Indian Economy – A Basket of Business Opportunities

The population of India is estimated at over 1 billion, and continues to grow every year. The Indian economy is the fourth largest economy of the world, when we talk in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The economic reforms initiated since 1991, have been providing an investor-friendly environment through a liberalized policy framework spanning the whole economy. These reforms have helped India in becoming more prominent in undertaking importing and exporting activities, and other such forms of overseas businesses.

More than 10 per cent of the employed population works in industrial fields, and these include manufacturing and production of textiles. Process outsourcing is another business in India in which economy has grown drastically over the years. Residents of India are fluent in English, they have good communication skills for doing customer service, they are conversant in tech support, and other similar service industries, so the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) segment has good scope in India. In fact, out of the top fifteen outsourcing companies across the globe, seven of the large firms are located in India.

India also produces a good amount of agricultural products, along with development in segments such as logging, fishing, and forestry. Investment is increasing as banks have become more stable and secure, which was also part of the economic reform. India’s growth rate is approximately 7% on an average, and has greatly reduced the amount of poverty among its residents over the years. The constant growth of main industries has given more individuals the opportunity to have stable employment.

India is one of the most sought after destination for business and investment opportunities. The reasons behind this are:-

  • Extensive manpower base
  • Diversified natural resources, and
  • Strong macro-economic fundamentals

Over the last ten years, the Indian Economy has seen a paradigm shift and is on a robust growth trajectory. The Indian economy today claims of an increasing annual growth rate, deep capital markets and liberalized foreign direct investment (FDI) regime. India is one of the few economies to have withstood the recent global financial crisis and its gross domestic product (GDP) has been constantly growing in excess of 8 per cent per year. The country’s GDP has been growing at an average rate of 8.6 per cent for the last five years. India’s GDP growth projection is 8.5 per cent for FY11.

India’s economy has strong fundamentals and is host to several prominent global corporate giants that are leaders in their respective fields. According to the Global Competitiveness report 2010-11, India ranks 51st among 139 countries. India ranks higher than many countries in key parameters such as market size (4th) and innovation (39th). It also has a sound financial market (17th).

According to UNCTAD’s World Investment Prospects Survey 2010-2012, India is the second-most lucrative destination for FDI in the world. Indian markets have significant potential and offers prospects of high profitability and a favorable regulatory regime for investors.

About the Author

Harjeet is an Indian – born mass-market novelist, who covers the world internet related topics . He writes columns and articles for various websites and internet journals in the domain of Investments and Investing in India.

 

Euro Dips after EU Summit Clash

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The euro has dropped to its lowest since July 2010 versus the dollar after EU leaders clashed over the joint bond sales which French Hollande is supporting to be introduced in the euro zone as a solution to the current debt crisis in the region. The EU Summit could offer an immediate solution to the problems in Spain attracting investors’ attention in to the problems in the region. This has sparked risk aversion in the market hence forcing the euro further down against the yen and the greenback.

The 17-nation currency dropped against the yen for the third day after euro zone reports indicated that services and manufacturing industries contracted in May as German business confidence dropped. The debt crisis in the region and the contagion fears are other reasons that have forced the pound down against major peers in the market. Safe haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen have increased against most major peers as concerns the debt crisis is worsening increased their demand. This trend is expected to continue as more news from the meeting is expected. The crisis is also expected to spill over to other high-yielding currencies such as south pacific currencies and the Canadian dollar.

After the summit, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor indicated that a stronger economic cooperation between countries in the region is required before they could introduce joint bonds. The European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, indicated that Euro zone leaders are in no pressure to introduce the euro bonds.

After the meeting, the euro fell by 0.2 percent to 1.2555 during the start of the London session, it had earlier dropped to 1.2516 which is the weakest level it had been since July 2010. Against the yen, the 17-nation currency dropped by 0.4 percent to trade at 99.65 yen. The euro had dropped 1.5 percent yesterday making it the biggest drop this week.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

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The Psychological Keys of Trading

By Taro Hideyoshi

There are many experts who teach the psychology of trading. Also, there have been many books written trying to teach the discipline needed for trading. Although the psychology is a important key for trading, you do not need to spend your money and your effort attending seminars to learn it.

