Central Banks and US Data Boost Risk Appetite

Source: ForexYard

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Today’s data releases from the UK and the US may help higher yielding assets receive a bid following yesterday’s coordinated central bank move and a reduced Chinese reserve requirement.

This morning we’ll get UK manufacturing PMI which is forecasted to fall to 47.1 from 47.4. Sterling has been bid the past 3-days versus the USD and the GBP/USD may find initial resistance at yesterday’s high of 1.5780, followed by the November 18th high of 1.5890. Support comes in at the November low of 1.5420.

Building on yesterday’s positive ADP jobs report and pending home sales the strong US economic data looks to continue into today and tomorrow. ISM manufacturing PMI will likely show the momentum from Q3 is carrying over in to Q4 which could translate into stronger GDP and finally put to bed the idea of a double dip US recession. Stronger data will likely keep the USD on its back foot and the USD/JPY could test yesterday’s low of 77.30 with scope for the November 18th low of 76.55.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Month End Trading Day Could be USD Positive

Source: ForexYard

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Month end fixing may end up being USD positive as banks’ funding costs for USDs continue to rise. Trading in Asia was off to a rocky start with the Heng Seng down 1.80%. The economic calendar is crowded today but investors will continue to focus on the meeting of European finance ministers.

Bank funding costs are rising as lenders scramble to secure USD funding. Today’s end of month trading may increase demand for USDs, especially in Japan.

The meeting of European finance ministers continues into its second day and an article in The Telegraph highlights comments by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble saying European finance ministers have not agreed on the terms of the EFSF.

This afternoon in the North American session we will have the ADP jobs report and US pending home sales, along with Canadian GDP data.

The USD could continue to firm in light of a failure of the European finance ministers to come away with concrete steps to shore up Europe’s finances. The EUR/USD has support at the October low of 1.3145. A break here and the pair could move to 1.0350, the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the June 2010 to May 2011 bullish trend. Resistance is found at yesterday’s high of 1.3440 and the November 18th high of 1.3610. The CAD/USD found support at 1.2060 and could now test the weekly high of 1.0520.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

USD/SEK Breaking 2-Year Downtrend

Source: ForexYard

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The Swedish krona continues to weaken as the USD/SEK breaks higher above its 2-year downtrend.

Barring any surprises today the USD/SEK looks poised to close on a weekly basis above the downward sloping trend line from February 2009. The pair will encounter initial resistance at the September high of 6.9915, followed by the November 2010 high of 7.0700. A break here will open the door to the 2010 August and June highs of 7.5100 and 8.1350. The broken trend line may prove to be supportive at 6.6860 followed by the October low of 6.3075.

USDSEK_Weekly

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Fed Meeting Minutes to Show Dovish Policy Stance

Source: ForexYard

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Today’s economic calendar will be highlighted by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes which are likely to show the Fed stands ready to act should inflation expectations continue to decline.

Investors remain firmly focused on events in Europe though the release of the meeting minutes from the past FOMC meeting could draw some attention from the markets. The Fed will likely address the improved US economic data but also keep the door open to additional monetary policy easing should the Fed see the need. With the doves firmly in control of the Fed and stagnant US unemployment, we continue to expect the Fed to initiate QE3.

The USD continues to move higher this morning versus the majors with the lone exception being the EUR/USD which has support at the base of the recent consolidation at 1.3430 and resistance at the October 18th high of 1.3555. Cable is trading near yesterday’s low of 1.5610 and a break here could open the door to the September low of 1.5325.

Read more forex trading news on our forex blog.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Investing in the Philippines (EPHE, PHI)

Article by Investment U

These Two Philippine OTC Stocks Should Be on Your Radar

You should be able to do better than the Philippines ETF (NYSE: EPHE) if you can pick the companies growing revenue and profits the fastest.

Last week, a crack reporter for a leading investment newspaper asked me the following question:

“What’s the economic significance/implication of a country having a young population?”

I had to think quite a bit before responding. You often read about the connection between demography and investing. Gurus like Harry Dent focus almost exclusively on demographic trends to make their market calls.

