Can the US Building Permits Give a Boost to the S&P 500?

Source: ForexYard

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At FOREXYARD, we believe in keeping our clients prepared for potentially significant news events. As such, traders will want to carefully monitor the US Building Permits, scheduled to be released today at 12:30 GMT. As can be seen in the chart below, following the release of a higher than forecasted Building Permits figure in April, the S&P 500 saw significant gains.

s&p 500

Don’t miss out on another opportunity to capitalize on market volatility!

Today’s news is forecasted to come in at 0.76M. Should the end result exceed the forecasted level, investor confidence in the US economic recovery could receive a boost, which may result in additional gains for indices like the S&P 500. This is an excellent opportunity for forex traders to take advantage of potentially significant news, so don’t miss out!

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Real-Forex Daily review- 18.07.2012

Daily Market Analysis provided by Real-Forex

Tracking the EUR/USD pair

Date: 17.07.2012   Time: 16:50  Rate: 1.2224
Daily chart
The price has checked again the 1.2290 price level, but at this point could not close a candle above this level, so at this point this level can be used as a resistance level. Breaking of the 1.2290 price level will probably lead the price to a Fibonacci correction in size of between a third and two thirds of the last downtrend which started at the 1.2692 price level. On the other hand, continuation of the downtrend will lead the price at first stage to the “One in, one out” pattern target on the 1.2122 price level (red broken lines).
You can see the chart below:

4 Hour chart
Date: 17.07.2012   Time: 17:03  Rate: 1.2234
The price breached the 1.2290 but came back right after. Now the price is in the middle of the range between the 1.2167 and the 1.2290 price levels. Breaching of the 1.2290 resistance level will indicate that the price will continue at first stage to the 1.2340 price level, which is a 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend marked in red broken line. On the other hand, breaking of the 1.2167 price level will sign the continuation of the downtrend.
You can see the chart below:

GBP/USD
Date: 17.07.2012   Time: 17:15  Rate: 1.5611
4 Hour chart
The price has reached the “One in, one out” pattern by touching the 1.5670 price level. Breaching of this level again will indicate that the price will continue towards the closest resistance on the 1.5716 price level. On the other hand, descend of the price under the 1.5517 price level will create descending price structure, that will probably lead the price back to the last low on the 1.5400 price level at first stage.
You can see the chart below:

AUD/USD
Date: 17.07.2012   Time: 17:22  Rate: 1.0293
4 Hour chart
The price has breached the 1.0251 price level and reached the “One in, one out” pattern target on the 1.0300 price level. The price is moving in an ascending price structure while the continuation of the uptrend will lead the price towards the last peak on the 1.0326 price level. On the other hand, breaking of the 1.0202 price level will probably create a descending price structure which will lead the price towards the last low on the 1.0123 price level.
You can see the chart below:

Important announcements for today:
09.30 (GMT+1) GBP – Claimant Count Change
09.30 (GMT+1) GBP – MPC Meeting Minutes
13.30 (GMT+1) USD – Building Permits
15.00 (GMT+1) USD – Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
15.30 (GMT+1) CAD – BOC Monetary Policy Report
16.15 (GMT+1) CAD – BOC Press Conferance

 

Daily Market Analysis provided by Real-Forex

Real-Forex offers institutional-level FX trading conditions, for private and corporate investors. We strive to provide our clients with superior technology and exemplary customer service through our live 24/5 online support and with one of the most advanced yet easy-to-use ECN platform on the market: the Real Stream FX platform.

 

 

USD Receives Boost Following Bernanke Speech

Source: ForexYard

The US dollar saw significant gains during the afternoon session yesterday, following a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke which resulted in investors shifting their funds back to the greenback. Turning to today, dollar traders can anticipate another volatile day, as a batch of US news is scheduled to be released. Attention should be given to the Building Permits figure, set to be released at 12:30 GMT, followed by the second part of Bernanke’s testimony at 14:00 GMT. Any signs that the Fed will hold off on a new round of quantitative easing for the time being may help boost the greenback in afternoon trading.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Recoups Losses in Afternoon Trading

The USD saw broad gains against its higher-yielding currency rivals during the afternoon session yesterday, following a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke in which he failed to mention a new round of quantitative easing to boost the American economic recovery. The GBP/USD fell close to 80 pips during the second half of the day before eventually finding support at around the 1.5550 level. Against the Swiss franc, the greenback spiked more than 70 pips to peak at the 0.9850 level.