This article intends to provide you a few simple psychological rules for trading that should greatly enhance your ability to trade effectively

Think about your losses as a cost of doing business

You have to accept your losses as a cost of doing business. Most successful traders said that the most difficult thing about trading is accepting your losses. Everyone has the desire to be right, to be correct all of the time. Therefore novice traders usually think that their losing trades mean that they make some mistakes or something is not working. But for experience traders, losses are just a cost of doing business.

Every great traders cannot win all the times. If you look at the performance results of them, you will see that they all have a large percentage of losing trades. Some of them use to lose money on more than half of their trade.

I guarantee you that you will have the times that you loose. So, learn to accept them and live with them. You will be spending a lot of time with them.

Use historical statistics

Before you trade, You have make sure that your trading strategy will eventually make profits for you. You should know its characteristics. In order to do this, you may have to use historical statistics.

Using historical statistics for your trading strategies, A.K.A. back-testing, gives you great peace of mind, particularly in accepting the losses.

By knowing the historical performance of a trading strategy, you may have psychological comfort during the tough periods of losing trades and drawdown. You will get the ideas about the trading strategy e.g. how many losing trades it has in a row and the largest losing trade the strategy has experienced.

Let the market and strategy determine the profits

Once you make sure that your selected trading strategy will make you profits, do not try to predict the market and do not try to second guess your strategy. You have to let the strategy be the strategy. Let it make money if it can. However if the market does not move in the manner that allow it to make money, it will not make money.

Put the responsibility of making money on the strategy and the market.

About the Author

Taro is an experience trader who trades in stocks, futures, forex. He strongly focuses on technical analysis, trading systems and money management.

If you would like to find more articles on MetaStock Tutorials, MetaStock Formulas, Trading Systems and Money Management. Please go to MetaStock Trading System.

You would also find the list of recommended books for trading & investing at The Investing Books.

 

Gold & Silver Rally with Stocks, Euro Hits 23-Month Low, as “Grexit” Planning Begins

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 24 May, 08:10 EST

The WHOLESALE PRICE of gold investment bars rose 2.0% from yesterday’s low to reach $1569 per ounce in London Thursday morning, recovering from $1535 for the fourth time since gold hit all-time peaks above $1900 in late-summer 2011.

European stock markets also rose from new 2012 lows, while commodities halted their plunge and the silver price rallied 3.4% to trade back above $28 per ounce.

The Euro currency also bounced after slipping to $1.2520 – a new 23-month low.

Raising the odds of a Greek exit from the Eurozone to 50-75% by 2014, “We assume Grexit occurs on Jan. 1 2013,” says Citigroup economist Michael Saunders in a new report.

Citi’s base scenario sees “Greece staying in the European Union and receiving external loan support” – an idea mooted by German weekly magazine Der Spiegel ahead of Wednesday night’s “informal” summit of EU leaders.

After the meeting Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council, said that Greece’s partners want it remain in the Eurozone, but Athens must “respect its commitments.”

The Eurogroup Working Group – which advises Eurozone finance ministers – has “agreed that each [member] should prepare a contingency plan for the potential consequences of a Greek exit,” Reuters today quotes an un-named official.

“The immediate Greece impact is manageable,” reckons Germany’s banking association BdB.

“I think [an exit] has been priced in by markets,” says BdB’s general manager Andreas Schmitz.

US, German, Japanese and UK government bonds all ticked higher Thursday morning, nudging interest rates for their “safe haven” debt down towards new record lows.

Core Eurozone stock markets also rose, but remained more than 6% lower from the start of May.

The Athens stock market shed another 3%, extending its fall to 22-year lows, but Madrid pushed 1.8% higher after the Spanish government injected €11 billion into part-nationalized Bankia lending group.

This morning’s drop in the Euro helped raise the price of wholesale gold investment bars to €40,000 per kilo, unwinding the last of this week’s previous 2.1% drop.

Even so, “The correlation with Euro/Dollar is quite strong at the moment,” notes Credit Suisse analyst Tom Kendall.

“Today we’ve seen the Euro come back off its immediate lows … and that has helped the precious metals get a bid again.”

The 1-month rolling correlation of Dollar gold prices with the Euro/Dollar exchange rate – which would read 1.00 if they moved perfectly in lock-step – rose above 0.94 on Wednesday.

