Central Bank News Link List – Aug 23, 2012

By Central Bank News

    Here’s today’s Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

Euro-Zone, US News Set to Impact Markets Today

Source: ForexYard

After hitting a seven-week high against the US dollar earlier in the week, the euro took moderate losses against several of its main currency rivals during the first part of the day yesterday. That being said, an increase in US existing home sales led to some risk taking in the marketplace, and the common currency was able to recoup most of its earlier losses. Today, a batch of euro-zone and US news is expected to generate significant market volatility. Traders will want to pay attention to manufacturing and services data out of Germany, France and the euro-zone as a whole, followed by the US Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales figures later in the day.

Economic News

USD – Safe-Haven Dollar Takes Losses amid Risk Taking

The US dollar took losses in afternoon trading yesterday, after an increase in US existing home sales led to risk taking in the marketplace. The home sales figure came in at 4.47M, slightly below the forecasted level of 4.52M, but higher than last month’s 4.37M. As a result, the USD/CHF fell more than 40 pips to reach as low 0.9618 before bouncing back to the 0.96.30 level. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar spent most of the European session stuck in a bearish trend. The USD/JPY fell more than 20 pips to trade as low as 79.14.

Today, traders will want to pay attention to the weekly US Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT, followed by the New Home Sales report at 14:00. Both indicators are forecasted to show growth in the US economy. If true, investor confidence in the pace of the global economic recovery may go up, which could lead to more risk taking in the marketplace. In such a case, safe-haven assets like the dollar could extend yesterday’s losses during afternoon trading.

EUR – French, German Data May Lead to EUR Volatility

After starting the European session yesterday on a bearish note, the euro was able to bounce back during afternoon trading after positive US data led to risk taking in the marketplace. The EUR/USD gained more than 50 pips following the US news to trade as high as 1.2483, just below a recent seven-week high. Against the Australian dollar, the euro was able to capitalize on negative Chinese news earlier in the day to gain more than 40 pips before peaking at 1.1950. As Australia’s biggest trading partner, news out of China tends to have a direct impact on the AUD.

Today, traders will want to pay attention to manufacturing and services indicators out of both France and Germany. As the euro-zone’s biggest economies, French and German news tends to create volatility in the marketplace. Should any of the news come in above expectations, the euro may be able to extend its recent upward trend. At the same time, with investors still unsure regarding ECB plans to boost the euro-zone economic recovery, analysts are warning that any euro gains could be limited.

Gold – Gold Remains Close to a 3 ½ Month High

The price of gold remained close to a recent 3 ½ month high throughout European trading yesterday, as speculations about future ECB steps to combat the euro-zone debt crisis kept prices elevated. After reaching as high as $1644.85 an ounce during early morning trading, the precious metal took moderate losses later in the day and was trading just below the $1640 level by the evening session.

Today, gold traders will want to continue monitoring developments out of the euro-zone, which still have the potential to create market volatility. In addition, should US news during afternoon trading lead to an increase in risk taking, gold could see additional gains.

Crude Oil – US Inventories Lead to Major Gains for Oil

The price of oil shot up following a significantly lower than expected US crude oil inventories figure yesterday. US stockpiles dropped by 5.4 million barrels last week, signaling to investors that demand in the world’s largest oil consuming country has increased. As a result, oil increased by just under $1 a barrel to trade as high as $97.13.

Today, oil traders will want to pay attention to a batch of euro-zone and US indicators scheduled to be released throughout the day. Any positive news may lead to additional risk taking in the marketplace, which could help the price of oil increase further before markets getting ready to close for the weekend.

Technical News

EUR/USD

Long-term technical indicators are providing mixed signals for this pair. On the one hand, the daily chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed into overbought territory, signaling possible downward movement in the near future. On the other hand, the MACD/OsMA on the weekly chart has formed a bullish cross. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair.

GBP/USD

The Slow Stochastic on the daily chart appears close to forming a bearish cross. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed into the overbought zone. This may be a good time to open short positions ahead of a downward correction.

USD/JPY

Most long term technical indicators are trading in neutral territory, meaning that a defined price trend for this pair is difficult to predict at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/CHF

The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has crossed into oversold territory, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the same chart appears close to forming a bullish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator. If the cross forms, it may a good time to open long positions.