Turning to today, several US news events have the potential to generate market volatility. First, the Building Permits at 12:30 GMT is expected to come in slightly below last month’s figure. Should the news come in below the forecasted 0.76M, investor confidence in the US economic recovery may decrease, which could lead to dollar losses during mid-day trading. At 14:00 GMT, the Fed Chairman is forecasted to deliver the second part of his testimony. If he once again declines to mention any new initiatives to boost the US economy, the dollar may extend yesterday’s gains during the evening session.

EUR – Euro Tumbles vs. Safe-Haven Currencies

The euro took significant losses against its safe-haven currency rivals yesterday, as negative German data reinforced investor fears that the euro-zone crisis is affecting the region’s biggest economy. The EUR/USD fell over 100 pips during European trading, eventually reaching as low as 1.2187 before staging a mild upward recovery. The pair eventually stabilized at the 1.2215 level. Against the Japanese yen, the euro tumbled to the 96.40 level, down 95 pips for the day.

Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to any announcements out of the euro-zone related to the ongoing crisis in the region. Any further negative news regarding the debt situations in Spain and Italy may result in the euro extending yesterday’s losses. Additionally, US news has the potential to impact the euro. Should any of the economic data signal improvements in the US economy, the euro may continue falling vs. its safe-haven currency rivals.

Gold – Gold Tumbles amid Risk Aversion

The price of gold fell by well over $20 an ounce throughout European session yesterday, as risk aversion returned to the market place amid poor German news. Gold fell as low as $1571.05 during the afternoon session, before staging a mild upward recovery and stabilizing at the $1578 level.

Turning to today, gold traders will want to pay attention to US news, specifically the second part of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony at 14:00 GMT. Should the Fed Chairman once again refrain from outlining specific steps to boost the US economy, risk aversion in the marketplace may increase, which could result in gold falling further.

Crude Oil – Crude Oil Reverses Gains Following Bernanke Speech

After steadily increasing in value since late last week due to ongoing tensions with Iran, the price of crude oil turned bearish yesterday following a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Investors shifted their funds to safe-haven assets after the Fed Chairman failed to mention a new round of quantitative easing to boost the US economic recovery. As a result, crude fell from $89.59 a barrel to $87.76 during the afternoon session.

Today, oil traders will want to pay attention to the US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 14:30 GMT. Last week, oil saw a significant boost after the US inventories figure showed a sharp increase in oil consumption. Should today’s news once again signal that oil demand is up in the world’s leading energy consuming country, crude could reverse yesterday’s losses.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has dropped into oversold territory, signaling that an upward correction could occur in the coming days. This theory is supported by the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart, which has formed a bullish cross. Going long may be the correct strategy for this pair.

GBP/USD

A bullish cross on the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA indicates that this pair may see upward movement in the near future. In addition, the Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is currently angling downward, and may soon cross into oversold territory. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator, as it may signal possible bullish movement in the near future.

USD/JPY

Most long-term technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture may present itself in the near future.

USD/CHF

The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index has crossed into overbought territory, indicating that this pair could see a downward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range is currently at the -10 level. Traders may want to go short ahead of possible bearish movement.

The Wild Card

CHF/JPY

The Slow Stochastic on the daily chart has formed a bullish cross, indicating that an upward correction could occur in the near future. Furthermore, both the Williams Percent Range and the Relative Strength Index on the same chart have fallen into oversold territory. Going long may be a smart move for forex traders.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

Market Review 18.7.12

Source: ForexYard

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The euro saw moderate losses against the US dollar in overnight trading. The EUR/USD fell close to 40 pips, reaching as low as 1.2266 before bouncing back to its current level of 1.2282. Crude oil maintained its recent upward trend last night, as tensions with Iran continued to generate supply side fears among investors. The commodity is currently trading at $89.24 a barrel.