In brief, here’s my take on how a youthful population can affect the potential for economic growth of a country. More importantly for investors, what companies will likely prosper with this demographic wind at their back?

  • Younger people are just at the beginning of their consumer and investor life cycle – great fuel for upward growth of consumer spending in many areas over a long period of time.
  • A younger population means lower healthcare and other government retirement benefits – greatly relieving pressure on national budgets.
  • Younger people get married and have kids – this means a population growth spurt – a key part of the formula for economic growth and a sign of confidence in the future.

But I caution that having a youthful population is far from an automatic success formula. A country needs to have basic institutions in place, such as rule of law and an independent judiciary, good primary education and an open market economy.

Need proof? Many of the poorest countries in the world have a young population, but are mired in war, political instability and corruption. Mali, for example, has 47% of its population under the age of 14.

Growing Faster

It’s interesting though to see that younger countries do seem to be growing faster. I don’t want to bury you in numbers, but let me give you some data points.

While America has 20% of its population under the age of 14, the Philippines tops the list at 34.6%. For Peru, it’s 28.5%, Columbia 26.7%, India 27.3%, Mexico 28.2% and Vietnam 25.2%. For China, it’s a surprising low of 17.6%, and Russia comes in at only 15.2%.

On the other side of the equation, the percentage of citizens over the age of 65 is highest in Japan at 22.9%, while it’s 13% in America, 6.6% in Mexico, 6% in Indonesia, 5.5% in Vietnam and only 4.3% in the Philippines.

The Philippines looks like a clear winner on both ends of the age game.

But the critical question for investors is to think through what areas will benefit most from these demographic trends. A growing population and families at the beginning of their consumer life cycle means higher demand for things like food, drugs, consumer banking services like mortgages, cellphones, oil and energy, waste management, autos and motorcycles, construction and housing.

The Republic of the Philippines

As an example, let’s take a look at the winner of the demographic derby, the Republic of the Philippines. For some time, the Philippines, a country of 100 million, has been a bit of a laggard in Asia, though lately its prospects are brightening. The country is now a net creditor and its budget deficit has dropped to 2% of its GDP. Infrastructure is improving and the political situation seems to stabilizing, and the Philippines’ banking system is the healthiest in Southeast Asia.

All this good news has sparked Manila’s stock market. It was the world’s seventh-best performer in 2011 and, so far in 2012, the Philippines ETF (NYSE: EPHE) is up 25.9%.

iShares MSCI Philippines Index (EPHE)

You should be able to do better than this basket of stocks if you can pick the companies growing revenue and profits the fastest. Some may think that stock picking is an afterthought after identifying a promising trend or market, but it’s by far the most important decision.

For the Philippines, here’s the challenge: there’s only one Philippine stock trading on the NYSE – Philippine Long Distance (NYSE: PHI). And while it offers a nice dividend, the stock seems rather expensive to me and growth is slowing.

There are also 12 “pink-sheet blue-chip” Philippine stocks that trade over the counter, but the liquidity for them is very poor.

If you have a brokerage account that allows you to invest in the Philippine market though, here are a few companies I like in particular:

  • San Miguel Corp, which is not only the dominant (founded in 1890) brewer in the Philippines and many parts of Asia, but is active in food, beverages, power, mining and banking. Drinking beer (before graduating to fine wine or a martini) seems a perfect fit with youthful population.
  • Another good match is SM Investments Corp. Founded in 1960, the company is at the sweet spot of shopping mall development, retail, financial services, real estate development and tourism, hotels and conventions businesses in the Philippines. During the first quarter, revenue was up 16% and net income up 13% year over year. SM Investments is the top holding (8.2%) of EPHE.

For many of you, EPHE is the best fit, but don’t forget your trailing sell stop since there can always be some profit-taking from time to time.

Good Investing,

Carl Delfeld

Article by Investment U

These Two Philippine OTC Stocks Should Be on Your Radar

Article by Investment U

These Two Philippine OTC Stocks Should Be on Your Radar

You should be able to do better than the Philippines ETF (NYSE: EPHE) if you can pick the companies growing revenue and profits the fastest.

