Gold Climbs to 3-Month High, Euro Leaders “Getting Benefit of Doubt”, Republicans Call for Fed Audit

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday 22 August 2012, 07:15 EDT

SPOT MARKET gold prices hit their highest level since early May Wednesday, rising to $1645 an ounce during this morning’s London trading.

Silver prices also gained, rising to $29.70 per ounce – their highest level since early June.

By contrast, European stock markets ticked lower, while commodities were broadly flat and US Treasuries gained, ahead of the publication of Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes later today.

A day earlier, gold prices jumped 1% in less than three hours Tuesday, hitting the top of the trading range that stretches back to May.

“The break above resistance from $1624 to $1629 is bullish,” say technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

“This area should now provide some support.”

“There is a stimulus premium built into gold of $30-$40, we believe,” adds a note from ANZ.

“If the Fed minutes prove more hawkish than market expectations, some of that premium could evaporate.”

In India, which reclaimed its traditional position as the world’s biggest gold buyer in the second quarter, Rupee gold prices rose to near record highs Wednesday, with increased buying reported from retailers and investors.

On the currency markets this morning, the Euro rose to its highest level against the Dollar since July 5, following reports earlier in the week that suggested the European Central Bank will discuss a policy of intervention in bond markets when it meets next month.

“For the time being, it looks like investors are giving the Europeans the benefit of the doubt that they will indeed pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat,” says INTL FCStone analyst Ed Meir.

Greece will need to find an extra €2 billion in austerity savings over the next two years, taking the total needed to €13.5 billion, if it is to meet its current bailout conditions, a senior Greek finance ministry official told newswire Reuters Tuesday.

Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurogroup of single currency finance ministers, is visiting Athens today to hold talks with Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras. Samaras will then visit Berlin and Paris to meet German and French leaders later in the week.

“We are not asking for extra money,” Samaras says in an interview published in Wednesday’s addition of German tabloid Bild.

“All we want is a little ‘air to breathe’ to get the economy going and increase state income…more time does not automatically mean more money.”

In the US meantime, the Republican Party has said it will include language calling for an annual audit of the Federal Reserve as part of its Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

“Add this to Romney’s claim that he would not reappoint [Fed chairman] Bernanke after his current term expires in January 2014 and we can see that a Republican victory could give the market some reasons for concern,” says Steve Barrow, head of G10 research at Standard Bank.

Europe’s major clearing house LCH.Clearnet has said it will start accepting unallocated gold bullion as collateral to cover traders’ margins from next Tuesday. An initial haircut of 14% will be applied. The move follows a similar announcement by CME Clearing Europe last week.

The difference between gold prices and platinum prices continued to narrow this morning, after hitting an all-time high last week. Platinum rallied above $1520 per ounce Wednesday, following news that the world’s biggest producer, Anglo American Platinum, has received higher wage demands from its South African workers.

The Association of Mineworkers and Construction Workers (AMCU) said Wednesday it has “nothing to do” with those demands.

“Since the start of this year,” reports Reuters, “the AMCU has been muscling in to grab members from the National Union of Mineworkers in a bitter turf war that has triggered violence at several mines and shaken the industry.”

Last week South African police shot dead 34 striking workers at Lonmin’s Marikana mine. South Africa produces a reported 75% of the world’s platinum.

Mining giant BHP Billiton meantime has mothballed its planned expansion to its Olympic Dam copper and uranium project in Australia, citing rising cost pressures.

Steel and iron ore prices in China meantime have fallen to their lowest levels since 2009, the Financial Times reports.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

Forex Daily review- 22.08.2012

Forex Daily review brought to you by REAL FOREX | www.Real-forex.com

Tracking the EUR/USD pair
Date: 21.08.2012   Time: 18:04  Rate: 1.2479
Daily chart
Last Review

The price continues its movement sideways while being consistent about holding close to the 1.2290 balance point. Descending of the price and closure of the candle under the Bollinger’s moving average will probably lead the price to a bearish move while its first target is the lower Bollinger band. On the other hand, breaching of the 1.2436 price level will probably continue towards the next resistance on the 1.2692 price level.
 
Current review for today
The price is looking like breaching the 1.2436 price level and it is possible to assume that its establishment above this level will continue the creating uptrend, while its first target is the closest resistance on the 1.2560 price level. On the other hand, in case the price will go back under the 1.2436 price level will indicate that the range will continue between this level and the 1.2290 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
eur/usd
 
 
4 Hour chart
Date: 21.08.2012   Time: 18:11 Rate: 1.2480
Last Review

The price is ranging between the 1.2250 and the 1.2387 price levels for several days. Breaching the upper ranging level will probably lead the price to the 1.2444 Fibonacci correction level at first stage. On the other hand, breaking of the 1.2250 price level will probably lead the price towards the last low on the 1.2134 price level.
 