Main News for Today

Part Two of US Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Testimony- 14:00 GMT

• The markets saw significant volatility yesterday after the first part of the Fed Chairman’s testimony
• Investors will be closely watching today for any clues regarding a possible new round of quantitative easing to boost the US economic recovery
• Any mention of quantitative easing could lead to broad dollar losses during the afternoon session

US Crude Oil Inventories- 14:30 GMT

• Crude oil saw gains last week after the US inventories figure came in well below the forecasted level
• Should today’s indicator come in below the expected 0.5M, investors may see it as a sign that demand for oil in the US is going up, which could lead to additional gains for crude during afternoon trading

Read more forex news on our forex blog

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

When the Going Gets Tough, Entrepreneurs Innovate

By MoneyMorning.com.au

We came across two documents yesterday.

One contained the thoughts of one of the world’s most well-known and biggest investors…a man who manages over USD$263 billion of investor funds.

The other contained the thoughts of a university lecturer.

One focused on the core of investing, entrepreneurialism, and what makes an economy tick.

The other was a sad indictment of what investing has become…

In these pages we’ve explained how fortunes are made in recessions. That half of America’s Fortune 500 companies were formed during recessions or depressions.

And as Professor Andrew J. Razeghi, at Northwestern University, Chicago, points out:

‘Moments of economic turbulence provide the unique opportunity to start new businesses, launch disruptive new products, and strengthen customer loyalty — often at a discount…I offer you a tribute to organizations who have successfully innovated through the “worst of times”. When the going gets tough, the tough innovate.’

It would be nice to think an Aussie professor could write so passionately about innovation and free markets, but we won’t hold our breath waiting for it.

We’d also like to think entrepreneurs are making the most of the current global downturn to innovate the world economy back to prosperity.

We’re sure a bunch of entrepreneurs are doing just that. But thanks to the attempts to prop up failing businesses, there are much fewer opportunities for new businesses to break through.

And unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be an end to the meddling. As Bloomberg News reported yesterday:

‘Bill Gross, who runs the world’s largest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. is approaching a recession as Blackrock Inc. (BLK) expects the Federal Reserve to take more steps to support growth.’

It’s a sad state of affairs when investors aren’t looking towards innovators to boost the economy…people who create jobs, improve living standards, and discover efficiencies.

Instead, they’re hoping a bunch of bureaucratic pen pushers will push ‘Print’ and bingo…economic recovery.

In other words, when the going gets tough, the weak cry for a bailout. They cry for more government intervention, and the guidance of central planners.

Comrade Bernanke

It seems to us that many have forgotten what it means to live under a centrally planned economy. If you need a reminder we suggest you check out some of these fascinating videos of the Soviet Union.

Brezhnev, Andropov, and Gromyko appear on the platform and the crowd obediently applauds…‘Tell us leader, what shall we do?’

Earlier this morning, US Federal Reserve chairman, Dr. Ben S. Bernanke appeared before Congress. Investors will dissect every word. But what they really want is for their ‘leader’ to tell them what to do.

‘Tell us leader, what should we buy?’

‘Buy US government bonds my children…and keep buying them until I tell you to stop,’ Comrade Bernanke replies.

No wonder US government bond yields are making new lows nearly every week.

Of course, that’s not the way an economy works. An economy needs innovators to supply the demand.

Unfortunately, most folks have too much faith in the ability of fallible humans to be infallible. And that includes having too much faith in corrupt fascist democracies.

(Tonight we’re off to hear John Hirst, historian and Scholar Emeritus of La Trobe University, giving a presentation titled, ‘Why Australia Should Abolish Compulsory Voting’. We’ll give you our take on it tomorrow. But as someone who hasn’t voted in more than 20 years, you can probably guess our view on voting.)

When a Choice is No Choice at All

Last night we saw a commercial on TV by an insurance firm called iSelect. The ad was for health insurance. The tagline was, ‘Get health insurance or get taxed’.

That’s the kind of innovation you get from an elected democracy. Where you’re forced to buy a product from certain companies. And if you don’t, the government will take your money anyway.

It’s called Morton’s Fork — a choice between two unpleasant alternatives.

Do you buy inflated health insurance that you don’t need from a private healthcare firm? Or let the government tax you, supposedly to pay for public healthcare you don’t need either?

Although it’s not just in private healthcare where you get the State and corporations joining forces to rob individuals blind.

It happens on a daily basis throughout the Welfare State. Look inside any government department and you’ve got corporate parasites sucking money from the taxpayer: health, education, military, finance…you name it.

