Technical Analysis: USD/CHF

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The USD/CHF started last week at 0.9498 and declined to 0.9484 before rising to a high of 0.9784 above the resistance line of 0.9783. It then decreased a bit to close the week at 0.9769 more than three cents above. With few Swiss events this week the pair will probably remain on a downward trend.

This week, the Swiss unemployment rate will be released on Monday. This event does not show much movement from month to month. The June reading was at 3.2 percent and it is expected to remain the same for July. The Swiss PPI will be released on Friday at 0715 hrs GMT; the inflation for the country has been below zero for the last two readings which indicates weakness in the manufacturing sector. For July, this trend is expected to change with an increase of 0.3 percent.

Some of the technical lines that are in consideration for the pair include the strongest resistance at 1.0368. The last time for this line to be tested was in August 2010 when the Franc dropped sharply. The next resistance line is at 1.0220 which is followed further down by 1.0136. This line has been firm since September 2010. Next, the November 2010 resistance line at 1.0066 may be tested if the franc weakens.

Parity is the resistance line that has been strong throughout and it gives way to the resistance at 0.9915. The 0.9783 resistance is weak and was tested last week, it has been firm since January but it will be tested again if the dollar continues with its advance.

The 0.9719 has been supportive and has been breached as the pair headed upward. The 0.9584 support has strengthened as the pair is trading at higher levels. The support level of 0.9510 has seen some action in the last two weeks and has turned to a strong support line. Support levels of 0.9412, 0.9317, have been firm in May.

Technical Analysis: USD/CHF

The USD/CHF started last week at 0.9498 and declined to 0.9484 before rising to a high of 0.9784 above the resistance line of 0.9783. It then decreased a bit to close the week at 0.9769 more than three cents above. With few Swiss events this week the pair will probably remain on a downward trend.

This week, the Swiss unemployment rate will be released on Monday. This event does not show much movement from month to month. The June reading was at 3.2 percent and it is expected to remain the same for July. The Swiss PPI will be released on Friday at 0715 hrs GMT; the inflation for the country has been below zero for the last two readings which indicates weakness in the manufacturing sector. For July, this trend is expected to change with an increase of 0.3 percent.

Some of the technical lines that are in consideration for the pair include the strongest resistance at 1.0368. The last time for this line to be tested was in August 2010 when the Franc dropped sharply. The next resistance line is at 1.0220 which is followed further down by 1.0136. This line has been firm since September 2010. Next, the November 2010 resistance line at 1.0066 may be tested if the franc weakens.

Parity is the resistance line that has been strong throughout and it gives way to the resistance at 0.9915. The 0.9783 resistance is weak and was tested last week, it has been firm since January but it will be tested again if the dollar continues with its advance.

The 0.9719 has been supportive and has been breached as the pair headed upward. The 0.9584 support has strengthened as the pair is trading at higher levels. The support level of 0.9510 has seen some action in the last two weeks and has turned to a strong support line. Support levels of 0.9412, 0.9317, have been firm in May.

 

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Major Forex Events This Week

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Despite the encouraging ADP Nonfarm Payrolls indicator showing an unexpected gain in jobs, the official US Nonfarm Payrolls gained less than the market was expecting. An increase of 80,000 jobs was registered against a market estimate of 90,000 jobs. However, this disappointing result did not raise unemployment rate which remained at 8.2 percent. The BOE and ECB rate decision are other events last week that had the most impact on the market. Here is a look at some of the major events to look out for this week.

Sunday 8

Japan Current Account Index will be released at 2350 hrs where an expansion of 0.42T in surplus is expected. Japanese exports have continued to weaken and it has affected the GDP and balance surplus. However, the domestic demand has given the economy relief as it grows stronger. This will be an event that will affect the yen/dollar pair during as the week starts.

Monday 9

At 1230hrs, the ECB President Mario Draghi will make a speech in Brussels where he is expected to discuss the ECD rate decision and he will also touch on Greece and Spain.