Current review for today
Indeed the breaking of the 1.2387 price level led the price to a sharp move upwards which reached the target of yesterday’s review on the 1.2444 price level and even breached it. Its closest target at this point is the 1.2517 price level, which was taken from the depth of the range (light blue background) and its throw upwards. It is possible to assume that before reaching the target, the price will perform a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend started on the 1.2290 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
eur/usd
 
 
GBP/USD
Date: 21.08.2012   Time: 18:21  Rate: 1.5786
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price has breached the 1.5720 price level but stopped on the trend line connecting the peaks (upper black broken line). It is possible to see that a shrinking ascending price channel was created (black broken lines) and as soon as the price will breach the lower lip of the tunnel it should create a correction move in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend started on the 1.5490 price level. On the other hand, a continuation of the uptrend is supposed to lead the price at first stage towards the last peak on the 1.5777 price level.
 
Current review for today
The price has breached the 1.5745 price level which is used as the neck line of the “One in, one out” pattern (blue broken lines), while its target is the 1.5816 price level. It is possible to see that the price has breached the last peak on the 1.5777 price level, at this point the price might perform a correction of the last uptrend which started on the 1.5674 price level and its depth will be in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend.
 
You can see the chart below:
gbp/usd
 
 
AUD/USD
Date: 21.08.2012   Time: 18:29  Rate: 1.0492
4 Hour chart
Last Review

The price indeed reached the 1.0444 target level and even broke it, stopped on the 1.0411 price level and corrected the last downtrend which started around the 1.0530 price level. It is possible to see that at the moment a descending price structure is taking place and in addition the price is located under the Bollinger’s moving average. Breaking of the 1.0411 price level followed by the breaking of the lower lip of the ascending price channel (black broken lines) will indicate that it is possible that the price will perform a correction of the uptrend locked in this tunnel (blue broken line) in size of between a third and two thirds, meaning between the 1.0377 and the 1.232 price levels. On the other hand, breaching of the upper lip of the descending tunnel (red broken line) will probably lead the price towards the upper lip of the ascending price channel.
 
Current review for today
The price has breached the upper lip of the descending price channel (red broken lines), but returns now to check if this trend line can switch positions and be used as a support line. In case it can, breaching the next resistance on the 1.0540 price level will probably lead the price to a continuation of the uptrend towards the last peak of the 1.0613 price level. On the other hand, its return into the descending tunnel and another breaking of the 1.0444 price level will probably lead to a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend which is locked in the ascending price channel (blue broken line), probably to the area between the 1.0377 and the 1.0232 price levels.
 
You can see the chart below:
AUD/USD
 
 
USD/CHF
Date: 21.08.2012   Time: 18:35  Rate: 0.9626
4 Hour chart
Last Review

The price is clearly ranging between the 0.9700 and the 0.9810 price levels. Breaching the 0.9810 price level will probably lead the price to the closest resistance on the 0.9866 price level. On the other hand, breaking of the 0.9700 support level will probably lead the price to the 0.9650 price level which is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the uptrend marked in blue broken line.
 
Current review for today
The price has breached the 0.9700 price level and reached the target from yesterday’s review, the 0.9650 price level. By breaking this level, the price will probably continue towards the next support on the 0.9564 price level, while in first stage it is possible that the price will perform a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend.
 
You can see the chart below:
USD/CHF
 
 
USD/JPY
Date: 21.08.2012   Time: 18:42  Rate: 79.33
4 Hour chart
Last Review

The price indeed based above the 78.93 price level, reached the 79.20 target and came close to the 79.80 price level. Breaching of this level will probably lead the price towards the last peak on the 80.60 price level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area and its descending under the 79.20 price level will probably lead the price to check the lower Bollinger band.
 
Current review for today
The price is ranging now between the 79.20 and the 79.80 price levels while it is possible to how the Bollinger bands are closing on the price and reducing the volatility. Breaching of the 79.80 price level in a proven way will probably lead towards the last peak on the 80.60 price level. On the other hand, it is possible to see a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started on the 78.15 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
USD/JPY
 
 
Important announcements for today:
13.30 (GMT+1) CAD – Core Retail Sales (Monthly)
15.00 (GMT+1) USD – Existing Home Sales
19.00 (GMT+1) USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes
 