Rather than consumers having cash in their pockets to spend on the new ideas created by entrepreneurs, the cash is in the government’s coffers.

The government then spends this on its own pet projects…whether consumers want or need what the government provides.

For instance, spending $370 million to host the G-20 meeting in 2014. We wonder how many Aussies would voluntarily hand over the money to pay for this pointless talkfest?

Not many, hence why the government has to forcibly take the money from Aussie taxpayers through taxation to pay for it.

So, what does this all mean for you as a person and an investor? Is all hope lost? Should you just give up?

No. All isn’t lost. Just because government is stifling innovation and competition, doesn’t mean innovation and competition are dead.

Fortunes are Made in Recessions and Depressions

Small Aussie firms are still doing great things. You can see that in some of the companies we look at each month in Australian Small-Cap Investigator.

And you can see it in the pages of one of our favourite mainstream columns: Entrepreneur, in the Fairfax papers.

It’s only a matter of time before the Welfare State system of government and central bank intervention is completely discredited…even by the mainstream drones.

At that point the global economy will be in the depths of the worst depression in living memory. But remember, fortunes are made in recessions and depressions.

That’s when entrepreneurs and the free market will show the Statists how an economy really works.

Cheers,
Kris.

Related Articles

Market Pullback Exposes Five Stocks to Buy

The Credit Market Debt Bubble and the Role of Gold

This Gold Price Cycle Shows We’re Headed for a Rise


When the Going Gets Tough, Entrepreneurs Innovate

Annoyed by the LIBOR Rigging? You Should be Raging About The Fed

By MoneyMorning.com.au

This LIBOR thing has really annoyed people.

Yet anyone who cared to look knew that LIBOR was a wobbly benchmark. The methodology — 18 or so banks pull numbers out of thin air then knock off the top and bottom estimates — has never been secret. Worries about LIBOR fixing have been a regular feature of the back pages of the FT for several years now.

Of course, the blatancy of the rigging, and the arrogance of the banks, has been a big factor in the public outcry.

But what’s really happening now is that the general public is getting a look under the bonnet of the financial system. And they’ve discovered that the engine of the sleek-bodied sports car that delivered them the illusion of wealth in the good times, is in fact a mass of loose screws and unsheathed wiring held together with sticky tape and false promises.

I suspect that LIBOR is just the tip of the iceberg.

For example: what if I told you that the vast majority of gains seen in the stock market over the last 18 years were all down to the actions of a single bank?

The Fed -The Secret Force Behind the Stock Market

A piece of quite staggering research came out from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York last week. It hasn’t received quite the attention it deserves over here yet. But then, nor did the LIBOR scandal when it first broke.

David Lucca and Emanuel Moench took a look at the ‘equity premium puzzle’. This is one of those theoretical things that people who believe in efficient markets tie themselves in knots about.

In short, the long-term return you get on an asset class should reflect how risky it is. After all, why would you buy a very risky asset if it only returned the same on average as a slightly risky asset?

So, given a free market comprising rational economic actors, the higher the risk involved in an asset, the higher the return should be.

The ‘equity premium puzzle’ refers to the fact that the average return on stocks is actually larger than you’d expect, given their riskiness. In other words, you’re getting a bit of a free lunch by investing in stocks. That’s not supposed to happen.

Anyway, Lucca and Moench took a look at the action in stocks since 1994. That’s when the Federal Reserve started announcing its decision on interest rates regularly at 2:15pm on given days, eight times a year.

Here’s what they found. Stocks moved significantly higher in the 24 hours before the Fed’s announcement.

How significantly? Very.

Say Lucca and Moench, ‘more than 80% of the annual equity premium has been earned over the 24 hours preceding scheduled’ Fed announcements.

That sounds a bit jargon-y. So thankfully, the pair have included a chart of the S&P 500 that shows just how much the Fed has affected stocks since 1994. Take a look at it below.

The blue line shows the S&P 500 index. The red line shows the S&P 500 with each 24-hour ‘pre-Fed meeting’ period excluded.

S&P 500 Index With & Without 24-hour pre-FOMC Returns

S&P 500 Index With & Without 24-hour pre-FOMC Returns

I’ll just spell it out, in case you still can’t quite believe your eyes. If it wasn’t for the Fed, then the S&P 500 would today be struggling to hold the 600 mark, rather than wrestling with 1,300.

