What Impact does Oil have on the Syrian Civil War?
By OilPrice.com
There is a popular belief in the Middle East that Washington’s foreign policy, particularly as it relates to this precarious region, is largely driven by America’s dependency on, and insatiable appetite for Arab oil. One can make a good argument for that.
Had Syria been a major oil producing country chances are the US would have already dispatched military forces to impose a pax Americana and to put a stop to the horrific fighting that has been slowly, but without any doubt, ripping Syria apart and dismantling the infrastructures that make the Syrian state what it is today. Even if the war was to end today it would take years for Syria to return to its pre-war position from an economic and military perspective.
Some analysts believe that oil is what drove the United States to become militarily involved in Kuwait in 1990-91, in Iraq in 2003 and more recently in Libya.
Asides from some stealth behind the scenes support to a few of the many rebel groups engaged in the conflict that has been forthcoming in the form of weapons (mostly light weapons) and some intelligence delivered to a handful of the multitude of forces demanding the departure of Syrian President Bashar Assad, the US-NATO-Saudi-Qatari alliance has refrained from moving to the next step; full scale military intervention. Last week the Qataris made some attempts at the UN General Assembly in New York to drum up support for an Arab military intervention in Syria but that did not seem to take any traction with other Arab countries.
In the 18 months since the Syrian strife began in earnest human rights groups claim that some 30,000 people have been killed so far and some 350,000 Syrians have fled their country seeking refuge in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. If the current pace of refugees continues – and there is nothing to indicate it will abate anytime soon — human rights groups and the UN relief agencies anticipate that number to jump to a staggering 700,000 people by the end of this year. In a country with a total population of some 20 million, those are frightful numbers. Those are frightful numbers by any means and with winter just around the corner the fate of the refugees becomes even more concerning.
While Syria may not be a major oil producer, it does however have some oil, though not abundantly, therefor placing the country in a non-strategic second-tier position, as far as the interests of the United States and its allies in the region are concerned. Nevertheless, it is Syria’s geographic location on the old caravan route between Turkey and Arabia, or as it used to be known in the days of old, between Constantinople and the Hijaz — that still holds the same strategic importance today as it did in the days of the caravan trains.
The names on the maps may have changed, Constantinople becoming Istanbul and the Hijaz, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, but very little else has changed in the end game except for the caravans giving way to trade routes and oil pipelines. And unless the geography of the region can change (unlikely), Syria remains very much the pathway to the Arab hinterland.
During the last several decades Lebanon and Turkey have been described as gateways to the Middle East. And indeed, they often are. However, it is important to remember that just as double security doors that one finds in many banks where customers enter the establishment through two sets of doors, where the first set needs to shut before the second set can be opened, Syria plays the same role in the region today. Lebanon and Turkey may be the “gateways” to the Levant and beyond, however in both instances the next overland point for any overland traveller or goods goes obligatory through Syria. If people have to travel through Syrian territory to get to/from points beyond these traditional “gateways,” then so do goods and natural resource such as oil and natural gas pipelines.
Understand that and you can begin to understand part of the on-going conflict in the Middle East today.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/
By. Claude Salhani for Oilprice.com
Fibonacci in Nature: The Golden Ratio and the Golden Spiral
The more you learn about Fibonacci, the more amazed you will be at its importance
October, 2012
By Elliott Wave International
If you’ve studied the financial markets, even for a short time, you’ve probably heard the term “Fibonacci numbers.” The ratios and relationships derived from this mathematical sequence are applied to the markets to help determine targets and retracement levels.
Did you know that Fibonacci numbers are found in nature as well? In fact, we can see examples of the Fibonacci sequence all around us, from the ebb and flow of ocean tides to the shape of a seashell. Even our human bodies are examples of Fibonacci. Read more about the fascinating phenomenon of Fibonacci in nature.
Let’s start with a refresher on Fibonacci numbers. If we start at 0 and then go to the next whole integer number, which is 1, and add 0 to 1, that gives us the second 1. If we then take that number 1 and add it again to the previous number, which is of course 1, we have 1 plus 1 equals 2. If we add 2 to its previous number of 1, then 1 plus 2 gives us 3, and so on. 2 plus 3 gives us 5, and we can do this all the way to infinity. This series of numbers, and the way we arrive at these numbers, is called the Fibonacci sequence. We refer to a series of numbers derived this way as Fibonacci numbers.
