Energy Markets Being Driven by Fear

By OilPrice.com
 

Crude oil demand in the United States is down to its lowest level since the onset of the global economic recession. A lackluster economic recovery, coupled with cautious consumer sentiment, is keeping demand for petroleum products suppressed. Nevertheless, lingering concerns over geopolitical tensions with Iran has prompted some governments to raise the possibility of releasing strategic petroleum reserves. Fundamentally, it seems, markets are well supplied, though it may be emotional factors driving certain aspects of the energy market.

 

The American Petroleum Institute, in its report for July, finds that crude oil demand is down to its lowest levels in roughly four years. U.S. petroleum deliveries for July declined to around 18 million barrels per day, the lowest level for the month since 1995 and the lowest overall since the onset of the global economic recession in 2008. Oil production in the United States, however, reached 6.2 million bpd, the highest for any July figure since 1998 and total refinery inputs grew 2.3 percent in July to reach their highest level for the year.

 

John Felmy, the API’s chief economist, said lower consumer demand was in large part a reflection of the lackluster U.S. economic recovery and lingering pessimism in the eurozone.

 

“While retail sales for July are up and housing has improved, the weak petroleum demand numbers are a strong indication the economy is still faltering,” he said.

 

Oil for September delivery retreated 0.1 percent Monday to $95.88 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ending four days of advances. Outside of the United States, the Joint Organization Data Initiative reports that crude oil production from Saudi Arabia in June reached its highest level in more than 30 years. Crude oil futures began declining last week on talk by some Western governments of a possible release of strategic petroleum reserves. White House spokesman Josh Earnest confirmed that a release from SPR “is an option that is on the table” in Washington.

 

The last time governments tapped into their strategic reserves in 2011, Libyan oil production was shuttered by civil war. When oil prices hovered about $100 per barrel early this year, however, most of the market was concerned by tensions with Iran more than a physical disruption, as was the case last year.

 

API said much of the decline in oil demand was because of lower gasoline usage in the United States. Refinery closures in California and the U.S. Midwest, coupled with a July oil spill in Wisconsin, pushed retail gasoline prices above the $4 per gallon mark. Consumers react strongly to that benchmark, but with fuel efficiency improving, it may be more of an emotional reaction despite lingering unemployment and personal financial concerns. Nevertheless, with the last U.S. holiday before the Christmas season approaching, political maneuvering may be more of a reflection of public sentiment than a legitimate concern about physical shortages in the energy market. Energy markets, said one analyst, are responding to “just about everything except oil news right now.”

 

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Fear-Driving-Energy-Markets.html

By. Daniel J. Graeber of Oilprice.com

 

EUR/GBP: High Expectations of ECB Intervention Lift the Euro

Article by AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions

The Euro maintained gains versus the British pound in the previous European trading exchanges as European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said that the Euro Zone’s rescue fund is prepared to extend financial aid to struggling Spanish banks. The single currency was also lifted by comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) that President Mario Draghi would not be attending the Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend.

With hopes still up for a possible ECB intervention in the markets, the shared currency is expected to advance from the Sterling in today’s European trades. Reports emerged that Draghi would not be able to attend the upcoming Symposium, citing a heavy workload as he prepares for September 6’s key policy meeting. From this, it could be drawn that Draghi is focusing on setting the details of proposals that would be revealed at next week’s crucial meeting, passing the market’s attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for clues of another monetary easing to support the US economy. Remarks from the EU president are likewise expected to buoy the common currency, reinforcing the European officials’ willingness to help troubled member nations. Yesterday, borrowing costs at a Spanish Treasury bill auction fell sharply, a sign that investor confidence could possibly return.

In Britain, house prices fell by 0.1 percent in August, boosting speculations that the Bank of England (BOE) would increase bond buying to trigger economic growth. Given that expectations remain elevated, the EURGBP pair is projected to go up, suggesting a long position in today’s European exchanges.

For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx

 

Dollar Takes Losses Ahead of US Prelim GDP

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar took losses against most of its main currency rivals yesterday, as speculations that the Fed may soon initiate a new round of quantitative easing caused investors to shift their funds to higher yielding assets. As a result, riskier currencies like the euro and Swiss franc were able to advance throughout the day. Today, news out of the US is once again forecasted to impact the marketplace. Traders will want to pay attention the Prelim GDP, set to be released at 12:30 GMT, followed by the Pending Home Sales figure at 14:00. Any better than expected news could help the dollar recoup some of its recent losses.

Economic News

USD – US News Could Boost Dollar Today

The US dollar saw bearish movement against most of its main currency rivals yesterday, as investors continued to await news regarding possible new steps the Fed is getting ready to take to boost the US economic recovery. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar tumbled close to 70 pips during the European session to trade as low as 0.9552. A slight upward correction brought the greenback above the 0.9560 level by the end of European trading. The USD/CAD fell more than 60 pips before finding support at the 0.9851 level.

Turning to today, a batch of US news may be able to help the dollar recoup some of its recent losses. Traders will want to pay attention to the US Prelim GDP and Pending Home Sales figures. Both indicators are forecasted to show improvements in the US economy, which if true, may signal to investors that the Fed will hold off on implementing a new round of quantitative easing. In such a case, the dollar could see gains against its riskier currency rivals, including the CHF and CAD.

EUR – Euro Sees Gains amid ECB Speculation

The euro was able to advance against most of its main currency rivals during the European session yesterday, as investors shifted their funds to riskier assets amid speculations that the ECB may soon take action to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. The EUR/JPY gained more than 80 pips to trade as high as 98.82 before experiencing a slight downward correction. The pair eventually stabilized at 98.65. Against the dollar, the common-currency was able to advance more than 90 pips. After peaking at 1.2572, the EUR/USD dropped to the 1.2560 level.

Today, the euro could see significant volatility as a batch of US news is set to be released during mid-day trading. If any of the data signals growth in the US economy, the dollar may be able to rebound against the euro as a result. Later in the week, traders should not forget to pay attention to the results of the Italian ten-year bond auction, scheduled to take place on Thursday morning. If there is positive demand for Italian bonds, the euro could see bullish movement.

Gold – Gold Remains Close to Recent Highs

The price of gold was able to maintain its upward momentum during trading yesterday, as speculations regarding future monetary easing steps from both the Fed and ECB led to risk taking in the marketplace. The precious metal advanced more than $10 during European trading to trade as high $1670.90, just below its recent four-month high of $1676.64.

Today, gold traders will want to pay attention to the US Prelim GDP and Pending Home Sales figures. Any better than expected news could lessen the chances that the Fed will take steps to boost the US economy. If so, the US dollar may rebound in afternoon trading, which might cause the price of gold to fall.

Crude Oil – US Crude Oil Inventories Figure Set to Generate Volatility

Crude oil was able to recoup some of its losses from earlier in the week yesterday, as fears that an incoming tropical storm could damage US oil production sent prices higher. Crude advanced more than $1 a barrel during the first half of the day to trade as high $96.51. A minor bearish correction brought the commodity to $96.09 by the end of European trading.

Today, the US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 14:30 GMT, could lead to significant fluctuations in the price of oil. US stockpiles have steadily decreased in recent weeks, leading to speculations that demand in the world’s leading oil consuming country has gone up. If today’s figure once again comes in below expectations, it may help oil extend yesterday’s gains during afternoon trading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The weekly chart’s Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow, signaling that this pair could see a price shift in the near future. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart has formed a bullish cross, indicating that the price shift could be upward. Opening long positions may be the wise choice.

GBP/USD

While the Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has crossed over into overbought territory, most other long-term technical indicators are currently in neutral territory. Taking a wait and see approach for this pair may be the best choice, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are narrowing, signaling a possible price shift could occur in the coming days. In addition, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart appears close to forming a bullish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator. If a bullish cross does indeed form, it may time to open long positions.

USD/CHF

Most technical indicators on the daily and weekly charts show this pair range-trading, making it difficult to predict long-term price trends. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself later in the week.

The Wild Card

EUR/NZD

The Slow Stochastic on the daily chart appears close to forming a bearish cross, signaling that downward movement could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed over into overbought territory. Forex traders may want to open short positions ahead of bearish correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

Forex Daily review- 29.08.2012

Forex Daily review brought to you by REAL FOREX | www.Real-forex.com

Tracking the EUR/USD pair
Date: 29.08.2012   Time: 08:40  Rate: 1.2540
Daily chart
Last Review

The price is currently moving in an ascending tunnel, the price has breached the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level, meaning the 1.2517 price level and went back to check if it can be used as a proper support. In case the price will establish above the 1.2517 price level, we will probably see an ascending move towards the 1.2662 price level which is a 50% correction of the downtrend marked in red line. On the other hand, in case that the 1.2517 price level will not prove itself as a strong support, it is possible to assume that the price will make its way towards the Bollinger’s moving average on the 1.2400 area at first stage.
 
Current review for today
The last trading day started with a descending move during the night while the volumes were low, but it is possible to see that when the London session started, the Bulls has taken the wheel and took the price upwards. The price is still located in the middle of the ascending price channel and still in the range of the last 7 candles between the 1.2465 and the 1.2585. In addition we can see that the Moving averages are closing on each other and it looks like we are approaching a Bullish period of time. At this point it is possible to assume that the move upwards will continue towards the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the last downtrend (red line), around the 1.2662 price level as first target. On the other hand, the Moving averages are still Bearish and this uptrend is still a correction to the last downtrend (until it will pass the 61.8%) and we might see continuation of the range of the last several days, followed by a descending move towards the Bollinger’s moving average on the 1.2410 area.
  
You can see the chart below:
 
 
GBP/USD
Date: 29.08.2012   Time: 08:55  Rate: 1.5807
4 Hour chart
Last Review

It can clearly be seen that the price has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the last uptrend (blue line). After touching the 1.5752 price level which is used at this point as a support the price has retraced and at this point it is possible to assume that this is the key level. Breaching the 1.5752 support level will probably lead the price towards the 1.5700 price level which is the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the last uptrend. On the other hand, the moving averages are Bullish and the main trend is still with the direction of the north, if the 1.5752 price will hold, it will be possible to assume that the first target of the price is the last peak on the 1.5912 price level.
 
Current review for today
On the last trading day we could see that the price got attached to the Bollinger’s moving average but did not make any significant move. It is possible to see that the moving averages are getting closer and we might see a change in the trend, in addition the Bollinger bands are closing on the price, that indicates that the volatility is low and it is less likely to see significant move at this point (probably because this is August). The 1.5752 is still a key level and it is possible to assume that the price will check it again before we will see the direction of the market. Breaching the 1.5752 support level will probably lead the price towards the 1.5700 price level which is the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the last uptrend. On the other hand, the moving averages are Bullish and the main trend is still with the direction of the north, if the 1.5752 price will hold, it will be possible to assume that the first target of the price is the last peak on the 1.5912 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
 
 
 
Important announcements for today:
13.00 (GMT+1) USD – Prelim GDP
15.00 (GMT+1) USD – Pending Home Sales
 

Market Review 29.8.2012

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

As investors anxiously await news regarding possible action by both the Fed and ECB to boost the US and euro-zone economic recoveries, higher yielding assets were able to maintain their recent gains in overnight trading. The EUR/USD dropped close to 15 pips, but remained within reach of a recent seven-week high of 1.2588. Gold advanced close to $4 an ounce last night, reaching as high as 1669.67, just below a recent 4 ½ month high of $1676.64.

Main News for Today

US Prelim GDP- 12:30 GMT
• Forecasted to show slight improvements in the US economy
• If true, the dollar could see gains against the yen and euro during mid-day trading

US Pending Home Sales- 14:00 GMT
• Expected to come in at 1.1%, significantly higher than last month’s -1.4%
• If true, the dollar could reverse some of its recent losses against currencies like the EUR, CAD and CHF

US Crude Oil Inventories- 14:30 GMT
• Crude oil has been trading steadily around the $96 a barrel level in recent days
• If today’s news comes in below the forecasted -1.1M, it may be a sign of increased demand in the US, which could boost the price of oil

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

UK Home Prices Spur Stimulus Speculation

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The sterling pound dropped against the euro for the first time in three days after house prices dropped by 0.1 percent in August, registering a similar drop to the previous month. The drop in home value has spurred speculation that Bank of England will make additional bond purchases to boost economic growth in the Kingdom. However, the pound increased against the US dollar despite the report from Hometrack Ltd released yesterday. The country’s gilts advanced as reports from Spain showed the recession is worsening as Catalonia, a rich northeastern region in Spain, asked for aid from the central government, boosting the demand for the pound as safe haven.

According to a Senior Foreign Exchange Strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Lutz Karpowitz, having quantitative easing speculation burdens the currency and such speculations cannot be ruled out following worsening home prices in the country. Home prices have dropped at a time when UK gross domestic product is contracting. In a previous government report released on August 24, the GDP contracted by 0.5 percent. Further, the BOE policy makers have been forced to cut their growth forecast this month and they are open to stimulus program to spur economic growth. Governor Mervyn King has indicated that the central bank will do everything possible to spur economic growth.

The sterling pound dropped by 0.3 percent against the euro to trade at 79.38 pence per euro at the close of trading in London yesterday, when it touched its weakest level since August 7 of 79.55 pence. The UK currency advanced by 0.2 percent against the dollar to trade at $1.5827 after it had lost 0.3 percent in the previous trading sessions. The pound weakened against the yen by 0.1 percent to exchange at 124.26 yen.

The GBP has lost 1.3 percent in the past month according to market survey but UK gilts have gained as Euro zone sovereign debt crisis worsened.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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How China’s Anti-Entrepreneurial’ Economy is Failing

By MoneyMorning.com.au

We first wrote about this two years ago.

Most of the time people said we were crazy.

Some even suggested we were racist.

But we knew what we saw. We didn’t like it, and we thought it was only right that you should know about it too.

Today, it turns out we weren’t crazy or racist. Our worst fears were justified. And now, two years later, the mainstream press has finally figured it out.

What was it we got right that the mainstream got completely wrong? Read on for details below…

Last week, Bloomberg News reported:

‘Three decades after China implemented rules requiring foreign automakers to form joint ventures with domestic manufacturers to build cars in the country, the strategy appears to be failing in one of its key goals. While the policy has attracted investment and created millions of jobs, it has done little to help the Chinese build strong brands.’

That news doesn’t surprise us one bit.

For all the talk of China’s entrepreneurial flair, the reality is that China is still a centrally planned economy. It’s full of what Thomas DiLorenzo calls political entrepreneurs rather than market entrepreneurs.

In other words, rather than businessmen and women creating ideas, products, and services that they think will appeal to consumers, they create things they think will appeal to the central planners.

And in most cases, what the stiff-collared central planners want isn’t what the consumer wants.

That means you don’t get real innovative entrepreneurs. To be an entrepreneur, you need to take risks. You need to believe that what you’re doing will make you rich while at the same time satisfying a consumer need.

But you also need something else. You need to understand that failure is an occupational hazard of an entrepreneur.

Because the odds are against entrepreneurs, they have to know that if they get it wrong the first time they can bounce back and have a second go.

China is Punishing the Entrepreneurs

That’s pretty hard to do in China when the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) says:

‘SASAC appoints and removes the top executives of the supervised enterprises, and evaluates their performances through legal procedures and either grants rewards or inflicts punishments based on their performances…’

Now think back to the news story from Bloomberg. If you want to open a car yard in China, would you take a risk by selling Chinese cars no one has heard of (even the Chinese) or would you open a dealership selling BMWs, Chevrolets, and Toyotas?

If the prospects include punishment for failure, then even someone with a pea for a brain would sell cars of known brands.

The fact is, if punishment is the result of failure then it’s clear entrepreneurs won’t take risks. They’ll always take the safe option…they’ll become political entrepreneurs, toadying and grafting to the central planners…doing what pleases them rather than the consumers.

And that’s why the Chinese economy is starting to collapse. Rather than taking over the reins from the United States as a global economic powerhouse, China has become the US’s offshore manufacturing plant.

It has become – if you like – East Detroit or East Pittsburgh…but without the productivity. And like the old Detroit and Pittsburgh, it’s dying too.

China’s only comparative advantage is cheap labour. It has done nothing to improve production processes or create new ones. That explains why China’s productivity is so poor. As Ro Khanna, a former aide in the Obama Administration wrote recently:

‘What’s extraordinary is that our aggregate output remains competitive with China’s, even though the sector constitutes only 10 percent of our economy compared to nearly 40 percent of theirs. We are a global leader, in part, because our labor productivity (the value that a worker produces annually) is more than six times as large as China’s or India’s and significantly larger than Japan’s or Germany’s.’

Now, if the Chinese had taken Western know-how and manufacturing techniques and improved on them, then we could say China is entrepreneurial. But it hasn’t. It has just copied the West.

Entrepreneurial Economies Adapt and Improve

One of the reasons the US became an economic powerhouse was because it took ideas from the Old World and then adapted and improved them.

The growth of the US steel industry is a perfect example. The US didn’t overtake Germany and the UK as leading steel producers just because of cheaper labour, it overtook them because US industrialists and entrepreneurs developed new and better steel-making processes.

They could do that because they operated in a competitive market. They didn’t fear failure. They knew that if their steel-making process was better than their competitors’, they would become rich. If it wasn’t better, then they would just have to try again.

Chinese firms and entrepreneurs don’t have the same luxury of getting something wrong. If they fail, they could end up paying for it with a long stint in jail on trumped up charges…or even death. As China Entrepreneur reported in January:

‘Wu Ying, once one of the most successful business women in China, has spent five birthdays behind bars. Local officials are selling off her business holdings. She is only 30 years old, but has been sentenced to death for borrowing money outside official channels to fund her business, a common but illegal practice that even government officials take part in.’

The good news is an appeal court overturned Wu Ying’s death sentence.

The prosecutors claimed Ms Wu had engaged in fraud by raising money from investors and not paying them back. Ms Wu claimed that the money was a loan to fund her business.

We don’t know if it was fraud or just a bad investment. But either way, it’s a clear message: do things through the official government channels…or you may die!

Remember, the SASAC openly admits it ‘inflicts punishments’ for failure.

Maybe that message will deter fraudsters, but it doesn’t do much to encourage entrepreneurs to borrow or raise capital to fund a business. If the business fails and they can’t pay back the investment, will they face the death penalty too?

China’s Crumbling Economy

The Western mainstream press and mainstream analysts love sucking up to China’s rulers. They love praising it…probably because it’s Australia’s biggest trading partner and they don’t want to offend them.

But it’s also because it conforms to their dreams of a centrally planned economy. They’re praying it works so they can push for the same system in the West.

But the bottom line is this: China remains what it has been for the past 60 years: a brutal dictatorship where you can make a fortune if you shake the right hands. But get on the wrong side of the authorities, and the punishment can be severe.

Because of this the Chinese economic miracle is crumbling. Greg Canavan has written about this recently, including detail on how investors can profit from China’s collapse. And the fallout out for Australia, which has its colours pegged to the Chinese mast, will be just as bad.

Already, Aussie miners have put billions of dollars-worth of projects on hold as Chinese demand slows. We’ll see how the Australian econom copes without the influx of Chinese dollars.

But don’t worry, Reserve Bank of Australia governor, Glenn Stevens sees a silver lining around the dark cloud. Here’s what he told the House of Representatives economics committee last week:

‘After that the rate of resource investment is likely to decline, while the export shipments of the resources themselves will pick up. By then we might expect that some other sectors that have been weak of late, like residential and non-residential construction, might be starting to pick up.’

Oh brother, not that old chestnut. Clearly economic illiteracy reaches to the very top in Australia. More on that tomorrow.

Cheers,
Kris
.

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How China’s Anti-Entrepreneurial’ Economy is Failing

Smartphone, Dumb Patents

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Google’s new Motorola unit had great ambitions to serve customers and keep dazzling us with ever more spectacular things that enhance our lives. After all, the smartphone is easily the greatest consumer innovation of our time, and maybe of all time.

It accomplishes amazing feats in a tiny package and represents a greater achievement of the human mind than anything accomplished by government ever.

The Wonder of Innovation

The smartphone is really misnamed in so many ways. Depending on apps and extensions, it provides maps and global positioning, checks your blood pressure, becomes a musical instrument, and allows you to buy and sell stocks from the middle of nowhere, to enjoy video chats with people from all over the world, to assemble friends and networks, and to keep up with and send messages to anyone.

It allows me to make my own movie on the fly and broadcast it out to billions in minutes. I can record a song. I can immediately make anything happening in front of me become a live stream to the whole world, and do this without paying any expensive fees.

I can conduct an interview and archive it on my own channel, which I can create in a few seconds. Or, of course, I can play thousands of games.

It’s a calculator, an email checker, a weather updater, a camera, a Web browser, a news reader, a complete stereo system, a book reader, a translator, a scanner, and a miniature everything all in a thing the size of a deck of cards half as thick.

The innovations pour into this tiny miracle by the day, by the hour, even. And it’s only begun: The app economy holds out the promise of astonishing innovation down the road.

I recall many times suggesting to people that they replace their old cell phone (which itself is a great gizmo, given that only the richest of the rich could afford such a thing in the 1980s) with a smartphone.

They demurred and refused and finally gave in, and only then realized what they’d been missing. It’s a revelation, a childhood dream come true.

Big Tech Companies Ready to Fight

So what does Google plan to do with its new Motorola acquisition? Serve up some more wonderfulness to a public ready to be amazed again? Not yet. Its first step was to file a massive lawsuit against iPhone. And why? You guessed it: patent infringement. Google claims that Apple has stolen some of Motorola’s technology.

Apple has systematically refused to enter into any reasonable licensing deals, which is exactly the same behavior that Samsung faced before. And Google is not stupid.

The whole world was watching that lawsuit that Apple filed against Samsung and saw how a tired, confused, and technologically dumbfounded jury, in a courtroom 10 miles from Apple’s headquarters, agreed to a $1 billion-plus judgment against Samsung.

Google won’t just take this lying down. It decided to act first, rather than risk that kind of aggressive attack. It is asking the International Trade Commission to start blocking all imports of iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touch.

Crazy, right? Does Google hate our guts that it would seek such a result? After all these years of desperately serving the Web-surfing world, giving us amazing tools for free and revolutionizing the world of advertising, has it now decided to spread misery to the public?

Nope, it’s all about defending itself against aggressive attack. What the jury did in the case of Apple v. Samsung has set off a deadly arms race.

An industry that became thrilling and gigantic, and has brought unprecedented progress, is now entering a dangerous period in which dogs really do eat dogs, where one company’s win is another’s loss, and where the welfare of the consumer has to be put on hold for the battle of the titans.

The problem comes down to one word: patent.

The Patent War Will Hurt Consumers

In the 1980s, patents were extended to cover software. This was the beginning of what would become a catastrophic regulatory thicket that would ensnare every producer and where the lawyers would make out like bandits no matter who won.

When patents first came along in history, they were monopoly privilege granted by the crown in exchange for political subservience. This was the age of mercantilism, and it gradually led to the age of capitalism, in which trade barriers, taxes, and regulations fell.

The slogan was laissez faire, or leave commerce alone to manage itself. Government can’t improve on the results of the market process.

The patent today is a holdover from the pre-capitalist age. It was not very controversial before the digital age, because economic progress was relatively slow and patents expire and because the patents didn’t apply to most of the important consumer products we use every day.

But the problem with them has always been the same: By granting a right of exclusive production to one firm, patents attack the competitive process as its very root.

The competitive process takes place over several phases, which constantly overlap. There is innovation (always an extension of what came before). Then with innovation can come a period of profitability.

This profitability attracts other producers to the industry who innovate further and try to improve the good or service. The initial producer then has to scramble to maintain market share, and it does so through further innovation and price cuts.

Note that the whole system is based on the ability to learn from others. Good companies emulate the successes of others, avoid their mistakes, and improve what exists at the margin. That’s the essence of economic progress. This is how competition results in the biggest conceivable boon for consumers.

As Steve Jobs said in 1994, “We have always been shameless about stealing great ideas.” So it has been for every great painter, poet, and entrepreneur. They build on what came before. I take issue only with the use of his word “steal.”

When you copy an idea, there is not a thief and a victim, but two ideas. This idea-copying process extends to infinity.

Who in the business world likes the idea of competition? The startups like it. The innovators like it. Young companies seeking to change the world like it. Competition gives them an opportunity to make a difference and build wonderful things. But older companies do not like it. Once they get on top, they would much rather rest on their laurels.

Patents are Governments Picking Winners and Losers

In a free market, they cannot rest. But with patents, they can sue. They can use the tools of government to clobber their competition. If it works, they can receive what amounts to a bailout.

To win a patent suit against the competition is no different from getting a tariff erected against imports, having your insurance company get a huge cash infusion from the Department of the Treasury, or a labor union getting low-price workers blocked from entering the market.

The real story of Apple’s attack on Samsung is told in the numbers. Apple has been dramatically losing market share to the competition. That’s no surprise: The first to market experiences a period of profitability above the average rate of return.

But then others emulate and improve at the margin. Prices fall, service improves, and great things happen for everyone except the former industry leader.

Patents are an occasion of sin. They tempt businesses to go to government to smash their competition, instead of turning to more-innovative strategies to attract consumers. This is why industries without patents are so vibrant.

Patents don’t apply to fashion, to recipes of all your favorite meals, to plays in sports, and to most things we use and love.

I can hold up my Wal-Mart navy blazer and one from Burberry, and from a distance of three feet, you couldn’t tell much difference. But both manage to exist side by side in peace, and everyone wins. But the jury in the Apple v. Samsung case looked at the two phones and said, “Oh, these are really too similar, so one has to go!”

Patents established government-protected monopolies. Ironically, other divisions of government claim to intervene in markets to bust up monopolies and divide up market share.

Either way, the government is doing central planning by picking winners and losers in the marketplace, rather than letting the competitive process play itself out.

What happened to Apple really amounts to a government-sponsored bailout, no different from that won by AIG in 2008. But do we recognize it as such? Probably not, because the whole racket is couched in the language of a law that few people understand or question.

Jeffrey Tucker
Contributing Writer, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article first appeared in Laissez Faire Today

From the Archives…

Read This Gold Price Warning Before You Buy Another Stock
24-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Stocks Are Up – Is it a Good Time to Buy?
23-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

It’s About Freedom of Speech: What if We Couldn’t Write to You Anymore?
22-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Things Are Looking Up for Gold
21-08-2012 – Bengt Saelensminde

The Good News About Europe’s Missing Pre-nup
20-08-2012 – Nick Hubble


Smartphone, Dumb Patents

To QE? Or Not to QE? Why it Won’t Matter to the Long Term Investor

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Every year around this time, the world’s most powerful market movers gather in a US holiday resort and make their plans for the global economy.

I’m not talking about some conspiracy-theory-laden offshoot of the Bilderberg Group here. I’m talking about the annual central bankers’ shindig in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

This Friday, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will be delivering his big speech.

Plenty of investors are holding their breath, hoping he’ll make some hint at injecting a load of new money into the US economy.

But I think they’re in for a big disappointment…

The Fed Needs to Keep its QE At the Ready

 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last met to discuss the state of the US economy at the start of this month. The minutes from that meeting came out last week, and got everyone very excited. That’s because the FOMC suggested that it might be ready to do more “fairly soon” unless the US economy improved.

By ‘more’, everyone assumes they mean more money printing. So they’re hoping that this Friday, Fed chief Ben Bernanke might give a hint about just how much more printing they plan to do.

But there are many reasons why anyone betting on a third batch of quantitative easing (QE3) from the Fed this year might be disappointed.

There’s Europe, for starters. Plenty of tripwires lie ahead of the eurozone in the next month or so. There’s the German constitutional court’s decision on whether or not the eurozone’s big bail-out mechanism is legal or not. And there’s the usual to-ing and fro-ing over Greece’s financial situation.

Any nasty surprises on these fronts could send the markets into a spasm of panic. So it strikes me that the Fed will probably want to keep its powder dry, in case of emergencies.

Also, the Fed will want to keep the pressure up on Europe. If the European Central Bank (ECB) follows through on its promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, more QE in the US may be unnecessary.

But if the US prints more money, it takes some of the pressure off the Europeans to get their act together.

The US Stock Market Doesn’t Justify QE3

However, the main reason I don’t think we’ll see a full-blown QE3 is because the US stock market is in remarkably good health. Previous bouts of QE have been announced at points where investors have been screaming for the Fed to “just do something!” That’s not the case now. The S&P 500 recently hit a four-year high.

It also doesn’t help that food prices and oil price inflation are back on the radar. QE is meant to be an emergency measure, to prevent the economy from sliding into deflation. With neither deflation nor a stock market collapse panicking investors, it’ll be hard to justify any extreme action.

In other words, the stage is being set for a big disappointment. When Bernanke speaks at Jackson Hole at the end of this week, people will read what they want into his speech. But if the next Fed meeting in September delivers little more than a commitment to “keep interest rates low”, then US markets could take a tumble.

The good news is, if you are a genuine long-term investor, you don’t have to fret too much about what’s going to happen with QE.

We’ve said it before a number of times, but it bears repeating. When it comes to the long-term – which is what we all claim to be investing for – the key to success is to buy stocks when they represent good value.

History shows that if you buy a market when it’s at a historically cheap level, you’ll make a decent return if you hold for the long term (five years or more). If you buy a market when it’s already expensive, then yes, it might get more expensive. But you don’t have much room for error. And you have to make sure that you get out before everyone else realises that it’s expensive, or you’ll lose money when the bubble bursts.

The point is that stocks tend to get cheap when the outlook is gloomy. There’s an argument to be made that the US has better prospects than many developed economies. The US housing market has suffered a proper crash. Its banks are closer to having healthy balance sheets than most other developed nations. And it has the wild card of shale oil and gas up its sleeve.

But it’s in the price. The S&P 500 trades on a CAPE (cyclically-adjusted p/e ratio – which smooths out earnings over ten years) of around 22. That compares to the long-run average of around 16. So if a strong recovery doesn’t materialise, there’s a lot of room for disappointment.

Both European and Japanese markets, on the other hand, are cheap by historical standards, based on the CAPE. So they are pricing in a lot of misery. If things get even a little less worse, then their markets will benefit.

John Stepek

Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek (UK)

From the Archives…

Read This Gold Price Warning Before You Buy Another Stock
24-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Stocks Are Up – Is it a Good Time to Buy?
23-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

It’s About Freedom of Speech: What if We Couldn’t Write to You Anymore?
22-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Things Are Looking Up for Gold
21-08-2012 – Bengt Saelensminde

The Good News About Europe’s Missing Pre-nup
20-08-2012 – Nick Hubble


To QE? Or Not to QE? Why it Won’t Matter to the Long Term Investor

EURUSD fails to break below channel support

EURUSD fails to break below the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, and rebounds from 1.2465, suggesting that a cycle bottom is being formed. Initial resistance is at 1.2589, a break above this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.2241 has resumed, then further rise towards 1.2700 area could be seen. Support remains at the lower line of the channel, only a clear break below the channel support could signal completion of the uptrend, then deeper decline to 1.2400 area could be expected.

eurusd

Daily Forex Forecast