Interestingly, the Fed’s decisions also have an impact on international stocks. In fact, the Fed has more impact on the FTSE 100 than the Bank of England does, if Lucca and Moench’s research is right.

Proof of the Greenspan Put

The effect is restricted to Fed decisions — other macro-economic data don’t create the same sort of moves. Also, the impact is only felt in stocks, not commodities or currency markets.

Now, I’m sure there are a lot of ways to interpret this data (although Lucca and Moench are at a loss as to how to explain it). I’m sure various papers defending the prejudices of the economic establishment are being written even as I type.

But to me the explanation is pretty obvious. As one commenter on Lucca and Moench’s post puts it, this is official proof of the existence of the ‘Greenspan put’.

‘The Greenspan put’ refers to the notion that former Fed chief Alan Greenspan would always cut interest rates if it looked as though Wall Street was going to suffer too much pain. His successor, Ben Bernanke, has a similar tendency.

The stock market moves come before the Fed makes its decision, not after. But all that demonstrates is the huge faith that investors have in the Fed’s ability and desire to prop the market up. And the reason they have that faith, is presumably because the Fed always loosens when the stock market looks to be in trouble.

The fact that the effect is only present in stocks also suggests that it’s stock markets that are uppermost in the Fed’s mind. This makes sense. Bernanke even admitted that one of the key aims of the second batch of quantitative easing was to boost the stock market.

There’s a reason for this. Just as the authorities understand that rising house prices are the key to the ‘feel-good’ factor, so America’s leaders realise that there’s a ‘wealth effect’ attached to the stock market. When stocks are rising, people feel richer. So you can see why Bernanke wants to ramp them.

The trouble is, it also creates rampant moral hazard. People take bigger risks than they should. They borrow money to fund projects that don’t justify it. The whole economy becomes distorted in order to keep one ‘special’ market rising.

So let’s say you’re angry about LIBOR — you’re angry that 18 banks can set one of the world’s most important interest rates in such a poorly supervised, ill-understood manner.

Well, shouldn’t you be even angrier that just 12 people sitting in a room can set the world’s single most important interest rate to suit the needs of the stock market, all under the pretence of controlling inflation?

The Investment Implications From the Actions of the Fed

What can you do about this? I suspect there’s a hedge fund somewhere already setting up to take advantage of this apparent market anomaly. And you could always get a calendar of Fed announcements out and bet accordingly.

But I think the main thing to take away from all this is that if you’re wondering when and whether a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is coming, you need to watch the S&P 500. After all, that’s clearly what the Fed is watching.

In the meantime, as long as QE remains on the back burner, we can probably expect markets to keep moving sideways and remain vulnerable to nasty surprises.

John Stepek
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared in MoneyWeek (UK)

From the Archives…

The Credit Market Debt Bubble and the Role of Gold
13-07-2012 – Greg Canavan

How to Survive and Thrive from China’s Bust
12-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Payday Loans: Why This Lender of Last Resort Isn’t the Bad Guy
11-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

What A Slowing Chinese Economy Means For Pork Chops
10-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Late News: Bankers Rig Interest Rates, No-One Fired
09-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie


Annoyed by the LIBOR Rigging? You Should be Raging About The Fed

Why Mexico’s Economy Could Be One of the Most Attractive Emerging Markets

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Enrique Peña Nieto has just been elected president of Mexico.  It’s not what you’d describe as a dream job.

Mexico’s problems put all our worries into sharp perspective.  The most tragic and visible of these woes is the violent drug war. The war against the cartels (as well as infighting between cartels) has left 55,000 people dead over the last five years. It’s easy to see why most investors give the country a wide berth.

But they’re making a mistake. Behind the gory headlines lies a country with strong economic growth and surprisingly prudent management. Here’s why Mexico’s economy could be one of the most attractive emerging markets in the world.

A Manufacturing Boom in Mexico’s Economy

This may surprise you, but Mexico’s economy has become a formidable export power. Manufacturing accounted for just 2% of GDP in the 1980s. Now it’s 24%.

