Japanese Home Construction Expecting Sharp Plummet

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

This morning’s early publication of Japanese housing starts portrayed a capital economy in deep contraction heading into the end of 2011. Housing starts are an indicator of the number of private homes starting construction, making it an early gauge of domestic capital investment and early consumer spending and optimism.

The indicator was expected to show a modest uptick of approximately 8.3% this month. The shocking 10.8% contraction in housing starts has riled several large investors. The Japanese yen (JPY) was trading with mixed results as a consequence and some are wondering what impact this will have on yen values as the year comes to a close.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

German Retail Sales Underperforming

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

The euro zone continues to struggle with economic data heading into the fourth quarter of 2011. This morning’s publication of Germany’s retail sales revealed even more sluggish growth in the region’s largest economy.

The report was expected to show a healthy month-on-month growth of 1.1%, a solid uptick from last month’s 2.7% contraction. The actual reading, while far better than last month’s, was still shy of the mark with only 0.4% growth being reported. The impact has been a mild downward tug on the EUR since the data’s release.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Swiss KOF Barometer in Decline

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

This morning’s publication of Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer revealed an economic outlook that has dipped somewhat since last month’s reading. A combination of economic indicators is now portraying economic conditions slightly more pessimistically than before.

The measure only fell by approximately 0.2 points from 1.00 to 0.80, a measure that still falls within optimist territory, but only slightly. The Swiss economy has fared relatively well over the last several years, only recently falling from a gouging effect brought on by an artificially strong currency.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Aussie and Kiwi Tumble as Stocks Fall

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Australian and New Zealand dollars fell from their two-month high registered yesterday as stocks in the world market fell. The demand for riskier assets reduced as investors await the ECB and BOE rate decisions scheduled to be announced later today. The kiwi reversed it two-day advance against the yen before reports that may indicate a drop in the German Factory orders. Further, the south pacific currencies dropped as economists predict the least advance in US payrolls in more than two years. However, investors will also be waiting to hear what Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan has to say about trading the Chinese currency and the Aussie next week.

Explaining the decline, Robert Rennie, the Chief Currency Strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp said that the issues affecting global economy will keep the Australian dollar on the low for the short term. In addition, the kiwi and Aussie fell as MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 0.2 percent after gaining for the last six days. Speculation that factory orders in Germany may have declined by 6 percent and the fears that US employers added only 90,000 employees last month have contributed to the fall of the two south pacific dollars.

The Australian dollar fell by 0.1 percent against the US dollar to trade at $1.0264 at the close of trading in Sydney after it had touched its highest since May 3 yesterday of $1.0320. The Aussie dropped by 0.3 percent against the yen to trade at 81.87 yen. Likewise, the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.1 percent against the US dollar to trade at 80.30 US cents and declined by 0.2 percent against the yen to exchange at 64.06 yen.

Australian treasurer Wayne Swan said that the government is taking measures to enhance yuan-Aussie trade as China is the country’s larger trading partner.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Bank of England keeps rate steady, boosts bond buying

By Central Bank News
    The Bank of England maintained its official bank rate at 0.5 percent but boosted the size of its bond purchase program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion, as widely expected.
    The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee said the combination of its recent, and prospective, expansion of lending schemes to ease tight liquidity in the banking system and continued stimulus from past policy measures should help the economy gradually strengthen.
    “But against the background of continuing tight credit conditions and fiscal consolidation, the increased drag from the heightened tensions within the euro area meant that, without additional monetary stimulus, it was more likely than not that inflation would undershoot the target in the medium term,” the bank said in a statement.

    The UK economy has barely expanded for the last 1-1/2 years and is estimated to have contracted in the last six months. Indicators point to continued UK and foreign weakness and despite recent progress by European politicians in addressing structural problems, confidence remains weak.
      “The correspondingly weaker outlook for UK output growth means that the margin of economic slack is likely to be greater and more persistent,” the bank said, noting the recent decline in inflation to an annual rate of 2.8 percent in May and declining commodity prices.
    “Given the continuing drag from economic slack, that should ensure inflation continues to ease into the medium term,” the bank said. The BoE targets inflation of 2.0 percent and inflation has been above that target since December 2009.
    The BoE last cut its rate to the current 0.5 percent by 50 basis points in March 2009, when it also began purchasing bonds to keep interest rates low and add funds to the UK economy. In February the size of the asset purchase program was raised by 50 billion pounds to 325 billion.
    www.CentralBankNews.info





Malaysia keeps interest rate steady at 3.0%

By Central Bank News

    Malaysia’s central bank kept its benchmark Overnigh Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.0 percent, as widely expected, noting the uncertain global economic and financial environment.
    Bank Negara Malaysia said after a meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee that pressures in international financial markets had receded following the recent policy decisions in the euro area, but a number of important issues remain unresolved and continue to unsettle markets.
    “The MPC will continue to carefully assess these evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook for inflation and growth of the Malaysian economy,” the bank said in a statement.

    Consumption and investment in Malaysia remains resilient and domestic demand will be an anchor of growth while inflation is expected to remain moderate for the rest of this year due to excess capacity in the economy.
    “Global energy and commodity prices are likely to be contained given the weak global conditions.  However, upside risks to inflation could emerge should disruptions to global supply result in higher global prices for these commodities,” the bank said.
    www.CentralBankNews.info

ECB and BOE Moves May Signal the Start of a Zero-rate Era

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to signal the start of a zero-rate era, as they move to shove their respective economies to growth. The market has seen an increased number of central banks around the world cutting interest rates as the global economy continues to worsen. The BOE and ECB officials will be making their rate decisions later today where major changes are expected.

The ECB is expected to push its interest rate further down by 0.25 percent to register a new low record since the currency was started. The central bank is also expected to drop its deposit rate to zero as it seeks ways to prevent further economic deterioration in the region. In UK, Mervyn King is expected to push for an expansion of the BOE’s bond purchases target by 50 billion pounds as efforts to prevent further deterioration in the country’s economy.

JPMorgan Chase & Co which has announced a decreased interest rate of about 0.5 has indicated that major central banks have resulted into frantic measure to prevent possible crisis. According to Joseph Lupton of JPMorgan in New York a large part of the world’s economy have stagnated forcing central banks to engage easing measures. Central banks in US, China and Australia which acted last month and they are set to be joined by the ECB and BOE as the former is predicted to lower interest rates at 1:45 PM today; BOE will announce its monetary policy at noon in London today.

According to Joseph Lupton, the debt crisis in Europe is the major reason most of these banks are making these adjustments. He also added that most of the central banks in the developed countries will miss their inflation targets by the end of the year.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?

By MoneyMorning.com.au

I don’t often get to write to you about my market views, so I thought I’d quickly point out that I think this market rally will soon meet some pretty stiff resistance. In fact, I am getting pretty excited by the fact that the European summit managed to create a big short covering rally which has taken equities right back up into the sell zone.

The S+P 500 is of particular interest to me at the moment.

Emini S+P 500 Futures Daily Chart

Emini S+P 500 Futures Daily Chart
Click here to enlarge

Source: Slipstream Trader

If you have a look at the above chart (the best idea is to open it in the browser and refer to it in full size), you can see that the current price action is almost a mirror image of what we saw last year.

In 2011 the initial sell-off from ‘X’ went to retest the 200 day moving average where support was found. The market then turned and rallied from ‘A’ to ‘B’ which was the 73.4% retracement of the whole sell-off from ‘X’.

This market rally was a short squeeze that would have taken many ‘short’ traders out of their positions. Stiff resistance was met at ‘B’ and the market turned and began its plunge. It snapped under the 200 day moving average and fell 20% in two weeks.

The current market rally is now heading towards the 73.4% retracement level at 1380 in the futures. 1373 is also the high made last year in early May 2011.

If you look at the indicator at the bottom of the chart, which is the percentage that the price is above and below the 35 day moving average, you can see that the market is entering the risky 3-5% above the 35 day moving average band (the solid blue lines) where it will often find stiff resistance in a downtrend as it did last year (I have circled the areas to look at in the indicator).

On Friday we have the release of US employment numbers. Expectations are for a fairly weak 90,000 additions. Perhaps that release will be the catalyst for this market rally to meet its use-by date, right in the major sell zone that I have been discussing.

If so it will be the best risk/reward opportunity of the year. With a potential 20% downside to come, there is the chance to make a lot of bickies if you can get onto it. Easier said than done, but it is certainly worth having a go.

Murray Dawes
Editor, Slipstream Trader

Related Articles

Market Pullback Exposes Five Stocks to Buy

The Interest Rate Banana Your Stocks Will Slip On

‘Big Wednesday’ For the Aussie Dollar


Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?

LIBOR: When Bankers Try to Shift the Blame

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Stop press! Bankers found to be liars! Shock, horror. What is the world coming to?

The growing news story in relation to the collusion by bankers to fix the LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) is one well worth keeping an eye on. As the rats jump from the ship they are sure to bring others down with them. We may finally get a peek inside the inner workings of the financial system.

Perhaps the general public will finally realise what a hoax it really is. Anyone who works in the markets should not be too surprised to hear that Barclays et al. have been lying about the rates that they can borrow at.

Continue reading “LIBOR: When Bankers Try to Shift the Blame”

How Progress Came From the Free Market

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Yesterday we included a quote from Paul Howes, complimenting the South Korean government on their foresight on throwing billions into developing the brand ‘Samsung’.

But Howes, like many statists and central planners have made a common mistake. They wrongly credit economic and human progress with the increased role of government during the past 200 years.

In reality, they’ve put the cart before the horse. It’s not the gradual increases in government intervention that spurred progress. What spurred progress was the end of Europe’s feudal system of government, and the discovery of the New World and free markets.

18th century French writer Voltaire wrote of the feudal state that it was ‘a device for taking money out of one set of pockets and putting it into another.’

Sound familiar?

So it’s no coincidence that, as feudalism ended and individuals gained more freedom, human progress finally took off. It was like a coiled spring waiting to be sprung…a jack-in-the-box with the lid forced shut, until suddenly the promise of freedom and opportunity beckoned.

But for centuries there was no freedom or social mobility.

