By Central Bank News
Aussie Up Against the Greenback as Stock Advances
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The Aussie has strengthened the most in 11 weeks against the US dollar as Asian stocks extended a global advance which boosted the demand for riskier assets. The Australian dollar has gained for the firth day against the US dollar prior to a report in the US expected to show jobless claims increased last week. Poor US jobs data is expected to increase speculation of a QE3. Commodity related currencies advance was supported by the slowing volatility in major currencies which lead to demand for currencies from countries with higher interest rates.
Jeremy Jukes, a currency strategist at Velocity Trade Ltd in Auckland indicated that the south pacific currencies are looking strong as the market grapples for high yielding assets. He also added that the weakness in US data has facilitated the demand for riskier assets as there are more speculations about additional stimulus. It is estimated that first time application for jobless claims increased by 15000 in the week ending July 14 to register a total of 365,000. These figures are expected to be confirmed today as the Labor Department releases the official figures.
The Canadian dollar increased against the US dollar after the Fed released its Beige Book report yesterday where it indicated that the economy had grown at a modest to moderate pace last month. The report also noted that there has been contraction in Retail Sales and Manufacturing in some areas in the country. The loonie also decline as implied volatility for Group of seven currencies held its yesterday’s low of 8.67 percent which is the lowest it has been since November 2007.
The Australian dollar advanced by 0.3 percent against the US dollar to exchange at $1.0398, this is the highest level since May 1. The New Zealand dollar rose by 0.1 percent to trade at 80.14 US cents. It had climbed by 0.3 percent yesterday.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
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Not All Sin Stocks are Created Equal
Sin stocks. Vice investments. Merchants of death. They all sound delightfully naughty, don’t they?
That’s because they are. Based on the recent returns of alcohol and tobacco stocks, investors might conclude that it’s good to be bad. In a year marked by macroeconomic shock waves emanating from Europe, popular sin stocks like Altria ($MO), Philip Morris International ($PM), Diageo ($DEO), and Anheuser Busch InBev ($BUD) are all trading near 52-week highs.
Over long investment time horizons, the story is much the same. Vice investments tend to outperform the broader markets by a significant margin over the long haul. In his eminently readable book The Future for Investors, Professor Jeremy Siegel found that the most profitable stock market investment in U.S. history was tobacco giant Altria—and this despite decades of falling tobacco usage among Americans and an endless string of punitive lawsuits.
Princeton Professor Harrison Hong and New York University professor Marcin Kacperczyk echoed these findings in their 2007 white paper The Price of Sin: The Effects of Social Norms on the Markets. The professors found that the taboos associated with investing in politically incorrect industries such as tobacco, alcohol and gaming led these sectors to be priced as perpetual value stocks. Many big institutional investors, such as pension funds and endowments, are prohibited from investing in these industries, which creates attractive pricing and dividend yields for investors with no such restrictions.
Investors should keep in mind, however, that not all sin stocks are created equal.
Other than being collectively shunned by socially-responsible investors, the different categories of vice investments have very little in common. Tobacco and alcohol are both considered defensive consumer staples, whereas gaming stocks are far more cyclical and dependent on the health of the travel and tourism industries.
There is a reason why the Las Vegas casino stocks were not included in the list above of sin stocks making new 52-week highs. MGM Resorts ($MGM), Wynn Resorts ($WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands ($LVS) have all suffered in recent years due to overcapacity and a tourist dearth. Just this past week, the Nevada Gaming Control Board reported that the state’s gambling revenue fell sharply in May, the last month for which there was data. Revenues on the Las Vegas Strip were down a full 18%.
But even within the alcohol and tobacco sphere—the “booze and butts”, if you will—the industry economics are very different. Because of legal restrictions tobacco companies have very limited opportunities to advertise, whereas advertising and marketing are a major expense for spirits companies and are essential to the success of the brands. Half of the pleasure of enjoying a nice scotch is the feeling of quality and exclusivity that the brand projects. And who hasn’t seen the “most interesting man in the world” commercials and instantly wanted to drink a Dos Equis beer?
Implications for Investors
Sizemore Capital is a big believer in vice investing, and Altria and Diageo have been in our portfolios for multiple years. Barring an irrational surge in their prices, these are stocks that I would be content to own forever, and they are a fine addition for any investor looking for current income. But we do not currently have any positions in gaming stocks.
