Month: August 2012

Hear tips on technical indicators and about how to improve your trading with Kennedy’s educational service.

By Elliott Wave International

There’s no shortage of actionable trading information out there, for every kind of trading style — countless newsletters, books, and websites to choose from.

But how do you know when to apply this information to your trades?

If you’re an experienced trader, you know that the answer to this “million dollar question” is elusive indeed.

Recently I had the pleasure of sitting down with EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy to find out how he empowers aspiring traders to make the best of their technical tools with his new educational service, Elliott Wave Junctures. Here’s a glimpse into what subscribers can learn:

What kinds of indicators do you use in your analysis, and how do you suggest that a new student approach non-EW tools?

I use the standard. I’d say that RSI would be my number one pick. Number two would be MACD and the MACD-histogram. I’m a big fan of Japanese Candlestick analysis. The Wave Principle is my canvas, and these other ancillary tools are my paints and my brushes.

I always will be an Elliottician, but these other technical tools have merit and are indeed worthwhile: they allow me to build a case, build a more confident reason for making a forecast and for taking a trade; making a trading decision

Please tell us a little about how you incorporate these ancillary tools in Elliott Wave Junctures.

The primary purpose of my new service is educational. I am able to share my knowledge; and the scope is not limited to teaching subscribers the Wave Principle. I’m able to discuss its application, in a real-time market environment, and to cover other forms of technical analysis. I get to teach different technical indicators and oscillators as well as some of the proprietary techniques that I’ve developed myself over the years.

The focus is on real-time, unfolding events; sometimes historical, but I keep it educational, relevant and timely. It’s not limited only to Elliott. It’s all-encompassing of the entire body of knowledge in technical analysis.

The primary focus is not just instruction, but application.

What sets your new Elliott Wave Junctures service apart from the other subscriptions?

Application is very important to me. It’s one thing if someone shows me a blank price chart, and then shows me the same chart, labeled “before-and-after,” that’s very static; it’s very black-and-white. It may be a good example of how to apply the Wave Principle, but there’s nothing exciting about it.

If I’m going to be able to empower my subscribers, which is what I’m passionate about, I want to teach them to do it for themselves. To do that, I need to show how the process unfolds; dynamic, proactive, absolutely.

Get 6 FREE Lessons from Jeffrey Kennedy — Including 4 From His Elliott Wave Junctures Service Jeffrey Kennedy shares his 20 years of wisdom in analysis and trading — to help you decide when to act — in a new FREE report, 6 Lessons to Help You Find Trading Opportunities in Any Market. This report includes 6 different lessons that you can apply to your charts immediately. Learn how to spot and act on trading opportunities in the markets you follow. Get Your Free Trading Lessons Now >>

David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com

In recent updates I have been projecting a series of ABCDE waves to take the Bull market to post March 2009 highs in the 1425-1445 ranges.  The recent pullback was expected as what I was calling a “D wave” pullback, with an E wave to come.  These final 5^th waves or E waves can be extension waves or relatively benign, hence causing difficulty in forecasting the upper ranges.

In the case of the SP 500 index, we have had a strong rally from the 1267 lows in early June to 1409 highs so far (The C wave highs) and recently a pullback into the 1390’s (The D wave). This next leg up should carry the market indices towards the 1440 2008 interim highs which begat the last 5 wave down leg of the Bear cycle that ended at 666 on the SP 500.  A case of down the mountain and up the mountain if you will since the 2008 highs to current pricing conditions at 1404.

Once this E wave completes in the 1425-1445 ranges (With an outside shot at an extension blast to 1495) we should expect a fairly significant correction of the entire move from March of 2009.  This final rally leg could top anytime between Aug 13^th and August 22^nd as I last updated, with potential to spill over into early September.

A close over 1409 will confirm the “E wave” has begun in earnest and you may want to buckle up, as it could be the final blast before some rains begin to pour in the fall.

If you’d like to be up to date on the daily and weekly views of the SP 500 and GOLD and Silver, get a discount at www.markettrendforecast.com or sign up for our free weekly reports

David Banister- www.markettrendforecast.com

Source: ForexYard

The euro saw upward movement against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, as hopes that the European Central Bank would move in to help debt stricken countries in the region boosted risk appetite in the marketplace. That being said, analysts were quick to warn that disagreements among euro-zone leaders about how to best combat the region’s debt crisis could limit the common-currency’s gains. Today, traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant news events, including a German economic sentiment figure, and retail sales data out of the US. Any better than expected results could lead to risk taking and help the euro extend yesterday’s gains.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Takes Losses amid Increase in Risk Taking

The dollar fell during European trading yesterday, as an increase in risk taking caused investors to abandon safe-haven currencies. Against the Swiss franc, the greenback dropped more than 60 pips to reach as low as 0.9716 during the mid-day session. The GBP/USD shot up some 55 pips to peak at 1.5711, before staging a slight downward correction and stabilizing at the 1.5700 level. One notable exception to the dollar’s bearish trend was against the JPY. After falling during Asian trading, the USD/JPY was able to rebound during the mid-day session to trade as high as 78.36.

