Month: November 2012

How Elliott wave analysis helps you as a forex trader with built-in, risk-defining safeguards
November 28, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Elliott wave analysis is not a crystal ball. (No market-forecasting method is.)

But here’s what is remarkable: Even when your Elliott wave forecast doesn’t pan out, you have built-in safeguards to alert you — and help you manage risk. Here’s a real-life example.

Going into the November 14 low, USD/JPY charts had been showing an impulsive downward Elliott wave pattern. Impulses are 5-wave moves, but on November 13-14, the pattern looked incomplete: the fifth wave down seemed to be missing.

Here’s a chart our Currency Specialty Service subscribers saw early on November 13:

So, our analysis on November 13 suggested that USD/JPY would fall further. But USD/JPY just would not fall; instead, it went sideways.

That suggested to our Currency Specialty Service team that the wave (4) you see in the chart above was extending. Perhaps it was developing as another Elliott wave pattern — maybe a contracting triangle? This chart and analysis described to subscribers that scenario:

“A bearish fourth-wave triangle is another idea that’s in a position to yield new lows in wave (5). Resistance rests at 79.655/765.”

Note that line: “Resistance rests at 79.655/765” — it represents the very risk-defining safeguards I mentioned earlier.

How? Well, there are things that Elliott wave patterns just are not allowed to do. In a contracting triangle (an A-B-C-D-E formation), prices must stay within converging trendlines — and they cannot overlap the start of wave A, the origin of the pattern. Resistance at 79.655/765 was exactly that: the price point where the contracting triangle interpretation would be invalidated.

Practical application: If you were bearish on USD/JPY on November 14, you could have used the price area of 79.655/765 to manage your position risk.

As you probably know, USD/JPY did not go sideways for long. Nor did it go down. Soon after, it went higher and breached that key resistance level:

When one Elliott wave pattern ends, another one begins. As soon as that key resistance in USD/JPY was breached, a new road map for the Japanese yen became clear.

Download Your Free 14-page eBook: “Trading Forex: How the Elliott Wave Principle Can Boost Your Forex Success”Here’s some of what you’ll learn: Which Elliott waves to trade Which Elliott waves set up your forex trade When your analysis is wrong Guidelines for projecting price targets How to evaluate an Elliott wave structure How to use the bigger picture to give you perspective on the market’s next major move Jim also takes you through two real-world trading examples to reinforce what you’ve learned and apply it to your own trading. All you need is a free Club EWI profile to download this FREE 14-page eBook now >>

By Central Bank News
    Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark Selic interest rate steady at a record low 7.25 percent, as widely expected, saying stable monetary conditions for a “sufficiently long period of time” would be the right strategy to ensure that inflation meets the bank’s target.
    Banco Central do Brazil, which has cut its rate 10 times in a row and seven times in 2012 to stimulate the economy, said the policy decision by its committee was unanimous and no bias was indicated. It was the final meeting of the Copom committee this year.
    Inflation rose to 5.45 percent in October – the fourth monthly increase in a row – from 5.28 percent in September. The bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent, plus/minus 2 percentage points. In the month to mid-November, inflation rose to 5.64 percent
    “Considering the balance of risks to inflation, recovery in domestic activity and the complexity involved in the international environment, the Committee believes that the stability of monetary conditions for a sufficiently long period of time is the most appropriate strategy to ensure the convergence of inflation to the goal, albeit not linear,” the bank said in statement.
    Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product rose by only 0.50 percent in the second quarter from the same quarter last year, down from an annual rate of 0.8 percent in the first and 1.4 percent in the fourth.
    The Selic rate has been cut by 375 basis points this year. 
      Financial markets had expected Brazil’s central bank to end the year by keeping rates steady and last week central bank president Alexandre Tombini said economic activity was starting to accelerate and the economy was growing at a pace of 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter.
     He expects Brazil’s economy to expand by only 1.6 percent in 2012 but then accelerate to around 4.0 percent in 2013.
    Earlier this month Tombini had also said that keeping the key interest rate unchanged for a prolonged time was the best strategy to ensure inflation will slow to its target next year and there was no need to change policy following the October rate cut.

    www.CentralBankNews.info

By The Sizemore Letter

The last few weeks have seen a rally in…well…for lack of better word, “crap.”

Before Tuesday’s correction, Research in Motion (Nasdaq: $RIMM) had risen 37% since just the beginning of this month and had nearly doubled from the low hit over the summer.

Facebook (Nasdaq: $FB), the company that may be remembered as the most disappointing IPO in decades, is up more than 36% in just the past two weeks.

Even Dell (Nasdaq: $DELL), the perpetually cheap PC maker that has struggled to stay relevant in the age of cheap Chinese competition and from upstart tablets and smartphones, has shown signs of life. The stock is up 13% in just the past week and a half.

What’s going on here?   Do investors really see value in these tech disappointments, or is this just the mother of all short-covering rallies?

It’s a little of both.  Let’s take a look at each company separately.

Research in Motion has been a real frustration to me as a former bull.  This was the company that invented the smartphone and as recently as a year ago could have remained the dominant player in the corporate market had they played their cards right.

Alas, they didn’t play their cards right.  In fact, they didn’t really play their cards at all.  For the life of me, I can’t figure out what the company has been doing for the past two years.  BB10—the new operating system that is supposed to compete with Apple’s (Nasdaq: $AAPL) iPhone and Google’s (Nasdaq: $GOOG) Android phones—is scheduled to be released in February of next year.  That’s almost a year later than originally planned, assuming they meet the deadline.  And given the company’s recent history, that is not a certainty.

You almost have to work to screw things up as badly as RIMM did.   Even after the company started to fall behind its rivals, it had assets of real value.  Its BBM messenger is still the best texting and instant messaging program on the market, and it could have been monetized as a standalone app for sale in the Apple and Google app stores.  But it wasn’t, and every day that passes it becomes less relevant as its pool of current users dwindles.

I still see value in RIMM’s Mobile Fusion platform, which allows corporate IT departments to manage iPhones and Androids on the equivalent of a BlackBerry Enterprise Server.  But there is a very significant risk that the company will fail before they have time to fully develop this.

RIMM still looks cheap—on paper.  It has roughly $2 billion in cash and an estimated billion or so in patents.  Backing these out, the value of RIMM as a going concern is currently only about $2-3 billion.  A good activist investor could buy RIMM, chop it into pieces, and sell off its parts at a profit.  But before that happens, management will probably destroy a lot more value first.

It’s simply too late for BB10 to save RIMM.  A year ago, I think it would have had a chance.  But at this point, the company has too much baggage, and they are fighting for turf among the business crowd with a resurgent Microsoft (Nasdaq: $MSFT). (See “Microsoft Will Crush Google“)

Don’t get drawn into RIMM.  It’s a sucker’s rally.

But what about Facebook?

My wife and I have a rule of thumb for technology products.  Once our respective mothers use it, it’s over.  This is not to say that the company is going out of business, but its high-growth phase is clearly over.  When our mothers are using it, there is no one left to join.

Well, both of our mothers are now avid Facebook users.

You should take my “Mother Indicator” with a grain of salt, of course.  But given that Facebook trades for 40 times next year’s expected earnings, my concerns about growth start looking valid.  Facebook’s profits would have to grow at torrid pace in the years ahead for that valuation to be anything short of ludicrous.

Zuckerberg & Co. are anything if not creative (“ruthless” is another word that comes to mind), and I have no doubt that Facebook will find new ways to monetize its assets.  But the company depends mostly on paid advertising, which is not a proven model yet in the world of social media.  And rival Twitter seems to be getting more buzz these days.

Facebook is a $50-billion company with a questionable business model trading at a nosebleed valuation.  If you buy it, you are betting big on Zuckerberg’s ability to innovate.  I’m not willing to make that bet at current prices.

Finally, let’s look at Dell.  Dell is a good company in a terrible industry.  They make good computers and laptops, but both are commoditized products.  There simply isn’t much premium to be charged for selling a “good” PC these days.  All of the profit goes to Microsoft, the maker of the operating system, and Intel (Nasdaq: $INTC), the maker of the processor.

That said, Dell is ridiculously cheap, even for a seller of a commoditized product.  It sells for just 6 times expected 2013 earnings and for just 0.29 times sales, and at $9.77 per share its price is barely above the crisis lows it hit during the 2008-2009  meltdown.

Dell also has no net debt, a respectable return on equity of 27%, and a dividend of 3.4%.

There is a lot of bearishness towards Dell for the same reason that there is a lot of bearishness towards Microsoft and Intel.  Computers are no longer a growth industry. While I consider them far from “dead,” tablets and smartphones are creeping deeper and deeper into territory once dominated by PCs.   Investors simply have no interest in owning shares of yesterday’s tech darling.

And herein lies a potential opportunity.  Dell is interesting contrarian value play.  If you believe, as I do, that there is plenty of room for PCs, tablets, and laptops on the desks and in the lives of most consumers, then Dell should have a viable future.  And given that no one—as in not a single investor I have met in years—has any interest in owning Dell right now, your downside should be tolerably low.

If sentiment improves even modestly towards PCs, Dell could be an easy double over the next 12-24 months.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long MSFT and INTC.  This article first appeared on InvestorPlace.

The post Beware the Crap Rally appeared first on Sizemore Insights.

Related posts:

• Microsoft Will Crush Google
• In a War of Attrition, Microsoft Will Beat Apple
• Microsoft, Apple and Big Tech for the Remainder of 2012

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday 28 November 2012, 08:00 EST

THE DOLLAR gold price fell to a one-week low below $1735 per ounce Wednesday, as stocks and commodities also edged lower while the Dollar and US Treasuries gained despite ongoing uncertainty over how the US will address its deficit problems.

Silver fell to $33.73 an ounce, also a one-week low.

“We are bullish silver, looking for a retracement back to the $35.35 [an ounce] high from early October,” says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Bullion held to back shares in the world’s largest gold exchange traded fund SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose to a new all-time high yesterday at 1345.8 tonnes.

On the currency markets the US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar’s strength against a basket of other currencies, extended gains this morning despite ongoing uncertainty over the so-called fiscal cliff of tax rises and spending cuts due to kick in at the end of the year.

“I haven’t seen any suggestions on what [the Democrats are] going to do on spending,” said Republican senator Orrin Hatch Tuesday.

“There’s a certain cockiness that I’ve seen that is really astounding to me since we’re basically in the same position we were before.”

“I think they feel somewhat emboldened by the election,” added Republican Congressman Tom Price.

“How could you not when your president is re-elected after running four straight years of trillion Dollar-plus deficits?”

Senate majority leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said yesterday he hopes the Republicans can agree to proposed measures to raise additional tax revenue as a way of reducing the federal deficit.

“And as the president’s said on a number of occasions, we’ll be happy to deal with entitlements,” Reid added, though he did not elaborate on where spending cuts might be made.

“If the talks drag on,” says today’s commodities note from Commerzbank, “this could result in significant increases in the gold price.”

The US Treasury meantime did not brand China a currency manipulator Tuesday, contrary to press reports predicting that it would. The Treasury Department did however say the Renminbi “remains significantly undervalued”.

Over in Europe, the European Court of Justice, Europe’s highest court, yesterday rejected a challenge to the legitimacy of the Eurozone’s permanent bailout fund the European Stability Mechanism.

The ECJ rejected Irish politician Thomas Pringle’s argument that the ESM contravenes Article 125 of the European Union Treaty, which states that EU members states “shall not be liable for or assume the commitments…of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project.”

“The court has clarified that Eurozone creations such as the ESM and other bailout funds are not an EU fiscal system by the backdoor,” says Hugo Brady, analyst at think-tank the Centre for European Reform.

Elsewhere in Europe, the number of unemployed in France rose to its highest level in 14 years last month, official figures published Wednesday show.

French president Francois Hollande warned Tuesday that an ArcelorMittal steelworks in northern France could be nationalized. The company has given the French government a deadline of December 1 to find a buyer for two blast furnaces or it will close the plant, which employs 629 people.

“The president reaffirmed his determination to guarantee permanently the employment at the site,” a statement from the Elysée said.

The central bank of South Korea meantime may buy more gold before the end of this year, according to local press reports. Korea added 16 tonnes to its gold reserves in June, on top of the 40 tonnes it bought last year, according to data published by the World Gold Council.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Traders are back on risk aversion mode and the US dollar is forecast to register gains over its Australian counterpart today. Just a day removed from the holidays, and fresh debacles in the US Congress has already rattled the risk sentiment of the markets. With the Euro Zone able to reach a deal that would placate the markets for the meantime; the focus turns back to the world’s largest economy and its looming fiscal cliff.

The US fiscal policy standoff led to Asian shares ending a seven-day winning streak earlier today, as investors indulged in heavy profit-taking on disappointment over the negotiations in Congress. The story was the same for European equities, as elated investor sentiment over Tuesday’s optimism on a Greek debt deal was replaced with renewed fears over the US fiscal cliff.

US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that he is “disappointed” in the lack of progress in discussions to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff. “We only have a couple weeks to get something done, so we have to get away from the happy talk” and do “specific things.”

Analysts price in the viability that market focus would remain on discussions over a collection of $607 Billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2013 to prevent a short-term shock to the economy and reach an agreement on long-term deficit reduction. Some think that it is likely that Congress will find some weak compromise and push off some of the work into next year.

“Prolonged negotiations over the fiscal cliff create a risk-off environment,” said Daisaku Ueno, a senior foreign-exchange and fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo.

True enough, risk appetite dipped and is expected to continue to sour until progress is made on the fiscal cliff negotiations. The AUDUSD is advised to be sold today, but expect technical price corrections to still ensue.

For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Japanese yen appreciates against its major counterparts as Asian stocks declined. The drop came as US lawmakers struggled to reach a consensus on fiscal cliff issue boosting demand for safe-haven assets. The currency appreciated to its strongest in one week against the US dollar after Harry Reid, the US Senate Majority Leader, indicated that he was unhappy with the progress made in solving the fiscal cliff issues. The euro dropped over the yen for a third day before data forecast showed Germany’s jobless rate rose to the highest level.  Daisaku Ueno a senior foreign exchange fixed income strategist in Tokyo  at Mitsubishi UFJ  Morgan Stanley security Co, said that continued negotiation over the fiscal cliff will create unacceptable environment due to fall of dollar over yen as euro is most likely to edge down from perspective of economic fundamentals.

Japanese currency gained 81.79 per dollar, the strongest it has been since Nov.21, before selling at 81.83 during mid-day trading in Tokyo, which is 0.4% stronger than yesterday’s close. 17-nation currency has lost 0.6%to105.76 yen and 1.1% this week. The dollar has gained 0.1% to 0.2% when it was bought $1.2925-$1.2943 per euro from yesterday. The Japanese currency appreciated as Asia Pacific Index of shares dropped by 0.5 percent the same as the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock Index.

The dollar index was marginally changed at 80.399 after advancing by 0.2% yesterday. The dollar index is used by Intercontinental Exchange Inc. to track US dollar against six currencies. Makoto Noji, a currency strategist at SMBC Nikko Security Inc in Tokyo, said that due to worries over the U.S fiscal cliff and global economy are at risk. Due to limited demand for the euro, there is a sign of drop in the economic growth in Europe while in Germany unemployment rate stood at 6.9% in the region biggest economy.     

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

The euro turned bearish against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, despite the announcement that an agreement between euro-zone finance ministers to provide Greece with a new round of bailout funds had been reached. Crude oil also took losses during mid-day trading, amid fears that demand in the US is falling. Today, the main piece of economic news is likely to be the US New Home Sales figure, set to be released at 15:00. In addition, traders will want to pay attention to any developments regarding the ongoing US “fiscal cliff” negotiations.

Economic News

USD – Durable Goods Orders Data Leads to Dollar Gains

The US dollar turned moderately bullish against several of its main currency rivals during afternoon trading yesterday, following the release of a better than expected Core Durable Goods Orders figure. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback, which had fallen close to 30 pips during early morning trading, was able to gain close to 20 pips following the news to trade as high as 82.20. The USD/CHF advanced close to 40 pips during the European session, eventually trading as high as 0.9309 before a slight correction brought the pair to 0.9300.

Today, the US New Home Sales figure could generate some activity in the marketplace when it is released at 15:00 GMT. If the figure comes in above the forecasted 387K, the dollar may see additional gains against the yen and franc. Additionally, dollar traders will want to pay attention to any developments in the ongoing budget negotiations between US Congressional leaders. A final deal needs to be reached in the very near future before massive tax increases and spending cuts threaten to plunge the US back into recession. Progress in negotiations may result in dollar gains.

EUR – Greek Bailout Deal Does Little to Help Euro

The euro took losses against its safe-haven currency rivals during the European session yesterday, despite the approval of a deal to provide Greece with a new round of bailout funds. Analysts warned that while the news was positive overall for the euro-zone, disappointing economic indicators from throughout the region continued to weigh down on the common currency. The EUR/JPY fell more than 60 pips during the first part of the day, eventually trading as low as 106.11. The EUR/USD dropped some 65 pips to trade as low as 1.2920.

Today, traders should be warned that while yesterday’s bailout agreement provided a temporary solution to Greece’s debt problems, ongoing fears that the euro-zone could still slip deeper into recession may lead to additional losses for the EUR. Any signs that the economic situation in the EU is worsening are likely to weigh down on the currency. Furthermore, if US home sales data today comes in above expectations, the dollar may continue gaining on the euro.

Gold – Gold Takes Slight Losses amid EU Worries

The price of gold took slight losses throughout European trading yesterday, as concerns regarding the EU economic recovery caused investors to shift their funds to safe-haven assets. The precious metal fell as low as $1742 during afternoon trading, down more than $5 an ounce.

Today, gold traders will want to pay attention to news out of the US. Specifically, negotiations between Congressional leaders regarding the upcoming “fiscal cliff” could lead to volatility in the marketplace. Any indication that a deal is closer to being reached to avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases could help gold recoup some of yesterday’s losses.

Crude Oil – Signs of Weakened US Demand Causes Oil Prices to Drop

The price of crude oil fell more than $0.70 a barrel during the European session yesterday, amid signs that demand in the US is weakening. As the world’s leading consuming country, demand for oil in the US tends to have a significant overall impact on prices. By the beginning of evening trading yesterday, the commodity had dropped as low as $87.10.

Today, oil traders will want to pay attention to the US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 15:30 GMT. Analysts are forecasting that US inventories increased by around 400,000 barrels last week, which if true, would be a sign that demand has gone down and could result in additional bearish movement for crude.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Stochastic Slow on the daily chart is forming a bearish cross, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed into overbought territory. Opening short positions may be a wise choice for this pair.

GBP/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are beginning to narrow, signaling that this pair could see a price shift in the coming days. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart has formed a bearish cross, indicating that the price shift could be bearish. Opening short positions may be the smart choice for this pair.

USD/JPY

The Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart is approaching the overbought zone, signaling that this pair could see a downward correction in the coming days. This theory is supported by the same chart’s Williams Percent Range, which has crossed above the -20 line. Going short may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

While the weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed into the oversold zone, most other long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

The Wild Card

GBP/SGD

The daily chart’s Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that a price shift could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross, indicating that the price shift could be downward. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions ahead of possible downward movement.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Aussie is still trading low against the dollar following its decline yesterday as speculation rose a report on capital expenditure growth will show a decline. This has dampened the outlook for the Australian currency as well as the country’s economy. The Australian dollar has dropped for the third day against the yen as the market boosted bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its interest rates when they meet on December 4. The demand for the New Zealand dollar was limited after Graeme Wheeler, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, indicated that the strong currency is hurting the nation’s economy. The two south pacific currencies remained lower as the Asian stocks dropped; however, they were supported by reports from China indicating that the nation’s trade will have improved by the second quarter of 2013.

According to Adrew Salter, who is a currency strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd in Sydney, the non-mining capital investment improvements next year will determine whether there is need for policy makers to establish lower interest rates. Australian 10-year benchmark bond yields dropped by 8 basis points to 3.21 percent while the New Zealand two year swap rate declined by one and a half basis points to 2.605 percent. The Australian dollar dropped as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares dropped by 0.6 percent yesterday.

The market is expecting a report on business investment from Statistics bureau to show a rise of two percent in the third quarter, which is a slower pace that the 3.4 percent registered in the previous quarter. Data published yesterday indicated that the construction work in Australia improved by 1.7 percent in the third quarter; after a revised report indicated that it increased by 0.9 percent in the second quarter.

The Australian dollar bought $1.0447 at the close of trading in Sydney yesterday after it declined by 0.2 percent the previous day to trade at 1.0446. The Aussie dropped by 0.4 percent against the yen to trade at 85.50 yen. The New Zealand currency was trading at 82.10 US Cents and dropped by 0.3 percent against the yen to exchange at 67.19.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

The Japanese yen posted gains vs. both the US dollar and euro during overnight trading, as concerns regarding the upcoming US “fiscal cliff”, a batch of automatic tax increases and spending cuts set to take place at the beginning of the year, led to risk aversion in the marketplace. Negotiations to come up with a way to avoid the “fiscal cliff” between US Congressional leaders appear to have made little progress.

Fears that the “fiscal cliff” could send the US back into recession also weighed down on the price of gold, which fell more than $3 an ounce last night. Crude oil fell just over $0.40 a barrel amid signs that demand in the US is slowing down.

Main News for Today

US New Home Sales- 15:00 GMT
• Today’s figure is forecasted to come in at 387K, slightly lower than last month’s
• Any worse than expected news could lead to additional dollar losses against the yen

US Crude Oil Inventories- 15:30 GMT
• US inventories are forecasted to have gone up by 0.5M barrels last week
• A higher than expected figure today would signal decreased demand in the US, which would weigh down on oil prices in afternoon trading

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Hey Everyone,

Below are some market trends for today.

Good luck!

-Dan

Gold- May see upward movement today
Support- 1729.32
Resistance- 1747.82

Silver- May see upward movement today
Support- 33.30
Resistance- 34.46

Crude Oil- May see downward movement today
Support- 85.66
Resistance- 88.01

Dax 30- May see downward movement today
Support- 7223.26
Resistance- 7419.34

EUR/USD May see upward movement today
Support- 1.2882
Resistance- 1.2994

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.