The stable consistently that makes booze and butts stocks attractive is not present in the gambling industry. This is not to say that gaming stocks cannot be profitably traded, and at the right price they could certainly be attractive. But these are stocks that should be viewed as short-term trades rather than long-term dividend generators.
Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long MO and DEO in The Sizemore Investment Letter Portfolio. This article first appeared on MarketWatch.
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South Africa cuts repo rate 50 bps to 5.0%
By Central Bank News
It said the domestic economy appeared to be slowing and it revised down GDP forecast for 2012 to 2.7 percent from 2.9 percent, and to 3.8 percent in 2013. In the first quarter annualized growth was 2.7 percent.
“The MPC is concerned about the increased downside risks posed to the domestic economy from global developments. The problems in the Eurozone are likely to persist for a protracted period and since the previous meeting the negative growth outlook has spread beyond Europe, in particular to the US, China, India and other emerging market economies. The negative spill-over effects to South Africa are likely to intensify,” the bank said, adding:
“This unfavourable outlook is reinforced further by the fragile domestic private sector investment and consumption trends which are confirmed by declining business and consumer confidence. The MPC therefore sees the risks to the growth forecast to be on the downside.”
www.CentralBankNews.info
Witness the Epic Battle Between Investor Hope and Investor Fear
Collective investor psychology: an insight from the long forgotten Mr. Gates
By Elliott Wave International
Can an investor ever know enough about financial markets to make a truly informed decision?
Even professionals must cope with imperfect knowledge, and the constant uncertainty that comes with it. That’s why every investor looks to others for signals about what to do.
Have you ever watched a dog interact with its owner? The dog repeatedly looks at the owner, taking cues constantly. The owner is the leader, and the dog is a pack animal alert for every cue of what the owner wants it to do.
Participants in the stock market are doing something similar. They constantly watch their fellows, alert for every clue of what they will do next. The difference is that there is no leader. The crowd is the perceived leader, but it comprises nothing but followers. When there is no leader to set the course, the herd cues only off itself, making the mood of the herd the only factor directing its actions.
The Elliott Wave Theorist, May 2009
Around the turn of the last century, Elmer Gates also observed how people take cues from others. He once ran the largest private non-commercial laboratory in the United States and obtained more invention patents than Thomas Edison. Remarkably, he worked on his inventions only during his spare time. His regular working hours were devoted to the study of the mind. Gates noted:
A companion, helper, associate, co-worker, influences one’s mental functioning by every gesture, tone, look, suggestion, opinion, approval or disapproval, argument, and mood. Minds interact consciously and subconsciously especially during quiescence, dirigation, introspection, and awareness; by their congeniality, presence and other ways.
Elmer Gates and the Art of Mind-Using (p. 246)
Investors take their cues from others then rationally justify their buy or sell decisions
Most market observers believe that investors respond logically to the latest news and buy or sell based on objective valuations.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
If investor behavior was rational, price charts would be linear and without sharp rises or declines. But that is not the case. The market’s price charts do show sharp price rises and steep declines, often when the market’s fundamentals offer no explanation to justify such a move. In a word, those near-vertical price moves are irrational. They’re not driven by logic, but by hope or fear.
People have no idea where prices are going, so to satisfy the reasoning portions of their brains, they make up reasons to justify their buying and selling actions….Investors are not reasoning but unconsciously herding, and unconscious processes aren’t random; they proceed according to mental constructs. That’s why financial markets display patterns such as persistent trends, head and shoulders formations, trend channels, Elliott waves, and so on. [emphasis added]
The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2008
These price patterns occur at all degrees of trend. That means collective investor psychology is evident in 5-minute, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts.
Investor hope is even on display during major market downtrends
Notice how the Dow Industrials rebounded after the 1929 crash but before the worst part of the price decline of 1930-32 (see wave b in the chart below).
In the chart, you’ll notice that bursts of “hope” even occurred several times during the worst part of the decline itself. Memories of the Roaring ‘Twenties bull market still lingered.
More recently, investor hope lasted over three years after U.S. markets bottomed in March 2009.
Today’s market is a full degree of trend larger than even 1929-1932
After the market declined in May and the start of June, yet another burst of hope started on June 4. But brace yourself.
Get ready for a psychological change that will be reflected in the price patterns of U.S. markets
Learn to Think IndependentlyYou’ll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International’s 30-year history; you’ll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today’s tumultuous market.Download Your Free 50-Page Independent Investor eBook Now |
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Witness the Epic Battle Between Investor Hope and Investor Fear. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Will the US Unemployment Claims Lead to Losses for Crude Oil?
Source: ForexYard
At FOREXYARD, we believe in keeping our clients prepared for potentially significant news events. As such, traders will want to carefully monitor the US Unemployment Claims figure, scheduled to be released today, at 12:30 GMT. The unemployment indicator tends to have a broad impact throughout the marketplace. As can be seen in the chart below, the price of crude oil tumbled following the release of the June 21st figure.
Don’t miss out on another opportunity to capitalize on market volatility!
Today’s figure is forecasted to come in at 370K, which if true, would represent an increase in US unemployment from last week. Should the indicator come in as forecasted, investors may take the news as a sign that the US economy is weakening, which could result in the price of oil falling during the afternoon session. This is an excellent opportunity for forex traders to take advantage of potentially significant news, so don’t miss out!
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Gold’s Trading Range “Converging” as London Olympics Threaten to Worsen “Summer Doldrums”
London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 19 July, 07:55 EST
WHOLESALE LONDON prices to buy gold rose 1.3% Thursday morning in London, briefly rising above $1590 per ounce as world stock markets also rallied.
Silver prices rose faster still, gaining 2.2% from Wednesday’s low to reach $27.55 per ounce.
The Euro currency meantime failed to rise above $1.23 for the fourth time in a week, however, and Spain was forced to pay 5.2% per year to raise new 2014 loans – a rise in funding costs from 4.3% at the last time of asking in June.
Lawmakers in Berlin were due Thursday lunchtime to vote on the Eurozone’s €100 billion credit line to Madrid, under which German tax payers will guarantee 30% of the package.
German debt meanwhile continued to pay new investors less-than-zero as prices rose further, squashing the yield on Berlin’s 2-year Bunds down to minus 0.05%.
Consumer price inflation in Germany was last seen at 1.7% per year. Brent crude oil today rose to a 7-week high above $107 per barrel – the highest level since May when priced in the single currency.
“The range in [Dollar prices to buy gold ] is converging,” writes Russell Browne at bullion bank and London market-maker Scotia Mocatta in his latest technical analysis.
“While a bearish trend has been in force since late February, trend momentum is weak. [That range] is currently defined by $1554 support and $1613 resistance.”
Drawing a 4-year uptrend from the base of Oct. 2008 straight to May 2012, however, “Gold on the weekly chart is heading back down towards the 2008-12 uptrend line at 1559,” reckons Axel Rudolph, technical analyst at Commerzbank.
“Sideways consolidation should soon come to an end with a break lower being around the corner.”
Over in Asia today, “People are buying and selling [gold] when prices move ten or twenty dollars,” Reuters quotes a Singapore dealer.
Such two-way traffic means “We remain range-bound,” the dealer says, forecasting that “People are not going to be very hungry for physical materials” until the return of festive demand from India later in the year.
Although the India Meteorological Department says that the current monsoon should improve as August begins – boosting potential incomes for rural consumers to buy gold – “Looking at the current scenario of monsoon, I don’t expect much pick-up from here,” one Kolkata gold wholesale, Harshad Ajmera of JJ Gold House, is quoted today by the Business Standard.
Overtaking India in early 2012 as world #1 for demand to buy gold, China is looking to develop its domestic gold market, a report claimed in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, by encouraging bank-to-bank wholesale trading.
Aiming to launch on 31 August, the move is “a bid help Beijing gain better pricing power amid growing appetite for commodities such as gold,” says the WSJ.
China is already the world’s #1 gold mining producer nation. Its banks will deal directly with each other, rather than over a formal exchange, says the WSJ’s source, thus mimicking the London bullion market, current center of wholesale dealing worldwide.
“Trading has been quite quiet and dull,” says one London market-maker in a note this morning.
“Gold is caught into the summer doldrums, and I think the Olympic Games will take their toll on the trading flows.”
London commuters are being repeatedly warned to expect long delays when the Games – held near the Canary Wharf financial district – begin a week tomorrow.
Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online at live prices
Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.
(c) BullionVault 2012
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
ForexCT’s Afternoon Market Thoughts for 19 July 2012
Video courtesy of ForexCT – A leading Australian forex broker, liscensed by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission, offers the MetaTrader4 and PROfit Platform to retail traders. Other services include Segregated Accounts, Trading workshops, Tutorials, and Commodities trading.
Euro Tumbles during Afternoon Trading
Source: ForexYard
The euro fell against virtually all of its main currency rivals during the European session yesterday, after pessimistic comments from German Chancellor Merkel led to risk aversion in the marketplace. Turning to today, several potentially significant US economic indicators are scheduled to be released. Traders will want to note the results of the Unemployment Claims figure at 12:30 GMT, followed by the Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 14:00. Should any of the indicators show growth in the US economy, the euro could see additional losses against the US dollar in afternoon trading.
Economic News
USD – US Unemployment Claims Set to Generate Market Volatility
The dollar saw significant activity in the marketplace yesterday, following euro-zone news which led to risk aversion among investors. The USD/CHF shot up over 50 pips during the morning session, eventually peaking at 0.9828 before staging a downward correction. The pair eventually found support at the 0.9800 level. Against the British pound, the greenback gained more than 80 pips during early morning trading. That being said, sterling was able to recover during the second half of the day and eventually moved up close to 50 pips to trade as high as 1.5645.
Turning to today, dollar traders will want to pay attention to several US indicators scheduled to be released during mid-day trading. The Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are all known to create market volatility. While the Unemployment Claims figure is forecasted to come in higher than last week, which could result in losses for the greenback, both the Existing Home Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are expected to show gains in the US real estate and manufacturing sectors. Should the indicators come in at their forecasted levels, the dollar could see gains against its main currency rivals during afternoon trading.
EUR – EUR/AUD Hits Record Low
The euro hit a record low against the Australian dollar yesterday, following pessimistic comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel regarding the euro-zone. The EUR/AUD fell more than 65 pips during European trading, eventually reaching as low as 1.1852. The pair was then able to stage a modest recovery before stabilizing at the 1.1865 level. Against the US dollar, the euro sank more than 80 pips to reach as low as 1.2216. The common currency was able to correct itself, and eventually leveled out at 1.2250.
Today, traders will want to continue monitoring any announcements out of the euro-zone. As we saw yesterday, comments from leaders in the region can have a significant impact throughout the marketplace. Any additional pessimism among German leaders could result in heavy euro losses. In addition, the euro could see some volatility as a result of US news. Should any of the US economic indicators scheduled to be released today come in better than forecasted, the euro could take additional losses against the greenback.
Gold – Gold Sees Mixed Trading Day
Gold saw heavy volatility yesterday, as risk aversion in the marketplace led to losses for the precious metal during morning trading. The price of gold fell by more than $17 an ounce, reaching as low as $1567.56, before correcting itself during the afternoon session and stabilizing around the $1578 level.
Today, gold traders will want to monitor developments out of the euro-zone. The markets have become very sensitive to comments from euro-zone leaders regarding the region’s debt crisis. Any additional pessimistic comments today could result in gold sinking further during European trading.
Crude Oil – Oil Extends Gains Following US Inventories Report
Crude oil moved up more than $1 a barrel yesterday, as the combination of ongoing tensions with Iran and higher than expected demand in the US, drove prices higher. The US Crude Oil Inventories figure came in at -0.8M, well below the forecasted 0.5M. As a result, the price of oil jumped as high as $90.24 a barrel during the afternoon session.
Turning to today, oil traders will want to pay attention to a batch of US news, scheduled to be released at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT. Should any of the data show improvements in the US economy, the dollar could see gains as a result, in which case oil may reverse its recent gains as it would make the commodity more expensive for international buyers.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart has fallen into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Additionally, the daily chart’s MACD/OsMA appears to be forming a bullish cross. This may be a good time to open long positions.
GBP/USD
Most long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that no defined trend can be established at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.
USD/JPY
The daily chart’s Slow Stochastic has formed a bullish cross, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart has dropped into the oversold zone. Opening long positions may be the wise choice for this pair.
USD/CHF
The Relative Strength Index on the weekly chart is approaching overbought territory, indicating that this pair could see a downward correction in the coming days. Furthermore, the daily chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed above the -20 level. Traders may want to open short positions for this pair.
The Wild Card
EUR/JPY
The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index has dropped into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart appears to be forming a bearish cross. This may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions ahead of possible upward movement.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
Why ForexYard Super-Mini Accounts are Ideal for Forex Beginners?
Source: ForexYard
The ForexYard Super-Mini Account was designed for those who are new to the Forex market. Trades through the Super-Mini Account are in smaller contract sizes of 1,000 units, 1/10th the size of the Standard Account. The smaller trade size gives our clients the opportunity to trade live with less overall risk, or exposure, to the market. In addition, the Super-Mini Account allows traders to become familiar with ForexYard, more specifically the quality and reliability of ForexYard dealing practices and the stability of the Forex Trading Platform.
Instant Deposit with Credit Card
ForexYard allows customers to fund their account with their credit card, so they can start trading immediately. ForexYard cares about protecting your credit card security as well as protecting your privacy to the highest standards. To achieve this, we use the latest technologies and comply with all relevant regulations. Please read our terms & conditions.
Start Trading in Minutes
With ForexYard you can start trading in minutes. Choosing our JAVA-based trading platform means that there is no software to download and you have the option to use your credit card in order to fund your account (depositing the margin required for the trading). Please note that due to security measures, the scope of deals on the first week of new users trading with ForexYard is limited. Such restrictions will be removed after making a phone contact with our team.
Establish Margin Trading Account with as Little as $100
ForexYard enables you to trade with amounts as small as $100! Starting to trade with such small amounts is the best way to get acquainted with the Forex marketplace. After familiarizing yourself with the ForexYard system and establishing a trading strategy you may increase the level and scope of your activity as you see fit.
No Software Download Needed
When you choose the ForexYard JAVA-based trading platform you have no software to download as it enables users to start trading immediately upon receiving a username and password. And with no software download required, you may log into your account and trade anytime, anywhere!
Develop a Disciplined Trading Strategy
Ask any successful trader and they will tell you that the key to trading success is discipline. Everyone has heard the expression “cut your losses and let your profits run” yet how many traders actually practice this?
Many traders will hold on to losses hoping they will reverse eventually, only to see the loss get progressively larger. These “irrational” trading decisions are based on emotional reactions to fluctuating profits and losses, a common pitfall for new traders.
Losses CAN and WILL occur, a trader’s ability to limit his losses is just as important (or even more important) than determining entry points.
Because the pip value on the Super-Mini Account is just 10 cents ($0.10) per pip, traders can focus on developing a disciplined trading strategy, basing their decisions on pip movement and market conditions instead of on profits and losses.
Consider the Following Example:
When trading on a ForexYard Super-Mini Account, a 30 pip floating loss over a $1,000 position is approximately $3. That same 30 pip move against you on the $100,000 position, becomes a $300 floating loss. By starting with a Super-Mini Account a trader loses only a small amount on every losing transaction making it easier to stick to a disciplined trading strategy. Generating larger losses on the Standard Account can be detrimental to new traders as the temptation to hold on to the loss is much greater based on the size of the loss.
Start Small. Build Up Confidence
There is NO MAXIMUM trade volume on the ForexYard Super-Mini Account. Although the standard trade size is 1,000 units, you are not limited to trading one lot! For instance, you can trade 10,000 units, 50,000 units or 150,000 units. This means as you become more seasoned and build up confidence you can slowly increase the size of your positions to maximize profits. In fact, the trade size of 10,000 units allows for more flexibility in terms of customizing the size of your trade enabling better risk management.
The Super-Mini Account is ideal for accounts under $1,000
ForexYard recommends that all traders with account balances less than $1,000 trade using a Super-Mini Account. This gives you more staying power in the market, and the ability to take advantage of multiple opportunities without over-leveraging your account. If you over-leverage your account you will not give yourself room for error. Even if you are correct on the direction of the market, minor fluctuations can generate a margin call and liquidate a good position.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.