Gold’s correlation with the Euro has only been stronger on 14 trading days in the last 675, since Athens first revealed a “black hole” in its government accounts and raised the 2009 budget deficit forecast to 12%.

“If gold moved entirely in lockstep with EUR/USD movements,” says market-maker HSBC’s precious metals team, “we would expect the bullion market to be much closer to $1100” – the level of gold investment prices when the Euro last traded at $1.25

“That gold now is $460 per ounce higher implies it may have some other underlying supportive factors” beyond a simple Euro connection.

Emerging-market central banks continued their gold investment in April, new data from the International Monetary Fund showed this morning, with Mexico, Kazakhstan and Ukraine all adding metal to their holdings.

The Philippines’ gold reserves rose at the fastest pace since Lehman Bros. collapsed in Sept. 2008, up by 32 tonnes to a total of more than 194.

“[This will] gather much attention from market participants,” says Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at Swiss bank UBS. “[It] should somewhat help sentiment for gold.”

Central bank gold buying in the first 3 months of 2012 totaled 81 tonnes, according to latest data from market-development organization the World Gold Council.

That was equal to nearly four-fifths of all gold ETF and new coin demand from private investors.

“Overall higher global central bank and invest-ment demand almost balanced out the drop in demand from the jewellery and industrial sectors,” notes Oliver Heuschuch at German refiner Heraeus’ headquarters in Hanau, Germany.

Looking at the refiner’s own flows, “Sales of gold investment bars in the last three weeks were significantly up, even though this has so far had no effect on the price of the metal,” Heuschuch says in his latest weekly report.

In Asian trade overnight, “gold prices held fairly steady,” says Standard Bank’s daily note, “with profit-taking balanced by a resurgence in physical demand.”

“Everyone is worried about Greece withdrawing from the Eurozone and [about] the global economy,” says Dick Poon, head of precious metals at Heraeus’ Hong Kong office, “and would rather keep cash on hand than buying anything.”

Flash estimates for China’s manufacturing activity pointed today to a further slowdown in April. Eurozone manufacturing activity quickened its contraction, with Germany’s Ifo business sentiment survey also coming in worse than analysts forecast.

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

The Best Investment Opportunities in India

Presently it has been found that most developed countries are increasing their investments in India. The reason behind this is the varied industrial opportunities that this vibrant democratic system of the country offers to investors. The legal framework of the country is highly expansive. The infrastructure of India also is growing rapidly as it has a good network of business institutions, banking facilities and the capital market is highly organized.

The various sectors that are worth investing in India are namely:
Education: The education system of India has been praised by the world educationists from a long time. Along with private investors the government too is taking care to see that the quality of education is of the best quality. Actually the population of India comprises of 50% youth. There are 367 universities and about 18000 colleges. Teaching is a respectable profession and many sought after it. International schools have entered the country too because they have seen great prospects. Biotechnology and aeronautics are very popular courses of today in India.

Software Industry: This is another most promising field where investments are sure to be profitable. India is well known as the IT hub and that is because the intelligent youth of India are providing great services at a very reasonable rate. Moreover, it is continuously growing and the revenue output is very high. The software companies are CMM certified which is an added advantage that attracts investors to this sector. Hence it has been rightly thought that investing in this giant software industry is surely a good decision.

BPO Services: Along with the software industry, the KPO (Knowledge Process Outsourcing) and the BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) services that are linked to it are also growing at a tremendous rate and that is also another reason of investors taking great interest in this field. According to the facts stated by NASSCOM, the BPO industry only is expected to reach a value of $30 billion by the year 2012. It has been predicted that the KPO industry is also supposed to reach the $10 billion by the 2012.

Food processing: India is an agriculture based country. Among the various flourishing industries, food industry has gained great importance as it acts as a connector between industry and agriculture. Hence it is quite obvious that the industry of food processing is bound to be the largest and the best field for investment opportunities in India. It is patronized by not only the government but is supported by cooperatives and private investors also.

Stringent rules have been formulated and government bodies set up to keep control over the functioning of the various units. To ensure safety of the investors government has introduced the National Food Processing Policy also.

If you are interested to invest in India Online you can very well do so as the economy of the country is always developing and therefore it is the appropriate market for investment. India is highly influenced by the global markets and that is seen in her purchasing power.

So if you are planning to invest in Indian Industries, then look straight to the world’s largest super power. Investing in India is surely the right decision.

About the Author

Harjeet is an Indian – born mass-market novelist, who covers the world internet related topics . He writes columns and articles for various websites and internet journals in the domain of Investing in India and Investment options.

 

EUR/USD Falls to 21-Month Low

Source: ForexYard

The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.2614 yesterday, a 21-month low, after investors grew increasingly concerned regarding Greece’s fate in the euro-zone and shifted their funds to safe-haven assets. The currency pair staged a mild upward correction later in the day, eventually stabilizing around the 1.2655 level. Turning to today, euro traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant news events. Specifically, the German Manufacturing PMI and Ifo Business Climate may help the euro recoup some of yesterday’s losses if they come in above expectations.

Economic News

USD – Dollar Sees Significant Gains amid Risk Aversion

The US dollar moved up against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, as ongoing fears regarding Greece’s future in the euro-zone have led to risk aversion in the marketplace. Against the euro, the dollar gained over 60 pips, eventually hitting a 21-month high. The USD/CHF advanced some 50 pips during the European session, eventually peaking at 0.9518, a four-month high. That being said, the news was not all positive for the greenback. Against its safe-haven rival the JPY, the USD fell close to 60 pips, eventually reaching 79.32 during mid-day trading.

Today, dollar traders will want to pay attention to several US indicators which may generate market volatility. At 12:30 GMT, the Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims figures are set to be released. Both are forecasted to show growth in the US economy, which if true, may help the dollar against currencies like the yen, GBP and euro. Traders will also want to pay attention to any news out of the euro-zone which could impact the dollar. Specifically, any negative announcements out of Greece are likely to cause safe-haven currencies like the dollar to extend their bullish trends.

EUR – Greece Worries Send Euro to Fresh Lows

The inability of euro-zone leaders to come up with fresh ideas to combat the debt crisis in the region caused higher-yielding assets like the euro to tumble vs. the safe-haven currencies during yesterday’s trading session. Differences in opinion between France’s anti-austerity new government and German officials have led to serious concerns among investors regarding the future prospects for the euro-zone. In addition to falling to a 21-month low against the US dollar, the EUR/JPY dropped over 100 pips over the course of the day, eventually reaching as low as 100.15.

Turning to today, euro-traders will want to pay attention to several indicators that may generate market volatility. The German Flash Manufacturing PMI and Ifo Business Climate, set to be released at 7:30 and 8:00 GMT, may help the euro during the morning trading session if they come in above expectations. At the same time, traders should be warned that the overall trend for the euro is still bearish. Any positive euro-zone news may be overshadowed by the political and economic crisis in Greece, which could limit any gains.

Gold – Gold Tumbles as Investors Move to Safe-Haven’s

Gains by the safe-haven US dollar yesterday resulted in gold tumbling over $20 an ounce during mid-day trading. Typically, a bullish dollar negatively impacts commodities and precious metals, as it makes them more expensive for buyers outside of the US. The price of gold dropped below $1540.00 by the afternoon session.

Turning to today, gold traders will want to pay attention to US news set to be released toward the end of European trading. Should any of the news result in additional dollar gains, gold may fall during the afternoon session.

Crude Oil – Oil Drops to 7-Month low

The price of crude oil fell as low as $90.68 a barrel during European trading yesterday, a seven-month low. Oil, along with most other commodities, has turned bearish due to fears that Greece may have to exit the euro-zone due to its unwillingness to commit to austerity measures. In addition, record high stockpiles of crude oil in the US have led to an additional drop in prices.

Turning to today, the direction oil takes will once again likely be determined by euro-zone news. Any additional negative developments could result in the commodity extending yesterday’s losses. At the same time, should any of the US news set to be released come in above expectations, it may be taken as a sign of increased demand which could lead to a modest increase in the price of crude.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart indicates that this pair is in oversold territory, meaning an upward correction could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the MACD/OsMA on the weekly chart, which has formed a bullish cross. Going long may be the wise choice.

GBP/USD

The weekly chart’s Williams Percent Range has dropped below the -80 level, indicating that an upward reversal could take place. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the daily chart has formed a bullish cross. Traders may want to go long in their positions.

USD/JPY

Long term technical indicators for this pair are providing conflicting signals at this time. On the one hand, the weekly chart’s MACD/OsMA has formed a bearish cross. At the same time, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is in oversold territory. Taking a wait and see approach may be the wise choice for this pair.

USD/CHF

The weekly chart’s MACD/OsMA has formed a bearish cross, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future. This theory is supported by the Willaims Percent Range on the same chart, which has crossed above the -20 line. Opening short positions may be the wise choice for this pair.

The Wild Card

USD/NOK

The daily chart’s Williams Percent Range is currently in overbought territory, indicating that downward movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the same chart, which is currently at the 70 level. Forex traders may want to open short positions ahead of a possible downward breach.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

 

The Divergence of Oil and Natural Gas

By MoneyMorning.com.au

This morning we’re writing from the Platts LNG Forum in Sydney.

It’s only a small affair, but we wanted to get a feel for the latest vibe in the LNG (liquefied natural gas) market.

Our aim?

To bolster our case that we’re on the right track…that natural gas is set to be the number one growth commodity (perhaps the only growth commodity) over the next 20 years.


Of course, there’s a chance we’re wrong about natural gas.

But that’s OK.

Because we’ve prepared for that too…

So, let’s say we’re wrong.

Let’s say natural gas isn’t the energy of the future.

But if that turns out to be true, we have to figure out what will be the energy of the future.

Wind energy?

Solar energy?

Wave energy?

You know our position on those. We just don’t see how they’ll ever generate the same level of on-demand power supply as natural gas, oil or coal.

By 2010, wind power accounted for just 2.5% of the entire world’s electricity generation.

And a quarter of that capacity is in China, so when the Chinese economy does implode it’ll set the fledgling wind energy industry almost back to square one.

And with nuclear energy seemingly on the nose, the only other viable alternatives to natural gas are coal for electricity generation and oil products for transportation.

We don’t know much about the coal industry, so we’ll leave that to one side. Oil is something we do know a thing or two about.

For a start, we know that with the devaluation of the US dollar, oil has become a key currency in some parts of the world. As this report from El Universal notes:

‘The financial agreement between Venezuela and China was amended. Now, the instrument provides that, in order to pay back the three-year loans agreed with the Asian country, Venezuelan shipments of oil cannot be less than 230,000 bpd [barrels per day].’

China would rather have a set quantity of oil than a stack of devalued dollar bills.

So that’s it then.

Oil it is.

Or is it?

Oil and Gas – A Tale of Two Fuels

Marin Katusa over at Casey Research had some pretty interesting things to say about the oil market yesterday. Here’s a sample of what he wrote:

‘A decade ago it was standard for oil companies to assess a new project’s profitability using an oil price of US$17 to $20 per barrel. Prices had been at that level for many years, and most reservoirs were near surface and easy to access, which meant it often cost less than $10 to produce a barrel of oil.

‘Then we started to deplete the easy oil. The days when a company could simply prick the Earth’s crust in Texas or the Middle East and let the black gold gush became a fond memory. Instead, companies had to drill deeper to find oil, fracture tight rocks to enable oil to flow, figure out how to produce oil from reservoirs underneath several miles of water, or develop methods to separate sticky oil from sand. And production costs soared.

‘By 2008 the cost to produce a barrel of oil from a new project had climbed to between $50 and $75 per barrel. Today, it’s even worse.

‘New production from the Canadian oil sands and from Venezuela’s heavy oil deposits costs roughly $70 to $90 a barrel, all in. Deepwater oil production costs $70 to $85 per barrel. To produce oil from tight oil formations in the United States such as the Bakken shale costs at least $80 a barrel. And production from Arctic oil reservoirs, coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids projects, and biofuels are even more expensive.’

The high oil price had a dual function. It made previously uneconomical oil reserves viable, and it forced energy companies and energy users to look for other energy sources as an alternative to oil.

But here’s the interesting comparison. And it’s why we’ve put natural gas in the box seat.

Where new technologies and reserves have seen the cost of oil production rise and therefore kept the oil price high, the opposite has happened with natural gas.

New technologies and methods of exploiting gas, plus an increase in new reserves, have seen the North American natural gas price slump. It’s down more than 50% over the past 12 months.

So, while we like the oil story (we’ve backed a couple of oil stocks in Australian Small-Cap Investigator), we still take the view that the big advance will be in natural gas.

Oil will continue to be an important fuel for the rest of our lifetime. But with the development of shale gas reserves and the investment going into the LNG industry, our bet is natural gas is the only viable and cost-effective energy source for the 21st century.

But as we say, we could be wrong. We’ll see what the presenters at the Platts LNG Forum have to say and report back tomorrow.

Cheers,

Kris.
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The Divergence of Oil and Natural Gas

China Stirs Up Troubled Waters in the South China Sea

By MoneyMorning.com.au

With all the focus on European financial markets, let’s not forget geopolitics. Just as financial panics evolve into social and political crises, so too do political crises have the potential to become military crises. Nowhere is this more true right now than the South China Sea.

If you asked the average person on the street what simmering political conflict is most likely to turn into a shooting war, most of them would probably tell you Israel and Iran or North Korea and South Korea. Hardly anyone would mention China and the Philippines. But don’t count that possibility out.

In early May the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) deployed CNOOC 981 in the South China Sea. 981 is China’s first self-developed deep sea drilling platform, according to the Financial Times. The platform is located in disputed waters – an area between the Paracel Islands which is claimed by China and Vietnam and the Macclesfield Bank, which is claimed by China and Taiwan.

A Five Nation Dispute in the Making…Make that Eight!

A Five Nation Dispute in the Making...Make that Eight!

What’s So Special About the South China Sea?

The South China Sea is lucrative for its fishing grounds and its potential oil and gas assets. That’s why China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all lay claim to parts of it. You can probably throw in Japan, the United States, and Australia, as all three Pacific powers are bound to be drawn into any serious dispute between the five countries whose land borders the Sea.

In fact the skirmishing has already started. A Philippine naval vessel made an attempt to detail Chinese vessels it said were illegally fishing near the Scarborough Shoal. The Chinese call the Scarborough Shoal Huangyan Island. And that’s the problem. Ownership is disputed.

The result has been a tense one-month standoff. The Philippines can’t really do anything to enforce their claim. And China is flexing its new regional muscle by pushing the Philippines around. The US Navy is nowhere to be seen, or at least heard.

I’m not predicting any kind of imminent conflict. But I am saying you can expect to see more of this. America’s willingness to clash with China in the Pacific is in doubt. Its ability to project force in the middle of a long-term fiscal crisis is also in doubt. China certainly doesn’t have a Blue Water navy that can compete with the US yet. But you’re getting a taste of things to come.

And of course there’s the possibility that financial crises actually accelerate military conflicts. To the extent that a financial crisis radicalises politics, it puts fringe parties in power. The whole political dialogue becomes more bellicose. And as always, blaming an external enemy is a great way to distract angry people from poor economic times.

We knew the popping of the credit bubble would involve deleveraging, first at the household and then the public level. What we didn’t expect so soon is that the bear market in globalisation could quickly lead to State on State conflict. Everyone thought that era was over forever. That’s what they thought in 1914 too.

Dan Denning
Editor, Australian Wealth Gameplan

From the Archives…

How the Ukraine Could Be Europe’s Biggest Shale Gas Play
2012-05-18 – Kris Sayce

Why Greece Can’t Afford to Stay in the Euro
2012-05-17 – Dan Denning

Get in Early on Shale Gas
2012-05-16 – Dr. Alex Cowie

APPEA – Day One at the Oil & Gas Show: Sand Dunes, Scuba Diving and Camels
2012-05-15 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Case for Higher Gold Prices
2012-04-14 – Diane Alter


China Stirs Up Troubled Waters in the South China Sea

What to Expect if Greece Exits the Eurozone and Dumps the Euro

By MoneyMorning.com.au

The only certain thing if Greece leaves the Eurozone is the uncertainty that will certainly follow.

Unable to form a coalition government during May elections, Greece has been forced to hold a second vote on June 17.

In the balance is the future of the Eurozone itself as a “Grexit” looms large.

So much is riding on the outcome that U.S. President Barack Obama and other leaders of the G-8 have conveyed their optimism that Greece will remain in the Eurozone when they convened for a summit on Saturday aimed at keeping Europe’s economic woes from stretching around the globe.

“All of us are absolutely committed to making sure that growth and stability and social consolidation are part of an overall package,” President Obama said.

But many other principals and economic experts are not as committed and believe a Greek exit would be the best move in the long run.

The question is what impact its departure will have beyond its own ailing borders if Greece renounces its debt and leaves the Eurozone.

What a “Grexit” From the Eurozone Means for Greece

What would most likely happen over the next two years is that the Greek economy would no doubt fall more steeply and more swiftly than it currently is.

But after a turbulent period, the Greek economy would grow much more rapidly than it would otherwise, according to Money Morning (USA) Global Investing Strategist Martin Hutchinson.

“To recover,” Hutchinson says, “Greece needs to leave the euro, devalue its new drachma by about two-thirds, and recover an export and tourism sector that would quickly re-employ its people.”

However, if Greece does stop using the euro and issues its own currency its drachmas will at once be significantly less than the euro.

That means banks and companies with foreign debts denominated in euros would be unable to pay their obligations, forcing them into bankruptcy, leading to an even steeper Greek recession.

In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts the debt ridden Mediterranean nation’s GDP would shrivel by more than 10% in the first year. But after a year, maybe two, the picture for Greece would improve and the economy would grow even faster than it would without the devaluation.

The reason, economists say, it that the devalued currency will make imported goods more expensive, forcing Greeks to purchase more domestic products. It will also make the country exports cheaper and more enticing to foreign buyers.

Analysts cite Iceland, which defaulted on its debt and now enjoys a fast growing economy, as an example.

Merrill Lynch also sees a silver lining amid the emerging chaos, noting beaten down European banks may rally following the default if total Armageddon doesn’t occur as a result. Silver linings are usually an indication that the tempest won’t last forever.

Another Eurozone Debt Crisis in the Making?

The nagging concern is the impact that a Greece bankruptcy would have on other nations.

The good news is those risks have actually diminished sharply in the last year and a half since much of the debt has been cleared off private sector ledgers and governments have taken over the arrears.

The EU and the IMF bailed out Greece for the first time in May 2010.

At the time, lenders in other EU nations held $68 billion worth of Greek sovereign debt, according to the Bank for International Settlements. If Greece had defaulted, lenders would have been out some $51 billion at a 25% recovery rate.

But over the next 15 months, those same holdings of Greek bonds dropped by $31 billion. This has dramatically curbed the possibility of a private sector contagion.

The sting would be felt most prominently amid governments. Fitch Ratings reports that public sector claims against Greece will top $450 billion in 2012. Germany’s exposure is some tens of billions of dollars – nearly the German government’s net borrowing for all of the current year, according to MarketWatch.

The Possible Ramifications on the EU of a Greek Exit

But how ever offhandedly some European officials talk of managing a Greek exit, the political and financial costs would embody an essential challenge to the EU and its integrity.

According to Simon Tilford, the chief economist at the Center for European Reform, “Anyone who thinks a Greek departure would be cleansing and not cause systematic contagion is deluding themselves. Already we’ve seen a sharp increase in spreads and the beginning of capital flight in other struggling euro zone economies, with the risks of a full blown banking crisis in Spain, where Moody’s Investor Service has just downgraded 16 banks and four regions.”

In short, it could turn into a crisis. In fact, BBC Business News says we can expect the following if Greece leaves the euro:

  1. Greek defaults
  2. Greek meltdown
  3. Bank runs
  4. Business bankruptcies
  5. Sovereign debt crisis
  6. Political backlash
  7. Recession
  8. Market turmoil

Holders of Greek debt would also take an immediate haircut and investors will speculate and be fearful of who is next in the current fragile financial environment. A Greek default would also reduce investor appetite for risk simply by depressing sentiment. It could also depress business confidence and capital spending in bigger Eurozone countries.

Above all, a Greek default would create uncertainty, because the scope and the duration of the contagion in the Eurozone would be largely unpredictable.

And we all know that markets hate uncertainty.

Diane Alter
Contributing Writer, Money Morning (USA)

Publisher’s Note: This article originally appeared in Money Morning USA

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What to Expect if Greece Exits the Eurozone and Dumps the Euro