Kings ruled their kingdom, and occasionally kings fought with other kings, or fought with princes who grew impatient of waiting to become kings.

Lords of the manor ruled their vast landed estates… land assigned to them by the king or wrestled from other Lords or handed down through generations. For centuries the land was unimproved and unexploited – no factories, no productive labour force…just gardens, lakes and follies.

Beneath them were the merchants and tradesmen. The buyers and sellers of goods and the makers of goods. The men who passed on both name and occupation to their children: Carpenter, Cooper, Baker, Smith, Butcher and many others.

At the bottom came those who were little more than slaves…the serfs. They grew crops for the Lords and were allowed to keep enough food for subsistence living.

Everyone knew their place. There was no social mobility. Serfs didn’t become merchants or tradesmen. Merchants or tradesmen didn’t become Lords. Lords didn’t become kings.

There was no progress or improvement in the standard of living because no-one knew the concept of wanting to do better for themselves.

Bottom line: There was no incentive for anyone to do more than was necessary to maintain their current standard of living.

The Rise of the Entrepreneur

Yet gradually, human spirit prevailed. As the saying goes, ‘You can’t keep a good man down.’

But by the 17th and early 18th centuries, people that we would today call the middle class began to think there was more to life than knowing their place.

The spring had sprung, and there was no going back.

Now, we’re certainly not saying that these ‘middle classes’ were freedom fighters. They didn’t fight against the established systems in order to achieve universal suffrage.

And remember, revolutions are rarely begun by the working class or poor. They mostly begin when those who seek more power, or grow tired of not having it.

So, they fought out of self-interest. But it also drew in those who saw the opportunity to perhaps do something no-one else had ever done – the opportunity to rise above their station.

Within a generation plain old ‘middle class’ merchants and tradesmen became entrepreneurs.

Perhaps the first modern entrepreneurs. They saw the opportunities that economic freedom (or at least relatively more freedom) could offer and they took advantage of it.

And the effect didn’t take long. Progress began to march further ahead as the Industrial Revolution took hold in England and then throughout Europe.

The steam engine…the spinning jenny…iron foundries…manufacturing…machine tools… chemical discoveries…gas, glass, and agriculture machinery.

The list goes on.

None of it, not one jot of these innovations, inventions and improvements was created by an act of parliament or ministerial decree.

They were created by entrepreneurs, through trial and error. Those who trialled and got it right are remembered centuries later: Michael Faraday, James Watt and George Stephenson.

Those who trialled and failed have been forgotten. And yet their presence and efforts are just as important, because without failure there isn’t success and there isn’t progress.

The Industrial Revolution was a creation of human activity and ingenuity. It certainly wasn’t about governments picking winners.

In fact, when the bureaucrats do try to create innovations by legislation, it’s usually a disaster.

For instance, take the Longitude Act of 1714.

It was passed by the U.K. parliament in that year. The aim was to solve the problem of calculating longitude while at sea. The difficulty of making this calculation is seen in a letter from Amerigo Vespucci, a 15th century explorer

‘As to longitude, I declare that I found so much difficulty in determining it that I was put to great pains to ascertain the east-west distance I had covered. The final result of my labours was that I found nothing better to do than to watch for and take observations at night of the conjunction of one planet with another, and especially of the conjunction of the moon with the other planets, because the moon is swifter in her course than any other planet. I compared my observations with an almanac.

After I had made experiments many nights, one night, the twenty-third of August 1499, there was a conjunction of the moon with Mars, which according to the almanac was to occur at midnight or a half hour before. I found that…at midnight Mars’s position was three and a half degrees to the east.’

That’s a lot of effort.

Eventually, the U.K. created the Board of Longitude to solve the problem. It was created in 1714 by an Act of Parliament. But it wasn’t until 1773 that the Board finally recognized the work of John Harrison and his marine chronometer…14 years after Harrison had proved that his design worked.

Yet still, when anything goes wrong in an economy, the people and the press turn to the State for help.

Investing in a Free Market

But it’s not the slow creep of increased government powers that created so much wealth and progress from the 18th century onwards. Instead it was the end of centuries of human oppression and the reduction in government involvement.

That’s the story of progress and success. Not dim-witted bureaucrats, unionists and politicians trying to pick winners.

But ultimately, although it may not always seem like it, we’re positive about the future. This is simply because we believe that, in the end, human spirit and the urge to be free will always overcome oppression and control by the State.

That’s a world we want to live in, and it’s also a world we want to invest in. We hope you do too.

In this coming issue of Australian Small-Cap Investigator, we’re researching the stocks that we believe have the most to gain from a shift away from central planning and back towards more open and free markets.

Kris Sayce
Editor, Money Morning

From the Archives…

The Hard Lesson of a Stock Trader: No Pain, No Gain
2012-06-29 – Kris Sayce

How Gold Prices Look Set to Climb As Banks Crumble
2012-06-28 – Peter Krauth

‘Big Wednesday’ For the Aussie Dollar
2012-06-27 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Three Reasons Why Silver Could Take Off in 2012
2012-06-26 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Who is Winning the Battle Between the Bulls and Bears?
2012-06-25 – Kris Sayce


How Progress Came From the Free Market