Last week, a crack reporter for a leading investment newspaper asked me the following question:

“What’s the economic significance/implication of a country having a young population?”

I had to think quite a bit before responding. You often read about the connection between demography and investing. Gurus like Harry Dent focus almost exclusively on demographic trends to make their market calls.

In brief, here’s my take on how a youthful population can affect the potential for economic growth of a country. More importantly for investors, what companies will likely prosper with this demographic wind at their back?

  • Younger people are just at the beginning of their consumer and investor life cycle – great fuel for upward growth of consumer spending in many areas over a long period of time.
  • A younger population means lower healthcare and other government retirement benefits – greatly relieving pressure on national budgets.
  • Younger people get married and have kids – this means a population growth spurt – a key part of the formula for economic growth and a sign of confidence in the future.

But I caution that having a youthful population is far from an automatic success formula. A country needs to have basic institutions in place, such as rule of law and an independent judiciary, good primary education and an open market economy.

Need proof? Many of the poorest countries in the world have a young population, but are mired in war, political instability and corruption. Mali, for example, has 47% of its population under the age of 14.

Growing Faster

It’s interesting though to see that younger countries do seem to be growing faster. I don’t want to bury you in numbers, but let me give you some data points.

While America has 20% of its population under the age of 14, the Philippines tops the list at 34.6%. For Peru, it’s 28.5%, Columbia 26.7%, India 27.3%, Mexico 28.2% and Vietnam 25.2%. For China, it’s a surprising low of 17.6%, and Russia comes in at only 15.2%.

On the other side of the equation, the percentage of citizens over the age of 65 is highest in Japan at 22.9%, while it’s 13% in America, 6.6% in Mexico, 6% in Indonesia, 5.5% in Vietnam and only 4.3% in the Philippines.

The Philippines looks like a clear winner on both ends of the age game.

But the critical question for investors is to think through what areas will benefit most from these demographic trends. A growing population and families at the beginning of their consumer life cycle means higher demand for things like food, drugs, consumer banking services like mortgages, cellphones, oil and energy, waste management, autos and motorcycles, construction and housing.

The Republic of the Philippines

As an example, let’s take a look at the winner of the demographic derby, the Republic of the Philippines. For some time, the Philippines, a country of 100 million, has been a bit of a laggard in Asia, though lately its prospects are brightening. The country is now a net creditor and its budget deficit has dropped to 2% of its GDP. Infrastructure is improving and the political situation seems to stabilizing, and the Philippines’ banking system is the healthiest in Southeast Asia.

All this good news has sparked Manila’s stock market. It was the world’s seventh-best performer in 2011 and, so far in 2012, the Philippines ETF (NYSE: EPHE) is up 25.9%.

iShares MSCI Philippines Index (EPHE)

You should be able to do better than this basket of stocks if you can pick the companies growing revenue and profits the fastest. Some may think that stock picking is an afterthought after identifying a promising trend or market, but it’s by far the most important decision.

For the Philippines, here’s the challenge: there’s only one Philippine stock trading on the NYSE – Philippine Long Distance (NYSE: PHI). And while it offers a nice dividend, the stock seems rather expensive to me and growth is slowing.

There are also 12 “pink-sheet blue-chip” Philippine stocks that trade over the counter, but the liquidity for them is very poor.

If you have a brokerage account that allows you to invest in the Philippine market though, here are a few companies I like in particular:

  • San Miguel Corp. (OTC: SMGBF.PK), which is not only the dominant (founded in 1890) brewer in the Philippines and many parts of Asia, but is active in food, beverages, power, mining and banking. Drinking beer (before graduating to fine wine or a martini) seems a perfect fit with youthful population.
  • Another good match is SM Investments Corp. (OCT: SVTMF.PK). Founded in 1960, the company is at the sweet spot of shopping mall development, retail, financial services, real estate development and tourism, hotels and conventions businesses in the Philippines. During the first quarter, revenue was up 16% and net income up 13% year over year. SM Investments is the top holding (8.2%) of EPHE.

