Investors wait for Spanish Bailout News

Source: ForexYard

The anticipation of a Spanish bailout affected all major currencies and pairs yesterday. While a request for a bailout by Spain could see a short-term rally in the euro, there is some resistance to it in the medium to long term currency projections, given gloomy economic prospects, tough austerity measures and rising unemployment in the euro zone. Conversely, the unanticipated Australian rate cut caused the currency to devalue against all major pairs. Today, traders will want to pay attention to a batch of U.S news, most importantly the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which is set to be released at 12:15 GMT.

Economic News

USD – ADP Non-Farm figure Set to Impact Dollar Today

The U.S. dollar weakened slightly against most major rival currencies yesterday due to talks of a Spanish bailout. The rising EUR/USD reflected the weakening U.S. dollar when it gained 45 pips during yesterday morning’s trading. Since last week’s drop in price and this week’s market opening, the GBP/USD has seen much volatility in trading, sometimes as wide as 40 pips in an hour. After falling as low as 1.6130 during the morning session, the GBP was able to bounce back to the 1.6170 level by the end of the European session.

Today, look to the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change as a good indicator of Friday’s all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report. A better than expected result today may signal positive changes in the U.S. economy and could help the dollar in afternoon trading. In addition, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator of economic health, also comes out today and could lead to dollar volatility.

EUR – Spain Continues to Affect the EUR

Yesterday, the euro pulled away from a recent three-week low against the dollar on growing signs that Spain is ready to seek a bailout. But uncertainty over the timing of the request is keeping investors on edge with many selling the euro at higher levels. This news helped the EUR/GBP gain some 27 pips during the first half of the day before it turned downward in the early afternoon. The EUR/JPY only saw slight gains yesterday, due to news regarding the possible Spanish bailout and little news out of Japan.

Today, in addition to the ongoing developments in Spain, euro traders will also want to pay attention to a batch of US news. Specifically, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change has the potential to create significant market volatility. Any better than expected data could boost optimism in the US economic recovery, which may cause the euro to turn bearish against its main currency rivals, including the USD.

AUD – Australian rate cut leads to losses for the AUD

The Australian dollar fell against other major currencies yesterday, its lowest level since early September, due to the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut and concerns about slowing growth in China. Analysts had thought Australia’s central bank would wait until November to lower interest rates. The AUD/USD and AUD/CAD dropped 60 pips on the news of the rate cut.

Today, AUD traders should note that any better than expected U.S. data could result in the AUD/USD slipping further. Conversely, should any of the news come in below the forecasted level, the AUD could recoup some of yesterday’s losses.

Crude Oil – U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Scheduled to be Released Today

Crude oil prices saw significant movement yesterday as hopes Spain may be nearer to asking for a bailout as well as a weaker dollar provided some support, but a lack of major macroeconomic data left the commodity seeking firmer direction. After reaching as high as $92.90 a barrel, crude oil dropped to $92.40 level by afternoon trading.

Today, traders will want to U.S. Crude Oil Inventories figure scheduled to be released at 14:30 GMT. If the figure comes in above expectations, the price of crude oil could fall during afternoon trading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

While the Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has crossed over into oversold territory, most other long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

GBP/USD

A bearish cross has recently formed on the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic, indicating that a downward correction could occur in the coming days. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed over into overbought territory. Opening short positions may be the smart choice for this pair.

USD/JPY

In a sign that upward movement could occur in the near future, a bullish cross appears to be forming on the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA. That being said, most other technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts show this pair range trading. Taking a wait and see approach may be the smart choice.

USD/CHF

A bullish cross has formed on the weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic, signaling that this pair could see an upward correction in the coming days. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is very close to dropping into oversold territory. Traders may want to open long positions for this pair.

The Wild Card

AUD/CHF

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is approaching oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, a bullish cross appears to be forming on the same chart’s MACD/OsMA. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

Pound Strengthens Against the Dollar on UK Construction Data

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The UK sterling pound increased against the dollar after a two-day drop after a report from the UK showed that the construction sector in the country contracted at a slower pace than the market had predicted. The advance also came as UK gilts advanced after the borrowing cost fell in an auction of 3.5 billion pounds worth of ten-year UK bonds. The sterling remains down against the euro after dropping to a two-week low yesterday. A report expected to show UK services industry expanded last month will be released tomorrow.

Jeremy Stretch, who is the head of forex strategy in London at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said that the market is now looking at the pound-dollar pair, as they wait for the UK services data which is significant for the pound. Stretch predicted that the pound-dollar pair is likely to drop to 1.60 level this week rather than reach the resistance level at 1.62. A report released yesterday by the Markit Economics and Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed that the construction output gauge rose to 49.5 in September from August level of 49. The market was expecting a rise of 49.9. The services industry is expected to increase to 53 according to the market estimate.