The Wild Card

GBP/SGD

A bearish cross on the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic indicates that this pair could see a downward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has crossed into overbought territory. Opening short positions may be a smart choice for forex traders.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

Gold “Ignited” by “Important Shift” in US Fed Policy as China Battles Worsening Slowdown with Fresh Cash Injections

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 23 August, 07:35 EST

WHOLESALE MARKET gold prices ticked lower in London on Thursday from the highest Dollar and Euro levels since end-April after rising again in Asian trade.

Wednesday’s minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting “ignited” the gold investment market, according to one trader, with buy-stops triggered at $1650 according to another.

The move took this week’s gains in gold to 3.0% at $1667 per ounce – half of which has come thanks to a drop in the Dollar’s exchange rate.

Prices to buy silver also rose further overnight, extending this week’s rise to 8.9% at $30.60 per ounce – the highest level since early May.

“Platinum [also] continues it’s steep ascent and helps to drive the rest of the [precious metals] complex higher,” says senior trader Alex Thorndike at MKS in Sydney, pointing to further concerns over industrial unrest in South Africa – source of 75% of the world’s annual platinum output.

New manufacturing data from China, however – compiled in the HSBC/Markit Economics PMI indexes – today showed contraction in all areas except the stockpile of finished goods.

The contraction rate in output, new orders and prices accelerated in August, taking the headline PMI down to a 9-month low of 47.8. A reading of 50 would indicate no change.

Thursday saw the People’s Bank of China conduct yet another “liquidity injection” into the nation’s banking system, bringing the net injection of cash this week to CNY 365 billion ($43bn) – the biggest volume in 7 months according to Reuters and a level not usually seen outside the Chinese New Year holidays.

“We see higher inflation because of rising commodity prices, unconventional monetary policies and increasing sovereign debt,” said Nic Johnson, manager of the $20 billion Commodity Real Return Strategy at Pimco, the world’s largest bond-investment group, to Bloomberg yesterday.

Raising the fund’s gold investment position to 11.5% of its portfolio, “We think gold is going to perform in a positive correlation to changes in inflation,” said Johnson.

“The [US] Fed’s tone,” reckons Chen Min, analyst at Jinrui Futures in Shenzhen, “is totally different in the minutes from previous comments.

“That helped gold break into a higher price range ahead of the peak consumption season” – starting with India’s post-harvest wedding and Diwali seasons, and then running into the Chinese New Year.

Yesterday’s Fed minutes said “many” members felt fresh quantitative easing would be needed “fairly soon”. The option of a “flexible bond buying program” was also discussed, in contrast to the previous QE strategy of buying a pre-announced volume of US Treasury debt.

“A move to an open-ended policy stance would be a important and powerful shift,” says Michael Gapen at Barclays in New York.

“It would, in effect, say that the Fed is in motion until the data tell it to stop.”

European stock markets meantime ticked higher on Thursday. German and French equities have now recovered three-quarters of last autumn’s 30% plunge.

Crude oil rose 1%, while broader commodity markets ticked higher.

Major-economy government bonds also rose yet again, while weaker Eurozone debt fell.

The gap between the rates of interest offered by 10-year Spanish and German debt widened to more than 5 full percentage points.

In Athens on Wednesday, Eurozone finance chief Jean-Claude Juncker said Greece is facing its “last chance” to reduce government spending and so receive fresh bail-out funds from its single-currency partners.

Although “totally opposed” to a Greek exit from the Eurozone, “I personally think ordinary people in Greece have suffered a lot,” said Juncker, “and it would not be advisable to put further demands on them.”

Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras yesterday vowed a new package of cuts worth €11.5 billion ($14bn) would be announced in September.

Samaras travels to Berlin on Friday, where German chancellor Merkel is today meeting French president Hollande to discuss the two-year crisis.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

EUR/USD: Greek Progress and Fed Minutes Strengthen the Euro

Article by AlgosysFx Forex Trading Solutions

The Euro gained versus the US dollar in the previous European trading exchanges after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve policy makers’ meeting earlier this month. Also, optimism that the European Central Bank (ECB) would take action to curb rising Italian and Spanish yields remained, causing the incline of the single currency
versus the Greenback. In today’s European trades, the shared currency is anticipated to sustain gains against the Buck on signs of further monetary easing by the Fed, and still persisting Euro Zone optimism.

Minutes from the latest meeting of the Fed revealed policy makers’ desire to add more stimulus-measures to support the US economy. “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming accommodation pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery,” as stated in the records of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting.

As regards encouraging news in the Euro Zone, Eurogroup Head Jean-Claude Juncker met with Greek Prime Minster Antonis Samaras and expressed backing of the Greek government in its journey to get the economy back on track, while at the same time issuing a friendly warning to the indebted country of its “last chance” to stay in the Euro area. After his meeting with the Greek prime minister, Juncker praised the efforts of the government to implement measures to reduce the nation’s deficit and direct the economy towards the path of recovery.

With such fruitful developments, the Euro is expected to rise versus the Dollar, making a buy position viable in today’s European exchanges.

 

For more news, analysis, technical charts and candlestick analysis, visit AlgosysFx


Forex Daily review- 23.08.2012

Forex Daily review brought to you by REAL FOREX | www.Real-forex.com

Tracking the EUR/USD pair
Date: 22.08.2012   Time: 20:47 Rate: 1.2520
Daily chart
Last Review
The price is looking like breaching the 1.2436 price level and it is possible to assume that its establishment above this level will continue the creating uptrend, while its first target is the closest resistance on the 1.2560 price level. On the other hand, in case the price will go back under the 1.2436 price level will indicate that the range will continue between this level and the 1.2290 price level.
 
Current review for today
The last move upwards continued its way after checking the 1.2436 price level (the shadow of the last candle), if it can be used as a support level. It looks like the price is making its way towards the 1.2560 price level at first stage, while breaching this level is suppose to lead the price towards the next resistance on the 1.2692 price level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area will show that it is possible to see a new range creating between the 1.2436 and the 1.2560 price levels.
 
You can see the chart below:
eur/usd 
 
4 Hour chart
Date: 22.08.2012   Time: 20:54 Rate: 1.2524
Last Review
Indeed the breaking of the 1.2387 price level led the price to a sharp move upwards which reached the target of yesterday’s review on the 1.2444 price level and even breached it. Its closest target at this point is the 1.2517 price level, which was taken from the depth of the range (light blue background) and its throw upwards. It is possible to assume that before reaching the target, the price will perform a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend started on the 1.2290 price level.
 
Current review for today
As we can see, the price has reached our target from yesterday’s review, the ranging target on the 1.2517 price level (Blue broken lines). The continuation of the move upwards will lead the price at first stage to the trend line connecting the last peaks (points 1, 3, 5), and breaching this trend line will continue the move towards the last peak on the 1.2690 price level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area will probably lead the price to a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the move that started from the 1.2290 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
eur/usd 
 
GBP/USD
Date: 22.08.2012   Time: 21:10  Rate: 1.5864
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price has breached the 1.5745 price level which is used as the neck line of the “One in, one out” pattern (blue broken lines), while its target is the 1.5816 price level. It is possible to see that the price has breached the last peak on the 1.5777 price level, at this point the price might perform a correction of the last uptrend which started on the 1.5674 price level and its depth will be in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend.
 
Current review for today
As it can be seen, the price has reached the 1.5816 price level which was given on yesterdays review and even breached it. At this point it looks like the price is making its way to the target of the daily chart (last weekly review) on the 1.6015 price level. It is possible to assume that during the current uptrend we will see a Fibonacci correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started from the 1.5674 price level.
 
You can see the chart below:
gbp/usd 
 
AUD/USD
Date: 22.08.2012   Time: 21:21 Rate: 1.0500
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price has breached the upper lip of the descending price channel (red broken lines), but returns now to check if this trend line can switch positions and be used as a support line. In case it can, breaching the next resistance on the 1.0540 price level will probably lead the price to a continuation of the uptrend towards the last peak of the 1.0613 price level. On the other hand, its return into the descending tunnel and another breaking of the 1.0444 price level will probably lead to a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the uptrend which is locked in the ascending price channel (blue broken line), probably to the area between the 1.0377 and the 1.0232 price levels.
 