For many of you, EPHE is the best fit, but don’t forget your trailing sell stop since there can always be some profit-taking from time to time.

Good Investing,

Carl Delfeld

Article by Investment U

Precious Metals Steady as China Spurns Euro Debt, Greece Warned on Euro Exit

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Thurs 10 May, 08:25 EST

WHOLESALE MARKET prices to buy gold and silver repeated yesterday’s rally in London trade after a slight drop Thursday morning, rising back above $1594 and $29.30 per ounce respectively as platinum and palladium also stemmed this week’s sharp drops.

“Technically, many [precious metals] are now oversold,” says a note from dealers Intl FC Stone, pointing to chart analysis and noting that gold trading volume on the Globex futures platform was 40% above the last month’s quiet average on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

“The [price] drop was large and quick, Bloomberg quotes analyst Xiang Nan at CITICS Futures Co., calling a rebound in Asia’s wholesale demand to buy gold overnight “not surprising.

“But the Dollar looks to be strong in the near term and this will limit gains.”

Thursday morning saw the US Dollar creep back from its near-2012 highs vs the Euro, while major-economy government bonds also slipped in price, nudging yields higher from yesterday’s historic lows.

Asian stock markets fell however for the fifth session in a row on Thursday, despite news of a turnaround in China’s balance of trade to a surplus of $18.4 billion in April.

Crude oil extended its drop to 9 days on the run, the longest stretch since early 2009. European stock markets rallied around lunchtime in London, after giving back all of an early rise.

“We doubt whether effective demand by households and firms in the US and the UK today is being boosted materially by 10-year Treasuries being at [historic low yields],” says a new paper from Citigroup economist – and former Bank of England policymaker – Willem Buiter, co-authored with Ebrahim Rahbari.

“[It’s time for] reducing rates all the way to zero” across the US, Euro, Japan and UK they advise, “carrying out more imaginative forms of quantitative easing and credit easing…[and] engaging in helicopter money drops: a combined fiscal monetary stimulus.”

The Bank of England voted today to keep UK interest rates at a record low of 0.5% for the 38th month in succession. It also left its “quantitative easing” program of government-bond purchases unchanged at £325 billion – equal to almost one-third of all gilts currently in issue.

Sterling pushed up to fresh 3-and-a-half year highs versus the Euro currency. Prices to buy gold in British Pounds held near 9-month lows beneath £985 per ounce.

Gold priced in Euros recovered from Wednesday’s 4-month low at €39,200 per kilo.

Shorter-term, howerver, prices to buy gold “continued their melt-down” on Wednesday, says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta, pointing to the sharp recovery from yesterday’s 4-month low.

“[That] 1585 level was also our initial downside target on this move,” says Scotia. “A close below this critical support level will open up a full retracement to 1522. Topside resistance is at 1612, the previous interim low.”

Strong demand to buy gold “will likely require continued deterioration in Europe or in the United States,” says Goldman Sachs’ updated gold price forecast today.

Restating Goldman’s 2012 target of $1840 per ounce on average, “The case for higher gold prices remains in place,” says team leader Jeff Currie, calling gold a “currency of last resort” and warning that June will prove a key period because of US Federal Reserve decisions, European political summits, and a possible re-run of last week’s indecisive Greek election.

“If Greece decides not to stay in the Eurozone, we cannot force Greece,” said Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at a conference Wednesday/.

“There is no alternative to the agreed consolidation program if Greece wants to remain a member of the euro zone,” said his former deputy – and current European Central Bank member – Jorg Asmussen to the Handelsblatt newspaper.

China’s $440 billion sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp. has suspended new purchases of Eurozone government debt, its president Gao Xiqing said in an interview Thursday.

“What is happening in Europe right now is of course of concern,” Gao said. “We still have our people looking at opportunities in Europe, even though we don’t want to buy any government bonds.”

Adrian Ash
BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold today vaulted in Zurich on $3 spreads and 0.8% dealing fees.