The sterling performance against the dollar came despite the poor performance of the UK house prices in September. According to National Building Society report, the average cost of a home dropped by 0.4 percent from the August reading. The pound has advanced by 0.2 percent in the third quarter while the euro advanced by 0.1 percent. The dollar declined by 3.2 percent in the same period.

The UK construction data and the upcoming services sector report pushed the pound up by 0.3 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.6175 at the close of trading yesterday in London. The UK currency dropped by 0.3 percent against the euro to exchange at 80.11.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Market Review 3.10.12

Source: ForexYard

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After the EUR/USD took moderate losses in overnight trading, eventually reaching as low as 1.2876, the pair was able to bounce back during the early morning session and is currently at 1.2925. Crude oil extended yesterday’s downward trend last night, as investor fears about the global economic recovery continue to generate fears that global demand could continue moving down. The commodity has fallen well over $1 a barrel since yesterday afternoon and is currently trading around the $91.50 level. The price of gold has remained relatively unchanged for the last 24 hours, and is currently trading around the $1776 level.

Main News for Today

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change- 12:15 GDP
• The indicator is considered a valid predictor of Friday’s all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report
• Today’s news is forecasted to come in at 145K, well below last month’s figure of 201K
• Any worse than expected news could weigh down on the USD/JPY

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI- 14:00 GMT
• Forecasted to come in slightly below last month’s figure
• Should the indicator come in above the expected 53.2, risk taking among investors could boost the euro

US Crude Oil Inventories- 14:30 GMT
• Forecasted to come in at 1.6M, significantly higher than last week’s -2.4M
• If the news comes in above expectations, it may be taken as a sign that demand in the US is weakening which could result in the price of oil dropping

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Euro Trades Low Prior to ECB Meeting

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The 17-nation currency is trading at almost three-week low against the yen as Europe’s economy shows some signs of weakness, adding pressure to European Central Bank policy makers to consider fresh easing steps. The euro dropped against the yen after advancing for the last four days as speculation European retail sales dropped last month rose. The pound dropped against the euro as the Bank of England prepares to meet tomorrow. Pound losses were enhanced by speculation that UK services growth slowed last month. Euro advanced against the yen prior to BOJ meeting which starts tomorrow.

Hitoshi Asaoko, a Tokyo-based Senior Strategist at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co, noted that investors are not willing to buy the euro after reaching $1.30 as the European economic outlook is worse than expected. The market is expecting a decline in the European retail sales, predicting a decline of 0.1 percent in August from 0.2 percent registered in July. If this is confirmed today, when the European Union Statistics releases the figures, this would mark the first consecutive decline this year. The data would be followed by the ECB policy makers meeting which will be held tomorrow in Frankfurt, where policy makers are expected to keep the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.75 percent.

After the ECB unrolled a mortgage-backed bond-buying program last month, the policy makers are expected to discuss its progress so far. The euro traded at 0.2 percent low against the dollar to settle at $1.2898 at the start of trading yesterday in London. It had touched its lowest level since September 11 of $1.2804 on Oct. 1. The 17-nation currency was exchanging at 100.89 yen per euro from its close yesterday of 100.97 yen. Against the dollar, the yen was trading at 78.23 per dollar from yesterday’s close of 78.16. The yen had touched its weakest level against the dollar since September 21 of 78.31. The pound was exchanging at 79.98 pence per Euro after it fell by 0.2 percent. 

 

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Central Bank News Link List – Oct. 3, 2012: RBA seen cutting rates to lowest in 53 years

By Central Bank News

Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

The Unintended Consequence of the RBA’s Rate Cut

By MoneyMorning.com.au

As I’m sure you know, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the market yesterday with a 0.25 percentage point rate cut. This lowered the bank’s benchmark interest rate from 3.50% to 3.25%.

The reaction? The Australian dollar plunged by more than one cent, and the stock market cheered the news by rallying to its highest level in 14 months.

The media spin is that the RBA rate cut shouldn’t alarm you.

Apparently it doesn’t mean the world is going to hell in a hand basket, it’s just a pre-emptive strike against an expectation that mining investment will peak sometime next year…

My colleague Dan Denning has been exploring this issue in depth and spells out his thoughts in a new report on how to make money once the mining boom bites the dust. You can take in his ideas here.

While the end of the mining boom may be one of the reasons for the RBA’s action, I also think the current worldwide slowdown is another thing weighing on the RBA’s mind. Plus there’s the desire to stop the decline in house prices and bring down the Australian dollar.