Speculation Regarding ECB Action Sends EUR Higher

Source: ForexYard

Speculations among investors regarding possible future action to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy yesterday caused the euro to spike against several of its main currency rivals. Today, traders will want to pay attention to several news events out of the US that could potentially lead to market volatility. At 14:00 GMT, the Existing Home Sales figure could help the recover some of yesterday’s losses if it comes in above the forecasted 4.52M. That being said, and gains the greenback makes could be limited if the Fed hints at a new round of quantitative easing when the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released at 18:00 GMT.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Falls as Risk Taking Returns to the Marketplace

The US dollar took losses throughout the European session yesterday, as speculations that the ECB will soon take definitive steps to combat the euro-zone debt crisis led to risk taking in the marketplace. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell close to 100 pips to reach as low as 0.9627 during afternoon trading. The GBP/USD was able to reach a two-month high at 1.5777 during mid-day trading, despite a worse than expected UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Figure. A very slight downward correction later in the day brought the pair down to the 1.5770 level.

Today, the dollar will have several opportunities to recoup some of its recent losses, as a batch of potentially significant US news is set to be released. The Existing Home Sales figure, scheduled for 14:00 GMT, is expected to show improvements in the US real-estate sector. If today’s news comes in above the expected 4.52M, the dollar could see gains against the yen during mid-day trading.

At 18:00, the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released. While some analysts are forecasting the meeting minutes to hint at a new round of quantitative easing, others are more skeptical given recent positive US news. If the Fed refrains from mentioning any new plans to stimulate the US economy, the dollar could see gains during evening trading.

EUR – Analysts Warn That EUR Gains Could be Temporary

The euro hit a two-week high against the US dollar and a seven-week high vs. the Japanese yen yesterday, as investors became increasingly convinced that the ECB will soon move in to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy. The EUR/USD shot up more than 100 pips during European trading, eventually reaching above the 1.2470 level. Against the yen, the euro advanced 107 pips to trade as high as 99.03 during the afternoon session.

Today, traders will want to note that some analysts are viewing the euro’s recent gains as temporary, given the lack of positive economic news coming out of the euro-zone. Today, traders will want to pay attention to a batch of US news set to be released during afternoon trading. Any better than expected results could cause the euro to reverse some of its recent gains. In addition, tomorrow is likely to be a volatile day for the common-currency, as manufacturing and service data from the euro-zone, France and Germany are scheduled to be announced.

Gold – Gold Reaches 2 ½ Month High

The price of gold reached as high as $1641.09 during European trading yesterday, a 2 ½ month high. Overall, the precious metal was up close to $20 an ounce during European trading, largely due to an increase in risk taking amid speculations that the ECB will soon take steps to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy.

Turning to today, gold traders will want to continue monitoring announcements out of the euro-zone. With several of the wealthier countries in the region voicing opposition to the ECB’s plan to combat the euro-zone debt crisis, analysts are warning that investors could quickly abandon higher-yielding assets, like gold, if it appears that the economic situation could deteriorate further.

Crude Oil – US Oil Inventories Could Keep Crude Bullish

Crude oil was able to take advantage of risk taking in the marketplace yesterday to gain more than $1 a barrel during European trading. The commodity rose as high as $97.81 yesterday, its highest level since the beginning of May, as a result of investor speculations regarding possible ECB actions and supply side fears due to conflicts in the Middle East.

Today, oil traders will want to pay attention to the US Crude Oil Inventories figure, set to be released at 14:30 GMT. Last week, the price of oil saw significant gains after the news came in below expectations, which led to assumptions that demand for oil in the US has gone up. If today’s figure once again comes in below the forecasted level, oil could extend its upward momentum.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are beginning to narrow, signaling that this pair could see a price shift in the coming days. A bullish cross on the same chart’s MACD/OsMA indicates that the price shift could be upward. Going long may be the wise strategy for this pair.

GBP/USD

The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is approaching the overbought zone, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future. This theory is supported by the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart, which has formed a bearish cross. Opening short positions may be the wise choice.

USD/JPY

The weekly chart’s Bollinger Bands have begun to narrow, indicating that this pair could see a price shift this week. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart has formed a bearish cross while the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is in overbought territory. Going short may be a wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

While the weekly chart’s MACD/OsMA has formed a bearish cross, most other long-term technical indicators show this pair range trading. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the coming days.

The Wild Card

Nikkei 225

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is approaching overbought territory, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

Central Bank News Link List – Aug 22, 2012

By Central Bank News

    Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news

The Entrepreneur’s Miracle Ingredient for Success in a Free Market

By MoneyMorning.com.au

‘Fail to succeed’ and ‘fail fast’ are phrases familiar to entrepreneurs.

It simply means, if you’ve got a good idea, get on with it and try to make it work.

If it works, you may find yourself joining the ranks of Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg. If it doesn’t work, don’t worry; you’ve failed, but so have millions of other entrepreneurs.