Wednesday 11

The US Trade Balance report will be released at 1230 hours GMT. Previous report in April showed a contraction in US trade deficit to $50.1 billion. This was attributed to the slower imports due to the faltering US economy. Further, exports were also affected by the deteriorating economic conditions in China and Europe. Further contraction to 48.6 billion is expected.

Another report on this day will be the US FOMC Meeting Minutes which will be released at 1800hrs. The last meeting held resulted to extension of operation twist. The minutes are expected to reveal the internal discussions that went on during the meeting and they might provide hints on whether a third round of quantitative easing is possible.

Thursday 12

At 0130hrs, the market will receive the Australian employment data. The Australian economy has been impressive, adding 38,900 jobs in May after it added 7000 in April. However, there has been a sudden increase in the unemployment rate to 5.1 percent. The market expects the data to show a small job increment of 300, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.2 percent. On the same day, the Japanese rate decision will be known after a two day BOJ meeting which will start on July 11 and end on July 12. It is expected that the rate will remain unchanged. The US Unemployment Claims will be released at 1230 while the US Federal Budget Balance will be known at 1800 hrs.

Friday 13

US Producer Price Index will be announced at 1230 hrs.  The PPI for finished goods dropped in May to 1.0 percent after a 0.2 decline in April. It is estimated that a decline of 0.5 percent will be announced this time. UoM Consumer Sentiments from the US will close the week where a decline to 73.5 is expected.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Real-Forex Daily review- 10.07.2012

Daily Market Analysis by Real-Forex

 

EUR/USD

Date: 09.07.2012   Time: 19:18  Rate: 1.2311

 

Daily chart

The price in its breaking of the 1.2346 price level, has reached the last low at the 1.2290 price level and at this point we can see a stoppage of the price. Breaking the low of the last candle will probably lead the price towards the 1.2170 area (more about it in the 4 hour chart review). On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area will indicate that it is possible to see a technical correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the downtrends which started at the 1.2670 price level.

 

You can see the chart below:

 

4 Hour chart

Date: 09.07.2012   Time: 19:31 Rate: 1.2310

 

Last Review

The price has corrected the mentioned move upwards (blue broken line) by two thirds (61.8%) by Fibonacci retracement. Breaking of this level will indicate that the price will reach at first stage the closest support at the 1.2440 price level, while its breaking will probably lead the price towards the last low at the 1.2290 price level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current level and breaching the 1.2690 price level will indicate that the price is headed towards the last peak on the 1.2750 price level.

 

Current review for today

As it was written on the last review, the price did reach the 1.2290 support level and it looks like it stopped in this area. Breaking of the 1.2256 price level will probably lead the price to the line connecting points 1 and 4, which is the “Wolfe waves” pattern target, around the 1.2170 price level. On the other hand, continuation of the uptrend from this area will probably lead the price to a Fibonacci correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the downtrend marked in red broken line, meaning between the 1.2400 and the 1.2485 price levels.

 

You can see the chart below:

 

 

GBP/USD

Date: 09.07.2012   Time: 21:24  Rate: 1.5531

4 Hour chart

 

Last Review

The price has breached the 1.5650 support level and reached the 1.5576 price level, this is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the last ascending move (blue broken line). Breaking of this level will probably lead the price towards the “Wolfe waves” pattern target on the crossing of the price with the line connecting between points 1 and 4, around the 1.5400 price level, while this will be used as a support level. On the other hand, stoppage of the price at the current area and breaching the 1.5716 price level will confirm that the current correction is over and its target will be the last peak on the 1.5777 price level.

 

Current review for today

The price has stopped on the 1.5460 price level after the downtrend which started at the 1.5716 price level. Breaking of the 1.5460 level will indicate that we will see the price continues towards the “Wolfe waves” pattern target, meaning the line connecting points 1 and 4. On the other hand, if the price will continue the small ascending move which started now, we will probably see a Fibonacci correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the downtrend marked in red broken line, and its first target is the 1.5560 price level.

