By Central Bank News
About once a week, the editor of EWI’s forex-focused Currency Specialty Service Jim Martens records a video for his subscribers.
On Thursday, July 5, with EUR/USD trading in the mid-$1.2400 range, Jim posted the video you see below. Watch as he explains how Elliott wave analysis helped him realize that EUR/USD was on its way to make a new low for 2012 — before the new round of “bad news” from Europe was subsequently blamed for the euro weakness.
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline (VIDEO) EUR/USD: A Great Real-Life Lesson in Elliott Wave Analysis. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Source: ForexYard
At FOREXYARD, we believe in keeping our clients prepared for potentially significant news events. As such, traders will want to carefully monitor the UK Prelim GDP figure, scheduled to be released tomorrow, July 25th at 8:30 GMT. Last quarter’s GDP figure showed that the British economy contracted by 0.3%, well below analyst’s predictions. As can be seen in the chart below, the GBP tumbled following the news.
Don’t miss out on another opportunity to capitalize on market volatility!
Analysts are predicting tomorrow’s news to come in at -0.2%, which if true, would signal a further decline in the British economy and could lead to additional losses for sterling during European trading. This is an excellent opportunity for forex traders to take advantage of potentially significant news, so don’t miss out!
Read more forex news on our forex blog
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Tuesday 24 July 2012, 07:30 EDT
U.S. DOLLAR gold prices fell to $1573 an ounce Tuesday morning in London – a few Dollars above last week’s low – as stocks and commodities also traded lower, while US Treasuries were flat and German bunds fell after Germany’s credit rating was placed on negative outlook.
Silver prices briefly dipped below $27 per ounce – 1.2% below where they began the week.
On the currency markets, the Euro briefly dropped below $1.21 for the second day in a row, while Euro gold prices hovered around €1300 per ounce – 3.2% off its six-month high. The gold price in Euros has gained 8% since the middle of May.
“Thanks to the Euro’s depreciation vis-a-vis the US Dollar, gold in Euro terms has been making gains for some time now,” says a note from Commerzbank.
Ratings agency Moody’s said last night that it is placing three Aaa-rated Eurozone sovereigns, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, on negative outlook.
“There is an increasing likelihood that greater collective support for other Euro area sovereigns, most notably Spain and Italy, will be required,” said a statement from Moody’s.
“Given the greater ability to absorb the costs associated with this support, this burden will likely fall most heavily on more highly rated member states if the Euro area is to be preserved in its current form.”
The German finance ministry responding by insisting that “Germany will, through solid economic and financial policy, defend its ‘safe haven’ status and continue to maintain its responsible anchor role in the Eurozone”.
Moody’s also said it will “assess the implications” of recent Eurozone developments for Austria and France, whose Aaa ratings the agency put on negative outlook in February.
“In all large industrialized countries, AAA is an endangered species,” says Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank.
“They’re all under fire.”
Spain and Italy meantime both announced short-selling bans on Monday following heavy stock market losses. Spain’s regulator CMNV has banned short-selling – by which traders bet on a fall in prices – on all Spanish securities for three months, Reuters reports. Italy’s Consob has banned the short-selling of 29 banking and insurance stocks for one week.
Spain’s Ibex stock index saw the biggest loss of major European bourses in Tuesday morning’s trading, falling 2.7% by lunchtime, while Italy’s FTSE MIB index was down 1.3%.
Both nations introduced short-selling bans last August, which also saw similar bans implemented by Belgium and France.
Benchmark yields on Spanish 10-Year government bonds continued to rise Tuesday to just below 7.6%, after two Spanish regions confirmed over the weekend that they plan to seek financial aid from the government in Madrid. Several other regions are also expected to ask for bailouts.
Despite this, Spain managed to sell just over €3 billion of three-month and six-month debt at an auction this morning, although borrowing costs were higher than at a similar auction last month.
In Italy, ten major cities, including Milan, Naples and Turin, are on the verge of financial collapse, according to a report in newspaper La Stampa, which also reports on growing calls on social media sites for a return to the Lira, as well as for people to withdraw funds from their bank accounts.
Italian 10-Year bond yields hit six-month highs at over 6.4% on Tuesday.
CME Group, the futures and options exchange operator that runs the New York Comex, announced Monday that is “exploring the concept of having clearing houses or other depositories hold all customer segregated funds”.
A statement from CME Group said it “is appalled at the recent misuse of segregated funds by two firms, MF Global Inc. and PFG”, adding that “the current system in which customer funds are held at the firm level must be re-evaluated”.
Over in China – which has overtaken India in recent months to become the world’s largest source of demand to buy gold – manufacturing has contracted at a slower pace this month than last, according to preliminary purchasing managers index data published by HSBC today.
HSBC’s flash PMI for this month was 49.5, up from 48.2 in June, with a figure below 50 indicating sector contraction. The survey however showed a faster rate of employment contraction, with the sub-index for employment growth hitting its lowest level in 40 months.
“[This] should ring alarm bells in Beijing,” says Nikolaus Keis, economist at UniCredit, who adds that he expects authorities to respond with fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.
“Creating enough jobs for millions of new graduates and rural migrant workers is crucial for the government.”
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Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.
(c) BullionVault 2011
Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
By Central Bank News
Hungary’s inflation rate rose to a higher-than-expected 5.6 percent in June from 5.3 percent in May, but the bank said this was due to temporary factors and inflationary pressures from economic activity remained subdued due to weakening demand. The bank targets 3.0 percent inflation.
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Source: ForexYard
Rising Spanish bond yields combined with fears that the country will soon need an international bailout sent the euro to new lows against its main currency-rivals yesterday. The EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in more than two-years, while the EUR/JPY fell close to a 12-year low. Today, analysts are warning that, depending on the results of French and German manufacturing and services data, the euro could fall further. Traders will also want to pay attention to a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. If the Fed Chairman hints at a new round of quantitative easing to boost the US economy, the euro could reverse some of its recent losses against the greenback.
The US dollar extended its upward trend against most of its main currency rivals during European trading yesterday, as investors remained fearful about the debt situation in Spain. In addition, renewed concerns about the health of Greece’s economy sent investors to safe-haven assets. The EUR/USD dropped close to 80 pips to reach 1.2066, its lowest level since June of 2010. The AUD/USD fell just over 70 pips before finding support at the 1.0250 level. The USD was not as fortunate against its safe-haven rival, the JPY. The USD/JPY fell to a six-week low at 77.94 before staging a reversal and moving up to 78.20.
Turning to today, dollar traders will want to pay attention to a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke, set to take place at 12:45 GMT. Given that the US economy has slowed down in recent months, investors will be closely watching today’s speech to see if the Fed Chairman will hint at a new round of quantitative easing. If he does, the dollar could reverse some of its gains from yesterday. That being said, if Bernanke remains quiet about any new steps to boost the US economic recovery, the dollar could extend its recent bullish trend.
Investors once again grew fearful regarding the economic situation in Greece yesterday, following a report that the International Monetary Fund may not continue financing the country. The news, combined with rising borrowing costs in Spain, sent investors away from riskier assets and resulted in the euro falling across the board. After falling over 100 pips during overnight trading, the EUR/JPY hit a 12-year low at 94.23 during early morning trading. Against the British pound, the euro dropped to a 3 ½ year low at 0.7758 before staging a mild upward correction and stabilizing at the 0.7800 level.
Today, euro traders will want to pay attention to the French and German Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indices, set to be released at 7:00 and 7:30 GMT. Should any of the data indicate that the euro-zone debt crisis is weighing down on either the French or German economies, the common-currency may take additional losses during the European session. In addition, any negative reports or announcements regarding the Greek economy could result in further euro bearishness.
The price of gold fell as low as $1562.92 an ounce during mid-day trading yesterday, as a strengthened US dollar made the precious metal more expensive for international buyers. Overall, gold fell more than $20 over the course of the day before staging a minor upward correction and stabilizing at $1570.
Today, gold traders will want to pay attention to the USD, and any movement it sees following a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. If the Fed Chairman strikes a pessimistic tone regarding the pace of the US economic recovery, investors may begin speculating that a new round of quantitative easing may be coming, in which case the dollar could reverse its bullish trend. As a result, gold could begin moving upward again.
Risk aversion in the marketplace due to renewed worries regarding the Spanish and Greek economies resulted in the price of crude oil falling throughout the day yesterday. The euro-zone news outweighed the supply side fears due to conflict in the Middle East that had caused oil to turn bullish last week. The commodity dropped almost $2 a barrel during European trading, eventually reaching as low as $87.92.
Today, oil traders will want to continue monitoring any developments in the euro-zone, as they are likely to continue influencing the direction crude takes. Should the euro continue to slide against the US dollar, oil could take additional losses, as the commodity would become more expensive for international buyers.
The weekly chart’s Slow Stochastic appears to be forming a bullish cross, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the coming days. Furthermore, the same chart’s Williams Percent Range has crossed over into oversold territory. Traders may want to open long positions for this pair.
Long-term technical indicators indicate that this pair is range trading, meaning that no defined trend can be determined at this time. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer picture is likely to present itself in the near future.
The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index has crossed into oversold territory, signaling possible upward movement for this pair in the near future. In addition, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart appears to be forming a bullish cross. Going long may be the wise choice for this pair.
The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range is currently well into overbought territory, signaling that downward movement could occur in the coming days. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index on the same chart is currently at the 70 level. Opening short positions may be the wise choice for this pair.
The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has crossed over into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart has formed a bullish cross. Forex traders may want to open long positions ahead of a possible upward breach.
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The GBP/USD pair opened the week at 1.5580 and dropped to 1.5517. The pair then rose to a high of 1.5737 close to the resistance line of 1.5750. However, it dropped to close the week at 1.5615. There are some important events from UK that are expected to affect the cross this week.
The first major event from UK is the BBA Mortgage Approvals data which will be released on Tuesday at 0830hrs. The indicator has not changed much over the last several releases but the market is expecting an increase this time round. At 1000hrs on Wednesday, the CBI Industrial Order Expectations report will be released. This indicator has been on the negative side in the past. It is expected to remain in the negative but with a slight improvement this month. Prior to this report, at 0830 hrs, the preliminary GDP reading will be released. The last two readings have posted a 0.2 percent decline consecutively and the market expects this trend to continue this month as the UK economy continues to contract. On Friday, the Nationwide HPI report is expected to be released. This is a significant housing inflation index which was weak in June, coming in at 0.6 percent. The market is expecting a rebound with an increase of 0.8 percent.
With these releases, the marketing is expecting the pair to remain bullish this week as it has shown some strength over the last week. This is due to concerns that are being raised over the US data which is disappointing to investors. If the UK data comes in within the market expectation we might see and increase in the strength of the pound.
Some of the technical levels to look out for include; from the top, the resistance line at 1.5805, which was last breach in May followed by the 1.5750 which remained strong last week. The next line is at 1.5648 which has been changing its roles in the past week as the cross breached on its way up and broke it when it declined to close the week at 1.5615. The support line at 1.5600 held strong last week; but it is weak going into the week. The other support line is at 1.5521 followed by 1.5415.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
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By TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com (Dublin) – The cross opened the week at 1.0234 and dropped to a low of 1.0202; however, the pair staged an impressive run, climbing to 1.0444, breaking through the resistance line at 1.0402 to close the week at 1.0422. This has been attributed to the weak US data including the unemployment claims and manufacturing data. There are several releases this week from Australian that will affect the cross and they are discussed below.
On Monday, the Australian PPI will be released. The previous release was not impressive as it came in down by 0.3 percent, registering the first decline since January 2010. The market is expecting July reading to rebound and record a 0.3 percent increase. The PPI index will be released at 0130 hrs GMT. The other important event will be the Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI which will be released on Tuesday at 0230 hrs GMT. The index has been below the pivotal level of 50 since October last year, which indicative of contraction in Chinese manufacturing industry. Any changes in Chinese data affect Australian as this is Australia’s biggest trading partner.
Almost about half an hour later, the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak on the state of economy in Australia at 0305hrs GMT. Traders have a keen eye on his speech as it might contain clues of future monetary policy. If his speech is more hawkish than the market expectations, this pushes the Australian dollar. The other event to put a close eye on is the CB Leading Index which will be released on Wednesday at 0000hrs GMT. The index declined for the first time since January in June, but an improvement is expected this time round.
The CPI data will be released on Wednesday at 0130hrs; this index has remained constant with very little change since the third quarter in 2011. The market expects a increase of 0.6 percent for the second quarter this year. The Trimmed Mean CPI which will be released at the same time on the same day is also expected to rise with the same margin.
Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management.
Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox
Source: ForexYard
Riskier currencies, including the euro and Australian dollar, received a moderate boost in overnight trading following a positive Chinese manufacturing indicator. That being said, fears that Spain will soon require a full scale international bailout limited gains, and the euro remains close to a two-year low against the US dollar. Crude oil was able to advance close to $1 a barrel as a result of the Chinese news, and is currently trading close to the $89 level.
Main News for Today
German Flash Manufacturing PMI- 07:30 GMT
• If the manufacturing figure comes in below the forecasted 45.3, fears that the euro-zone debt crisis is impacting growth in Germany may worsen
• Any disappointing news may weigh down on the euro
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks- 12:45 GMT
• Investors will be closely watching the speech for clues as to any future plans for the Fed to initiate a new round of quantitative easing
• If Bernanke does mention quantitative easing, the dollar is likely to reverse most of its recent gains during the afternoon session
Read more forex news on our forex blog
Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.
© 2006 by FxYard Ltd
Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.