The chart below shows the global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) versus the level of the MSCI world (a proxy for global stock markets):

Source: Zerohedge.com

It’s quite clear from the chart that the actual state of the world’s economy is a lot worse than the price of equities suggests. If the past is any guide, then we should be staring down the barrel of a significant correction in equities in the near future.

We all know that central bank money printing is pushing up stock markets worldwide. And quite frankly I’m getting a little tired of writing about it. But this is the world we live in. The central bankers know that all people focus on is the price of assets and whether or not they’re rising. Most people think if the stock market is going up then that means things are getting better and vice versa. Usually that would be true.

The Disconnect Between Markets and Normal Analysis

But the fact is that the markets are now completely disconnected from any normal fundamental analysis. The US Fed and ECB have lowered rates to near zero and the rest of the world is being bludgeoned into doing the same.

If the RBA left rates at, say, 5% the Aussie dollar would be flying. There are many sectors of the economy that are hurt by a strong dollar and even now they’re struggling with the Aussie near parity with the US dollar.

So we may think the RBA sets rates independently, but in reality what happens in the US has a big effect on the RBA’s decisions.

With rates worldwide being forced lower the relative prices of risk assets look more attractive, and hence we’ve seen a strong rally in high yielding stocks. As I write today the financials, consumer discretionary and property sectors are all up, as you would expect while the resources sector is down about 0.3%.

But we have to ask ourselves, if central banks have manipulated bond prices to a point where they offer very little to no value (for example real interest rates on US bonds are negative out to twenty years!) then is it correct to look at the relative values of other assets in relation to the heavily manipulated bond prices?

In other words, should you pay attention to the bond market and interest rates? Or is the mispricing of risk feeding through the system to a point where there is little value in buying almost any asset?

I believe that ultimately the latter will be correct. But as always the eternal question is when?

The chart above has me thinking that we’re closer than we think to seeing the music stop.

So when analysing the latest interest rate cut by the RBA, I’m not suggesting you pile into the banks or the retailers, because I think there are much larger macroeconomic forces at work. The unexpected rate cut shows a sense of panic on the part of the RBA, rather than foresight as they would like you to believe.

But there could be an unintended consequence to the RBA’s action. You’ve already seen a slight fall in the Aussie dollar (which I’m sure the RBA would be pleased with), but you could see a very sharp fall…which the RBA may not find so welcome.

My current technical analysis of the state of the Aussie dollar is that we’re in the early stages of a potentially large move to the downside.

Australian Dollar Weekly Chart

Source: Slipstream Trader

The key level to watch is the 2008 high of US$0.985c. The Aussie dollar has managed to hold above this level for two years apart from a couple of retests that found strong support. The rally from the lows in 2008/9 is already looking very long in the teeth with the uptrend from 2009-2011 convincingly broken in mid-2011.

Another failure below US$98.5c may not meet the strong buying pressure that it found on previous occasions.

The Chill Wind Blowing in the Aussie Economy

With China slowing and bulk commodity prices falling, our terms of trade are beginning to trend down. So we may see capitulation by stale longs who have bought over the previous two years above that level.

A sharp fall towards the October 2011 lows of about US$0.94 (the target in the above chart) would be on the cards then, and if that level doesn’t hold you could see the Aussie dollar in the 80′s.

A sharp move such as this would certainly mean some big adjustments in different sectors. Obvious candidates for a jump would be stocks with offshore revenues. The Aussie dollar price of gold would also shoot higher and may put a rocket under our languishing gold sector.

Add in the money printing by US Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke and you could see the US dollar gold price go higher too. And that would give you the makings of a significant rally.

Apart from that I think the knee jerk reaction of buying stocks at multi-year highs due to the rate cut is misguided. The RBA knows there is a chill wind blowing, so it makes more sense to batten down the hatches than raise the mainsail.

Murray Dawes
Editor, Slipstream Trader

Related Articles

How to Make Money from the End of the Mining Boom

The Grave Mistake of Telling the Truth

The Only Winner in the Currency Wars


The Unintended Consequence of the RBA’s Rate Cut

Unfettered Moral Hazard Thanks to Economic Socialism

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Have you noticed that the world is on a creeping – some (that would be me) would say cascading – slide into socialism?

It started with one giant step in the direction of economic socialism.

Economic socialism is specifically the shared risk the public has been yoked into pulling on behalf of banks.

The unmistakable and indelible footprints of socialism’s latest forward march have been made by collectivist central bankers, pushed forward (at least that’s the direction for them) by their constituents, the bankers of the world.

The Stagnant Future We All Face

The bankers’ jackboots are filled with stinking feet itching from the fungus of greed. And sadly, the sole of those boots bears the unmistakable “Made in America” stamp.

What’s flooded into all those succeeding footprints is the stagnant future we all face. The march towards global hegemony of bankers’ birth rights makes that evident.

It’s not ironic that bankers espouse capitalist, free-market doctrines, but under cover of their ostensible handlers – their central bankers – prosper and propagate behind a Marshall Plan whose manifesto is socialized risk; it’s sickening.

The moral hazard of socialized risk, of economic socialism, is unfettered.

The United States let the biggest banks in America get bigger. We let them bridle us, saddle us, and ride us into the ground. And they are all bigger now.

How can there be any free market discipline if there is no free market? How can moral hazard be corralled if there are no fences around the risks banks are allowed to take, given their size and power?

We’re facing QE4ever (that’s quantitative easing) on account of the banks being subject to lawsuits and an attack on their capital.

Oh, you didn’t get that?

Here’s the real reason we have stimulus to the nth degree here in America…

The stimulus is not for us. It’s for “them” – the bankers.

Of course, it’s being done under the guise of the dual mandate, gifted to the Federal Reserve by our Congress a few decades ago. You know, the dual mandate that says, besides price stability, the Fed is tasked with manifesting full employment, too.

Forget that that’s an abdication of fiscal policy, an abdication by our Congress and American leadership (what’s that?).

Save the Banks, Bad Luck for the Little Guy

Just realize that it was a gift to the Central Bank to cover the butts (print money) of their banker constituents when they (the greedy bankers) get themselves into trouble with their moneymaking schemes.

Banks are facing billions in lawsuits. They’ve already paid out billions.

Bank of America just settled a class-action suit for $2.4 billion. What was the suit about? BOA executives misled shareholders at the time of the financial crisis. Forget the specifics; was there a single bank in America that didn’t mislead the public and their shareholders at the time of the financial crisis? Not a one.

And the Fed? Did they mislead the public? Of course they did. But they can’t be sued.

So, the Fed is making sure the banks have the money they need, the liquidity they need, to deal with ongoing litigation, litigation that won’t end any time soon.

And about those capital ratios…

Basel III was supposed to increase the equity capital ratios banks have to maintain. What happened? The benchmarks have all been raised, but they are far lower than all the academics and prudent regulators wanted.

The main equity capital ratio was supposed to be between 7% and 11%, with the consensus being 10%. We got 7%. How? The U.S. Treasury Secretary and the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency undermined the Basel Committee’s intentions and teamed up with the French and Germans to lower the ratio.

How do I know? It’s in “Bull by the Horns,” the new book by Sheila Bair, the former chairman of the FDIC. (Read it.)

Socialized risk is killing the free market “clearing” mechanisms that would have made our pain coming out of the financial crisis really bad. But they’d also put us much farther along in the healing process than we are now.

Instead, today, we’re deep in the march towards socialism, with the central bankers of America and the world leading the charge.

And if this isn’t cut out like a cancer ought to be, our economic future will be subject to a constant nagging fungus – the fungus of failed capitalism.

Shah Gilani
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Money Morning (USA)

From the Archives…

Why This Crisis Still Has a Long Way to Run
28-09-2012 – Kris Sayce

We Said This Four Years Ago, But Nobody Would Listen
27-09-2012 – Kris Sayce

The Grave Mistake of Telling the Truth
26-09-2012 – Murray Dawes

The Mission Creep Destroying Wealth Around the World
25-09-2012 – Tim Price

He Wobbles, He Flails, He Prints
24-09-2012 – Nick Hubble


Unfettered Moral Hazard Thanks to Economic Socialism

USDCHF breaks below upward trend line

USDCHF breaks below the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, suggesting that a cycle top has been formed at 0.9437, and the upward movement from 0.9239 has completed. Further decline to test 0.9239 previous low support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 0.9971 (Jul 24 high). Resistance is at 0.9437 only break above this level could trigger another rise to 0.9500 area.

usdchf

Forex Signals

FX interventions can lower global bond yields – BIS paper

By Central Bank News

  Japan’s foreign exchange interventions in 2003-2004 not only depressed U.S. and Japanese bond yields but also the yields of other countries whose bond markets were part of the integrated global bond market, according to a working paper from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
     The authors argue that intervention in currency markets is similar to the large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) that have become popular with central banks as an unconventional tool of monetary policy when interest rates are at the zero bound.
     While currency intervention in the 1930s involved gold, today’s intervention by central banks typically involves the purchase of bonds. But in addition to affecting the value of a currency through intervention, the purchase of bonds results in easier monetary conditions, either though the effect on market liquidity or through a portfolio balance effects.
     One of the more recent examples of such as global portfolio balance effect was a drop in international bond yields in response to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s asset purchases in 2008-2009, the authors note, referring to a 2010 study.
     Building on earlier work by current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who in 2004 established that U.S. government bond yields declined during the period of Japanese foreign exchange intervention, the authors find that the same intervention also caused a decline in long-term interest rates around the world.

    “We find that simultaneously, government bond yields and interest rate swap rates decreased in a range of industrial countries, including Japan, as well as in emerging market economies whose bond markets are well integrated into global bond markets. This points to a global portfolio balance effect that reflects the global integration of many bond markets,” the paper said.
    The paper thus offers an insight into today’s debate over easy monetary policy in advanced economies and its effect on other countries, either their currencies or their asset prices – an issue known as the currency wars.
    In addition, the findings also illustrate how the policies and intervention of a central bank in one country affects other countries, a point that the general manger of the BIS, Jaime Caruana, has argued should be systematically taken into account by policymakers.
     While the U.S. may have welcomed lower bond yields as a side-effect of Japan’s intervention in 2003, China’s investment in U.S. bonds in 2005-2006 would have been less welcome as it may have contributed to the so-called conundrum of interest rates, the paper said.
    “In general, when cycles are not in synchronicity, as in early 2011 when emerging market economies were tightening monetary policy as leading economies sought to ease monetary conditions, large bond purchases, whether as unconventional monetary policy or as an incidental consequence of currency intervention, would be welcome in some places and problematic in others,” the paper said.

    Click to read the paper: “Currency Intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons” by Petra Gerlach-Kristen, Robert McCauley and Kazuo Ueda.


    www.CentralBankNews.info

Global insurers weather financial crises – IAIS report

By Central Bank News
     Insurance companies worldwide escaped relatively unscathed from the global financial crises and were better capitalized at the end of 2011 – the year of the Japanese earthquake/tsunami – than at the end of 2007, according to the first-ever report on the global insurance market.
    The Global Insurance Market Report (GIMAR), which covers the period between 2007 and 2011, was released by Basel-based International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) and covers both primary insurers and reinsurers.
    “Overall reinsurers lost more equity due to the financial crises in 2008 than they lost due to the unprecedented catastrophes in 2011,” said the report, adding that economic losses from 2011’s 820 natural disasters and nearly 30,000 deaths exceeded $350 billion, the largest losses in history.
    The amount of insured losses in 2011 was around $105 billion, the second largest in history after 2005’s $120 billion (in 2011 value) when the U.S. Gulf Coast was hit by hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
    Worst affected by the global financial crises was the general insurance sector, known as non-life insurance in some countries, with premium growth hit hard in 2009 and 2010, especially in Western Europe where premiums written contracted by nearly 6 percent in 2009 and just over 1 percent in 2010.
    The life insurance business was less affected by the crises with some deterioration seen in 2009 and then a one percent contraction in 2010. The reinsurance sector was least affected, with premium growth rates remaining positive from 2008 through 2011.
    GIMAR, which IAIS intends to publish twice a year beginning next spring, is based on a sample of public data from 20 globally active insurers and reinsurers and confidential data from 48 large global reinsurers.
    Like most investors, the insurance industry became more cautious in its investments during the financial crises, with the proportion of fixed income investments rising to 61 percent from 56 percent between 2011 and 2007.
    Meanwhile, the share of investments allocated to equity declined to 7 percent from 11 percent by 2011, an overall shift that reduces the short-term risk of the insurers’ balance sheets, but “it comes at the price of higher interest rate risk at some time in the future,” the report cautioned.
    But overall, the sector’s return on investments (ROI) during the crises was resilient, with 75 percent of all primary insurers reporting positive returns throughout the whole period, the report said.
     Reinsurers also showed positive returns through the crises with the average ROI falling to a minimum 2.49 percent in 2011 from a maximum of 3.15 percent in 2007.
    The report tracked the development of the insurance sector’s equity capital from the end of 2007 and it shows a short-lived hit from the financial crises. By the third quarter of 2010, all losses by the primary insurance sector was recovered.
    Reinsurers were even more resilient, with a small temporary loss that was fully recovered by the third quarter of 2009.
    “By the end of the period, the reinsurers in our sample reported an aggregate equity capital of 130.8 percent relative to the 100 percent reported in the fourth quarter of 2007,” GIMAR said.

    www.CentralBankNews.info