Current review for today
The price has descended exactly to the lower lip of the ascending price channel while creating a technical pattern named “Double Bottom” on the 1.0411 price level, by breaching the 1.0540 resistance level, the pattern will lead the price towards the 1.0613 peak level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area and its descending under the lower lip of the ascending price channel will probably lead to a continuation of the downtrend (lower probability).
 
You can see the chart below:
AUD/USD 
 
USD/CHF
Date: 22.08.2012   Time: 21:27 Rate: 0.9595
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price has breached the 0.9700 price level and reached the target from yesterday’s review, the 0.9650 price level. By breaking this level, the price will probably continue towards the next support on the 0.9564 price level, while in first stage it is possible that the price will perform a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend.
 
Current review for today
After breaking the 0.9650 Fibonacci level, the price went up to check if this level can switch positions and be used as a resistance. After checking the mentioned level, the price continued downwards and currently its closest target is the 0.9564 support level while breaking this level will lead the price to the next support on the 0.9513 price level. It is possible to assume that during the mentioned move we will see a correction in size of between a third and two thirds by Fibonacci retracement.
 
You can see the chart below:
USD/CHF 
 
USD/JPY
Date: 22.08.2012   Time: 21:42 Rate: 78.57
4 Hour chart
Last Review
The price is ranging now between the 79.20 and the 79.80 price levels while it is possible to how the Bollinger bands are closing on the price and reducing the volatility. Breaching of the 79.80 price level in a proven way will probably lead towards the last peak on the 80.60 price level. On the other hand, it is possible to see a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started on the 78.15 price level.
 
Current review for today
After a struggling ascending move to the 79.80 price level, the price has fell and retraced the entire move that started from the 78.15 by one candle. It is possible to assume that breaking the trend line which is connecting the lows (black broken line) and closure of the candle under it, will sign the continuation of the downtrend towards its first target on the 77.90 support level, and breaking this level will lead the price towards the last low on the 77.66 price level. Stoppage of the price at the current area will probably continue the ranging period between the 77.94 and the 79.80 price levels.
 
You can see the chart below:
USD/JPY 
 
Important announcements for today:
08.30 (GMT+1) EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
13.30 (GMT+1) USD – Unemployment Claims
15.00 (GMT+1) USD – New Home Sales
 

Market Review 23.8.12

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

Signs that the Fed is preparing to initiate a new round of quantitative easing as early as next month, led to significant gains for higher-yielding currencies last night. The EUR/USD hit a fresh seven-week high, and is currently trading above 1.2560. Crude oil also extended its recent gains and is currently trading at $98.12 a barrel, its highest level since early May.

Main News for Today

German Flash Manufacturing PMI- 07:30 GMT
• Analysts are calling for the PMI to come in at 43.5, slightly higher than last month’s 43.0
• If the indicator comes in below the forecasted level, the euro could reverse some of its recent gains

US Unemployment Claims- 12:30 GMT
• The number of people filing for unemployment in the US has come in below expectations for the last four weeks
• If the figure comes in below the expected 365K today, the dollar could see gains against the yen during mid-day trading

US New Home Sales- 14:00 GMT
• Analysts are forecasting today’s news to show growth in the US real estate sector
• If the new home sales figure comes in at or above the forecasted 363K, the dollar could reverse some of its recent losses

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Dollar Drops as FOMC Minutes Increase Stimulus Prospects

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The US dollar dropped against most of its major peers after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes showed that majority of the members are willing to step up and make record stimulus if the data coming in from the US does not indicate growth in the economy. The greenback dropped for the fourth day as Charles Evans, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, insisted on his case for additional monetary easing. The US currency slid to seven-week low against the euro after the minutes were released. Euro’s advance was limited as the market is waiting for the release of the purchasing managers’ indexes for services and manufacturing for the region.

Hans Kunnen, the Chief Economist in Sydney at St. George Bank Ltd, said the FOMC meeting minutes and the speculation of third round of quantitative easing have led to the dollar’s decline. He also noted that the FOMC minutes have a bigger effect on the euro-dollar pair than the PMIs from euro area; hence he expects a strong euro despite the PMIs. Similarly, Steven Saywell, a Currency Strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London said that the minutes were dovish and consistent with the market speculation. He added that the dollar weakness will continue through the Asia trading session. John Silvia, the Chief Economist in Charlotte at Wells Fargo Securities LLC indicated that the Fed is closer to making QE3, but was quick to add that this might happen in October rather than September.