 

You can see the chart below:

 

AUD/USD

Date: 09.07.2012   Time: 21:59  Rate: 1.0206

4 Hour chart

 

Last Review

The price has reached the 1.0326 target (minus 6 pips) and went back to the 1.0278 support level. its descend under this level and under the Bollinger’s moving average will indicate that it will perform a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last ascending move (blue broken line), meaning between the 1.0195 and the 1.0119 price levels. On the other hand, breaking of the 1.0326 price level will lead the price towards the next resistance on the 1.0474 price level.

 

Current review for today

The price has corrected exactly 50% of the uptrend marked in blue broken line. Breaching the 1.0326 price level will probably continue the uptrend towards the next resistance on the 1.0474 price level. On the other, stoppage of the price and its way back under the 1.0163 price level will lead it to the 1.0123 price level at first stage, this is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the mentioned uptrend.

 

You can see the chart below:

 

 

USD/CHF

Date: 10.07.2012   Time: 22:08  Rate: 0.9749

4 Hour chart

 

Last Review

The price has breached the 0.9564 price level and reached the 0.9594 resistance level. Breaking of this level will probably lead the price north towards the next resistance on the 0.9653 price level. On the other hand, stoppage in the current area and its descend under the 0.9513 price level will indicate that the price is headed towards the next support on the 0.9463 price level.

 

Current review for today

The price has reached the double bottom pattern target on the 0.9700price level (blue broken lines) and reached very closely to the “Wolfe waves” pattern target (crossing of the price with the line connecting points 1 and 4). It is possible to assume that in case the price will continue the downtrend, it will perform a correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last uptrend which started at the 0.9513 price level. if the price will get back up, it is possible to assume that its first target will be the “Wolfe waves” pattern target.

 

You can see the chart below:

 

USD/JPY

Date: 04.07.2012   Time: 16:57  Rate: 79.80

4 Hour chart

 

Last Review

The price is trying to get support above the 79.80 price level, while breaching of the 80.15 price level will lead the price at first stage towards the last peak on the 80.60 price level. On the other hand, descend of the price under the 78.80 price level will indicate that the price will probably descend to check the last low on the 77.66 price level.

 

Current review for today

The price still does not have a target, it is ranging between the 80.15 and the 79.00 price levels. Breaching of the 80.60 price level will indicate that the price will continue its move north towards the 81.70 price level at first stage, this is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the downtrend marked in red broken line. On the other hand, descend of the price under the 78.80 price level will indicate that the price will check the last low at the 77.66 price level.

 

You can see the chart below:

 

Daily Market Analysis by Real-Forex

Real-Forex offers institutional-level FX trading conditions, for private and corporate investors. We strive to provide our clients with superior technology and exemplary customer service through our live 24/5 online support and with one of the most advanced yet easy-to-use ECN platform on the market: the Real Stream FX platform.

 

 

Major Currency Outlook for the Week

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The US dollar has advanced against most global currencies as economic slowdown dampened the mood in the market. Last week, the ECB made an important decision to lower interest rates which increased demand for riskier assets. Here is an outlook for the major currency pairs this week.

EUR/USD: The pair started last week on a high, attempting to break the 1.2670 resistance line; it slid downwards as the market reacted to difficulties in executing EU leaders’ decision. However following the ECB rate decision, the cross dropped to two-year low of 1.2286. Europe sentiments indicate that economic conditions in the region are worsening; this is likely to force the euro/dollar pair further down where new low of 1.2260 is expected to offer some support during the week.

GBP/USD: this pair lost close to two cents last week to close at 1.5484; this week, the pair has eight releases that are likely to affect it. The pound started last week on a high at 1.5678, rose to 1.5721 but fell to 1.5484. The pair has received support at 1.5415 and below this is the 1.5361 line. On the upside, there is 1.5521 which If broken will open doors to 1.5600 support line. However, market analysts are predicting a downside trend for the pair this week.

USD/JPY: the pair slid lower last week, but it had remained stable through the week and the dollar weakened as a result of the mediocre US Nonfarm Payrolls data. The pair has been trading on an uptrend channel since the beginning of this month and it is close to support at the moment. For this pair, it is important to remember that uptrend support has more significance than uptrend resistance. It is expected that the pair will remain neutral through the week.

USD/CHF: the pair climbed three cents last week as Swiss franc fell, closing the week at 0.9769. This week is a bit quiet for the pair with only two events set to affect it. The cross is expected to continue with the decline if there are no strong data from Switzerland to revert this.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

EUR/USD Stabilizes After Hitting 2-Year Low

Source: ForexYard

The euro stabilized against the US dollar yesterday after hitting a two-year low last week. A disappointing US jobs report contributed to the significant risk-aversion in the marketplace and played a role in the euro’s renewed bearish trend. Today, analysts are warning that even though the euro has staged a very minor recovery, the overall trend for the currency is still bearish. With little significant news forecasted for the near future that could generate risk taking, the euro could remain at or near its current levels for the time being.

Economic News

USD – USD Sees Mixed Trading Day

The US dollar had a decidedly mixed day yesterday, as a slow news day resulted in low volatility in the marketplace. Against the Australian dollar, the USD gained some 40 pips during the morning session before correcting itself later in the day. After trading as low as 1.0153, the AUD/USD was able to bounce back to the 1.0175 level during the afternoon session. The GBP/USD increased by over 40 pips during European trading, eventually peaking at 1.5511, before staging a very minor downward correction late in the day.

Turning to today, another slow news day means that dollar movement is likely to be a result of euro-zone news. Traders will want to pay attention to announcements out of the euro-zone, particularly with regards to the recent deal among euro-zone leaders to reduce Spanish and Italian borrowing costs. Any signs of further euro-zone trouble may result in the greenback resuming its bullish movement against riskier currencies. Later in the week, the US Trade Balance figure could lead to dollar volatility, with any disappointing news likely to weigh down on the greenback vs. the JPY.

EUR – Euro Remains Bearish amid Risk Aversion in the Marketplace

While the euro was able to come off it recent lows against the dollar and yen during trading yesterday, the common currency remained bearish overall as investors continued to be averse to shifting their funds to riskier assets. The EUR/USD advanced some 60 pips early in the day, eventually peaking at 1.2315. That being said, the pair was not able to maintain its upward momentum and spent most of the European session trading around the 1.2280 level. Against the Japanese yen, the euro gained around 55 pips, reaching as high as 98.04, before turning bearish again and falling to the 97.80 level.

Today, analysts are warning that a lack of significant news means that the euro may not have many opportunities to reverse its current bearish trend. Traders will want to continue monitoring any developments out of the euro-zone particularly with regards to Spain’s high borrowing costs. On Wednesday, a German 10-year bond auction is likely to provide valuable clues as to whether the euro-zone debt crisis is spreading to the region’s largest economy. Should demand for German bonds come in below expectations, the euro could see additional bearish movement during the second half of the week.

Gold – Gold Stages Minor Recovery

After tumbling over $20 an ounce last Friday, gold was able to stage a moderate recovery during yesterday’s trading session. The precious-metal advance over $12 an ounce over the course of the European session to trade as high as $1589 during the afternoon session.

Turning to today, gold traders will want to monitor the US dollar’s movements, as they seem to be an accurate indicator of the level of risk taking in the marketplace. Should the dollar resume its bullish trend against riskier currencies like the euro and Aussie, the price of gold may move downward again.

Crude Oil – Oil Corrects Losses, Gains Close to $2

The price of oil advanced close to $2 a barrel yesterday, eventually reaching above the $85.50 level, after investors determined the commodity was oversold following last Friday’s extreme bearish movement. Additionally, a worse than expected Chinese CPI figure convinced traders that China may ease monetary policy further in order to stimulate economic growth.

Turning to today, any gains crude oil makes are likely to be limited as risk aversion is still dominating the marketplace. Negative euro-zone, US and Chinese data are all signaling that demand for crude is low, meaning that bullish movement may be temporary. That being said, any escalation in the conflict with Iran could result in a temporary spike in oil prices.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has fallen into oversold territory, signaling that an upward correction could take place in the coming days. Additionally, the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart appears to be forming a bullish cross. Traders may want to open long positions ahead of possible upward movement.

GBP/USD

While the Williams Percent Range on both the daily and weekly chart is currently in oversold territory, most other technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.

USD/JPY

Most long term technical indicators are currently showing this pair range-trading, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. Taking a wait and see approach may be a wise choice, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the coming days.

USD/CHF

The Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart is hovering close to the overbought zone, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the daily chart’s Slow Stochastic, which has formed a bearish cross. Going short may be the wise choice for this pair.

The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has crossed over into overbought territory, meaning that downward movement could occur in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bearish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open short positions ahead of a possible downward correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

 

Major Events this Week that Will Affect the EUR/USD Cross

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – Last week was disastrous for the euro/dollar pair as it plunged to two-year low after the bold step by the ECB to lower interest rate to 0.75 percent and deposit rate to zero. Further, the pair was pushed further down by the ADP Nonfarm payrolls which came way above the market expectation. On the losing side last week was the euro and yen while the greenback and commodity related currencies rose. The Swiss Franc rose against the euro adding pressure on the Swiss National Bank to react. Here are some of the events that will affect the market this week.

Monday 9

The foreign ministers in the eurozone will meet on this day in Brussels where they will be discussing the aid request from Cyprus, and the Spain and Greece bailout terms. The EU Summit had suggested that the bond buying for Spain was going to be carried out on July 9, but this has changed after opposition rose from some countries. German Trade Balance, Mario Draghi Speech, and Sentix Investor Confidence are other major events to look out for on this day at 0600, 1230, and 0800 hours respectively.

Tuesday 10

On this day, the most important event will be the French Industrial Production data which will be released at 0645hrs GMT. Data from France is expected to show deteriorating outlook for the eurozone. Last month, the second largest economy in euro area registered a 1.5 percent rise in industrial output, but for the June, a drop of 0.9 percent is expected.

Wednesday 11

The German Final CPI data will be released at 0600 hrs GMT. Inflation data from Germany is a key factor considered by the ECB in its monetary decisions and initial estimates showed a drop of 0.1 percent in prices. This is expected to be confirmed by the final figure on Wednesday.

Thursday 12

This day will be filled with major events that will affect the euro/dollar pair. At 0645 hours, the French CPI will be released. France is the second largest economy in Euro Zone a drop of 0.1 percent is expected. The ECB Monthly Bulletin will be released at 0800 hours where data used to make the rate decision last week will be released. Eurozone Industrial Production will be released at 0900 hours. Stagnation is expected after the 0.8 percent drop last month. Draghi talk in Casablanca will also be another event for investors to look out for.

These events are set to give the market negative sentiments hence the euro/usd pair is expected to be bearish.

Major Events this Week that Will Affect the EUR/USD Cross

Last week was disastrous for the euro/dollar pair as it plunged to two-year low after the bold step by the ECB to lower interest rate to 0.75 percent and deposit rate to zero. Further, the pair was pushed further down by the ADP Nonfarm payrolls which came way above the market expectation. On the losing side last week was the euro and yen while the greenback and commodity related currencies rose. The Swiss Franc rose against the euro adding pressure on the Swiss National Bank to react. Here are some of the events that will affect the market this week.

Monday 9

The foreign ministers in the eurozone will meet on this day in Brussels where they will be discussing the aid request from Cyprus, and the Spain and Greece bailout terms. The EU Summit had suggested that the bond buying for Spain was going to be carried out on July 9, but this has changed after opposition rose from some countries. German Trade Balance, Mario Draghi Speech, and Sentix Investor Confidence are other major events to look out for on this day at 0600, 1230, and 0800 hours respectively.

Tuesday 10

On this day, the most important event will be the French Industrial Production data which will be released at 0645hrs GMT. Data from France is expected to show deteriorating outlook for the eurozone. Last month, the second largest economy in euro area registered a 1.5 percent rise in industrial output, but for the June, a drop of 0.9 percent is expected.

Wednesday 11

The German Final CPI data will be released at 0600 hrs GMT. Inflation data from Germany is a key factor considered by the ECB in its monetary decisions and initial estimates showed a drop of 0.1 percent in prices. This is expected to be confirmed by the final figure on Wednesday.

Thursday 12

This day will be filled with major events that will affect the euro/dollar pair. At 0645 hours, the French CPI will be released. France is the second largest economy in Euro Zone a drop of 0.1 percent is expected. The ECB Monthly Bulletin will be released at 0800 hours where data used to make the rate decision last week will be released. Eurozone Industrial Production will be released at 0900 hours. Stagnation is expected after the 0.8 percent drop last month. Draghi talk in Casablanca will also be another event for investors to look out for.

These events are set to give the market negative sentiments hence the euro/usd pair is expected to be bearish.

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Market Review 10.7.12

Source: ForexYard

printprofile

The euro saw moderate gains against the US dollar in overnight trading, but analysts were quick to warn that the overall trend for the common-currency is still bearish and that any upward movement is likely to be temporary. Against the JPY, the euro has fallen by over 60 pips since last night and is currently trading around the 97.35 level.

Main News for Today

UK Manufacturing Production- 08:30 GMT
• The manufacturing data is forecasted to come in at 0.1%, well above last month’s figure of -0.7%
• Should the news come in as expected, the GBP could see gains against the USD and EUR during mid-day trading

EUR ECOFIN Meetings- All Day
• Euro-zone finance ministers are meeting to discuss last month’s agreement to bring down Spanish and Italian borrowing costs
• While the meetings are not expected to produce any concrete ways of moving forward with the agreement, any positive developments on combating the euro-zone debt crisis could help the EUR.

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

What A Slowing Chinese Economy Means For Pork Chops

By MoneyMorning.com.au

This is a big week for China watchers – it’s announcing a ton of economic data.

So far this year, everything points to Chinese economic growth falling out of bed.

So the market will be keeping a close eye on the numbers over the coming days.

The biggie will be China’s economic growth rate for the last 3 months. This has fallen steadily from 9.7% to 8.1% over the last year. The market reckons it will be closer to 7.9% this time around – we find out Friday, about lunchtime.

You have to wonder how a country as big as China can calculate this number just a few weeks into the new quarter. It takes other countries a month or two. Is this Asian efficiency, or just good old-fashioned government statistical manipulation…?

We get the numbers for the trade balance today. Retail sales, industrial production and new loans are later this week.

We’ve had a few bad omens for this lot already.

Yesterday we heard that inflation (CPI) has dropped from last month’s 3.0% to hit as low as 2.2%. Just 12 months ago it was up at 6.4%.

The other bad omen is that last week China cut interest rates for the second time in four weeks. This pair of cuts came after leaving them on hold for nearly four years. You wonder if they’re getting ready for a storm coming their way.

My pal and colleague Greg Canavan started calling for a China crash 12 months ago.

Things are following his script to the letter so far.

So I sent him a text message when China cut rates again the other night – his reply was:

‘Too little…and too late’.

What to Avoid As Chinese Construction Falls


It certainly seems that way. China put the brakes on its runaway housing sector to cool the economy down last year. Unfortunately its biggest customer, Europe, went into recession at the same time. Now China’s economy is stalling, and the government is furiously trying to back-peddle.

Greg makes the case that what we are seeing is the result of one of the biggest credit bubbles in history. And that history also teaches us that you can’t reinflate a burst bubble. You can read more from Greg here.

In the words of another colleague, Nick Hubble, ‘It’s kind of like trying to blow up a balloon that popped – all it does is make a rude noise.’

As editor of Diggers and Drillers, I keep a close eye on what China could mean for resource stocks.

It’s been well over a year since I tipped any stocks in iron ore, coking coal, and copper – commodities tied to Chinese infrastructure and construction. They did provide some good trades previously, with readers doubling their money on Discovery Metals (ASX: DML), and gaining 85% on Riversdale (ASX:RIV).

But I’ve steered clear of those commodities for a while, focusing instead on strategic minerals such as graphite and lithium. This strategy is to avoid the effect of the crashing Chinese property construction sector. Less construction means less demand for steel. This in turn reduces demand for iron ore. The price of this has now fallen from $175 / tonne to $135 / tonne in the last year.

But a China crash wouldn’t just affect iron ore.

What would you answer if I asked you what commodities China spends the most on?

Most people would say iron ore, coking coal, thermal coal, and maybe copper.

They’re all up there, but it’s Brent Crude oil that costs China more than any other commodity.

True – China has its own oil industry. But this only meets half its needs. So it imports around 6 million barrels a day, which is about 11% of the seaborne market.

So if this week’s data confirms that China’s economy continues to decelerate, then we may see the oil price take a hit.

The chart below shows just how important Brent Crude is to China. It’s from ANZ’s new China-focused commodity index. This shows the relative cost of the various commodities China consumes.

China – spending more on oil than anything else

China - spending more on oil than anything else

Source: ANZ commodity research


There are a few other surprises in there.

Analysing Chinese Consumption

China spends twice as much on pork (8.2%) as on copper (4.3%).

And to think all this time you should have been filling your freezer with pork chops instead of trading copper stocks!

To be honest I’m not sure whether an economic slowdown would lead to Chinese people eating less pork dumplings. And I couldn’t tell you how much of the pork China consumes is imported anyway. It’s not exactly my turf. But I can tell you that the price of pork at my local supermarket has risen steadily for years.

So perhaps China’s influence stretches further than just hard commodities like coal and iron ore.

Something I have talked about a lot is China’s rising gold consumption.

China produces more gold than any other country – and it now also imports more than any other country. Both sources are to meet the rapidly increasing gold demand from the Chinese investor and the Chinese central bank.

So it’s quite surprising to look at this chart and see that the cost of China’s gold demand is behind wheat, and roughly the same as cotton, soybeans and rubber! That takes a bit of the glamour out of my favourite precious metal!

All the same, China’s decelerating economy hasn’t seen it reducing its gold imports. Quite the opposite – these have increased rapidly over the last 12-18 months. My suspicion is that the central bank is behind most of this – and if anything a sliding Chinese economy will only encourage more buying.

As for the rest of the commodities, we’ll first have to wait to see what this week’s economic data shows.

All I know is that Greg doesn’t expect good news.

Dr. Alex Cowie
Editor, Diggers & Drillers

Related Articles

Market Pullback Exposes Five Stocks to Buy

The Data On The Chinese Economy You Really Should Read

How Gold Prices Look Set to Climb As Banks Crumble


What A Slowing Chinese Economy Means For Pork Chops

Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The collapse of talks between Iran and the “Big 6″ (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) should have accelerated international crude oil prices.

And yes, they are higher.

But the real spike hasn’t hit. Not yet.

The rising crisis atmosphere in the region and the genuine possibility that a fourth round of talks between the two sides will not even take place should have renewed the upward movement.

That hasn’t taken place yet, either.

Oil prices are caught between the normal dynamics of geopolitical concerns – which push prices north – and continuing concerns over a global economic slowdown – which results in lowering expectations.

Now, this limbo is a delicate balance; it could change in a matter of hours.

Oil Market in Limbo

Labour negotiations between Norway’s oil workers and employers over pay and pensions failed – yet again. Already, the strike has cut oil output by 13%, according to Reuters.

Then there are the figures coming out from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, which will almost certainly show a drawdown on U.S. inventories. Normally, that would also push up oil prices.

However, absent an Iranian move against the Strait of Hormuz or a major refinery accident somewhere in the world, the rise will be less than usual.

That’s because right now, four things are tempering the oil price rise:

  • Market worries over continuing Chinese expansion
  • Spanish bond interest rates in excess of 7% (again)
  • Sluggish job growth in the U.S
  • And expectations of lower earnings reports.

I told Fox Business on Friday that the range for crude oil prices short-term should be $92-$95 a barrel in New York and upwards of $110 a barrel in London. Without the offset caused by the economic angst, each price ought to be at least $25 per barrel higher.

I noted that using employment as a forward indicator of expected oil prices is looking at the problem in the wrong way. Job growth is the most lagging indicator factor there is. It does not telegraph a change; it registers it (in either direction) well after the fact.

Overall economic performance is widely used as a more proximate gauge. Nonetheless, whether it is Chinese production, US inflation, or European performance, the projections are nowhere close to the levels doomsayers are disseminating.

But pushing the negative side does allow short artists to get additional return while not actually playing off the market underpinnings at all.

I recently gave a briefing to several international asset fund managers. During our conversation, I suggested that the near-term short cycles had pared between 10% and 12% of the actual market price of crude oil. The figures I crunched kept telling me the market really justified a contraction of between 9% and 12% in oil prices from early May through late June.

What we actually received was a cut closer to 22%.

Now granted, giving such a briefing to that crew was like lecturing the fox about raids on the hen house. Most people in that audience were orchestrating the precise artificial pressure about which I was speaking.

Still, the quickest way to end that practice is to have a couple of major daily spikes in price to force them to cover shorts and unravel positions. Yet, until the perception of market direction changes, they are able to restructure a short movement in a couple of sessions and start the whole (artificial) cycle all over again.

What is it going to take to break the hold manipulation has placed on the oil market?

Ending Oil Price Manipulation

We do not need a major calamity (military invasion, natural disaster, or international threats) for this to happen, although any development in that quarter would certainly raise oil prices.

Rather, the market needs to be persuaded that a structure is developing to restrain the economic outliers.

The rise in oil prices does not require new problems to develop.

It merely needs the usual to return.

And for that to occur, the market needs persuasion that the concerns are in check.

Some of that may begin in Brussels, with the first meeting of EU finance ministers after the breakthrough accord orchestrated by heads of state on June 29.

Normally, finance minister sessions are dull as dishwater (believe me, I’ve sat through many). This time, however, there is some urgency.

Of course, both the EU and the European Central Bank recognize that a detailed plan will require more than a week or so to pull together. What the markets on both sides of the Atlantic need right now is reassurance that the mechanism is coming.

This is a first step.

There are other assurances that need to emerge as well – from Chinese central bank policies to prospects that that next extension of the debt ceiling in Washington will not devolve into another three-ring ideological circus.

But the bottom line is firm. The underlying forces in the oil market are not going anywhere.

Dr. Kent Moors

Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article first appeared in Energy & Oil Investor

From the Archives…

The Australian Housing Shortage That Never Existed
06-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Did the European Summit Change the Market Trend?
05-07-2012 – Murray Dawes

Why Government Intervention Hinders Progress and Innovation
04-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

The Big Opportunities in the Oil Market That Will Lead to Profit
03-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

LIBOR – The Banking Scandal That Could Cause A Riot
02-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie


Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices