Global equities jumped 4 pct. last week and had one of its best weeks this year. For the rest of 2012 and going into 2013 Senior Strategist Ib Fredslund Madsen is positiv on equities.
Hear why in this weeks edition of ‘The Week Ahead’.
This week investors will focus on the debt-situation in Greece and political statements concerning the fiscal cliff issue in the US.
Video by en.jyskebank.tv
Positive consumer spending continues to boost the demand for risk to commence this week’s currency exchanges. The Canadian dollar is looked forward to regain its momentum over the safety bet US dollar, even as finance ministers in the Euro region debate on an aid payment to Athens and forge a clear blueprint to keep the indebted country solvent.
Following a drop to the 0.9913 price low, USDCAD price action encountered a technical correction as the price index was registered as oversold. The Loonie is now plotting a strengthening price movement where the lower psychological handle is deemed as the primary target. Gains in risk demand are likely to aid the bearish action, what with Holiday sales keeping the markets fresh.
With no economic data to follow today, except for hope that an agreement would be arrived at in Brussels to stimulate global risk, market focus in North America would be on how US retailers extend their deals into Cyber Monday to try to sustain a 13 percent gain in Thanksgiving weekend sales. In a report by ComScore yesterday, Black Friday retail sales online this year topped $1 Billion for the first time ever as more consumers used the Internet do their early holiday shopping. ShopperTrak, which counts foot traffic in physical retail stores, estimated Black Friday sales at $11.2 Billion. Though down by 1.8 percent from the same day last year, this was likely a result of increased e-commerce activity as online shoppers become lured by low prices, convenience, faster shipping and wide selections.
Retailers have capitalized on the Thanksgiving weekend by extending Black Friday and Cyber Monday into a week’s worth of deals, as stores opened earlier and more deals were offered online. In fact, Thanksgiving Day, which was traditionally reserved for family gatherings, saw the number of shoppers rise to more than 35 Million from 29 Million last year, according to the National Retail Federation. Also, spending in stores and online rose to $59.1 Billion in the four days starting November 22, says the NRF in a statement yesterday. A year ago, sales advanced 16 percent over the holiday weekend.
As investors anticipate more economic activity today, Cyber Monday, risk demand is perceived for some more gains. The Loonie is likely to benefit, and the USDCAD is suggested to be sold, though technical price corrections are still probable. Be wary also of developments in the European Union as a clear agreement or a lack of it would surely affect the markets today.
For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions.
London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Monday 26 November 2012, 07:00 EST
U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold fell back below $1750 an ounce, a few Dollars below where they closed last week following Friday’s rally, while stocks and commodities also edged lower and US Treasuries gained ahead of further discussion on Greece at today’s meeting of Euro finance ministers.
Silver meantime dipped briefly below $34 an ounce this morning, though it remained within 1% of Friday’s one-month high.
On Friday, spot gold rallied in US trading to close above $1750 an ounce for the first time in over a month. One analyst this morning called Friday’s move a “technical breakout” enabled by “illiquid trading conditions” a day after Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US.
“We’d like to see prices above $1760 to confirm the movem,” adds a note from ANZ.
That would pave the way for a test of $1790-$1800…[but] We think $1800 will prove to be a step too far in the current market, and remain confident in year-end forecast of $1780.”
Over in India, where a central bank official talked today of the benefits of investing in “dematerialized gold”, bullion importers today opted not to buy new stock for the wedding season, with the Rupee weakening against the Dollar.
Eurozone finance ministers meet today to discuss Greece, following last Tuesday’s meeting that ended without agreement to pay Athens its latest tranche of bailout funding.
Policymakers are yet to agree on how Greece should reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio, with the aim of bringing it down to 120% over the next decade. Some Euro members have suggested reducing the interest rates Greece pays on its loans, while Germany is reported to favor allowing Greece to buy back some of its debt at below face value.
In a closed-door meeting last week German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble reportedly told his counterparts from France, Italy and Spain, as well as International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, that Germany might eventually write off some of its loans to Greece. At the Eurozone finance ministers meeting the next day however Schaeuble ruled this out.
“It turns out that Schaeuble may have exceeded his mandate from the Chancellery, if he had one,” one EU official told Reuters.
Elsewhere in Europe, two thirds of the vote went to pro-independence parties in yesterday’s regional elections in Catalonia, with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) party, one of several parties that have called for a referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain, more than doubling its number of seats in the regional assembly in elections held Sunday.
The Convergencia i Unio party of Catalan president Artur Mas won 50 of the 135 seats, down from 62, Bloomberg reports, meaning Mas does not have a majority in the assembly.
“With a majority, Mas could have negotiated [with the national government in Madrid] for all kinds of goodies to postpone the referendum but clearly that’s not an option anymore,” says Ken Dubin, political scientist at Carlos III University in Madrid.
Despite being Spain’s richest region, Catalonia requested a €5 billion bailout from the national government back in August. Mas has called for independent tax collection and has said net transfers from Catalonia to other regions are to blame for its financial difficulties.
Over in India meantime, rules restricting banks from buying gold back from customers are “a work in progress”, the Reserve Bank of India’s deputy governor Subir Gokarn told a conference Monday.
Gokarn also elaborated on last week’s announcement that the authorities are looking at creating investment products linked to gold to satisfy demand in a country that is traditionally the world’s biggest god buying nation, and which imports the vast majority of its bullion.
“Since current account deficit is large and capital flows are becoming more uncertain,” Gokarn said, “the role of innovation is to find ways to not deny the ability or choice of investing in gold… can we find ways to give [people] gold like products, what one may call dematerialized gold, with gold like qualities but are not entirely dependent on physical possession.”
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+
(c) BullionVault 2012
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Chris Vermeulen, GoldAndOilGuy.com
The stock market is at a very critical pivot point which I feel will generate opportunities in December and for the first quarter of 2013.
Trading with the trend is not always an easy task. It is human nature to predict and jump to conclusions and usually it’s better to trade with the trend no matter what your emotions are telling you. The current trend is down and I stick with that until we are proven wrong.
If you carefully analyze the charts below you will understand where we are trading in the market and what the risks are at this point. The question is are in the middle of a trend reversal back up, or is this just a bounce within a down trend? Either way, any pullback this week should be aggressively managed to lock in gains and tighten stops because it could go either way and you do not want to be on the wrong side of the table.
The chart below shows the US dollar index 4 hour chart. It looks as though we should start to see a bounce this week and that should put pressure on stocks and commodities.
The SP500 (SPY etf) below that shows my analysis and key price levels. I took a short position on the SPY Friday afternoon as I feel a pullback is imminent. That being said, all I need is one big down day and I will be pulling money off the table to lock in gains and tighten my stop.
If a detailed educational lesson on stock market cycles read my mini course here: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/downloads/COAAROTB.pdf
My trading charts make reading the market simple, quick and precise so if you want this type of analysis and trade ideas delivered to your inbox every day including my Pre-Market video analysis then join my newsletter here: GoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen
By JW Jones – TradersVideoPlaybook.com
The amount of negative news that we have seen recently has been mind-blowing. Europe is going into recession, Greece and several other countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, the Middle East is a powder-keg, and the U.S. is facing a fiscal cliff. Shockingly for most retail traders, the past week has produced a very strong return for U.S. equity indexes as well as risk assets in general.
Retail investors often times consistently lose money because they focus on the financial media and all of the negative news that is out there. Trust me, as a longer term trader and investor, there is never an absence of negative news or potentially poor economic possibilities. This is not to say that markets cannot decline, investors just need to understand that markets are cyclical in nature and do not ever move in a straight line.
Based on what I was reading from most of the financial blogosphere recently, you would think that the entire world was about to end. A few blogs were calling for an all out collapse late last week or a possible crash this past Monday, November 19th. As is typically the case, the market prognosticators were wrong with the calls for a crash or an absolute collapse in financial markets.
Unlike those blogs, members of my service at TradersVideoPlaybook.com were getting information indicating that we were expecting higher prices. At our service, we lay out regular videos covering a variety of underlying assets from the S&P 500 Index and oil futures, to gold and treasury futures. The focus is purely on analysis of various underlying assets across multiple time frames. We cover intraday time frames as well as daily and weekly swing time frames throughout the week with videos and written updates.
To put into perspective what we were seeing in the marketplace on Monday November 19th, the following chart was sent out to our members during intraday trading that day.
As can be seen above, the target we were expecting was at the top of the recent channel. As shown directly on the chart above was my comments that if the 1,410 level on the S&P 500 Index could be taken out to the upside, the bulls would have an opportunity to move prices higher into the end of the year. The daily chart of the S&P 500 Index after the close on Friday November 23.
As can be seen above, the S&P 500 Index moved right into the expected target price range and closed literally at the very top end of the range shown above. If prices move considerably higher, the bulls will have broken the descending channel and higher prices will likely await.
Next week’s price action is going to have a dramatic impact on the price direction of the broader market indexes. One important aspect that I would point out to readers is that the large move higher shown above came on exceptionally light volume due to the holiday week. In light of that, a strong reversal cannot be ruled out. Caution is warranted regardless of a trader or investor’s directional bias.
One of the most important charts to monitor over the past few weeks has been the U.S. Dollar Index futures. Typically a stronger Dollar has been bearish for equities and risk assets in general. However, on Friday we saw a very strong selloff in the U.S. Dollar Index futures as shown below.
As can be seen above, the U.S. Dollar Index futures closed on Friday right at a key support level having given back much of the recent gains. If the Dollar continues to move lower it should put a floor under stock indexes and push risk assets higher overall.
Two major moves higher occurred in light of this weakening Dollar on Friday in both gold and silver futures. The precious metals had a very strong move higher after the U.S. Presidential election and have been consolidating now for a few weeks. Prices in both gold and silver had strong moves higher on Friday which were accompanied by very strong volume. The daily chart of gold futures is shown below.
Gold futures had a huge move higher today supported by strong volume. Based on today’s action, I believe that we will see the $1,800 / ounce resistance level tested in the near term. Seasonally speaking, this time of the year is bullish for gold and silver and should the strong seasonality correspond with a weak U.S. Dollar much higher prices likely await in the precious metals sector.
Members of TradersVideoPlaybook were made aware that I was expecting very strong action in both gold and silver when they broke higher after nearly testing their 200 period moving averages. At the time, I told members that as long as the breakout from the consolidation zone from the July – August time frame held as support, higher prices were likely and that is just what we have seen.
Overall, I believe that the quarters ahead should be strong for both gold and silver. Time will tell whether oil futures and the broader equity markets will also move higher. I continue to believe that monitoring the Dollar Index futures closely is an important part of assessing the directional bias to expect in the months ahead.
We have a lot of negative news in the headlines, but Mr. Market has fooled most investors and traders alike the past week. If you were one of those investors that were fooled, consider taking advantage of our weekend special by clicking the link below: Take care and Happy Trading!
JW Jones
www.TradersVideoPlaybook.com
This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the TradersVideoPlaybook.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Bank of England meeting minutes indicated that policy makers are unlikely to cut interest rates after they voted 8-1 to halt the asset purchases program. The UK gilts declined for the first time in five weeks after the report was released. The UK currency also depreciated from the second week against the euro as optimism of an agreement between euro zone finance ministers boosted the demand for the euro. The pound advanced against the greenback for the first time in a month as investors increase their bets the US lawmakers will avert the fiscal cliff facing the US economy.
According to Jason Simpson, a rates strategist in London at Banco Santander SA, the Bank of England meeting minutes were bearish for the gilts. The minutes suggested that the bar for additional QE has been raised higher. Simpson also noted that the lawmakers expressly ruled out the possibility of interest rate cut in the near term. This is an indication that the BOE is changing its view on the economy. Mervyn King, the BOE Governor and his two deputies have expressed their concerns about the effectiveness of additional quantitative easing measures.
The BOE meeting minutes which were released on November 21 indicated that David Miles, one of the policy makers voted for a 25 billion-pound increment on the bond-buying program unlike the majority who said there was no need for additional stimulus. The committee was however unanimous in voting to keep benchmark interest rates at its lowest of 0.5 percent, indicating that it is unlikely to reduce it further in the foreseeable future.
The Sterling pound dropped by 0.8 percent against the euro to 80.84 pence per euro from November 16 to the close of the week on Friday 23. The currency advanced against the dollar last week, to make a remarkable weekly gain of 0.9 percent to close the week at $1.6028.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox
Source: ForexYard
Hey Everyone,
Below are some market trends for today.
Good luck!
