Copper has lost its shine over the past 12 months but could start to make headline news in the near future. I like both COPX and LUNMF if we see further strength. If you would like to get more of these trading and investing ideas and alerts be sure to join my newsletter at: http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Disclaimer:
I currently do not own a position in these investment but plan on buying them in the near future. This material should not be considered investment advice. Chris Vermeulen is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this website, article, video, seminar or email from Chris Vermeulen (TheGoldAndOilGuy.com) be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

Source: ForexYard

Renewed efforts by US lawmakers to reach a budget deal before a set of automatic tax increases and spending cuts, known as the “fiscal cliff”, go into effect at the beginning of the year, helped higher-yielding currencies regain some of their recent losses on Friday. This week, in addition to “fiscal cliff” news, traders will want to pay attention to a batch of US data scheduled to be released during the second half of the week. Specifically, Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI, Thursday’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Friday’s all important Non-Farm Payrolls figure are all expected to generate heavy volatility in the marketplace.

Economic News

USD – Significant US News Set to Impact Dollar This Week

After seeing significant gains against its riskier currency rivals during morning trading on Friday, the US dollar turned bearish amid renewed efforts by US lawmakers to reach a budget agreement before the upcoming “fiscal cliff”. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar, which had gained close to 60 pips during the first part of the day, fell more than 50 pips before closing out the week at 0.9133. The GBP/USD advanced more than 80 pips during the European session and eventually finished out the day at 1.6168.

This week, news out of the US is forecasted to have a significant impact on the marketplace. If US lawmakers are unable to reach a budget agreement before automatic tax increases and budget cuts go into effect at the beginning of the year, risk aversion may boost the USD and JPY. Later in the week, traders will not want to forget to pay attention to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figure. Widely considered the most important indicator on the forex calendar, the NFP consistently generates heavy volatility.

EUR – US “Fiscal Cliff” News Set to Impact Euro

After falling against several of its main currency rivals during the first part of the day on Friday, the euro was able to recover some of its losses, amid hopes that US lawmakers can reach a budget deal and avoid the upcoming “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and budget cuts. The EUR/USD, which had dropped close to 90 pips during morning trading, was able to recover most of its losses before closing out the week at 1.3217. The euro fell more than 100 pips against the Japanese yen, eventually trading as low as 113.25, before a slight upward correction to finish out the week at 113.67.

This week, “fiscal cliff” news is likely to have the biggest impact on the euro. With the deadline to reach a budget deal quickly approaching, the euro may see significant losses during the coming days if US lawmakers fail to resolve their issues and investors shift their funds to safe-haven assets. Later in the week, traders will want to pay attention to key US employment data, with better than expected news likely to boost higher-yielding assets, including the euro.

Gold – Hopes for “Fiscal Cliff” Deal Lead to Minor Gold Losses

The price of gold took moderate losses during the European session on Friday, as hopes that US lawmakers can reach a budget deal and avoid the upcoming “fiscal cliff”, led to some risk taking in the marketplace. The precious metal fell by more than $7 an ounce over the course of the day before closing out the week at $1655.24.

This week, with all eyes on how the budget crisis in the US is going to turn out, traders can anticipate significant volatility for gold. If the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and budget cuts is avoided, risk taking among investors could result in gold taking additional losses in the coming days.

Crude Oil – Oil Prices Fall after US Inventories Report Released

The price of oil fell by close to $1 a barrel during afternoon trading on Friday, after a higher than expected US Crude Oil Inventories figure led to concerns that American demand is weakening. Crude ended up finishing out the week at $90.70, down some $0.80 for the day.

This week, news out of the US, specifically any developments in “fiscal cliff” negotiations and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, are likely to impact oil prices. Should US lawmakers agree on a budget and avoid the “fiscal cliff”, or if the NFP report comes in better than expected, risk taking among investors is likely to boost oil prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are beginning to narrow, indicating that a price shift could occur in the coming days. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross, signaling that the price shift could be downward. This may be a good time to open short positions.

GBP/USD

Most long-term technical indicators show this pair range trading, meaning that a definitive trend is difficult to predict at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

A bearish cross on the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that this pair could see downward movement in the coming days. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index on the same chart has crossed over into overbought territory. This may be a good time for traders to open short positions.

USD/CHF

The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has dropped into oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bullish cross. Opening long positions may be the smart choice for this pair.

The Wild Card

USD/ZAR

The Slow Stochastic on the daily chart is close to forming a bullish cross, meaning that this pair could see upward movement in the near future. Additionally, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is currently in oversold territory. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible upward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Hey Everyone,

Below are some market trends for today.