The boom began when the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) was signed in 1994. Over the last ten years, the weak peso has given the sector a further boost. Healthy demographics – with a large and growing work force – also checks wage inflation and makes Mexican goods more competitive.

The gap between Chinese and Mexican wages has narrowed sharply from 260% in 2006 to just 10% today, notes HSBC’s Sergio Martin. Taking into account travel costs, Mexican factories now beat Chinese ones on cost for many goods. That explains why 12.5% of America’s imports currently come from Mexico. That’s the highest in a decade, and second only to Canada.

Of course, with so many of its exports going to one place, Mexico’s fortunes are tightly tied to America’s. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as David Rees at Capital Economics points out: ‘With America growing at around 2%, Mexico’s economy should grow at between 3% to 4%.’

It’s ‘not spectacular’, but it beats plenty of other parts of the world. More importantly, while Mexico is still growing its share of the US market, it’s also increasing sales to its Latin American neighbours.

In the last six years, the share of Mexican exports going to the US has fallen from 90% to 80%. Meanwhile, the overall value of exports, which currently stands at $700bn, is expected to double within the next eight years.

Mexico’s economy is also “moving up the value chain”. ‘More jobs, more energy, [and] more foreign investment are going into more advanced applications’, says Scot Overson, boss of chipmaker Intel’s Mexican division.  These include ‘technology and aerospace’, or ‘advanced manufacturing, not just simple unskilled manufacturing. Those aspects of Mexico economy seem to be accelerating.’

The country has also been wise enough to avoid squandering the proceeds of the boom. Public debt stands at 35% of GDP and falling.Inflation, historically a bugbear, is hovering around 3.8% – below the upper band of 4% targeted by the central bank.

It helps that central bank governor Agustín Carstens is seen as a safe pair of hands. As finance minister, he hedged Mexico’s entire oil output just before the oil price tanked in late 2008. It saved the nation $8bn and – so the joke went – made him ‘the world’s most successful, but worst-paid, oil manager’.

The Three Biggest Challenges Facing Mexico’s Economy

Despite Mexico undergoing one of its best-ever periods of growth and economic stability, its main stock index, the MEXBOL, doesn’t look too expensive. The price/earnings (pe) ratio of 14 is pretty much in line with the index average since its 1978 inception.

The main drag on the country is the drug-related violence. Any long-term solution can’t be down to just Mexico. Consumer countries (such as the US) need to alter policies too. That won’t happen in the near future.

However, there’s plenty of room for improvement. Mexico’s murder rate has tripled to 22 per 100,000 people – far higher than other Latin American countries with similarly powerful narco gangs. If any progress could be made here, Mexico’s other attractions would become far more apparent to investors.

Peña Nieto has promised to halve deaths by changing tactics. Instead of using the army to take on the cartels, he will use the police to minimise civilian deaths. He has also recruited the Colombian police chief credited with helping to stem that country’s problems. Even Nieto’s critics think he can halt the violence – although admittedly that’s because they think his party, PRI, will do a secret deal with the gangs.

The second big problem is Mexico’s falling oil output. Mexico has plenty of oil, especially offshore. The trouble is that while state-owned Pemex has exclusive rights to the country’s oil, it lacks the capital and expertise to develop new fields. Production has fallen from 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2006 to 2.5 million today. It’s expected to slip to 2.2 million by 2016.

So Peña Nieto has proposed partial privatisation. This won’t be easy: Pemex’s position is enshrined in the constitution. However, Eduardo Gonzales, a lawyer with Mexican firm Creel, believes it can be done. ‘Private equity funds are already raising the finance to take advantage of it.’
If he can pull it off, Capital Economics reckon it would add almost 1% a year to Mexico’s GDP.

The final challenge is Mexico’s uncompetitive domestic economy. Many markets are dominated by local oligopolies that rip off the people and block new entrants. Inflexible labour laws and a tiny tax base are also a problem: Mexico’s total tax take is about 22% of GDP, far less than the 36% raised in Brazil.

The oligopolies look safe for now. Many supported PRI, and Peña Nieto is unlikely to attack them in his first term. Instead, he will probably focus on freeing up the labour market and reforming tax, says Rees. ‘Strong exports will keep the economy ticking over but if the domestic economy could be reformed then we would see exceptional growth.’

Invest in the Mexican Economy?

Be warned. Mexico’s economy is definitely a ‘risk-on trade’: when investors get nervous they will jump ship indiscriminately. However, in the long run, it has great potential. Put it this way – if you’ve been thinking of allocating capital to the BRIC countries, I’d suggest looking at Mexico as an alternative.

James McKeigue

Contributing Writer, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in MoneyWeek (UK).

From the Archives…

The Credit Market Debt Bubble and the Role of Gold
13-07-2012 – Greg Canavan

How to Survive and Thrive from China’s Bust
12-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

Payday Loans: Why This Lender of Last Resort Isn’t the Bad Guy
11-07-2012 – Kris Sayce

What A Slowing Chinese Economy Means For Pork Chops
10-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Late News: Bankers Rig Interest Rates, No-One Fired
09-07-2012 – Dr. Alex Cowie


Why Mexico’s Economy Could Be One of the Most Attractive Emerging Markets

USDJPY rebounds from 78.68

Being contained by 78.61 support, USDJPY rebounds from 78.68, suggesting that a cycle bottom is being formed on 4-hour chart. Further rally could be expected, and the target would be at 78.50 area. However, the rise would possibly be consolidation of the downtrend from 80.09, another fall to 78.00 is possible after consolidation, and a breakdown below 78.61 support will signal resumption of the downtrend. Key resistance is at 79.50, only break above this level could indicate that the fall from 80.09 is complete.

usdjpy

Daily Forex Analysis

The Beatles and Wall Street

The Beatles and Wall Street

Joel Benjamin | June 2012

What do The Beatles have to do with the stock market? Everything, says Robert R. Prechter, Jr., one of America’s leading stock market analysts and founder of Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm.

Prechter has developed a new theory of social causality called socionomics. It postulates that waves of social mood regulate social actions — including even the popularity of rock stars.

The crux of his theory is that an increasingly positive social mood motivates people to express their increasing joy and enthusiasm by buying stocks. Increasingly negative social mood encourages people to express their increasing misery and anger by selling stocks and seeing the worst in their heroes. The Beatles became the focus of social actions reflecting these mood changes.

Prechter’s research shows that the most important dynamic which ignited “Beatlemania” was the increasingly positive social mood of the day:

“Contrast the years of struggle and frustration, ending at the bottom of the bear market of 1962, with their career-making breakout when the trend turned up. Or the spectacular rise in their fortunes as the stock market rose from 1963 through 1965 with the string of stunning setbacks during the bear market of 1966. The rally of 1967-1968 brought a return to success, but, being a bear market rally…it had plenty of stresses and negative aspects. Finally, compare the events attending the 1967-1968 stock market rise with those of the 1969-1970 bear market. The changes in their experiences are so stark — and the role of society so obviously important–one cannot fail to see the trends of social mood at work.”

He points specifically to the period of February-October 1966. When the social mood trend was trending toward the negative, as evidenced by a falling stock market, that’s when much of the world — from America to the Far East — turned on The Beatles. Then there was Lennon’s comment about Christianity and the disastrous visit to The Philippines.

Social mood stimulated all types of expressions and The Beatles were not the only recipients of expressions of happy enthusiasm. Economies were expanding. Warring was at a minimum. All of these were results of an increasingly positive social mood which expressed itself through these social actions.

Stock markets, cultural trends and social barometers

One of the strengths of socionomics is its predictive ability. Since social actions take time to mobilize, there’s a correlation between the stock market and cultural trends.

Prechter writes:

“Recessions follow stock market declines. Economic recoveries follow upturns in stocks. Warring is more common after the stock market has fallen. Peace is widespread after the stock market has risen. Horror movies increase in production and popularity as the stock market falls. Bubble gum music is popular in positive-mood trends near major stock market peaks. And so on.”

Socionomics flips social causality on its head: changes in social actions do not cause social mood to change. Changes in social mood cause social actions to change. This direction of causality is counter-intuitive, which is why no one has noticed it before.

Rising stock market does not make people increasingly happy. Increasingly happy people make the stock market go up. From October 1962 to February 1966, social mood became persistently more positive, so stocks rose and expressions of joy increased. The Beatles both expressed that joy and were recipients of it.

The last two years of the decade saw both the decline in Beatles fortunes and the stock market heading south. From December 1968 to May 1970, stock prices fell and The Beatles quarreled and made bad business decisions until they disbanded.

From 1970, as the market went sideways in nominal terms and down in real terms, Harrison and McCartney flourished, while Lennon mostly struggled or hibernated. In January 1980, at the low in real stock prices, McCartney was busted in Japan for pot possession and briefly went to jail and Lennon was murdered.

As the public mood changes so does The Beatles’ fortunes

It wasn’t until the public’s mood changed significantly toward the positive over a period of years that the public rekindled its love of The Beatles. In 1987, The Beatles catalogue was issued on CD.

Then, as the market started to really move upwards under Clinton — as the public became hopeful again — The Beatles and their attraction to the public intensified. In the mid 1990s, they released Live at the BBC, then came Anthologies, books, videos and CDs and two new singles — Free as a Bird and Real Love. The stock market climaxed in 2000, and the public’s renewed adoration of The Beatles peaked in November of that year with the release of “1” album which sold 13 million copies in the first month.

As the stock market dove from 2000 to 2002, The Beatles waited it out, and in November 2003 at the start of another upturn, they issued Let It Be — Naked, then The Capitol Albums, and then came Cirque de Soleil/Love in Las Vegas in 2006.

They rode out the next downturn in the market from 2007 to early 2009 and then appeared again at the end of 2009 with the release of the Remastered catalogue and the Rock Band video game. In the fall of 2010, with mood and the market still rising, they finally released their entire catalog on iTunes.

Bear markets are mostly bad for rock stars. Many of them died during bear markets: Hendrix, Joplin, Morrison, Jones, Elvis, Keith Moon, and John Bonham.

The problem for Beatle fans is that Prechter’s socionomic theory predicts that The Beatles’ popularity will not continue indefinitely. Given the social mood and upcoming negative trends in the markets, The Beatles’ public appeal will once again fade significantly.

History shows that fans’ passion during the mania years always wanes as the people who experienced it die off. Still, there is hope for some measure of timelessness as well as periods of rekindled Beatles appreciation. Prechter concludes that true talent endures and pockets of appreciation remain, but initial passions may never return.

Any revivals of Beatle appreciation, according to socionomics, are likely to come late in major positive-mood trends in social mood:

“The Beatles were for the most part a positive-mood band, and it will take substantial extremes in positive social mood — like the one that supported them in the 1960s and again in the 1990s, to make resurgences of their popularity even possible.”

Joel Benjamin is the Director of The Center for Beatle Scholarship.

www.Beatlescholarship.com | [email protected]

Signs of Trouble in Italy and Germany

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Italian Scenario: There are sentiments in the market that Italy will require bailout soon; in fact, some analysts are talking about some kind of help within the month of July. Euro zone economic specialists are saying that the crisis in Italy has taken a back seat just because of the crisis in Spain. Italian benchmark yields have risen and it might require bond-buying program to reduce it. The good news on the Italian scenario is that the EU Summit decided to offer no seniority for the ESM fund over private bondholders. However there are more bad news for the country.

Despite the fact that no seniority decision will also apply to the Italian case, there are too many holes on the decision the biggest being opposition from some member countries. Another problem is that the current bailout mechanism might not be sufficient to protect Italian economy and its debt. If Italy was to require bailout, euro zone would be plunged into deeper crisis this would scare off investors weakening the euro even more. Further, Italy asking for bailout would mean withdrawing its contribution from the current bailout fund which would further complicate the debt crisis.

The German Scenario: There are many investors and analysts who see the euro as the heir of Germany’s old currency, the Deutschmark. This is supported by the reaction of the euro on Germany’s data. For instance, the ECB takes into account inflation data from Germany when making interest rate decisions. Further, German surplus has pushed the whole region into surplus. Despite the positive reports from Germany keeping the euro afloat, there are signs that this might not last long.

For instance, the current low PMIs have shown a contraction, with manufacturing being the most notable. In addition, the business confidence is falling as indicated by ZEW and IFO survey results in the past. The Retail Sales continue to disappoint each month as it comes short of the market expectation. Further, the situation in Germany seems to worsen as demand from China and the rest of Asia falls.

These scenarios in both Italy and Germany are weighing on investor sentiments which continue to worsen month after month.

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