And besides, Gates, Jobs, and Zuckerberg didn’t get it right first time either. The point is, they didn’t stop at their first failure. They accepted it, adapted, and moved on.

But experiencing failure isn’t the only key to success. There’s one more ingredient. And unless you’ve got it, entrepreneurs will never achieve success…

What is this miracle ingredient?

Simple, it’s individualism.

Individualism – the Entrepreneur’s Key to Success

Or you could call it self-interest or selfishness. But it doesn’t matter what you call it, without it an economy can’t progress.

Now, we know what you’ll say, ‘What about China, it’s successful, yet it’s centrally planned?’

Well, we’ll agree that those who achieve success in China also act in self-interest. The bureaucrats fattening their pockets, and businessmen currying favour with the government to win contracts.

But that’s the dark side of individualism. They’re not real entrepreneurs. Those people are who Thomas DiLorenzo calls ‘political entrepreneurs’.

In How Capitalism Saved America: The Untold History of Our Country, from the Pilgrims to the Present, DiLorenzo explains the difference between ‘market entrepreneurs’ and ‘political entrepreneurs’:

‘A pure market entrepreneur, or capitalist, succeeds financially by selling a newer, better, or less expensive product on the free market without any government subsidies, direct or indirect. The key to his success as a capitalist is his ability to please the consumer, for in a capitalist society the consumer ultimately calls the economic shots. By contrast, a political entrepreneur succeeds primarily by influencing government to subsidize his business or industry, or to enact legislation or regulation that harms his competitors.’

Or in China’s case, jailing, beating up, or even killing their competition.

Therefore, when we talk about individualism, we’re talking about the good guys…market entrepreneurs. We’re not talking about the corrupt political entrepreneurs who profit from government favours.

But still, some people just don’t get it. Or they don’t want to get it.

When the Government Tackles Climate Change –
Instead of Entrepreneurs and the Free Market

Yesterday, we read the latest report from the Australian Climate Commission. It’s titled, The Critical Decade: International Action on Climate Change.

The most amusing section was the timeline printed on page 25 of the 75 page report:

Source: Australian Climate Commission

The first climate conference was in 1979. The new agreement is due to start in 2020. That means it will take national governments 41 years to come to a deal on what to do about climate change.

Even by pen-pushing bureaucracy standards, 41 years is a long time. Clearly ‘failing fast’ isn’t in their dictionary.

And as you’d expect, there’s still no guarantee the agreement will achieve anything.

As we say, the document is 75 pages long. And yet, in all the talk about solutions to climate change, it doesn’t once suggest allowing individuals and the free market to find a solution. Instead, you get this kind of central planning claptrap:

‘One way to reduce emissions is to set an explicit price on emissions, for example, through emissions trading schemes or a carbon tax. There are other ways to promote emission reductions without putting a direct price on emissions. These include regulation, subsidies and direct government expenditure.’

That paragraph brought to mind a quote from former US president, Ronald Reagan. Rupert, an Australian Small-Cap Investigator subscriber sent it to us:

‘Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.’

Reagan made the comment at the White House Conference on Small Business on 15 August, 1986.

That’s how governments think about everything. And that includes climate change.

And that’s why it will take 41 years (if ever) to implement a climate change policy. Imagine if governments had gotten involved at the early stages of car industry. What would have happened?

Well, we don’t need to imagine, we can show you…

When the the Government Builds Cars –
Instead of Entrepreneurs and the Free Market

In the free market United States, between 1896 and 1930 there were over 1,800 car makers. Not all of them survived of course. But that’s what happens in a free market. Ideas come and go…and the ideas that best serve the consumer tend to win.

Innovation, capitalism, and competition spur new ideas and technological change. In the end, the consumer gets a better product.

Compare that to the Soviet Union, where there was no auto industry to speak of. Why? Because central planners decided what was good for the comrades. But because a central planner can’t know what consumers want, their ideas are doomed to fail.

In a free market, failure happens fast and success outweighs failure. But in a centrally planned economy, failure leads to more failure.

That’s because the bureaucrats decide the idea wasn’t bad, but rather that the government didn’t spend enough money on it. Sound familiar?

Market Entrepreneurs Over Political Entrepreneurs

That’s why governments must stay out of the market. And why they shouldn’t subsidise political entrepreneurs. This will give market entrepreneurs the space to test and refine their ideas to meet real consumer demand.

The same principle applies to solving climate change (if climate change exists). Let the free market and individuals fix it.

Of course, some suggest the government has to spend, regulate, and subsidise the green industry, or else nothing will happen. But that’s not true. In Australia about three-quarters of people believe in climate change.