Turning to today, dollar traders will want to note the results of the US Core Retail Sale, Retail Sales and PPI figures, all set to be released at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are forecasting all three indicators to come in well above their previous figures, which if true, could lead to risk taking in the marketplace and additional losses for the safe-haven greenback. That being said, traders will also want to pay attention to a batch of euro-zone news set to be released during morning trading. If any of the news indicates a further slowdown in the euro-zone economic recovery, the dollar could climb against its riskier currency rivals.

EUR – German Data Could Lead to EUR Volatility Today

Risk taking in the marketplace led to euro gains yesterday, even as analysts continued to warn investors that disagreements among euro-zone leaders could limit any bullish movement by the common-currency. The EUR/USD advanced close to 100 pips over the course of the day to reach as high as 1.2372. Against the yen, the euro moved up close to 90 pips before peaking at 96.89. A very mild downward correction brought the EUR/JPY to the 96.75 level toward the end of European trading.

Today, in addition to any announcements from the ECB regarding plans to lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs, euro traders will also want to pay attention to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled to be released at 09:00 GMT. Last week, the euro saw a significant downward correction following the release of disappointing German data. With today’s news forecasted to come in at -19.2, which would indicate pessimism in the economic outlook for Germany, the euro could potentially reverse yesterday’s gains during mid-day trading.

Gold – Gold Maintains Earlier Gains

Despite a downward correction during Asian trading yesterday, gold was largely able to maintain last Friday’s gains as risk taking among investors boosted commodities and precious metals throughout the day. Gold spent much of the day range trading, bouncing back and forth between $1625 and ounce and $1619. By the end of the European session, prices were stable at the $1620 level.

Today, gold prices could see considerably more volatility as a batch of significant euro-zone and US data is set to be released. Traders will want to pay particular attention to the news out of the EU. Should any of it come in below the forecasted levels, investors may revert to safe-haven assets which could result in the price of gold falling.

Crude Oil – Oil Tumbles during Evening Trading

After steadily gaining throughout the European session due to increased tensions in the Middle East, the price of crude oil tumbled during evening trading yesterday. Crude advanced more than $1 a barrel to peak at $94.11 before staging a downward correction to trade as low as $92.09.

Today, the price of oil is forecasted to once again see heavy volatility, as a batch of significant US data is set to be released. If any of the indicators come in above expectations, risk taking could help oil recoup some of yesterday’s losses. Furthermore, any positive US data could signal to investors that demand in the world’s leading oil consuming country could go up, which may also help oil turn bullish.

Technical News

EUR/USD

A bullish cross appears to be forming on the weekly chart’s MACD/OsMA, indicating that upward movement could occur in the coming days. That being said, most other technical indicators show this pair range trading, making a definitive trend hard to predict. Taking a wait and see approach may be the best choice at this time.

GBP/USD

Most long term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that a definitive trend is hard to predict at this time. Taking a wait and see approach may be the best option, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are narrowing, signaling that a price shift could occur in the coming days. Additionally, the Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is currently about to drop into oversold territory, indicating that the shift could be bullish. Going long may be the right approach for this pair.

USD/CHF

Both the Williams Percent Range and the Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart are very close to crossing into overbought territory, signaling that downward movement could occur in the coming days. Traders will want to closely watch these two indicators. If they do signal that the pair is overbought, it may be a good time to open short positions.

The Wild Card

USD/MXN

A bullish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that upward movement could occur in the near future. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed into oversold territory. Forex traders may want to open long positions for this pair ahead of a possible upward breach.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

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By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The dollar-yen cross is trading within range but closed last week on the lower side as investors sought the safety of the yen. Safe haven demand has been spurred by growing concerns about the euro zone economy as well as the global economic slowdown. Last week, the Bank of Japan decided to refrain from making any intervention on the strengthening yen as it waits for any action from the European Central Bank. There are three major events from Japan that are expected to shape the USD/JPY sentiments this week.  The first major event will on Sunday where the preliminary GDP data will be given. The preliminary GDP data showed one percent expansion of the GDP in the first quarter. The figure was then revised to 1.2 percent GDP growth. The encouraging results are positive for the yen and investors are buying the yen as safe haven demand rages.

The two major reports will be released on Monday; the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the Tertiary Industry Activity which will be released at 2350hrs. The Bank of Japan members showed optimism in their last meeting, deciding to refrain from making any further asset-purchases. This has been related to the growing domestic demand which has spurred economic recovery in the country. Some of the major downside risks facing Japanese economy include the growing global uncertainty, risk of deflation, and the never-ending euro zone debt crisis. In their last meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee members decided that the BOJ should be ready to intervene should the risks materialized, but decided to refrain from making any intervention at the moment. Investors will be looking at the minutes to evaluate how members assessed the economy.

The Tertiary Industry Activity report, which will be released at 2350hrs, is expected to show some improvements. The services sector activity was encouraging in May when it increased by 0.7 percent, which is better than the market expectation of 0.2 percent. There were improvements in retail trade, wholesale trade, welfare and medical health care. Further improvements were registered in amusement services, compound services, information and communications, and technical services.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By The Sizemore Letter

September 12, 2012. This is the date that may ultimately decide the fate of the Eurozone.

It has nothing to do with Greece, Spain, Italy, or any of the other problem children of Europe. No, it is Europe’s stern schoolmistress Germany that holds the fate of the currency zone in the balance.

On September 12, the eight justices of Germany’s constitutional court will meet to decide the legality of the Eurozone’s rescue fund or, more accurately, the legality of Germany’s participation in the bailout fund under the German constitution. Should Germany back out due a court veto, it’s difficult to see the euro surviving the crisis of confidence that would follow.

Americans are no strangers to debates over constitutionality; the 5-4 decision to uphold the ObamaCare legislation was one of the biggest headlines of 2012. But the German debates are a very different animal.

There are two competing clauses in the German constitution. One declares Germany to be “a democratic and federal state” with power determined “through elections and other votes.” This would seem to preclude Germany from granting control of its budget to an EU watchdog or obligating the German state to bail out Eurozone neighbors; the judges have already questioned whether such transfers of sovereignty are permissible.

But then, the German constitution also calls for Germany to strive for a “united Europe,” which would be presumed to include some degree of fiscal union.

In effect, the fate of Europe depends on which clause of the German constitution the justices decide take precedence.

When clients ask me “what keeps you up at night,” this is it. I fear that lack of German commitment could cause the entire European project to unravel.

If the German court finds the bailouts unconstitutional, then Germany would have to amend or even rewrite its constitution in order to participate—which would require a referendum. And how likely does that sound?

Even if a charismatic leader were to convince German voters that constitutional change is the right thing to do, these things take time, and time is a luxury that Europe doesn’t have at the moment.

Now that I have sufficiently scared you, I should point out that I do not see the German constitutional court torpedoing the bailouts.

They know what is at stake, and they don’t want to be responsible for the death of the European project.

I am comfortable being invested in European equities, and Sizemore Capital has an overweight allocation to European equities in its Tactical ETF and Sizemore Investment Letter portfolios.

Still, investors have to consider the “what ifs” when they put capital at risk, and it makes sense to keep a little cash on the sidelines “just in case.” It wouldn’t be the first time that ideology trumped pragmatism in a high-profile court case.

If we get a selloff in the days leading up to the court’s decision, I would view it as a buying opportunity. But, if the German court strikes down the bailout facility or attaches so many conditions as to make it unworkable, I recommend that investors sell all European equities and all but your highest-conviction core American positions as well. Because at that point, the probability of a full-blown meltdown on par with that of 2008 becomes uncomfortably high.

This article originally appeared on MarketWatch.

No related posts.

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Tuesday 14 August 2012, 07:45 EDT

SPOT MARKET gold prices traded above $1610 an ounce Tuesday morning in London, slightly below where they started the week, while European markets edged higher following news of better-than-expected German economic growth.

Silver prices briefly rallied back above $28 per ounce before retreating, while other commodities were similarly flat on the day.

“Despite wide daily ranges for the past few weeks due to thin liquidity, the [gold] market remains pretty quiet,” says a note from Swiss bullion refiner MKS.

A day earlier, gold prices fell 1% as the Euro edged lower towards the end of Monday’s trading, after news of a second legal challenge to the creation of the Eurozone’s €500 billion permanent bailout fund the European Stability Mechanism.

Berlin economics professor Markus Kerber submitted an argument that the German Constitutional Court should delay a preliminary decision on the ESM, currently due for September 12, until the European Court of Justice rules on a similar complaint referred to it by the Supreme Court of Ireland.

The German Constitutional Court issued a statement Tuesday saying it does not plan to delay its ruling.

Germany’s economy meantime grew by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year – slower than in Q1, but stronger than many analysts expected – according to an initial estimate of gross domestic product published Tuesday.

“The German economy is fundamentally in good structural shape,” says Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer.

“But [it] can’t decouple from the recession in the Eurozone, plus the global economy has also shifted down a gear.”

French GDP was flat at zero percent in Q2, although many analysts were forecasting a slight contraction.

GDP for the Eurozone as a whole meantime shrank by 0.2% in the second quarter, data from Eurostat show.

“We do not think that Germany on its own can keep the entire Eurozone afloat,” says Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro.

Here in the UK, consumer price inflation ticked higher last month to 2.6% – up from 2.4% in June – official figures published Tuesday show.

“It is important not to read too much into one month’s inflation figures,” says Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight.

“The overall trend in inflation currently remains down…nevertheless the move back up in consumer price inflation in July does raise concern that it may not come down as quickly as hoped for.”

“Concerns over inflation and potential monetary easing bode well for gold,” adds Barclays analyst Suki Cooper.

“[But] the metal is missing the support of a solid floor.”

Over in India, traditionally the world’s biggest gold buying nation, imports of gold bullion in 2012 could be down 30% compared to last year, according to Bombay Bullion Association president Prithviraj Kothari.

“Demand is very dull even though the festive season is just days away,” says Kothari.

“Even jewelers are opting to keep lower inventory,” adds one dealer in Mumbai.

“They are worried about slowing rural demand due to a drought.”

“Gold prices are holding up very well in the light of weak demand from the jewelry sector and from investors,” says Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank.

“That bodes well for a price increase that we expect for the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter.”

“Policy expectations will determine the bulk of gold’s performance,” adds a note from UBS.

“Gold needs a ‘big bang’ to reignite investor interest, the likely culprit to be policy response from central banks, with US action the key.”

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

Source: ForexYard

The euro saw modest gains against the US dollar in overnight trading ahead of euro-zone GDP data and a German Economic Sentiment figure set to be released today. After falling close to $2 a barrel during afternoon trading yesterday, crude oil was able to bounce back during the overnight session due to increased tensions in the Middle East which has led to supply side fears among investors. The commodity is currently trading just below $93.50.

Main News for Today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment- 09:00 GMT
• The economic sentiment figure is expected to come in at -19.4, which would indicate significant pessimism in the German economy
• If the figure comes in below the forecasted level, the euro could see some losses during the European session

Euro-zone Flash GDP- 09:00 GMT
• The euro-zone GDP figure is forecasted to come in at -0.2%
• If true, it would signal a contraction in the euro-zone economies and could result in the euro giving up some of its recent gains

US Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales- 12:30 GMT
• Both the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are forecasted to come in well above last month’s figures
• If true, it may signal to investors that the US economy is expanding and could result in dollar gains during afternoon trading

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By Central Bank News

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The pound-dollar cross had a quiet week and almost closed the week unchanged at 1.5682 from the opening level of 1.5652. There are about seven reports from the UK that are expected to shape the cross this week.

The first report on Monday will be the RICS House Price Balance which will be released at 23.01hrs GMT. The index declined in July by 22 percent and the market expects a similar decline for August. This deteriorating figure is a signal of a weakening housing sector. The CPI and RPI reports will be released on Tuesday concurrently at 0830hrs GMT. The CPI is expected to increase by 2.4 percent, the same as July increase. The market is also predicted an increase in the RPI with the same margin of 2.8 percent as last reading.

The market will also be treated to another series of reports from UK on Wednesday, starting with the Claimant Count Change which will be released at 0830hrs GMT. The data had indicated a decrease in the number of unemployed people in July posting a figure of 6.1k. The market is expecting this figure to increase by some few thousands to reach 6.6k. The MPC Meeting Minutes and Unemployment Rate report will be released at the same time at 0830hrs GMT of Wednesday. The market will be looking to get a more hawkish voting pattern from the MPC meeting. Investors will scrutinize the report to see how the Monetary Policy Committee members thought and voted for the interest rate and quantitative easing program. The unemployment rate in the UK dropped to 8.1 percent in July and the market expects this figure to remain the same for June.

The last major report from the UK will be the Retail Sales report which will be released at 0830hrs GMT. The indicator increased by only 0.1 percent in July, which was weaker than the market expectation. The market is expecting the same figure this time round.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox