Month: July 2012

Why G-Men Convert to Spies: The Means, Motive & Opportunity (Part II)

Robert Folsom | July 3, 2012

For more than two years, the Socionomics Institute has followed the growing global trend toward polarization. This volatile trend pits authoritarians against anti-authoritarians, and promises to become even more explosive as negative mood deepens.

The authoritarian side is clearly becoming more strident. In part one of this article I showed that the FBI had shifted its focus from law enforcement to domestic spying, in an effort that spends several billion dollars annually and relies on a 15,000 domestic spies. Since 9/11, this has led to the prosecution of about 500 alleged domestic terrorists.

Here are a few facts about those prosecutions.

• Some 53% of the prosecutions did not involve acts of terrorism, but allegations such as immigration violations, false statements, and financial crimes;
• 41% of the defendants had no alleged affiliation with a terrorist group;
• 48% were the target of an informant.
• About 66% of the prosecutions led to a guilty plea
• 21% were found guilty by trial.

That’s the overview, but the full story becomes clear only after a close look at the cases themselves. If you’ve ever closely followed and read about the highest-profile cases that the FBI announces publicly, you know where I’m going. Most of these cases begin when an informant hears or solicits a remark from a deeply disgruntled person, expressing some wish to act out their anger.

Then, having heard the “motive,” the informant and the FBI provide the means and the opportunity for that person to “act.” What follows is the stuff of a bad movie: As a recent Rolling Stone article put it, “the alleged terrorist masterminds end up seeming, when the full story comes out, unable to terrorize their way out of a paper bag without law enforcement tutelage.”

One especially notorious example was a 23-year old in Lodi, CA, who was convicted of training in a terrorist camp in Pakistan. The New York Times reported that the “informant in the case, a convenience clerk who was paid more than $200,000 over four years in salary and expenses, could be heard on tape angrily ordering [the suspect] to seek terrorist training.” A retired FBI agent who reviewed the case described it this way: “It’s shameful, because I’ve never seen the department do this before.”

Similarly, the “Liberty City Seven” who allegedly planned to blow up the Sears Tower in 2006, the Hemant Kakhami case in 2005 prosecuted by then-U.S. attorney Chris Christie, and the very recent case of the three individuals loosely affiliated with the Cleveland “Occupy” movement who allegedly tried to blow a bridge: and, as many would content, each case involved informants who helped the FBI carry out “sting” operations that target people or groups whose defining attribute was hapless incompetence.

As negative social mood grows, cases like these will increasingly be seen as the government taking expressions of anti-authoritarianism and making them synonymous with terrorism.

This particular battleground is but one of many in the growing conflict between authoritarians and anti-authoritarians. I invite you to learn more by reading Alan Hall’s April-May 2010 study on the topic. You’ll find it in the all-access archives that are open via a subscription to The Socionomist. Follow this link to begin.

Andrea Dibben contributed research.

If you would like to receive the best of Social Mood Watch and other free socionomics content each week, sign up here.

This article is syndicated by The Socionomist, a publication of the Socionomics Institute, and was originally published under the headline Why G-Men Convert to Spies: The Means, Motive & Opportunity (Part II). The Socionomist is designed to help readers understand and anticipate waves of social mood. Copyright © 2012 Socionomics Institute.

Important discourses from the North American central banks are expected to lift market volatility today, where the Canadian dollar is anticipated to gain opposite the US currency. The Bank of Canada is scheduled to release the nation’s Interest Rate Statement today, while US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington DC.

Taking hints from equity price movements earlier during the day, Asian shares reversed their course to trade higher as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s view on the US economy later in the day. Weak US retail sales of 0.5 percent for June plus a lower International Monetary Fund global growth forecast raised hopes of more stimulus measures from the Fed. Inclines were likewise recorded for most European stocks.

“Despite last week’s FOMC minutes showing that Ben Bernanke and the rest of the members had little urgency in getting a third round of quantitative easing started, traders are betting on a highly dovish performance from Bernanke as he testifies before Congress later,” Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at Capital Spreads in London, wrote in e-mailed comments.

The Fed chief is set to deliver his semi-annual report on the economy and monetary policy before Congress today and tomorrow. His testimony comes after data yesterday which shows that June retail sales declined 0.5 percent, kindling speculation that the Fed will introduce more measures to support the world’s largest economy. Recalling the minutes of the recent Fed meeting, two participants supported additional bond purchases, while two others said only a further deterioration in the economy would warrant them. Considering the labor market woes last month, as well as the flailing consumer spending numbers, more policy action seems warranted. It is therefore no surprise that the financial markets are excited over these speculations.

Meanwhile, the BOC is deemed to maintain its target for the Overnight Rate at 1.0 percent. Similar to how it was phrased in the last release, the rate statement is perceived to come out as saying that the Canadian economy continues to operate with a small degree of excess capacity. The recent GDP figure for April was at a robust 0.3 percent month-on-month from a rebound of 0.1 percent last March. Also, the jobless rate was recently lowered to 7.2 percent for June.

Also, Manufacturing Sales for the month of May is believed to register a strong rebound of 0.7 percent, almost the same as the wane in the April period. This is believed to boost the prospects of the Loonie further in the currency exchanges. Considering these fundamental data, a sell bias looks apt for the USDCAD exchanges today.

Written by AlgosysFx

By Central Bank News

By OilPrice.com

The US solar industry is undergoing some serious growing pains, with bankruptcies and mergers a necessary part of that process; meanwhile, competition from Chinese solar panels has many believing that American solar simply cannot compete. Not so.

Solar’s track record is certainly not inspiring: The past couple of years have seen a number of high-profile bankruptcies, including Solyndra, Q-Cells, Evergreen Solar and Abound Solar. At the same time, while Chinese solar companies have managed to avoid bankruptcy, they are in trouble and are posting sharp losses, and debts are not government-owned as most might think. Perhaps the Chinese government will bail these heavily subsidized solar companies out, but not necessarily as such a move would further imbalance the solar market.

While solar installers have benefitted from the market, US solar manufacturers have taken a hit, with solar panel prices falling by some 47% over last year due to global oversupply.

Quite simply, competition means that solar companies will have be a bit more innovative in reducing costs and improving efficiency.

Not all solar companies are going under: First Solar is doing fine. First Solar has net debt, indeed, but it stands to have a positive cash flow for the next two years. Two other companies, SunPower and Trina Solar, are also projecting a return to profitability for 2013. By 2014, First Solar will be restructured into a utility-focused company, giving up the rooftop solar market. This is how it is adapting and changing with the market.

Solar companies will not be successful until they give up on markets in which their only recourse for competing is through government subsidies. This mindset is what is weeding out the future solar winners from the losers.

General Electric was hoping to produce thin-film solar panels which are less bulky and more efficient than conventional solar panels. GE was hoping to be able to produce these panels at a low enough price as to be attractive to the average homeowner. However, those plans have been delayed (not scrapped) because of the falling price of thin-film panels to the point that GE cannot cover the cost of producing them. Still, GE is not ready to throw in the towel. Instead, it’s planning to improve its technology in order to increase production efficiency to rival its Chinese competitors.  It’s called innovation and it is essential for competition-subsidies or no.

Things are not as bad as they seem. According to a recent report from GTM Research and the solar Energy Industries Association, the first quarter of 2012 was one of its best in terms of installation (506 mw to power over 350,000 homes).  Furthermore, installed solar power is forecast to increase 75% in 2012, adding another 3.3 gigawatts of solar power to the current 4.4 gigawatts already installed across the country. But the rooftop installation market will not be forging solar’s future in the US. The future will be in solar power installation by big utility companies. While this category saw installation decline sharply in late 2011, the scale and scope of these projects is vast and construction time-consuming, so quarterly figures are not as relevant.

There are also alternatives to subsidies that solar power could latch on to. The Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SREC) program grants anyone who installs solar access to the state market to sell credits for every 1,000 kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. This is currently on offer in New Jersey, and other states are considering similar programs.

Slapping harsh tariffs on Chinese solar panels was the result of some heavy-handed lobbying led most relentlessly by German-owned SolarWorld AG, which is now planning to file an anti-dumping case against Chinese firms in the European market.

According to SolarWorld, the company will pursue “anti-subsidy” and “anti-dumping” cases against Chinese solar panel manufacturers in Europe in cooperation with a coalition of European manufacturers.

This is a rather rich move coming from a company that has itself been built on government subsidies.

It also comes on the heels of a decision by the US Commerce Department in May to impose a 31% tariff on the main Chinese manufacturers of solar panels in the US-a move led by petitioning efforts from SolarWorld’s US branches.

China is not entirely to blame for the global oversupply, of course. All manufacturers continued to produce massive quantities of solar panels despite overstocked inventories.

What most fail to understand, however, is that the US wants (and needs) Chinese clean-energy cash in order to make its clean-energy ambitions a reality-especially at a time when federal subsidies are dwindling.

More important than the solar panel dumping debate is what China can do for the US clean energy industry through cash investments-and  China is aggressively pursuing this avenue with the American blessing. China invested $264 million last year in renewable-energy deals in the US. Beijing-based GSR Ventures, from its offices in Silicon Valley, helped fund electric battery manufacturer Boston-Power Inc’s move into China. Meanwhile, San Francisco has come up with the ChinaSF program, whose ultimate goal is to lure Chinese investment in clean energy.

In the end, it will be Chinese cash and American access to (massive) Chinese consumers for clean-energy products that saves the industry and allows it to gain a competitive edge over fossil fuels.

As such, slapping tariffs on Chinese solar panels for “dumping” is tantamount to biting the hand that will feed the US clean-energy industry. And as for US solar panel manufacturers, well, competition means finding ways to survive in the real market, beyond subsidies that were never intended to last forever. Solar companies must adapt or shut down.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/US-Solar-Can-Compete-with-China-with-a-Little-Innovation.html

By. Jen Alic of Oilprice.com

By Central Bank News

As the University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters consumer-sentiment index fell to a preliminary July reading of 72.0 points last Friday, which was the lowest since December from 73.2 in June, the US economy is reflected to a fundamentally low-growth environment.

Summer doldrums for the US economy are likely to remain evident with a mediocre increase in retail spending and further signs of softening in the manufacturing sector. As a result, the data this week is perceived to be consistent with slower growth.

With views on Europe and US fiscal uncertainty continuing to constrain sentiment, business and buying conditions are expected to persist to deteriorate, which gives a feel for the direction of consumer spending. Though some economists still see little reason to believe consumers will sharply curtail spending based on recent patterns. The US is still adding jobs, though very slowly, and falling gas prices is alleged to put more cash in the pockets of consumers. Indeed, a silver lining in the retail report is that the modest rise in spending will almost certainly reflect less money spent at gas stations. As a result, consumers are likely to be more cautious, but not pack in.

The greatest concern to consumers is that wage and job growth is perceived to remain depressed over the foreseeable future, and that these meager gains are likely to be further diminished in the years ahead by rising taxes and benefit cutbacks. Financial markets had little reaction to the data. US stocks rose more than 1 percent in late morning trading as data from China allayed concerns a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy would further hinder growth worldwide. While China’s growth rate slowed to 7.6 percent, it was better than some in the market had feared and left the door open for more stimulus.

Hence, worries about the strength of the global economy have grown of late, along with concerns the Euro Zone debt crisis is taking its toll. After growing at a 1.9 percent annual rate in Q1, the US economy is not expected to have done much better in Q2. Americans are expected to remain gloomy about their longer-term prospects, with 39 percent anticipating their situation would be better in five years. Households can’t get overly concerned at the moment, but it’s just an indication that the average household is pretty queasy about the current state of play and the US economy.

Written by AlgosysFx

Why G-Men Convert to Spies: The Means, Motive & Opportunity (Part I)

By Robert Folsom

In the bear market struggle for control, authoritarians often have the upper hand over anti-authoritarians for a very simple reason: Government is usually the authority. Also, as Alan Hall’s study (April and May 2010, The Socionomist) makes clear, in the early days of a negative mood shift, citizens often welcome the state’s controls.

How are the trends identified and forecast in Hall’s study working out in the U.S.? The issue of entrapment/informants is a powerful case in point of the government’s widening authority. It includes all of the elements of pre-crime: The emphasis on prevention over investigation, the tolerance of false positives and the willingness to sacrifice individual liberty on behalf of indiscriminate state power.

I’ll get right to the specifics. The world’s best-known police agency — the U.S.’s FBI — has shifted its focus from law enforcement to domestic spying via informants. Here are just some of the facts.

• In the aftermath of 9/11, the FBI was painfully aware that it lacked intelligence analysts and linguists, and knew it was equally short of Arabic speakers and contacts in the American Muslim community. Thus one of the bureau’s early steps was to create its own in-house “National Security Branch.” It then hired away a top executive from the NSA and another one from the CIA (agencies which are forbidden from domestic spying).
• In turn, the former NSA official created intelligence units in every one of the FBI’s 56 field offices; the former CIA executive’s task was to carry out a “plan to reinvent the crime-fighting agency to take on terrorism.” A 2006 New York Times article described “his guiding premise: that arresting bad guys is sometimes less important than collecting intelligence to uncover the next terrorist plot.”
• As of 2011, the FBI’s mission change appeared complete. Counterterrorism accounts for $3.3 billion of its annual budget, while only $2.6 billion goes to organized crime. It maintains “Joint Terrorism Task Forces” with more than 100 state and local governments nationwide.
• Perhaps most notably of all: “The bureau now maintains a roster of 15,000 spies, some paid as much as $100,000 per case…” This dwarfs the size of the FBI’s informant program during the 1960s and 1970s.

For our purposes, the definition of an informant (or domestic spy) is straightforward: a person who receives money, or a reduced criminal sentence, or the promise not to be deported, in exchange for helping the FBI identify or stop a terrorist action. Meanwhile, the FBI has aggressively used the informants to “target not just active jihadists, but tens of thousands of law-abiding people, seeking to identify those disgruntled few who might participate in a plot,” according to Mother Jones.

In the years since the FBI shifted its focus away from fighting crimes and toward domestic spying via informants, public records show that the bureau’s efforts have led to the prosecution of 508 alleged domestic terrorists (as of August 15, 2011, according to a report from Mother Jones and the Investigative Reporting Curriculum of the University of California, Berkeley).

Given its multi-billion dollar budget and the scale of the spy network, that number of prosecutions may or may not be enough to regard the FBI’s informant program as a “success.” Part two of this article will post later this week, and review some of the particulars regarding those prosecutions.

Until then, consider subscribing to The Socionomist. Doing so gives you full access to the publication’s archives as well as regular socionomic coverage of the authoritarian/anti-authoritarian battle as it develops. Follow this link to begin.

Andrea Dibben contributed research.

If you would like to receive the best of Social Mood Watch and other free socionomics content each week, sign up here.

This article is syndicated by The Socionomist, a publication of the Socionomics Institute, and was originally published under the headline Why G-Men Convert to Spies: The Means, Motive & Opportunity (Part I). The Socionomist is designed to help readers understand and anticipate waves of social mood. Copyright © 2012 Socionomics Institute.

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar saw a bearish day yesterday vs. the Japanese yen, following worse than expected US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales figures which signaled to investors that the American economy still has a long way to go before recovering. Today, all eyes will be on a testimony from US Fed Chairman Bernanke, scheduled to take place at 14:00 GMT. Given the continuously disappointing economic indicators out of the US in recent weeks, investors are anxious to see if Bernanke will mention a new round of quantitative easing to boost the US economy. If he does, riskier currencies, like the EUR and AUD, could see significant gains against the greenback in afternoon trading.

Economic News

USD – All Eyes on Bernanke Speech

The US dollar turned bearish against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, following disappointing US retail sales news that caused investors to shift their funds away from the greenback. The USD/JPY fell more than 40 pips over the course of the day, eventually reaching as low as 78.69 during the afternoon session. Against the British pound, the dollar dropped more than 100 pips during the European session. The GBP/USD was able to peak at 1.5622 toward the end of the day before staging a slight downward correction to stabilize at the 1.5600 level.

Turning to today, investors will be closely watching a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke, scheduled to take place at 14:00 GMT. Any mention of a possible new round of quantitative easing to boost to the US economic recovery could result in the dollar extending yesterday’s losses during afternoon trading. That being said, if the Fed Chairman refrains from mentioning a new stimulus plan, investors may shift their funds to safe-haven assets which could help the greenback recoup some of its recent losses.

EUR – Euro Remains Near Multi-Year Low

Despite moderate gains against the US dollar yesterday, the euro remained near a two-year low for much of the day, as investors remain concerned about the lack of progress in combating the euro-zone debt crisis. The EUR/USD advanced more than 60 pips during mid-day trading, eventually reaching as high as 1.2246 before staging a slight downward correction and dropping back to the 1.2220 level. Against the Japanese yen, the euro fell close to 70 pips, eventually hitting the 96.15 level, a six-week low.

Today, the main piece of euro-zone news is expected to be the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, scheduled to be released at 09:00 GMT. Investor concerns that the euro-zone debt crisis is spreading to the region’s biggest economy have been one of the main causes of the euro’s recent bearish trend. Should today’s news come in below the forecasted -14.5, the common-currency could see additional downward movement against its main currency rivals.

Platinum – Platinum Falls amid Risk Aversion

Investor concerns regarding the euro-zone debt crisis led to risk aversion in the marketplace yesterday, which resulted in the price of platinum falling by over $17 during European trading. The precious metal eventually found support at the $1412.89 level, and was able to rebound back to $1419 toward the end of the afternoon session.

Turning to today, platinum traders will want to pay attention to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure. Should the German data come in below its forecasted level of -14.5, risk aversion in the marketplace may increase, which could lead to additional losses for precious metals during the European session.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Comes Off One-Week High

Crude oil came off a one-week high yesterday amid fears that demand in China will slow down due to slow economic growth in the country. That being said, oil’s losses were fairly moderate, as tensions between Iran and the West continued to generate supply side concerns among investors. After dropping as low as $86.79 a barrel during mid-day trading, crude was able to rebound to the $87.40 level.

Turning to today, oil traders will want to pay attention to a speech from US Fed Chairman Bernanke, scheduled to take place at 14:00 GMT. Should the speech include any signs that the Fed is getting ready to initiate a new round of quantitative easing, the US dollar could turn bearish against its main currency rivals, which may result in substantial gains for crude oil.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has dropped into oversold territory, signaling that an upward correction could occur in the coming days. This theory is supported by the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart, which has formed a bullish cross. Going long may be the correct strategy for this pair.

GBP/USD

A bullish cross on the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA indicates that this pair may see upward movement in the near future. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is currently angling downward, and may soon cross into oversold territory. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator, as it may signal possible bullish movement in the near future.

USD/JPY

Most long-term technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture may present itself in the near future.

USD/CHF

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index has crossed into overbought territory, indicating that this pair could see a downward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range is currently at the -10 level. Traders may want to go short ahead of possible bearish movement.

The Wild Card

USD/DKK

The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bearish cross, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index on the same chart has crossed into overbought territory. Forex traders may want to go short in their positions ahead of a possible downward correction.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The euro was able to extend its recent gains against the US dollar in overnight trading. The EUR/USD gained close to 50 pips and is currently trading just below the 1.2300 level. Crude oil also saw moderate gains last night. The commodity reached as high as $89.08 a barrel level before correcting itself and dropping to its current level of $88.75.

Main News for Today

German ZEW Economic Sentiment- 09:00 GMT
• Analysts are predicting today’s news to come in at -17.3, which if true, would represent a drop over last month’s figure
• Should the news come in below expectations, it may raise fears that the euro-zone crisis is spreading and could cause the EUR to reverse yesterday’s gains
US Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies- 14:00 GMT
• Investors are anxiously awaiting this speech to see if the Fed Chairman will hint at a new round of quantitative easing to boost the US economic recovery
• If there is any mention of quantitative easing in the testimony, the dollar could take significant losses in the afternoon session

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The German ZEW economic sentiment index will be released on Tuesday at 0900 hrs GMT. ZEW takes into account the sentiments and views of institutional investors and analysts about the German economy for the month. If the reading is higher than the market forecast, the euro strengthens. The report surveys and assesses the views of financial experts in the country to provide a possible direction in the economy in the next six months. It takes into account the views about inflation, stock market and the exchange market hence making this indicator important as a predictor of medium term economic future in Germany.

The report will come after the euro has dropped to two-year low as crisis in the euro area continue to take a grip of the member nations. Investors are not impressed with the progress made in dealing with the situation as decision to help Spain in its banking problem has been met with some resistance. There are also some sentiments that Italy will need bailout sooner than later. Spain and Italy are some of the largest economies in the region and their prolonged debt crisis has led to bearish sentiments for the EUR/USD. Further, this situation has been exacerbated by the ECB decision to reduce interest rate and cut deposit rate which has been clipping the bank’s crisis fighting options.

With the report set to be released in the next hour; there are five different scenarios that are expected. If the index comes within the market expectation –that is between -18.0 to -10.0, the euro will increase within range; but there might be a slim chance of breaking higher. If above expectation, –that is -9.9 to -2.0, the euro-dollar pair may rise beyond one resistance line. If the index is well above market expectation –that is >-2.0, the pair will probably break a second resistance line as this would show increased optimism in the German economy which would resonate to confidence in the euro.

However, if this index comes in below the market expectation which is between -18.1 to -23.0; this would send the euro-dollar pair below a single resistance line. But is this is well below market expectation; that is below -23.1, then the pair will probably break two or more support lines.

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