Month: August 2012

The bullish Gartley pattern is a complex chart pattern that identifies points of downward price retracement as a way of identifying a possible upward price reversal point. The bullish Gartley pattern was first described by M. Gartley in 1935. The bullish Gartley pattern is a bullish reversal chart pattern.

The bullish Gartley pattern resembles a W that has been turned upside down. A correctly traced pattern should be able to show an XABCD pattern as shown above. The pattern is traced as follows:

• It starts with a bullish move from point X to a point A,

• There is a short retracement from point A to point B

• The uptrend resumes again to point C. Point C is not usually on the same level as point A).

• There is a downward move from point C to point D. This completes the bullish Gartley.

If a trader can correctly trace the bullish Gartley pattern on the charts, he can cash in on the full reversal that is sure to occur.

Rules for Identifying the Bullish Gartley Pattern

There are rules that must be followed in order to identify a true bullish Gartley pattern, as it is very easy to get caught out by many fake outs or fake patterns that resemble a bullish Gartley but which are really not a true bullish Gartley pattern.

1. The price move that is represented by the AB line must be a 61.8% retracement of the price movement represented by the XA line. The dotted line XB should therefore show the 61.8% reading (please refer to the diagram above).

2. The next move following AB is the resumption of the uptrend. This is represented by the line BC. The BC price movement should be an upward retracement of between 61.8% and 78.6% from the price movement AB. In other words, point C must be below point A on a horizontal plane. If point C is at the same horizontal plane as point A or even above point A, the chart pattern rule for the bullish Gartley is invalidated.

3. Next in line is the downward price retracement from point C, represented by the line CD. CD must be 127% to 161.8% retracement from line BC.
   This means that point D MUST be below point B, but remain above or at the same horizontal plane as point X.

It is only when the rules above have been clearly obeyed that a true bullish Gartley pattern has formed and we can truly say that the trader has a
good basis for going long at point D.

(Bullish
Gartley on a Gold daily chart)

Traders should be very alert to pattern failures. It is best to practice the identification of this pattern on a demo account before attempting it
on a live account.

There is a customized indicator which can be used to identify the bullish Gartley pattern when it occurs. This can be obtained on request from
the vendor.

Forex Trading and technical analysis : www.taforex.com.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Swiss National Bank’s foreign currency reserves swelled in July by 11.3 percent to reach a record high of 406.5 billion Swiss Francs according to a statement in the Swiss National Bank website. This pushed the foreign currency reserve to 71 percent of the country’s GDP. The increase was largely due to currency purchases made to defend the minimum exchange rate set by the central bank to shield against the weakening euro. Thomas Jordan, the SNB President has indicated in the past that the central bank will do everything possible including buying unlimited amount of foreign currencies to enforce the 1.20 Franc per euro ceiling.

According to Maxime Botteron, who is an Economist in Zurich at Credit Suisse Group, the pace of intervention taken by the SNB can be maintained for a long time as the bank is increasing liquidity in the market by purchasing foreign currency. The only impediment to this would be in situation where the euro collapses. However, such efforts might be limited by inflation but this is not a problem facing the SNB for now.

The franc had strengthened against the euro as investors sought safe haven, forcing the SNB to introduce the cap in September 2011. Since then, the foreign reserve has increased by 44 percent. After the SNB press statement, the Franc weakened against the euro, trading at 1.2015 at mid day trading in Zurich yesterday. The currency has been trading between 1.20 and 1.24 since the cap was introduced with a single instance of breach. With these purchases, the Swiss National Bank increases the liquidity available to financial institutions and consumers hence increasing the risk of price hike in the market. The SNB website also indicated that consumer prices in the country fell in July, making it the tenth straight monthly decline.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday 8 August 2012, 06:45 EDT

THE U.S. DOLLAR gold price hovered just below $1610 an ounce for most of Wednesday morning’s trading in London – in line with last Friday’s close – while stocks and commodities ticked lower and US Treasuries gained.

The silver price dipped below $28 an ounce, although like gold, silver remains slightly above where it ended last week.

“The gold price has been range trading for the past couple of months,” says Commerzbank senior technical analyst Axel Rudolph, noting that the upper end of the range “is seen at the June $1641 peak”.

“There is a lack of momentum in the market,” adds one dealer in Hong Kong.

“Prices are unlikely to break above $1620 but falling below $1570 is also difficult. Many traders are more interested in watching the Olympics than trading.”