Good luck!

-Dan

Gold- May see downward movement today
Support- 1654.99
Resistance- 1675.97

Silver- May see downward movement today
Support- 29.82
Resistance- 30.42

Crude Oil- May see downward movement today
Support- 89.64
Resistance-91.43

Dax 30- May see upward movement today
Support- 7568.27
Resistance- 7700.00

EUR/USD May see upward movement today
Support- 1.3056
Resistance- 1.3280

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The euro took moderate losses against the US dollar in overnight trading, as concerns regarding the ability of US lawmakers to reach a budget deal before the “fiscal cliff” of tax increases and budget cuts, led to risk aversion in the marketplace. The EUR/USD, currently trading at 1.3185, fell close to 50 pips during the Asian session.

Gold was able to benefit from the risk aversion in the marketplace, and gained close to $12 an ounce during the Asian session. The precious metal is currently trading at $1668.

Main News for Today

Today is the last day US congressional leaders have to reach a deal before automatic tax increases and spending cuts go into effect, which threaten to send the US back into recession. If an agreement is not reached in time, risk aversion may boost safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen.

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 31 December 2012, 06:30 EST

WHOLESALE gold bullion prices touched their highest level since Christmas at $1669 an ounce during Monday morning’s London session, before easing slightly towards lunchtime to record a 5.7% gain for 2012 at the final gold fix of the year.

Silver failed to hold gains from Asian trading, falling back towards $30 an ounce.

Major European stock markets ticked lower this morning following news that no deal has been done in Washington to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. An exception was France’s CAC 40 Index, which rose following news of a setback to the French government’s plans to raise taxes on the wealthy.

Oil prices edged lower meantime, falling for the third day in a row, amid concerns the US economy is about to see automatic tax rises and cuts in government spending which could threaten a new recession.

“[The Republicans] say that their biggest priority is making sure that we deal with the deficit in a serious way,” President Obama told Sunday’s edition of NBC’s Meet the Press.

“But the way they’re behaving is that their only priority is making sure that tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans are protected.”

“Americans elected President Obama to lead, not cast blame,” countered John Boehner, Republican speaker of the House of Representatives.

“The president’s comments are ironic, as a recurring theme of our negotiations was his unwillingness to agree to anything that would require him to stand up to his own party.”

If the two sides fail to agree a deal by tomorrow on how to tackle the budget deficit, automatic tax rises and spending cuts worth around $600 billion will come into effect.

“Some investors are looking through this in the hope that politicians can find a middle ground that will allow the increasing momentum in the economy not to be impeded,” says Tim Schroeders, who helps manage $1 billion at Pengana Capital in Melbourne.

“It’s disappointing that politics has got in the way to such an extent, with investors becoming increasingly nervous that this will drag on into the new year.”

“Gold and silver will…find near-term support amid ebbing haven demand for the US Dollar,” says a note from analysts at Swiss refiner MKS.

“But one should be cautious when an agreement is reached,” they add, noting that this could be followed by “a sharp downtick”.

Over in Europe, the French government will press ahead with plans to introduce a 75% tax rate for the wealthy, the country’s finance minister has said, despite France’s constitutional council ruling against the measures on Saturday.

“We are in a period of crisis…it is logical that the wealthiest should make a contribution at this time,” Pierre Moscovici told the Financial Times, adding that the council’s ruling was technical rather than fundamental.

Manufacturing growth in China meantime accelerated in December, according to HSBC’s purchasing manager’s index, which hit its highest level since April 2011 this month (a figure above 50 indicates increased sector activity during the month).

The final London gold fix of 2012 on Monday morning was $1664 an ounce – an annual gain of 5.7%.

Gold in Euros traded at €1261.56 an ounce at the time of the fix – up 3.7% on the year – while gold in Sterling ended the year up 0.9% at £1029.32 an ounce.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

EURUSD continues its sideways movement in a range between 1.3157 and 1.3308. Key support remains at the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.2661, and another rise towards 1.3500 could be expected after consolidation. However, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the uptrend has completed at 1.3308 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 1.2700-1.2800 area.

Daily Forex Analysis

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Dear Reader,

Welcome to the last edition of Money Morning for 2012.

And what a year it’s been! We’ve seen a lot…thought a lot…and written a lot.

Too much, according to one reader in our mailbag:

‘Too much bland talk before any subject matter, you lose your client before you start. People need facts, not words. Repeating the same information does not impress a potential client. Takes too long to even get to the start of subject. I just switch off!’

This note made us chuckle.

So in that spirit we thought it would be fun to end the year with a look back at the most talked-about articles from the year that’s soon-to-be-was.