We can go back to the beginning and divide one number by its adjacent number – so 1�1 is 1.0, 1�2 is .5, 2�3 is .667, and so on. If we keep doing that all the way to infinity, that ratio approaches the number .618. This is called the Golden Ratio, represented by the Greek letter phi (pronounced “fie”). It is an irrational number, which means that it cannot be represented by a fraction of whole integers. The inverse of .618 is 1.618. So, in other words, if we carry the series forward and take the inverse of each of these numbers, that ratio also approaches 1.618. The Golden Ratio, .618, is the only number that will also be equal to its inverse when added to 1. So, in other words, 1 plus .618 is 1.618, and the inverse of .618 is also 1.618.
This is a diagram of the Golden Spiral. The Golden Spiral is a type of logarithmic spiral that is made up of a number of Fibonacci relationships, or more specifically, a number of Golden Ratios. For example, if we take a specific arc and divide it by its diameter, that will also give us the Golden Ratio 1.618. We can take, for example, arc WY and divide it by its diameter of WY. That produces the multiple 1.618. Certain arcs are also related by the ratio of 1.618. If we take the arc XY and divide that by arc WX, we get 1.618. If we take radius 1 (r1), compare it with the next radius of an arc that’s at a 90° angle with r1, which is r2, and divide r2 by r1, we also get 1.618.
Now here are some pictures of this Golden Spiral in various aspects of nature. For example, on the left is a whirlpool that displays the Golden Spiral and, therefore, these Fibonacci mathematical properties. We also see the Golden Spiral in the formation of hurricanes (center) and in the chambered nautilus shell (right), which also happens to be a common background that Elliott Wave International uses for a number of its presentations and graphics.
We can also see the Golden Ratio in the DNA molecule. Research has shown that if you look at the height of the DNA molecule relative to its length, it is in the proportion of .618:1. If we look at the components of the DNA molecule, there is a major groove in the left section and a minor groove in the right section. The major groove is equal to .618 of the entire length of the DNA molecule, and the minor groove is equal to .382 of the entire length.
This graphic of the human body also shows how the Golden Ratio exists in certain relationships of the human anatomy.
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Gold Bounces Back after Spanish Ratings Cut, Investors “Still Confident in Gold” but Fresh Buying “Not Seen on Monetary Policy Alone”
London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Thursday 11 October 2012, 07:30 EDT
SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices climbed back above $1770 an ounce during Thursday morning’s London trading – still a few Dollars below where it started the week – as the Euro also recovered ground following falls overnight after Spain had its credit rating cut.
Stock markets edged higher this morning, as did most industrial commodities, while US Treasury bonds fell and German bund prices gained.
Silver bullion climbed as high as $34.33 an ounce, also slightly down on the week.
“We are watching support [for silver] at $33.37,” says bullion bank Scotia Mocatta’s latest technical analysis.
“A breach through that level…could indicate a double top in silver, which would target the low $31 level.”
The volume of gold bullion backing the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), held steady yesterday at an all-time high of 1340.5 tonnes.
Earlier this week, holdings of gold by all ETFs tracked by newswire Reuters hit a new record at 2333.7 tonnes.
“The continuously rising ETF holdings show that investors are still confident in gold in the longer term,” says Jinrui Futures analyst Chen Min in China, adding that last month’s US Federal Reserve decision to extend quantitative easing indefinitely “has put a floor under gold”.
The European Central Bank also announced open-ended bond buying last month, while the Bank of Japan extended its long running QE program.
“Additional monetary policy easing in the United States and other countries is no longer fresh news,” points out HSBC commodities analyst James Steel.
“We do not anticipate further significant buying of gold based on monetary policy accommodation alone.”
“We have seen easing policies come from both Europe and the US in recent weeks,” adds a note from Ed Meir, analyst at commodities brokerage INTL FCStone, “but we have yet to see it coming from China, which in some ways, is the last ‘hold-out’ and one that could provide the gold market another lift in the event that authorities signal more monetary relaxation.”
“[Chinese policymakers] don’t seem to be rushing to pump growth up again,” reckons Paul Sheard, chief global economist at ratings agency Standard & Poor’s.
“I think they’re somewhat comfortable in the 7-8% zone [for GDP growth]. But, were the Chinese economy to show signs of dipping below this level, then I do think you would see the policymakers galvanized into action.”
“China is no longer in the mood to provide a massive stimulus [as it did in 2008],” agrees HSBC group chief economist Stephen King.
“China’s exports have succumbed to the downswing in world trade. Once the global economy’s savior, China has become its latest scalp.”
Gold bullion imports into China from Hong Kong, the primary conduit for Chinese gold imports, fell to 53.5 tonnes in August – 29% down on a month earlier and a 26% year-on-year drop – figures published by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department show.
“Increased prices have clearly left their mark on gold demand,” says today’s Commodities Daily note from Commerzbank.
“A further reason for the lower net import figures recently is likely to have been the higher level of domestic gold production, which in August totalled 41.4 tonnes according to the Chinese government.”
Here in Europe, Spain had its credit rating cut to one notch above junk last night by S&P, which downgraded Spain from BBB+ to BBB- while maintaining a negative outlook.
“The negative outlook on the long-term rating reflects our view of the significant risks to Spain’s economic growth and budgetary performance,” said an S&P statement.
“[There is a] lack of a clear direction in Eurozone policy…[and] the deepening economic recession is limiting the Spanish government’s policy options.”
Countries like Spain should be given more time to reduce their government deficits, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said Thursday.
“That is what I have advocated for Portugal, this is what I have advocated for Spain, and this is what we are advocating for Greece,” Lagarde told reporters in Tokyo, where the IMF and World Bank are holding their annual meetings.
Lagarde added that Greece should be granted the additional two years prime minister Antonis Samaras is seeking to implement austerity measures.
Earlier this week, the IMF cut its growth forecast for the Euro area and projected a sharper 2013 contraction for Spain than previously forecast three months ago.
Gold mining workers on strike in South Africa have rejected the latest wage offer from employers, the national Union of Mineworkers has said.
“This was a final offer from the companies,” said NUM spokesman Lesiba Seshoka.
Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices
Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault’s weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+
(c) BullionVault 2012
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
AUD/USD: Weak Trade and Labor Figures to Debilitate the US Currency
Article by AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions
The US dollar is seen to lose ground opposite the Australian dollar today as weak economic data from the world’s largest economy and a positive jobs report from the Land Down Under is believed to improve sentiment for the Aussie. A rather downbeat Beige Book from the Federal Reserve yesterday and expected bleak trade and labor figures from the US is foreseen to underscore the fragility of the US economy.
The Fed reported yesterday that economic activity was expanding modestly last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, though pockets of weakness and strained labor markets remain a problem in some districts. In its September Beige Book report, which is based on accounts from the 12 district Fed banks, the central bank said that hiring conditions were little changed though labor market activity in New York and Chicago weakened. Consumer spending appeared to be holding up despite the soft jobs market. Nevertheless, the pace of growth seemed consistent with the US economy’s recent track record of weakness. According to economists, describing an economy expanding modestly is a softer tone from the Fed’s previous reports describing it as a moderate expansion. Second-quarter growth came in at a meager 1.3 percent annual rate, and the report suggests that the US economy failed to recover strongly in Q3.
Today, the US Labor Department is awaited to reveal that the number of individuals claiming jobless related benefits edged up last week, another sign that the labor sector remains sluggish. Unemployment Claims is estimated to have inclined from 367,000 to 368,000 last week. The increase suggests that businesses continue to take a more cautious stance amid the uncertainty related to the upcoming presidential election, domestic fiscal policy, and the lingering European debt issues. Meanwhile, higher crude oil costs and slower global growth are deemed to have increased the US trade deficit in August. The trade gap is projected to have widened from $42 Billion in July to $44.1 Billion in August. The recent pickup in the cost of energy could push up the nation’s import bill and costs for American companies. At the same time, a recessionary environment in Europe and slower growth in China and other emerging markets have likely curbed demand for US products. With exports providing a source of strength for the economic expansion in the second quarter, weaker trade figures likewise suggest another modest reading in the September quarter.
Meanwhile, the Aussie will likely be supported by upbeat labor market figures for September. The Australian economy created 14,500 jobs last month, exceeding forecasts of a 5,100 increase. Although the jobless rate rose from 5.1 percent to an almost two-and-a-half year high of 5.4 percent, that was because more people looked for work. The participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Australian looking for a job inclined from 65.0 percent to 65.2 percent in September. Considering these, a short position is advised for the AUD/USD trades today.
For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx
U.S. Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims May Impact Trading
Source: ForexYard
Yesterday, traders looked to invest in riskier assets, strengthening the euro and devaluing the dollar. A lack of significant overall news had investors looking to today’s news for clues as to the level of risk appetite in the marketplace. Investors will want to note that the U.S. Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims will likely have an impact on overall trading when the numbers are released at 12:30 GMT. Better than expected Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims figures may mean the dollar can gain back some of the ground it lost yesterday.
Economic News
USD – U.S. Unemployment Claims set to Generate Volatility
The U.S. dollar devalued in yesterday morning’s trading against other currencies as investors looked to trade riskier assets. The AUD/USD had a morning low of 1.0182 before reaching a high of 1.0254. The USD/CHF fell during this morning’s trading from a high of 0.9430 to a low of 0.9387.
Today the release of the U.S. Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims figures at 12:30 GMT may have a significant impact on trading. If the numbers are positive, the dollar may regain some of the ground it lost from yesterday morning’s trading.
EUR – Risk Taking Gives Euro Moderate Boost
Yesterday, as investor shifted their funds to riskier assets, the value of the euro improved. The EUR/USD and EUR/JPY made quick rallies during morning trading and both pairs gained around 60 pips to reach as high as 1.2900 and 101.07, respectively.
Euro traders will want to watch major new releases out of the U.S. today. If the U.S. Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims figures come in below expectations, the euro may be able to extend yesterday’s bullish momentum.
CAD – Canadian Trade Balance Figure may Boost CAD
After risk aversion brought the USD/CAD down to 0.9767 during morning trading, the pair was able to recoup most of its losses later in the day to trade as high as 0.9794. Also, due to traders investing in riskier assets, the EUR/CAD rose significant during mid-day trading by more than 50 pips to reach the 1.2620 level.
Today, investors in the Canadian dollar will want to note that the Canadian Trade Balance will be released at 12:30 GMT, the same time as the U.S. Trade Balance figure. If the Canadian data comes in above expectations and the U.S. Trade Balance numbers are negative, the CAD could see significant gains today.
Crude Oil – U.S. Crude Oil Inventories to Be Released in Afternoon Trading
Supply side fears in the Middle East caused the price of crude oil to spike in afternoon trading yesterday. By the afternoon session, the commodity shot up close to $2 a barrel to come within reach of the $94 level.
Today, commodities traders will want to note the release of U.S. economic news, including the Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be announced at 15:00 GMT. If the U.S. inventories data comes in higher than expected, the price of oil might trend downward during the afternoon session.
Technical News
EUR/USD
While the weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed over into overbought territory, most other long-term technical indicators place this pair in the neutral zone. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the coming days.
GBP/USD
A bullish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the same chart’s Williams Percent Range has dropped into the oversold zone. Traders may want to open long positions ahead of possible bullish movement.
USD/JPY
The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart appear to be narrowing, signaling that this pair could see a price shift in the coming days. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart has formed a bullish cross, indicating that the price shift could be upward. Going long may be the preferred strategy for this pair.
USD/CHF
The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is currently in oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bullish cross. Traders may want to open long positions for this pair.
The Wild Card
Soybeans
The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is approaching the oversold zone, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, a bullish cross has formed on the same chart’s MACD/OsMA. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible bullish movement.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Pound advances against Euro as Markel meets Samaras
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The sterling pound rose against the euro yesterday, after dropping for the last seven days following concerns that euro area crisis may delay recovery in the kingdom. The advance came after Angela Markel, the German Chancellor, met with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to discuss austerity measures and Greece’s place in the euro area. The UK currency, however, dropped to its lowest level in a month against the US dollar after the International Monetary Fund cut the economic outlook for the UK and as a report from the country showed that manufacturing sector declined more than economist forecast. Pound’s advance against the euro was supported by a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, showing that the UK economy grew at the fastest pace in five years in the last quarter.
According to Neil Jones, a London-based European hedge-fund head at the Mizuho Corporate Bank, the lack of agreement between Greece and its creditors is forcing investors to lose confidence in the euro hence selling it against the euro which translates to its weakness against the pound. The pound strengthened against the euro as Angela Markel indicated that she wants Greece to remain in the euro zone. She said that little remains to be done and they have tackled the bigger part of the crisis. She expressed confidence in the ability of Greece to meet the austerity measures put in place.
The situation in Greece is on the spotlight again as the European Central Bank, IMF, and the European Commission review the progress made in ensuring austerity measures are adhered to in Greece before the payment of 31 billion euros from bailout commitment. The involvement of European Commission and the IMF has been opposed by Spain, which has refrained from asking for bailout citing stringent prerequisite terms.
The pound strengthened by 0.5 percent against the euro to trade at 80.55 pence per euro at the close of trading in London yesterday. The UK currency dropped by 0.2 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.5988.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
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News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Indonesia holds rate, says economy growing, inflation low
By Central Bank News
The central bank of Indonesia kept its benchmark BI Rate unchanged at 5.75 percent, as expected, saying inflation was low and under control while the domestic economy continues to grow quite well, though not as fast as earlier expected due to the weaker global growth.
Bank Indonesia (BI) said the economy was expected to grow an annual rate of 6.3 percent in the third quarter, supported by consumption and domestic demand-oriented investments. But falling exports have affected production and export-oriented invested, it added.
“Looking ahead, economic growth will still be supported by strong domestic demand and there is potential for improvement in exports though this is still overshadowed by global economic uncertainties,” BI said in a statement.
Bank Indonesia has only changed rates once this year, in February when it cut by 25 basis points.
The bank expects Indonesia’s economy to expand between 6.1-6.5 percent in 2012 and by 6.3-6.7 percent in 2013. In the second quarter, Gross Domestic Product expanded by 6.4 percent from the same quarter last year, up from 6.3 percent in the first quarter.
BI said global inflation was relatively moderate, which has allowed many countries to ease policy to improve growth. This has also created a positive sentiment in global financial markets and lead to capital flows to emerging countries.
Inflation in Indonesia is under control, the bank said, noting an annual rate of 4.31 percent in September, down from 4.48 percent in August. The BI targets annual inflation of 4.5 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
BI said it would continue to strengthen its coordination with the government to manage demand and improve the balance of payments.
www.CentralBankNews.info
Possible Reasons Why Spain Will Not Request bailout in October
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has refused to ask for bailout from the European Central Bank. In the official statement, Spain has refused to request aid from OMT as it tries to understand the situation. Rajoy has been quoted repeatedly saying that the government is evaluating its options and what it would mean if the country requested for bailout by signing the Outright Monetary Transaction contract. However, there are other pertinent issues in the country that have resulted to the delay in requesting for help.
Some of the reasons for this delay include the temporary improvement of the market conditions in Europe. After Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, announced that he will do anything possible to save the euro, confidence returned in the region and the government borrowing cost reduced with short-term and long-term bond yields falling. The low yields have lowered the pressure on Spain to ask for help. Another pertinent issue is the regional elections to be held in October. It is in the best interest for Mariano Rajoy to hold this request as this will provide a higher chance of winning the election.
Another reason that has been given for the continued delay, is that the government wants to deal with one issue at a time. Rajoy has made a significant change in VAT, increasing the medium level VAT to 10 percent from 8 percent. The higher level was pushed to 21 percent from 18 percent. This has caused many products to move up; together with other cuts, this has caused an outrage in the country. As such, October is seen as a bad time to upset the public. The lack of pressure from Germany has also lessened the probability of Spain requesting for bailout in October. According to Germany’s calculation, Spain’s request would upset further the German public which is not supportive of the ESM fund.
These conditions will have weathered by the end of October hence the country will be in a better position to request for bailout. The market conditions are expected to change as we head to the end of the month and the internal elections will be over. In addition negotiations between Spain and EU peers are expected to be completed this month. With worsening conditions and increasing pressure, the Spanish and German publics are expected to be ready by end month. However, if Spanish yields shoot, the Spanish government may request for bailout sooner than later.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
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News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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Brazil cuts rate for 7th time this year to 7.25%
By Central Bank News
The central bank of Brazil cut its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent, a move that was expected by some economists, with the bank citing a challenging international economy.
Banco Central do Brasil’s decision to cut its main interest rate for a seventh time this year and its tenth cut in a row, divided the Monetary Policy Committee, with five committee members voting to cut the rate and three voting to keep it unchanged.
Inflation in Brazil rose to an annual rate of 5.28 percent in September from 5.24 percent in August, prompting some economists to forecast that the central bank would keep rates unchanged. The central bank targets inflation of 4.5 percent, plus/minus 2 percentage points.
But other economists were expecting a cut due to weakening economic growth. Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product rose by only 0.50 percent in the second quarter from the same quarter last year, down from an annual rate of 0.8 percent in the first and 1.4 percent in the fourth.
The central bank has now cut its key interest rate by 375 basis points this year.
www.CentralBankNews.info