In India, which is experiencing a drier than usual monsoon, physical gold dealers continue to report subdued demand in what is traditionally the world’s biggest gold buying nation.

“People will prefer to stay in cash than buy gold due to the drought,” says Haresh Acharya, head of bullion desk at Parker Bullion in Ahmedabad.

“The market is slow, but there could be buying later this month,” adds Ashok Jain at Mumbai gold wholesaler Chenaji Narsinghji.

“Gold is still looking promising in the second half [of 2012],” reckons Shanghai CIFCO Futures analyst Li Ning.

“The peak physical consumption season [is] on the horizon and more quantitative easing from the US Fed [is] still on the cards.”

Here in London, the Bank of England published its quarterly Inflation Report Wednesday, cutting its forecast for UK economic growth to near zero for 2012.

“The underlying picture is that output has been at best broadly flat over the past two years, and has continually disappointed expectations of a recovery,” said Bank governor Mervyn King.

“Many of the conditions necessary for a recovery are [however] in place, and the [Monetary Policy Committee] will continue to do all it can to bring about that recovery.”

“Central banks,” King added during his press conference, “have done a massive amount. This has been an extraordinary period of monetary stimulus never seen before and we’ve still got the foot to the floor.”

“We expect the main message from the Inflation Report to be that more easing is coming,” said Nomura economist Philip Rush, speaking ahead of the report’s publication.

“This message would be communicated by forecasting inflation to be more likely than not to be well below target through the medium term.”

In the event, King said that “inflation is likely to fall further from its current level to be around or a little below target for much of the forecast period”.

The Sterling gold price fell slightly following the publication of the report, dropping below £1030 per ounce as the Pound rallied against the Dollar, though gold in Sterling remained above where it closed last week.

London-headquartered bank Standard Chartered meantime may need to pay up to $700 million as a result of allegations made by the New York State Department of Financial Services that it breached regulations by disguising transactions with Iran, newswire Bloomberg reports.

Standard Chartered has rejected the allegations and says it intends to contest them.

“Political intervention may be needed over this,” says one senior City of London figure quoted by the Financial Times.

“This is an attack,” said another.

“If we don’t stand up to it, it could be catastrophic for London’s financial standing. There has to be some stage where [the British government] says something in defense of the banks.”

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

By The Sizemore Letter

As I write this article, China has a slight lead on the United States in Olympic gold, 34-30, but anything can happen over the next week.

But whichever country leaves London with the bigger stash of medals, Visa (NYSE:$V) will be accepted in either of them.

In fact, Visa is accepted in virtually every country represented in the 2012 Summer Games.

Visa has a long history with the Olympics. The company is a major sponsor this year, just as it has been for 26 years now. It makes sense; a company with one of the most global brands in history making itself seen as a patron of the ultimate global sporting event.

It is Visa’s global reach that makes it one of the most attractive growth stocks for the next decade. As I noted in a recent article, Visa benefits from two overlapping macro trends.

First, irrespective of what happens in the U.S. economy or how the eurozone crisis unfolds, incomes are rising in emerging markets. Visa is projected to get more than half of its revenues from outside the United States by 2015, and most of this will come from emerging-market card-swiping.

The second theme is the continued growth of electronic payments at the expense of cash and checks; call it the “death of cash.” This is a trend that still is playing out in the United States, where roughly 40% of all transactions still are done with cash or check, but the transformation is more obvious in emerging markets. When I visit my wife’s family in South America, we still have to remember to carry cash. I don’t think this will be true in another five years.

Card acceptance is a virtuous cycle; the more consumers request to pay with plastic, the more retailers feel obligated to oblige. At the same time, the more retailers who accept plastic, the more convenient it becomes for consumers to leave their cash at home.

Plus, it’s safer to pay with plastic. The occasional story of a data breach, cardholders have very little risk of theft, as they are not liable for fraudulent purchases. Alas, there is no one to reimburse you if a thief steals a roll of cash.

And given that you are reading this article online, we should not forget the role that Internet commerce plays. Though still small when compared to the broader brick-and-mortar retail economy, e-commerce is becoming a larger piece of the pie every year. Traditional credit and debit card companies benefit from this, as do relatively new upstarts like eBay’s (NASDAQ:$EBAY) PayPal.

So, there you have it — more shopping by emerging-market consumers and a higher percentage of existing shopping switching to plastic. An investment thesis in fewer than 20 words.

Right now, Visa and rival MasterCard (NYSE:$MA) are a little pricey at 18 and 16 times forward earnings, respectively. So you might want to wait for a dip before buying. But if I had to choose one stock to hold for the next 10 years, Visa would be near the top of my list — even at current prices.

Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long Visa.  This article first appeared on InvestorPlace.

Related posts:

• Visa, MasterCard Still Charging Forward
• Visa and MasterCard: Underlying Macro Trends Still in Place

Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.

Source: ForexYard

The euro remained bullish for most of the European session yesterday, as investor hopes that the European Central Bank will soon step in to lower borrowing costs in Italy and Spain helped boost risk appetite. Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to the results of a German ten-year bond auction. If demand for German bonds remains high, investor confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery may increase, giving the euro another opportunity to gain against its main currency rivals. That being said, poor demand for German bonds may weigh down on the euro, causing it to give up some of its recent gains.

Economic News

USD – Dollar May Extend Losses if Risk Taking Persists

The US dollar extended its recent bearish trend yesterday, as the combination of Australian and euro-zone news led to an increase in risk taking among investors. The AUD/USD hit a four-month high at 1.0602 during early morning trading, after the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%. The pair saw slight downward movement later in the day before stabilizing at the 1.0590 level. Against the euro, the dollar stayed near a recent one-month low for much of the day, as investor hopes that the ECB will soon take action to lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs boosted confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery.

Today, a lack of significant US news means that dollar traders will want to pay attention to announcements out of the euro-zone which could impact risk appetite. Any signs that the ECB is closer to taking action to boost the economic recovery in the region may lead to additional risk taking, which could in turn weigh down on the greenback. That being said, analysts continue to warn traders that the euro-zone crisis is far from over, and any indication that the ECB is not able to lower EU borrowing costs could cause the dollar to reverse its current downward trend.

EUR – German Bond Auction Could Lead to Further EUR Gains

The euro was able to hang onto most of its recent gains yesterday, as signs that ECB was getting ready to move in to lower borrowing costs in Italy and Spain helped boost risk appetite. The EUR/JPY gained close to 50 pips during early morning trading, and eventually peaked at 97.42 before staging a mild downward correction later in the day. Against the Australian dollar, the euro traded steadily at the 1.1720 level for much of the day. Since the end of last week, the EUR/AUD has gained well over 100 pips.

Today, the euro may be able to extend its recent upward trend following the ten-year German bond auction. If demand for German bonds remains high, confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery could go up and help the euro remain bullish. At the same time, traders will want to remember that ECB plans to boost euro-zone economies have yet to be announced, and analysts continue to warn that if the plans fall short of investor expectations, the euro could quickly reverse its upward momentum.

Gold – Bearish Dollar Helps Boost Gold Prices

The price of gold continued to move up throughout European trading yesterday, as a weakened dollar led to increased demand among investors. Typically, gold prices go up when the dollar is weak, as it makes the precious metal more affordable for international buyers. Gold peaked at $1616.23 an ounce during mid-day trading, before staging a very slight downward correction.

Today, gold may be able to extend its recent gains if the USD maintains its current downward trend. At the same time, the euro-zone economic recovery remains extremely fragile. Any disappointing news out of the region may result in risk-aversion which could weigh down on the price of gold.

Crude Oil – Middle East Tensions Boost Oil Prices

The price of crude oil increased further during European trading yesterday, as tensions in the Middle East led to supply side worries among investors. Furthermore, an increase in risk taking in the marketplace caused investors to shift their funds to commodities like oil. Crude advanced close to $1 a barrel, reaching as high as $92.60 during mid-day trading.

Today, in addition to any developments in the Middle East, traders will also want to pay attention to the US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 14:30 GMT. Oil saw significant gains last week after the indicator signaled to investors that demand in the US has gone up. Should today’s news once again come in below forecasts, crude may extend its upward momentum.

Technical News

EUR/USD

While the daily chart’s Williams Percent Range is in overbought territory, indicating that downward movement could occur, most other technical indicators signal this pair is in neutral territory. Taking a wait and see approach may be the best option, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

GBP/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are narrowing, indicating that this pair could see a price shift in the near future. The MACD/OsMA on the same chart has formed a bearish cross, signaling that the price shift could be downward. Traders may want to open short positions for this pair.

USD/JPY

The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is approaching the oversold zone, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the coming days. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart is close to forming a bullish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on these two indicators, as they may signal an impending bullish correction in the coming days.

USD/CHF

The daily chart’s Williams Percent Range has dropped into oversold territory, signaling possible upward movement in the near future. That being said, most other technical indicators show this pair range trading. Taking a wait and see approach may be the best option at this time.

The Wild Card

EUR/NOK

The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has crossed over into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see upward movement in the near future. Additionally, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart has formed a bullish cross. Forex traders may want to open long positions ahead of a possible bullish correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Job opening in the United States increased to four-year high in June, signaling a that employment in the world’s largest economy may accelerate in the third and fourth quarter of the year. The number of available job positions waiting to be filled climbed to 1.76 million from 105,000, registering the biggest number since July 2008 according to a report from Labor Department released yesterday. The rising need for employees expressed by employers indicates an improvement in company sales, which is a stable ground for increased hiring in the second half of the year. Increased hiring will result to higher consumer spending. According to a Labor Department report last week, payrolls rose in July, more than it had been forecasted while the unemployment in the country rose to five-month high.

Henry Mo, who is a Senior Economist in New York at Credit Suisse, the US economy is growing steadily hence the growing labor demand in the market.  He suggested that the economy will grow better when employers convert their intentions to buy into action, which will boost the economy in the second half. The US currency fell against most peers as the risk appetite grew in the market with Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rising higher for the third day straight. The index rose 0.7 percent t0 1,403.41 just before noon in New York yesterday.

The risk appetite in the market has been spurred by positive reports from Australian where the Reserve Bank of Australia held its interest rates at 3.5 percent. Further, the Swiss National Bank indicated that its foreign reserve has grown in July as policy makers took new steps to enforce the euro cap.

The Job Openings report released yesterday shed some light on how the monthly employment figures will look like this month. The report indicated that there were more openings in leisure and hospitality industry such as hotels and restaurants, but manufacturing and health services also increased steadily.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Source: ForexYard

The euro took slight losses in overnight trading against the US dollar, but remained near a one-month high reached earlier in the week. After hitting a four-month high at 1.0602 against the USD yesterday, the aussie also slipped last night and is currently trading at 1.0560. With the economic calendar particularly light this week, analysts are forecasting riskier currencies to remain close to their current levels, as there are still expectations that the ECB will announce plans to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy.

Main News for Today

German 10-Year Bond Auction
• Should demand for German bonds remain high, riskier currencies like the euro could extend their recent bullish trend during the afternoon session

US Crude Oil Inventories- 14:30 GMT
• Last week, crude oil received a significant boost after the inventories figure signaled an increase in demand in the US
• If today’s news comes in below the forecasted -0.6M, oil could see gains during afternoon trading

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Canadian dollar was pushed by the rising risk appetite spurred by stocks and crude oil rising prices. The loonie increased to the highest since May against the US dollar as the Canadian business spending advanced more than the market had predicted. Further, the loonie increased as Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said that the central bank should take an “open-ended” quantitative easing. The gain also came as Angela Merkel Government indicated that it would support the European Central Bank decision to embark on a bond-buying program as a measure to curb the rising borrowing cost in major economies in the 17-nation trading bloc.

Talking about the rising investor sentiments, Joe Manimbo who is a Market Analyst at Western Union Co. in Washington said that it has been boosted strong showing in the US economy and speculations that the ECB will soon make a move to quell the debt crisis in euro zone. The Canadian currency also rose as government bonds fell for the second day. The 10-year yield went up by 0.09 percentage point to settle at 1.84 percent. The implied volatility on the dollar-loonie pair rose to 6.36 after it had declined to 6.22 percent on July 20, which is the lowest level it has been since 2007.

According to Camilla Sutton, who is the Chief Currency Strategist in Toronto at the Bank of Nova Scotia said that the announcement by the ECB President Mario Draghi last week has pushed volatility lower. She added that when the risk is a low as it is now, the market is on a risk-on mood and commodity related currencies tend to strengthen against major peers.

The Canadian dollar strengthened by 0.3 percent against the greenback at the close of trading in Toronto yesterday to close the day at 99.70 US cents; it had earlier touched its strongest since May 11 during intraday trading of 99.63 cents.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By Central Bank News