And in Canada, 86% of people polled believe climate change is either man-made or a mix of man-made and natural causes.

It’s proof that people would like to do something about it. But due to high taxes, government intervention, and the government insisting on a centrally planned solution, most people end up doing nothing.

In short, it’s proven that free markets and individualism work better than central planning. Not just for consumer products and services, but for everything…including the environment.

Unfortunately, the vested interests want to spend your tax dollars (and keep their government-funded jobs). And politicians want to lay down their own legacy.

That means the chances of them allowing the market to provide a fix are very slim indeed.

Cheers,
Kris

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The Entrepreneur’s Miracle Ingredient for Success in a Free Market

Why Capitalism Could Be Haiti’s Saviour

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Capitalism and entrepreneurship make the difference in the world. Whether a country is rich or poor depends on both. The evidence is all around us.

A Travel Channel episode of No Reservations, a cooking-focused show narrated by Anthony Bourdain, took viewers to Port-au-Prince, Haiti. I had heard that the show offered unique insight into the country and its troubles. I couldn’t imagine how. But it turns out to be true.

Through the lens of food, we can gain an insight into culture, and from culture to economy, and from economy to politics and finally to what’s wrong in this country and what can be done about it.

Through this micro lens, we gain more insight than we would have if the program were entirely focused on economic issues. Such an episode on economics would have featured dull interviews with treasury officials and IMF experts and lots of talk about trade balances and other macroeconomic aggregates that miss the point entirely.

Instead, with the focus on food and cooking, we can see what it is that drives daily life among the Haitian multitudes. And what we find is surprising in so many ways.

No Easy Solutions to Complex Problems in Haiti

In a scene early in the show set in this giant city after the earthquake, Bourdain and his crew stop to eat some local food from a vendor. He discusses its ingredients and samples some items. Crowds of hungry people begin to gather. They are doing more than gawking at the camera crews. They are waiting in the hope of getting something to eat.

Bourdain thinks of a way to do something nice for everyone. Realizing that in this one sitting, he is eating a quantity of food that would last most Haitians three days, he buys out the remaining food from the vendor and gives it away to locals.

Nice gesture! Except that something goes wrong. Once the word spreads about the free food – word-of-mouth in Haiti is faster than Facebook chat – people start pouring in. Lines form and get long. Disorder ensues.

Some people step forward to keep order. They bring belts and start hitting. The entire scene becomes very unpleasant for everyone – and the viewer gets the sense that it is worse than we are shown.

Bourdain correctly draws the lesson that the solutions to the problem of poverty here are more complex than it would appear at first glance. Good intentions go awry.

They were thinking with their hearts instead of their heads, and ended up causing more pain than was originally there in the first place. From this event forward, he begins to approach the problems of this country with a bit more sophistication.

The rest of the show takes us through shanty towns, markets, art shows, festivals, and parades – and interviews all kinds of people who know the lay of the land. This is not a show designed to tug at your heart strings in the conventional sort of way.

Yes, there is obvious human suffering, but the overall impression I got was not that. Instead, I came away with a sense that Haiti is a very normal place not unlike all places we know from experience, but with one major difference: it is very poor.

The Precondition of Liberty in Haiti

By the time the show was made, the glamour of the post-earthquake onslaught of American visitors seeking to help had vanished. One who remains is actor Sean Penn. Although he’s known as a Hollywood lefty, he’s actually living there, chugging up and down the hills of a shanty town, unshaven and dishevelled, being what he calls a “functionary” and getting stuff for people who need it.

He had no easy answers, and he had sharp words for American donors who think that dumping money into new projects is going to help anyone.

The people of Haiti in the documentary conform to what every visitor says about them. They are wonderfully friendly, talented, enterprising, happy, and full of hope. Like most people, they hate their government. Actually, they hate their government more than most Americans hate theirs.

Truly, this is a precondition of liberty. There is a real sense of us-versus-them alive in Haiti, so much so that when the presidential palace collapsed in the recent earthquake, crowds gathered outside to cheer and cheer! It was the one saving grace of an otherwise terrible storm.

With all these enterprising, hard-working, and creative people, millions of them, what could possibly be wrong with the place? Well, for one thing, the earthquake destroyed most homes. If this had been the United States, this earthquake would not have caused the same level of damage.

This led many outsiders to think that somehow the absence of building codes was the core of the problem, and hence the solution is more imposition of government control.

But the reality shows that this building-code notion is some sort of joke. The very idea that a government could somehow go around beating up people who provide shelter for themselves while failing to obey the central plan is simply laughable. Coercion of this sort would bring about no positive results and lead only to vast corruption, violence, and homelessness.

Haiti’s Missing Factor in Wealth Creation

The core of the problem has nothing to do with a lack of regulations. The problem is the absence of wealth. It is obviously true that people prefer safer places to live, but the question is: what is the cost, and is this economically viable? The answer is that it is not viable, not in Haiti, not with this population that is barely getting by at all.

Where is the wealth? There is plenty of trade, plenty of doing, plenty of exchange and money changing hands. Why does the place remain desperately poor? If the market economists are correct that trade and commerce are the key to wealth, and there is plenty of both here, why is wealth not happening?

One can easily see how people can get confused, because the answer is not obvious until you have some economic understanding. A random visitor might easily conclude that Haiti is poor because somehow the wealth is being hogged by its northern neighbour, the United States.

If we weren’t devouring so much of the world’s stock of wealth, it could be distributed more evenly and encompass Haiti too. Or another theory might be that the handful of international companies, or even aid workers, are somehow stealing all the money and denying it to the people.

These are not stupid theories. They are just theories – neither confirmed nor refuted by facts alone. They are only shown to be wrong once you realize a central insight of economics. It is this: trade and commerce are necessary conditions for the accumulation of wealth, but they are not sufficient conditions. Also necessary is that precious institution of capital.

Why Economies Flourish

What is capital? Capital is a thing (or service) that is produced not for consumption but for further production. The existence of capital industries implies several stages of production, or up to thousands upon thousands of steps in a long structure of production.

Capital is the institution that gives rise to business-to-business trading, an extended workforce, firms, factories, ever more specialization, and generally the production of all kinds of things that by themselves cannot be useful in final consumption but rather are useful for the production of other things.

Capital is not so much defined as a particular good – most things have many varieties of uses – but rather a purpose of a good. Its purpose is extended over a long period of time with the goal of providing for final consumption.

Capital is employed in a long structure of production that can last a month, a year, 10 years, or 50 years. The investment at the earliest (highest) stages has to take place long before the payoff circles around following final consumption.

In a developed economy, the vast majority of productive activities consist in participation in these capital-goods sectors and not in final-consumption-goods sectors. Many people (I’ve been among them) rail against the term capitalism because it implies that freedom is all about privileging the owners of capital.

But there is a sense in which capitalism is the perfect term for a developed economy: the development, accumulation, and sophistication of the capital-goods sector is the characteristic feature that makes it different from an undeveloped economy.

The thriving of the capital-goods sector was the great contribution of the Industrial Revolution to the world.

Capitalism did in fact arise at a specific time in history, as Mises said, and this was the beginning of the mass democratization of wealth.

How to Guarantee Poverty

Rising wealth is always characterized by such extended orders of production. These are nearly absent in Haiti. Most all people are engaged in day-to-day commercial activities. They live for the day. They trade for the day. They plan for the day. Their time horizons are necessarily short, and their economic structures reflect that.

It is for this reason that all the toil and trading and busyness in Haiti feels like peddling a stationary bicycle. You are working very hard and getting better and better at what you are doing, but you are not actually moving forward.

Now, this is interesting to me because anyone can easily miss this point just by looking around Haiti where you see people working and producing like crazy, and yet the people never seem to get their footing.

Without an understanding of economics, it is nearly impossible to see the unseen: the capital that is absent that would otherwise permit economic growth.

And this is the very reason for the persistence of poverty, which, after all, is the natural condition of mankind. It takes something heroic, something special, something historically unique, to dig out of it.

Now to the question of why the absence of capital.

The answer has to do with the regime. It is a well-known fact that any accumulation of wealth in Haiti makes you a target, if not of the population in general (which has grown suspicious of wealth, and probably for good reason), then certainly of the government.

The regime, no matter who is in charge, is like a voracious dog on the loose, seeking to devour any private wealth that happens to emerge.

This creates something even worse than the Higgsian problem of “regime uncertainty.” The regime is certain: it is certain to steal anything it can, whenever it can, always and forever. So why don’t people vote out the bad guys and vote in the good guys?

Well, those of us in the United States who have a bit of experience with democracy know the answer: there are no good guys. The system itself is owned by the state and rooted in evil. Change is always illusory, a fiction designed for public consumption.

This is an interesting case of a peculiar way in which government is keeping prosperity at bay. It is not wrecking the country through an intense enforcement of taxation and regulation or nationalization. One gets the sense that most people never have any face time with a government official and never deal with paperwork or bureaucracy really.

The state strikes only when there is something to loot. And loot it does: predictably and consistently. And that alone is enough to guarantee a permanent state of poverty.

Now, to be sure, there are plenty of Americans who are firmly convinced that we would all be better off if we grew our own food, bought only locally, kept firms small, eschewed modern conveniences like home appliances, went back to using only natural products, expropriated wealthy savers, harassed the capitalistic class until it felt itself unwelcome and vanished. This paradise has a name, and it is Haiti.

Jeffrey Tucker
Contributing Writer, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This an edited version of an article that first appeared in Laissez Faire Today

From the Archives…

A Housing Bubble…Upon Bubble…Upon Bubble
17-08-2012 – Nick Hubble

How Government Extortion is Happening Right Before Our Eyes
16-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Are Gold Stocks About to Turn?
15-08-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Amazing Ethanol Scam in the USA
14-08-2012 – Jeffrey Tucker

Why I’ve Done a U-Turn on Solar Energy
13-08-2012 – Kris Sayce


Why Capitalism Could Be Haiti’s Saviour

USDCAD rebounds from 0.9842

Being contained by 0.9799 (Apr 27 low) support, USDCAD rebounds from 0.9842, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart. Further rally could be expected over the next several days, and the target would be at 0.9950-1.0000 area. However, the rise from 0.9842 is treated as consolidation of the longer term downtrend from 1.0445 (Jun 4 high), another fall towards 0.9600 is still possible after consolidation, and a breakdown below 0.9842 could signal resumption of the downtrend.

usdcad

Daily Forex Forecast

Using Volatility to Trade IBM Using Options

By JW Jones – www.OptionsTradingSignals.com

One of the hallmarks of an option based trading approach is the ability to accommodate various market conditions by varying the specific construction of your option trade in order to maximize the probability of success.

In order to form a logical basis for trade selection, it is best to think in terms of each of the three primary forces impacting option pricing- price of the underlying, time to expiration, and implied volatility.

For option traders, one of the fundamental characteristics of the current market is the extremely low implied volatility. The new trader could reasonably pose the question “How would I know that?” There are several answers to that question.

First, the most widely followed indicator of implied volatility is the Volatility Index (VIX). This somewhat arcane calculation reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index options and as such is a useful barometer of the overall market volatility. Its current daily chart is included here for reference. Suffice it to say that it is currently at very low levels.

 

VIX Trading Chart

VIX Trading Chart

Less generally known is that there exist volatility indexes for several of the less broadly followed indices such as the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) whose volatility symbol is RVX. The Powershares QQQ ETF also has its very own volatility index in symbol QQV. These less broadly based calculations are particularly useful when the implied volatility of a specific index is not congruent with the general measures of volatility.

Yet another layer of granularity in volatility calculations exist in a few underlying assets for which the CBOE calculates a volatility level, these include:  AAPL, symbol VXAPL; AMZN, symbol VXAZN; GS, symbol VXGS; and GOOG, symbol VXGOG.

Another stock for which this index is calculated is IBM, symbol VXIBM. Its current chart is presented below:

IBM Implied Volatility Chart

IBM Implied Volatility Chart

 

Not only is the IBM implied volatility currently at very low levels, it is substantially less than the actual historic volatility (labeled SV in chart below) and in fact it demonstrates the largest downward divergence from historic volatility we have seen this year.

 

For the option trader, the take home message from this assessment of the current state of implied volatility is that negative vega trades, trades that are inversely impacted by increases or decreases in implied volatility, face a stiff headwind here.

Probabilities strongly favor both a convergence of historic and implied volatilities and return of the current low values of volatility to its historic mean for IBM.

Most option traders usually prefer to enter negative vega trades because this type of trade construction usually benefits from the inevitable and unavoidable passage of time.

Examples of such trades would be naked short puts, butterflies, and iron condors. While such trades are not absolutely contraindicated in the current environment, they are not trade structures we would choose as a first choice.

Let us consider for discussion one of the positive vega trades available in order to increase the probability for a successful outcome. The trade I would like to demonstrate is known as a horizontal spread, a time spread, or most commonly a calendar spread.

The fundamental logic of this spread is to sell a rapidly decaying shorter dated option and buy a longer dated, more slowly decaying option at the same strike price.  The specific strikes for the trade are selected so that the short option is out-of-the-money in order to avoid the potential complication of early assignment.

An example of such a trade using the August and September monthly options at the 205 strike is presented below and reflects a mildly bullish price hypothesis for IBM:

IBM Options

IBM Options

 

Several points of general applicability for calendar spreads deserve emphasis. Our IBM example has 10 days of total duration and for this example we will be looking at a 10 lot trade costing $1,490.

Most importantly the IBM Calendar Spread reaches maximum profitability at expiration when the underlying is at the strike price.  This characteristic is clearly seen in the broken lines on the P&L graph which gradually rise to meet the solid expiration P&L line.  I would also point out that the IBM trade has a positive vega of 166 meaning that for every 1 point increase in volatility, the trade profits $166.

The last point of emphasis and what is not immediately apparent from this graph is the potential for additional profit. As expiration of the August 205 call we are short approaches, there exists the ability to sell additional premium in the weekly calls which would then be available.

As with all option trades, it is important to understand crisply the risk of the trade since we can only arrange probabilities in our favor- there are no guarantees of profit.

This trade has a defined maximum risk of the cost incurred to enter the trade. This is the level of absolute maximum risk that has a low probability of occurring since we have the ability to sell additional premium to reduce this outcome or to simply close the trade should market conditions change.

This IBM Calendar Spread is just one example of using the current market conditions to put the wind at your back as an option trader. I invite you to visit our website and try our service to see these ideas in action.

Simple ONE Trade Per Week Trading Strategy?
Join www.OptionsTradingSignals.com today with our 14 Day Trial

Jw Jones

This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

 

 

“The Commodity Markets Take No Prisoners”

Do you have what it takes to succeed despite losing trades? Peter Brandt does — and shares some of his insights in this FREE report.

By Elliott Wave International

How many losing trades can you tolerate each year and still be successful in the markets? How many consecutive losing trades? How many losing weeks, months, or even years would it take to end your trading career?

Peter L. Brandt is a professional trader who openly acknowledges that only about 30 to 35 percent of his trades over an extended period of time will be profitable. He says that most years, he will “incur eight or more losing trades in a row.” He also says his trading career has seen “losing weeks, losing months, and even losing years.”

So why should you listen to someone who has lost so often?

Recently, an independent accounting audit of Brandt’s annual IRS tax statements across 18 years of trading verified an average annual return of +41.6%. This period included the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

When you trade with the Elliott Wave Principle, you must understand that recognizing a chart pattern is only part of the process. According to Peter:

Successful trading is an upstream swim or uphill run against human nature. It is fair to say that consistently profitable market operations require that a trader learn to overcome strong emotional pulls. In fact, most professional traders can relate how many of their most successful trades required action in direct opposition to emotional urges.

(Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader, p. 28)

Whether you’re a full-time trader or an active investor, the most important elements of your success are education and self-discipline — in a word, experience.

 

Learn from Brandt — a veteran trader and one of a select few contributors to Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist — in this exclusive FREE report:

Foundations of Successful Trading: Insights on Becoming a Consistently Successful Trader from Peter Brandt.

Whether you are an average investor, a novice trader, or an industry professional, you stand to benefit from what Peter Brandt has to say. You can learn more about Brandt and gain insights on his consistently successful approach to market speculation in this free 16-page excerpt from Part I of his book, “Foundations of Successful Trading.”

Download your free report and learn what leads to a lifetime of trading success >> >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “The Commodity Markets Take No Prisoners”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

Sentiment Measure Shows No Fear of Major U.S. Stock Decline

If investors are climbing a “wall of worry,” where’s the evidence?

By Elliott Wave International

The stock market’s recent rally has seemed to ignore Europe’s debt crisis and the weak U.S. economy, and in turn commentators have dusted off an old Wall Street phrase: wall of worry.

  • Why Stocks are Climbing the Wall of Worry — Equities.com, Aug. 10
  • Global stocks have been rallying in recent weeks, climbing a “wall of worry” — CNBC, Aug. 8
  • We do this thing on Wall Street called climbing the wall of worry. — ABC News, Aug. 7
  • Stocks scale wall of worry — Marketwatch, July 19

That’s just a small sample of recent “wall of worry” quotes.

However, one reliable indicator of trader sentiment tells a different story: that traders have few if any worries about a big market plunge.

In fact, the sentiment among traders has been bullish, as noted by the Aug. 10 Financial Forecast Short Term Update [wave labels removed from the chart].

[The chart below] plots the 5-day closing CBOE Equity put/call ratio, which declined to .60 at yesterday’s [Aug. 9] close. That was the lowest close since May 1 (.58)…This measure shows a greatly diminished amount of put volume relative to call volume, indicating that traders feel complacent toward the need to hedge against a major decline in stocks.

Trader sentiment is one of the pillars of market analysis and forecasting — two other such pillars are wave structure and momentum.

All three pillars now send the same market message.

Do not expect commentators to discuss these pillars. The crowd is almost always on the wrong side of the market. Start looking at investment opportunities independently and learn to use wave analysis.

Start learning to count waves for yourself — FREE

 

Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis

The Elliott Wave Crash Course is a series of three FREE videos that demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions.

Access the Elliott Wave Crash Course now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Sentiment Measure Shows No Fear of Major U.S. Stock Decline. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.