The Aussie has acquired some notoriety over the years the as the world’s leading commodity currency. Australia as a nation is digging up its minerals and shipping them to China and in return enjoying wealth and prosperity. Since Australia has become so dependent on China buying these hard assets for its GDP, should Chinese demand slow down Australia would suffer a significant economic loss.
In the short term the Aussie has been correcting its gain against the US Dollar from the $1.06 area. The Aussie has been as high as $1.10 in recent history and has served as a point of resistance since first touching this rarified air in April 2011. In the daily chart below we can see how the TSI began consolidating while price moved higher from June 20th to August 10th and then ultimately rolled over with the price selloff. The Aussie is now seeking a short term bounce and the Fibonacci levels may help us identify where that bounce will come. No sign yet but having only reached 38.2% there are still multiple levels ahead of us.
In the big picture on the weekly chart I wonder if perhaps this long bull run for the Aussie is coming to an end since the TSI is now below its long term moving average. If the sell off continues and price makes its way through the .9400 area we can surmise that the bull market for the Aussie is over and a bear one has replaced it. See the charts.