-Dan
Gold- May see downward movement today
Support- 1733.77
Resistance- 1767.18
Silver- May see downward movement today
Support- 33.40
Resistance- 34.98
Crude Oil- May see upward movement today
Support- 89.47
Resistance- 86.45
Dax 30- May see downward movement today
Support- 7183.63
Resistance- 7419.05
EUR/USD May see upward movement today
Support- 1.2857
Resistance- 1.3069
Read more forex news on our forex blog
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The New Zealand and Australian dollars advanced to their strongest levels in two weeks as speculation Euro zone finance ministers will reach an agreement increased the demand for commodity related currencies. The kiwi and Aussie were supported by the strong performance of Asian shares after US shares registered their biggest advance in five months as holiday shopping season started to grip the market. The Australian dollar advanced to 0.1 percent from a two-week high against the kiwi as the investors and market analysts speculated that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its borrowing costs when they meet next month.
According to Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the euro zone finance ministers will be positive for the kiwi and Aussie if they give positive news. He projected that the currencies are already reaping from the increased optimism and the news of an agreement will boost their demand for the short-term. The Australian benchmark yields declined by 0.03 percentage point, to 3.27 percent from its close on November 23 of 3.30 percent, this was the highest level since October 26. The New Zealand two-year swap rate fell by two basis points to 2.64 percent.
The south pacific currencies advanced as MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares gained by 0.5 percent. The S&P 500 Index of US stocks rose by 3.6 percent last week, registering its biggest weekly advance since the week ending June 8. The Aussie was trading at $1.0458 at the close of trading in Sydney where it traded at 86.09 yen per Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar exchanged at 82.39 US Cents and 67.83 yen.
The strong performance of south pacific currencies have come as Finance official meet in Brussels today after an all-night meeting and a European Union summit failed to reach an agreement on the necessary measures to be taken to secure Greece bailout.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox
Source: ForexYard
The euro took moderate losses during overnight trading, following an election in Catalonia, Spain’s wealthiest region, in which pro-separatist political parties scored some victories. The news led to speculations that Spain will continue to delay requesting a euro-zone bailout. The EUR/USD fell close to 25 pips during the Asian session, while the EUR/JPY dropped more than 70 pips.
The price of crude oil fell around $0.30 during the first half of the night, eventually trading as low as $87.85, before staging an upward recovery and bouncing back to its current level of $88.15.
After shooting up close to $20 an ounce on Friday, gold was able to largely hold onto its recent gains during the Asian session as hopes that a deal to unlock a new round of Greek bailout funds will soon be reached. The precious metal is currently trading at the $1750 level.
Main News for Today
Eurogroup Meetings- All Day
• The Eurogroup consists of finance ministers from throughout the euro-zone
• The main topic of discussion for today is how to provide Greece with a new round of bailout funds
• If a deal is reached to provide Greece with the funds, the euro could see gains throughout the day
Read more forex news on our forex blog
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The 17-nation currency dropped against its peers after pro-independent parties in Catalonia won a regional vote in Spain. The vote has strengthened calls for secession in defiance of Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish Prime Minister. The euro dropped against its most traded counterparts as the market speculated that Spain will derail in asking for bailout as political uncertainty mounts. The currency has dropped as Finance Ministers prepare to meet to discuss the Greek issue where they are expected to come up with a solution. The Japanese yen has surged from a seven-month low as technical indicators showed that the currency might have been oversold. The strengthening was limited by minutes of the last Bank of Japan meeting which showed that members were calling for more easing.
According to Masafumi Yamamoto, the Chief Foreign-Exchange Strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Plc, Spain is most likely to continue delaying for the financial assistance. He noted that the election results were not positive for the euro as the market will most likely shift its focus on Spain. The poor economic fundamentals in Europe will also be determined by Spain after the Finance Ministers meeting today. Artur Mas, the Catalan President, called an early election to establish a debate on independence, and he has won 50 seats of the 135 in the regional assembly. Separatist party, Catalan Republican Left, double its seats to 21 from ten it held previously.
The euro also dropped as Finance Ministers in the region returns to Brussels to discuss issue bailout woes. The meeting has been held twice with no results as creditors differ on the way to handle the Greek crisis. According to French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, the Finance chiefs are committed to achieving an accord as failing to do so would be irresponsible considering all the efforts that have been put to it from all sides.
The 17-nation currency dropped by 0.1 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.2961 from its mid-day trading in Tokyo on Friday Nov 23, after it had advanced by 1.8 percent over the week. The currency advanced to its strongest level against the euro since April 27 of 107.14 yen, before dropping to 106.69 which is 0.2 percent from its November 23 close in New York.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox