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

The Easy Way to Invest in Rising Copper Prices

Article by Investment U

The Easy Way to Invest in Rising Copper Prices

It’s not going to last forever, but copper prices are expected to climb at least until 2015.

Forget about gold and oil prices for the moment…

Instead, you should focus your attention on another commodity that has flat-out outshined them both in recent years in terms of price.

I’m talking about copper. That’s right.

Since May 2009, copper prices have exploded nearly 200% while oil and gold prices have “only” ticked up about 70%.

And this epic run isn’t over yet… not by a long shot.

That’s because, even after falling from its all-time highs earlier this year, demand for copper is still growing over four times the rate it’s being produced…

The Copper Crunch

Today, copper is used in everything from construction to electronics to transportation to manufacturing and more.

In fact, many experts refer to it as “Dr. Copper,” stating it has a Ph.D. in economics, as it oftentimes can gauge the overall state of the global economy.

Most recently though, there were two main reasons why copper prices backed off from their record highs:

  1. Inventory: As you can see below, copper inventories (much of it China’s) have flooded the markets since mid-September 2011…

1 Year LME Copper Warehouse Stocks Level

  1. China: China accounts for just about 40% of world copper demand. In the first three months of 2012, its economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years. Less industry in China means less demand for copper. So copper prices slid lower.

But like I said, this dip is only temporary.

To see why, we’ll need to take a closer look at the supply side of copper.

Remember… It’s All About Supply and Demand

According to CRU Group, the copper market deficit will hit 500,000 metric tons in 2012.

Yet this shortage isn’t coming because of increasing demand. It’s happening because there just isn’t enough copper to go around.

The world’s top four listed global copper miners – Freeport McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), Xstrata (LSE: XTA) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) – saw their copper outputs drop recently between 10% and 18%.

Just to keep up with current contracts, Codelco, the world’s leading copper miner, was forced to buy copper from an outside source earlier this year. What’s more, the copper mining industry has undershot production expectations by an annual average of 5% over the past seven years.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this trend continue, especially as more and more good economic news comes out of the United States.

How to Play the Copper Supply Shortage

It’s not going to last forever, but copper prices are expected to climb at least until 2015. That’s when analysts say there will be enough new mines in production to match demand.

Until then, one of the easiest ways to invest in this price increase is through iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJC), which tracks the price of copper futures on the COMEX.

Just be sure to always use trailing stops and never put more than 1% of your total portfolio into any stock investment.

Good Investing,

Mike Kapsch

Article by Investment U

Major Currency Outlook for Next Week

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The euro has been under pressure all week as traders seek express concerns over the fate of Greece in the trading bloc and other political sentiments from the region. The dollar and the yen have enjoyed most of the fears in the market with demand for safe haven currencies emerging. The pound has kept its grounds against the dollar losing only marginally over the week. The trend this week has been bullish for the dollar and yen while pound and euro has been majorly bearish. Let us see what next week holds for the major currencies.

EUR/USD: this pair is set to close the week lower than psychologically significant 1.30 level. If the euro/dollar pair closes the weak below 1.30, then we are likely to see this pair breaking the uptrend support during in the coming week especially if the industrial Production data to be released on May 14 does not generate positive sentiments for the euro. Another report that will affect this pair is the Gross Domestic Product report for Germany which is expected on Monday 15. The outlook for the EUR/USD pair in the coming week remains bearish where we might see a break of the uptrend support.

GBP/USD: this pair has been under pressure following concerns in the British economy. The BOE meeting decision expected to be released today has kept the pair on the low. Trade Balance and Goods Trade Balance report to be released in UK on Monday are the major reports that will determine how the pair will open the week. The pair is expected to remain at mid 1.61 through next week and we have a neutral outlook for the pair.

USD /CHF: the cross has been moving downwards as traders choose the Swiss franc over the dollar as the better haven. Producer and Import Prices report to be released on Sunday May 14 in Switzerland will have a bearing on how the pair opens the week. We have a bearish outlook on this cross positive reports for the Swiss Franc and demand for safe haven currencies are expected to push the cross downward.

USD/JPY: the demand for safe haven is expected to keep this cross under pressure. However, BOJ is keen on keeping the pair above 80-level mark. Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index to be released on May 13 will determine how the pair opens next week. We remain neutral on this pair over the course of next week.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
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Which Dividend Payer Would You Choose?

By The Sizemore Letter

In looking at two companies in the same sector, would you prefer to have a stock that pays a 2.7% dividend or one that pays a 3.1% dividend?

The answer might seem obvious at first; all else equal, who wouldn’t take the higher cash payout? But before you answer, take a look at Figure 1.

Figure 1


This chart shows the quarterly dividend of the two companies I mentioned above, both major U.S. retailers.  You will immediately notice that one company, “Company A,” has done a much better job than the other of raising its dividend over the past decade and particularly in the last few years.

Company A is the lower yielding of the two, with a current dividend yield of 2.7%.  But should it continue to raise its dividend in the years ahead, investors would realize a much higher cash payout over time despite the slightly lower yield today.

So, let me ask again, dear reader: Would you prefer to have a stock that pays a 2.7% dividend or one that pays a 3.1% dividend?

I’m sure you know what my answer is, and you probably agree.  You will probably agree even more when you find out what the two companies in question are: Company A is megaretailer Wal-Mart (NYSE:$WMT) and Company B is beleaguered electronics chain Best Buy (NYSE:$BBY).

In my last article, I warned investors not to “chase” high dividend yields.

You have chosen wisely.

And while I would hardly call buying a stock that yields 3.2% “chasing” a high yield, the core lesson is the same.  When building a solid, long-term income portfolio, you cannot make your investment decisions based on current yield alone.  Doing so puts you at multiple risks, all of which can be devastating to you long-term investment goals.

I’ll start with the obvious: business risk.  An exceptionally high current yield often means that investors have sold off the stock or bond due to real, fundamental problems with the business. It also often means that the market is discounting a cut to the dividend.

Does this mean that you should always avoid exceptionally high yielders?

Of course not.  Often times the market overreacts and gives us contrarian value investors fantastic opportunities to be greedy when others are fearful.  You have to look at each case individually and make a judgment call.  To give a recent example, I believe that the potential returns far outweigh the risks in Spanish telecom giant Telefonica (NYSE:$TEF), despite the risks implied by its 11% current yield.  There may be short-term turbulence in Europe, but the company’s long-term future is very bright.

I would be far less enthusiastic about, say, Teekay Tankers (NYSE:$TNK), which yields 9.8%.  The oil tanker business is extremely cyclical and subject to booms and busts.  And given the cut-throat competitiveness of the business, longer-term dividend growth (or even dividend maintenance) is by no means certain.

The second reason to focus on dividend growth is protection from the ravages of inflation.  I have no doubt in my mind that Wal-Mart will continue to prosper. Most of what it sells is merchandise that consumers are unlikely to buy online due to convenience and timing issues.  (On a personal note, most of my Wal-Mart purchases are spontaneous and based on immediate needs.  Where else do you buy a Rubbermaid trashcan, a can of paint, or a case of Dr. Pepper at 3:00 am?)

Wal-Mart’s dividend should easily beat inflation in the years ahead, which is critical for retirees that depend on dividends to meet their current living expenses.

I can’t say the same for Best Buy.  While the company is the last man standing among major big-box electronics chains, it is getting hit from two sides.  Shoppers tend to use the stores as a showroom to try out new electronics before whipping out their smartphones to order them online for far cheaper.  And for larger items no usually purchased online—such as home appliances—Best Buy will continue to see tepid growth for as long as the housing market remains depressed.

Best Buy would not appear to be at risk of failure in the immediate future, but investors searching for steady dividend growth should look elsewhere.

Disclosures: WMT and TEF are holdings in the Sizemore Capital Dividend Growth Portfolio.

Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter, and the chief investment officer of investments firm Sizemore Capital Management. Sign up for a FREE copy of his new special report: “Top 3 ETFs for Dividend-Hungry Investors.”