The dollar has dropped by 0.1 percent against the euro to trade at $1.2539 during the Tokyo trading session; it had earlier touched $1.2553, the weakest it has been since July 4. The dollar was little changed against the yen, trading at 78.55 after the release. The euro increased against the yen to trade at 98.51, after dropping by 0.4 percent to exchange at 98.45 yesterday. This is the currency’s biggest drop since August 10.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
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It’s About Freedom of Speech: What if We Couldn’t Write to You Anymore?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

My old pal, Dan Denning, wrote a great article in yesterday’s Daily Reckoning on media regulation and freedom of speech. If you haven’t seen it you can click here to read it now.

In it, Dan takes a stab at an article by the federal MP for Bendigo, Steve Gibbons.

In short, Mr Gibbons says the press isn’t living up to the right standards.

Mr Gibbons writes:

‘But participatory democracy only works if the people are given sufficient, accurate information about an issue for them to make up their own minds what they think about it.’

That sounds innocent enough. But there are some real problems buried in his language. For a start, who judges what’s accurate? Who judges what’s sufficient? Who determines the difference between information and opinion?

These are complicated questions about editorial judgment. And they’re important questions, even for a financial newsletter…perhaps especially for a financial newsletter. So we’ll have more on this in a moment, including an error of judgement that would shame even the laziest journalist. But first…

Before we go on, a quick note on the market. We won’t spend too much time on it, because frankly, not much has changed.

But we’re sure you’ve noticed that gold took off like a rocket last night. It was on the back of comments in the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s latest meeting:

‘Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of economic recovery.’

In other words, you can bet your house on the Fed either printing money or fiddling with interest rates…again.

Of course, we can’t give you a 100% guarantee that it will happen. All we can do is look at history and learn from what it teaches us. And what we’ve learnt is that politicians and central bankers love nothing more than manipulating economies and wreaking havoc…causing most harm to those they claim they’re trying to help.

This brings us back to where we began. Today we can write fairly freely about the bad things done by the bad people in power.

But unlike Americans, Australians don’t have a constitutional right to freedom of speech or freedom of expression.

That’s what makes Mr Gibbons’ comments troubling.

A Government Jackboot to the Face of the Free Press

In a free press, editors and journalists make decisions every day. But ultimately, it’s the consumers of the news who decide, based on what they read and what they buy, who’s doing the best job.

Mr Gibbons doesn’t appear to be happy with this consensual, voluntary state of affairs when it comes to information and ideas. It seems he believes the government should be the final referee of what’s published and broadcast.

If that isn’t a slap in the face for free speech, we don’t know what is. In fact, it’s more like a jackboot to the face.

To back up his argument, he says:

‘It’s no surprise, therefore, that Australian journalists are consistently ranked among the least honest and ethical professions in the annual Roy Morgan reputation survey.’

That may be true. Your editor certainly isn’t a fan of the Aussie mainstream media. We’ve often accused them of cosying up to vested interests, politicians and bureaucrats.

But in terms of honesty and ethics, Mr Gibbons probably should have checked the latest Roy Morgan Reputation Survey a little closer before he decided to put politicians in charge of journalists. The mistake he made is something even the laziest journalist would have picked up.

Any journalist worth their salt will always check their sources. And in many cases they won’t go ahead with a story until they have at least two confirmed sources. The mainstream media even employs folks to fact-check the journalists’ work, to make sure the journo isn’t just making stuff up.

But there’s another reason to check sources. To make sure someone can’t use the quote you’ve used against you. That’s not so much ethics as, well, common sense. For instance, you wouldn’t want to quote a source that turns out to say the opposite to what you claim.

That’s why we think Mr Gibbons should have made the effort to check out the latest Roy Morgan Reputation Survey. While it’s true that Australian journalists have a low honesty and ethics score, there are six professions with worse honesty and ethics scores (the lower the number, the less honest and ethical):

The Least Trusted Professions in Australia

The Least Trusted Professions in Australia

Have a close look at the chart. As you’ll see, the public thinks federal MPs are less honest and ethical than newspaper journalists.

What’s more, the public thinks pollies are only marginally more honest and ethical than real estate agents and advertising people!

Oh dear. Perhaps we should have a body that monitors and regulates MPs. Maybe we should fine, tar, and feather politicians when they make dishonest or unethical statements.

But it doesn’t seem to occur to Mr Gibbons that someone could turn his comments against him. He thunders on obliviously:

‘I also suggest that the vast majority of the public are thoroughly fed-up with so-called political commentary that degenerates into vicious and hurtful personal attacks. Commercial radio shock-jocks are notable offenders in this area.’

‘Suggest’ must be a scientific term for, ‘I’m going to speak on behalf of the Australian public in order to make the point I want, without any other proof.’

Yet according to the Roy Morgan numbers, it seems that most people don’t agree with Mr Gibbons. According to the survey, ‘talk-back radio announcers’ score much higher than federal MPs, at 17.

As you know, we don’t normally comment on political matters. It makes us feel dirty. And besides, this is an investing newsletter, not a political newsletter. But in this case we feel it’s important to make sure you’re aware of what’s happening.

If the federal government ploughs ahead with the Finkelstein Review’s recommendations, it could have a serious impact on what and how we write to you.

It could mean that if someone takes offence or disagrees with something we write, they could report Money Morning to the new government-appointed panel, where the onus would be on us to show that we’re not guilty.

In other words, guilty until proven innocent.

The Chilling Threat to Freedom of Speech

This would certainly have a chilling effect on the publication of ideas that challenge conventional thinking. And if we happen to offend someone – say a vested interest – the government gets to determine the rightness of our ideas, rather than the consumer of those ideas.

The freedom of speech to discuss ideas openly, even when they offend or upset the sensibilities of other people, is the bedrock of an open society. If the government proceeds with the recommendations in the Finkelstein Review, it could lead to less diversity in the ideas you read online every day.

Can you imagine a world where a government-appointed body gets to sit in judgement on our forecasts, opinions, and ideas about Australia’s investment future?

Will we still be able to predict the collapse of the fiat money system, highlight the fragility of the banking system, and warn you about the latest investment bubble?

The trouble is, you have no idea how an unelected board will behave once it’s in power. And by then, it’s too late to object. If asked, it’s difficult to prove that our ideas are right. We can’t prove that a bubble will burst until it bursts. And we can’t prove the dangers of fiat money and fragile banking systems until both have collapsed.

All we can do is use logic and the experiences of history to argue our point. But that may not be enough to satisfy a government-appointed body.

If you think we’re exaggerating the threat or making sweeping generalisations about a little sensible regulation, then please read the next line closely. When governments start fearing the press and free speech you know that things are heading in one direction – towards tyranny.

It’s not the obligation of free people to prove they can use freedom responsibly. Freedom of speech is a natural right. Once you concede that there is a role for unelected bureaucrats to determine what people can and can’t say or publish in Australia, you’ve ceased to be a free person.

As John Basil Barnhill wrote, in 1914:

‘Where the people fear the government you have tyranny. Where the government fears the people you have liberty.’

At the moment, as far as media freedom goes, the government fears the people. It fears that the people or the press may say things the government doesn’t like.

That’s good. It shows there still is at least a small amount of liberty in Australia.

Stop Government Violence

But if the government adopts the Finkelstein Review, the opposite will be true. The people will fear the government, and that means adding freedom of speech to the victim list of government tyrannies.

People fear getting their tax return wrong…they fear not voting…they fear not taking out private health insurance…they fear driving after drinking alcohol. Get on the wrong side of the government and you can easily find yourself locked up in jail.

Government by its very nature is a violent construct.

And soon enough, if the government adopts the Finkelstein Review, if you write something the government doesn’t like – even on a personal blog – the government could fine you and send you to jail too.

Bottom line: tyranny is upon you unless you can stop it.

The threat from seemingly benign and bumbling ideas like those put forward by Mr Gibbons deserve to be taken seriously, and then treated with scorn and disdain. If you don’t take them seriously, and you don’t speak up now, it will be too late to say anything later.

Cheers,
Kris

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Things Are Looking Up for Gold

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Today I’d like to talk to you about gold. Because despite the worsening situation in Europe, gold has been decidedly downbeat since last summer’s dash to $1,920. And I suspect that many people are beginning to lose interest.

I think that is a huge mistake.

Recently gold has broken out of its short-term trading range and there are some big buyers appearing on the scene. Hedge fund managers George Soros and John Paulson have both recently upped their exposure to old yella.

But perhaps more importantly, China has adopted a more aggressive stance towards gold. Two Chinese state owned companies have been circling London-listed African Barrick Gold. And I think that’s an important development.

Today I’ll explain why and how you could profit from it.

China Has a Cash Problem

Emerging market countries may have little wealth. But they have something much better, and that is the means of creating wealth. Even as the global economy turns down, countries like China are still raking in dollars from international trade. In fact, one of their biggest problems is finding a safe place to stash their spoils.

Where are they going to stash that wealth?

Well it won’t be in Western currencies. Chinese officials are painfully aware of what we, in the West, are doing to our currencies. Their appetite for US Treasury bills is waning too.

But gold? Well they can’t get enough of it. China recognise gold is the only financial asset without a liability attached. It’s not dependent on any vacuous promises made by Western politicians.

The trouble is that the gold market is small. China can’t simply buy the stuff in the market because the price would fly and they’d soon find themselves priced out.

So China has to find another way of satisfying its voracious appetite for gold. And the way they’ve done that is by mining the stuff. According to Grant Sporr, of Deutsche Bank “China is currently the largest producer of gold at 11.9 million ounces in 2011…”

Not only does China mine a lot of gold, they also keep a tight hold of it once it’s out of the ground. But they’re not content. That’s why they’ve been sniffing around looking to buy more mine capacity overseas. That brings us to Africa…

Buying Gold Miners Could Be a Great Business

China has the biggest currency reserves in the world, but their gold holdings are pretty insignificant. According to the World Gold Council (2010 figures), the EU has nearly 16,000 tonnes; the US over 8,000 tonnes, while China has a trifling 1,000 tonnes. China needs to catch up.

They can do that by buying mines. By doing that, they’ll also avoid bidding up the price of gold. And that’s a fantastic benefit for China. If they can lock into African gold in the ground at today’s gold prices, all they need to do is get the stuff out of the ground and they could be building their gold holdings for years to come.

I’ve previously argued that the gold miners are cheap. Today, most of the large miners are trading on earnings multiples in the low teens. I’ve not seen them this cheap before.

So what’s the best way into gold?

I’m often asked this question.

And it’s a tough question to answer. There are loads of things to consider. If you’re in it to diversify your pot away from the financial system, then undoubtedly physical possession of gold coins or bars can’t be beaten – providing you’ve got somewhere safe to stash it, that is.

Any other holding introduces counter-party risk. It may be that this risk is small – for instance, allocated gold (where your name is registered against physical gold) in theory is just like holding physical.

Many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also claim to hold physical gold – and serious players like hedge fund managers George Soros and John Paulson have recently upped their stakes in popular US gold ETFs.

Gold Miners Look Seriously Cheap

In many ways ETFs take much of the hassle out of owning physical gold. But there are other considerations. Considerations like squeezing a return out of gold. Because it’s true, gold pays no interest and no dividend.

But many gold miners do. And to my mind the miners are cheap at the moment. In a rising gold market (which I expect to see again very soon), the miners can rise faster. That’s because they’ve got ‘operational gearing’… so long as their production costs rise by less than the gold price increase, they can produce leveraged returns on the gold price.

But bear in mind, though the miners can do better than the bullion price they can certainly do worse too. I’ve had my fingers burned on the miners over the past year. Though they looked cheap, they got even cheaper.

But recently the tide seems to have turned. No doubt, the aggressive Chinese stance will also help lift sentiment in the sector. And remember, if the deal goes through to buy African Barrick, it’ll likely mean that its production will now head to China. That means less supply for everyone else.

I’d say things are looking up for gold. And gold miners could be just the ticket.

Bengt Saelensminde
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that first appeared in The Right Side.

From the Archives…

A Housing Bubble…Upon Bubble…Upon Bubble
17-08-2012 – Nick Hubble

How Government Extortion is Happening Right Before Our Eyes
16-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Are Gold Stocks About to Turn?
15-08-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Amazing Ethanol Scam in the USA
14-08-2012 – Jeffrey Tucker

Why I’ve Done a U-Turn on Solar Energy
13-08-2012 – Kris Sayce


Things Are Looking Up for Gold

Is it Time to Snap Up Irish Property?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The tale of Ireland’s spectacular property boom and bust is well known. The Irish countryside is littered with half-finished properties – a legacy of the times when Irish banks would lend to seemingly anyone.

Little wonder that Irish property prices have halved since 2007 and fallen further than in any other Western economy since the financial crisis. However, things may at last be starting to change.

The Economist claims that the ratio of prices to incomes and rents are both below their long-term averages and that house prices may be up to 5% undervalued in Ireland. Meanwhile, the Irish Independent reports that professional buyers are starting to circle the market.

So should you also be thinking of buying bombed-out Irish property?

You Can’t Trust the Government

There are rumours swirling of wealthy overseas investors circling the Irish market, drawn over in part by the promise of tax breaks. But cash-strapped governments can’t really be trusted.

Torn between a desire to get their economies kick-started (which suggests tax breaks) and claw back debt (which involves hammering wealthy property owners), they can change the tax rules at any moment. Irish property owners – especially second property owners – make a tempting target.

Back in 2009, the Irish government introduced a new tax on non-principal private residences. Since then it has made concessions on capital gains tax (CGT) and stamp duty. Now it looks as though the capital gains tax rules will change again in 2013.

And it’s not just the Irish government that is unpredictable. In December last year, Italy introduced new property taxes as did Greece. So tread carefully as a property investor – what looks like a bargain one minute may come back to bite you from a tax perspective the next.

Ireland’s Economic Fundamentals Remain Grim

In any case, a tax break is only part of the story. There are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the Irish economy. While Ireland has been praised for bouncing back from the worst of the financial crisis, GDP is still well below its 2007 peak.

The Economist Intelligence Unit thinks that it may take over four years to get back to pre-crash levels. The latest GDP figures even suggest that it is starting to slip back into recession, with growth negative in the first three months of this year.

As long as Ireland remains in the euro, the government’s options are very limited. It can’t unilaterally cut interest rates or embark on money printing like, say, the British or American governments.

Further, tax rises and/or spending cuts look likely. This is all bad news for Irish consumers. They may want to take advantage of cheaper housing prices, but against this backdrop, and with banks still reluctant to lend, most can’t.

There is also the question of the huge number of households at risk of losing their homes. Brokerage firm Davy thinks that as many as 16.5% of mortgages are in arrears – and this number may be rising. With unemployment at 14.8% many of these debtors have no hope of repaying their debts.

And thanks to various bank bail-out deals, the government effectively holds a lot of unsold and repossessed properties on its books. Its plan to get rid of them gradually may prevent any immediate price fall. However, the sales, which are not expected to finish by 2020, could keep prices suppressed for years.

Little wonder the ratings agency Moody’s thinks that prices could fall by a further 20%. While this may be a little extreme, we think that the risks to the downside make Irish property a poor investment for now.

Other Property Investment Bargains in Europe?

As for the rest of the peripheral eurozone countries (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), they suffer from much of the same supply-side problems as Ireland, with huge levels of arrears.

There is also the question of property as an immobile asset. Many high-earners can avoid high taxes by getting on a plane and moving to a different country. Money and investments in bank accounts can also be moved across borders very quickly. The same cannot be done for bricks and mortar. So while many investors may like the look of cheaper property, many will be put off by its relative illiquidity.

This also makes it an easy target for cash-strapped governments. Both Spain and Italy have increased property taxes in the past year. Cash strapped regions can also try to squeeze homeowners. This is a particular problem with Spanish property where local governments can set taxes on property values based on pre-crash prices rather than sale prices.

In most markets right now, instead of buying European property, you should look at shares instead. The crisis has made several markets, especially those in the Italian and Spanish real estate market, good value.

Matthew Partridge
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek (UK)

From the Archives…

A Housing Bubble…Upon Bubble…Upon Bubble
17-08-2012 – Nick Hubble

How Government Extortion is Happening Right Before Our Eyes
16-08-2012 – Kris Sayce

Are Gold Stocks About to Turn?
15-08-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Amazing Ethanol Scam in the USA
14-08-2012 – Jeffrey Tucker

Why I’ve Done a U-Turn on Solar Energy
13-08-2012 – Kris Sayce


Is it Time to Snap Up Irish Property?