See what we got right. What we got wrong. The rockers. The shockers. You be the judge!

We’ll be back with you as usual on Tuesday.

Until then, have a great celebration tonight and Happy New Year from us!

Kris and the team
Money Morning Australia

The End of the Debt Supercycle

In 1971, President Nixon abandoned the US dollar’s link to gold.

Ever since then the world has operated without any semblance of a monetary anchor.

The result? A coming implosion…

Grice: The Man with One Hand

It was something of a coup to have this banking insider agree to speak at our ‘After America’ conference earlier this year.

Here we recount a rare interview with the man himself, Dylan Grice…

After America: Fear, Hope, Risk and Opportunity

What to be concerned about…what to look forward to…where fortunes will be made…and where wealth will be lost forever…

What Isaac Newton Knew About House Prices

The boffins at the International Monetary Fund have finally found out what Sir Isaac Newton knew 325 years ago.

That is, every action creates an opposite and equal reaction.

It’s Newton’s Third Law. What does this have to do with Aussie houses prices?

Find out…

Three Reasons Why This Obscure Metal Could Take Off

Dr. Alex Cowie’s hot tip for 2012…was it a shocker or rocker?

Decide for yourself…

No Mr. President, They DID Build That!

The White House is waging a new war against freedom, free enterprise, and entrepreneurialism.

For all the proof you need watch this short video here and then read our rant…

The Resource Boom is Dead…but the Next Resource Boom Has Just Begun

The bears say new supply, a Chinese hard landing and a deflationary economy will knock commodity prices over and hold them down…

The bulls say central bank money-printing and the rising middle classes in Asia and Africa will put a rocket under demand for the next decade or more…

Which is it?

We Buy Gold Because We Don’t Trust Them Not to Meddle

A gentle reminder of why we hold gold…and recommend you do too.

Don’t Teach Your Man to Fish

Why the Monks from St Dogmael’s Abbey 1,000 years ago understood wealth better than your financial advisor today.

And what they can teach you about paying for your retirement…

Goldman Sachs Declares War on the Aussie Dollar

Is it possible to have up to $100 million and not have a penny to spend?

Actually, YES.

We’ll show you how.

Why I’m Bullish on These Beaten-Down Retail Stocks

Sales are down. Shoppers are buying more and more stuff online. Some retailers are even going bust – the Darrell Lea chocolate stores are a recent example.

Must be time to pack your bags and sell out, right?

NO…!

The Greatest Australian You’ve Never Heard Of

He built one of Australia’s greatest ever small-cap mining fortunes and changed the course of history…but today practically nobody knows his name.

Here we resurrect this amazing tale – and remind us all of the potential profits than come from calculated punts and a healthy dose of vision.

Let us introduce the most influential Aussie who ever lived…

Three rockers for 2013

They are unproven…but have huge potential to do something big and make their early backers a lot of money.

We believe these three stocks should be top of your speculative investment list for 2013…

By Chris Vermeulen – TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Coffee prices have fallen more than 50% since 2010 which can be seen through the coffee exchange traded fund symbol: JO. This investment seeks to replicate the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in coffee futures contracts as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.

Weekly, Hourly and Seasonal chart of JO Coffee Exchange Traded Fund

The top weekly chart shows my price targets for 2013 while the lower hourly chart shows strong on balance volume meaning big money is slowly building a long position in coffee. The small white chart is the seasonal chart of coffee futures showing prices historically rise from Jan  – March, then a correction followed by another rally in to May.

Coffee prices are still in a down trend but it looks as though the end is near and if played properly it could provide up to 100% return on your capital in 2013.

Coffee Futures Monthly Long Term Chart

This chart gives you a bird’s eye view on where coffee prices are trading in the big picture scheme of things.

JO Coffee ETF VS. SBUX Starbucks Share Price:

Lower coffee bean prices has helped lift share prices of coffee companies like Starbucks: SBUX, Coffee Holdings Co.: JVA, Coffee Roasters Inc.: GMCR, and PEET’s Coffee: PEET. But cheap coffee may not be around that much longer and the lower earnings for coffee brewers may be closer than most may think.

Follow my Live Trading Charts Here Free: https://stockcharts.com/public/1992897

2013 Caffeine Conclusion:

In short, I have been watching coffee prices for a bottoming pattern for months and I now feel it is getting really close to a bottom and it could be a great trade and investment in the new year. As for companies like Starbucks it will likely not have much of an affect on the bottom line until the second half of the year though it is something to keep an eye on during earning seasons.

If you want my trading and investing ideas each week along with trade alerts for ideas like this then join my newsletter today: http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen