Month: March 2012

Source: ForexYard

Good news for the 17-nation currency as Europe’s finance ministers met today to discuss a possible increase in the rescue fund.As a result of the meeting, European stocks extended the biggest first-quarter gains since way back in 2006 and the Euro appreciated whilst default risk dropped.

The Euro made gains of 0.4% over the U.S dollar and the cost of insuring European sovereign debt against default broke a two-day increase.

The first Quarter saw the Euro appreciate 3% versus the U.S dollar in largest quarterly gain in a year, also showing a boost of 9.9% against the Yen in the same period, its biggest quarterly gain in 11 years.

Officials met today to discuss a possible increase  of the resuce funds. The increase  on emergency lending was said to be close to 940 billion euros which would be set to go until mid 2013.

In the end, the Eurozone countries came to an agreement to boost their firewall against the debt crisis to roughly 800 billion euros. This was officialy announced by Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter in Today’s meeting.

The real significance surrounding the meeting today was not about how much funds are increase by, but its do with the commitment shown by the European finance ministers to tackle the issue and boost funding levels.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Prices of both gold and silver steeply declined during yesterday’s trading and therefore cancelling out the gains made in the beginning of the week.The price of the yellow metal fell on Wednesday by 1.61% to $1,660 while silver also showed a decline of 2.41% to $31.83. Overall during the month of March Gold has dropped by 2.97% whilst silver dropped by 8.11%.

The U.S core durable report was published yesterday and the results were positive, even though the figures fell short of the projections.The report not only affected metals, but other instruments too,including  US Stock market indexes as well as other commodities.

Meanwhile, the European finance ministers will be meeting today, and there is a possibility that they will agree to raise the rescue funds to 1 trillion Euros in order to keep the debt-crisis at bay and ease market concerns.If this outcome will take place, the Euro could be boosted as well as having a positive affect on both gold and silver prices.

Besides the finance ministers meeting today,there are a few additional economic events taking place today. This includes the U.S Jobless Weekly Update,Final U.S GDP 4Q 2011 Estimate and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to say a few words.

Over the past few trading days we have seen both metals change direction rather sharply whilst moving in no clear direction. Certain reports and figures have disrupted gold and silver’s gains made early in the week and the recent protests in India which have moved into their second week,are also partly responisbile for the decline in gold prices.

Today the EU Summit will take place and its possible that the outcome of the meeting will have a strong affect on the Euro and as a result, could affect the direction of the two metals.The U.S jobless weekly update is another report which has the potential to impact the commodities market due to its possible affect it will have on the US dollar.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

Even though we saw the U.S Dollar show some gains over the Euro during Wednesday’s trading, news out of the Euro-zone has been comforting for the 17 nation currency.

The Euro was 0.4% shy of a one-month high after European finance ministers are reportedly set to discuss plans of increasing the rescue fund.The Euro was preparing for its first quarterly gain against the Greenback since June prior to data reports out of Germany, the region’s largest economy that unemployment in the region was it its lowest in 20 years.The figures showed that the number of people out of employment dropped 10,000 from the month of February.

A draft statement written for European finance ministers showed the goverments in the region are preparing for a one-year increase rescue aid to 940 billion euros to keep the debt crisis under control.

Meanwhile, the safe-haven commodity gold showed a drop of 1.6% as the yellow metal failed to breach the $1,700 mark.

As some of you may or may not know,gold and the US dollar have a very interesting connection. Both known as market safe-havens in times of uncertainty or economic difficulties, but the real connection is when the Greenback strengthens, the metal weakens and visa-verse.

Yesterday’s trading saw the dollar make some gains over some currency counterparts which had a negative affect on gold prices.

Protests in India against tax hikes on non-branded gold jewellery as well as gold imports have gone into their second week on Wednesday which is contributed to the drop in gold price occurring late Wednesday. India is the World’s top gold consumer, and the protests are reportedly frustrating imports during a time where the metal is at a high demand.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

A drop in Chinese equities saw the Australian dollar fall to a new year low.

The Aussie Dollar dropped 0.7% to $1,0375 right back to the rate it was traded at the beginning of the year.China, the worlds second largest economy receives a large amount of exported commodities from Australia, and thus its no surprise that the Australian currency will take a hit with negative news coming out of China.

The Euro suffered losses against the US Dollar amid concerns that the Euro-zone leaders could possibly increase the size of the rescue fund.

Wednesday’s trading saw the U.S dollar making some hard fought gains over the Euro. The Euro fell to $1,3298 from $1,3331 during North American Trading late Tuesday, as euro-zone finance ministers apparently discussing a plan to boost the region’s firewall in order to contain the debt crisis.

The Greenback also showed its strength by trading up against 16 of its Major Counterparts due to concerns of slowdown in global growth, causing investors to turn to the safe-haven currency.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Highly compensated earners still can’t make annual contributions to Roth IRAs – directly. However, 2010 gave them a loophole…

The origins of the Roth IRA go back to Newt Gingrich’s takeover of Congress back in 1994 and the “Contract with America,” where it was called the American Dream Savings (ADS) Account.

Unfortunately the plan was vetoed and never set into motion. However, two years later the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 was passed and allowed people to contribute to a Roth IRA plan for the first time ever in the year 1998. The new plan allowed workers to contribute after-tax dollars and have it grow tax deferred until they’re eligible to withdraw the money tax free.

The plan also came with two more benefits. Anyone who contributes to an IRA can roll it over to a Roth IRA, and the plan uses the current year’s income to determine eligibility of contribution or rollover.

However, many individuals were prevented from participating in the Roth IRA because of the stringent qualification requirements. The legislation decreed “highly-compensated” workers couldn’t contribute to Roth IRAs.

Was this Bill Clinton’s way of claiming a possible tax break for the middle class from this Republican legislation? That’s another article…

Anyway, let’s fast-forward to the present. Highly compensated earners still can’t make annual contributions to Roth IRAs – directly. However, 2010 gave them a loophole…

Two years ago, Congress allowed for the expiration of the $100,000 adjustable gross income (AGI) limit on Roth IRA conversions. This ended income limits on Roth conversions while leaving income limits on contributions in place. In effect, this change enabled anyone (regardless of income) to convert and/or contribute to a Roth IRA.

Why Should I Care Now?

Here are few reasons why converting to a Roth may be good for you:

1. Roth contributions are made with after-tax money, but the earnings and all withdrawals in retirement are tax-free. So, a Roth provides a big tax break on the back end that a traditional IRA does not.
2. Roth withdrawals aren’t included in determining how much of a retiree’s Social Security check is taxed under current law. Nor is how much in extra income-based Medicare premiums he/she has to pay.
3. You must start taking minimum required distributions from a traditional IRA when you turn 70 and a half, but you don’t have to take any withdrawals from a Roth IRA.
4. Further, you can leave the whole account to your offspring, who can then stretch out tax-free withdrawals over their own projected life spans.
5. It especially makes sense for people who are younger, because they have more years of tax-free growth.

A Few Concerns Before Jumping In…

You may have heard that a Roth conversion usually means paying a big tax bill. Pulling all of those pre-tax and tax-deferred earnings out could mean a pretty substantial immediate hit.

If you want to limit any conversion tax hit, first roll the pre-tax dollars in your IRA (including pre-tax contributions and tax-deferred earnings) into your employer’s 401(k) plan.

Once that’s done, your IRA will hold only your after tax IRA contributions and possibly earnings on them, depending on whether your 401(k) will take such earnings. Make new after-tax contributions for 2011 and 2012, and then convert at little or no-tax cost.

You probably want to check with your employer sponsored plan about this, but the majority do allow for the roll-in of IRA money. With tax rates and reform on the legislative table, this may be an option to seriously consider.

Good Investing,

Jason Jenkins

Article by Investment U

At last week’s Investment U Conference in San Diego, I made the case (again) for my favorite Asian growth proxy bank: Standard Chartered (OTC: SCBFF.PK).

Life is full of tests.

When I was first approached to write my Global Gambits column for Forbes Asia, the publisher first suggested a test. Would I put together a column on why a bank can be a great proxy for economic growth in a country or region?

My argument was that big banks have deep and broad tentacles in an economy through making loans, taking deposits and providing all sorts of financial services that lubricate the engines of capitalism.

Their performance does indeed tend to reflect the overall health of the economy.

Banks are also a conservative way to play this growth since, if they’re managed conservatively, they tend not to go overboard and manage risk pretty well.

Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, have been rebounding nicely so far this year after a lackluster 2011. If you’re still gun-shy, consider the conservative strategy of investing in quality financial and banking stocks.

This approach offers several advantages.

First, many Asian financial institutions are in a relatively healthy capital position since they’re richly funded by deposits from conservative savers.

Second, Asian banks are well positioned to penetrate untapped markets with an emphasis on consumer outreach and education. Mortgages, credit cards and auto loans are becoming more popular among the three billion Asian consumers who are the backbone of a rising global middle class. As these urban consumers spend more, there’s likely to be an increase in demand for financial products.

Every day, approximately 180,000 people in developing countries move from the countryside to cities such as Shanghai, Jakarta and Johannesburg.

And 75 million people from emerging markets join the global middle class every year. Some estimate that by 2030, more than 90% of the world’s middle-class consumers will reside in developing nations. The opportunity for financial companies to service these new customers is both clear and compelling.

This is coupled with the extremely low level of penetration of financial products and services into Asian households. For example, Andrew Frost, of Matthews Asia Funds, notes that only five years ago medium- and long-term mortgages didn’t exist in Asia (excluding Japan). In addition, Asia’s emerging market capital markets are also extremely underdeveloped.

At last week’s Investment U Conference in San Diego, I made the case (again) for my favorite Asian growth proxy bank: Standard Chartered (OTC: SCBFF.PK).

This hidden gem was founded in 1859 in Hong Kong, but is actually headquartered in London. With over half a trillion dollars in assets, this bank packs a punch well above its weight.

While Standard Chartered is active in more than 70 countries, the bulk of its revenue and profits comes from emerging Asia, and 20% of revenue comes from Hong Kong and Singapore alone. India and Southeast Asia are also key growth markets. In 2011, its 10.2% revenue growth was well balanced, with consumer markets up 12%, conservative and steady trade finance up a robust 25%, and corporate banking up 9%.

I really like that consumer banking forms a solid core of earnings, with 40% of its retail income generated by deposits and related fees. This gives management the flexibility to adjust and to pass on higher interest rates – actually boosting profit margins.

The gold standard for banking stocks is delivering consistent performance. This is where Standard Chartered really shines – 10 consecutive years of up revenue, profits and dividends. The bank currently offers a solid 3.5% yield that’s paid semi-annually.

Finally, while Standard Chartered is always on the prowl for smaller banks to acquire in these high growth markets, it’s oftentimes talked about as a takeover target itself.

The stock has surged 38% since my October recommendation, but still trades at about 1.2 times book value and just a bit over 10 times 2012 earnings estimates. Take a small position now and accumulate on any weakness, but don’t forget to have a 15% sell stop in place in case markets move against us.

Good Investing,

Carl Delfeld

Article by Investment U

Here's today's Central Bank News link list, click through if you missed the previous central bank news link list.  Remember, if you want to submit links for inclusion in the daily link list, just email them through to us or post them in the comments section below.

By MoneyMorning.com.au

During the week, the Saudi Arabia petroleum and mineral resources minister, Ali Naimi, said he couldn’t understand why oil prices are so high.

‘I think high prices are unjustified today [on] a supply-demand basis. We really don’t understand why the prices are behaving the way they are,’ he told the Financial Times.

According to Naimi, supply of oil is much stronger than when oil prices peaked at $147 per barrel back in 2008. He’s even suggested that if needed, the Saudis could increase output as much as 25%. In order to lower the price.

Currently, the Saudi’s have an extra production capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd). This potential is an addition to their 9.9 mbpd output.

Naimi said if his kingdom could reduce oil prices by exporting more, it would.

However, Naimi’s customers aren’t ‘…asking for additional crude. “We are ready and willing to put more oil on the market, but you need a buyer.”‘

Right now, there isn’t a buyer for extra crude oil.

Oil consumption in America is at its lowest since 1997. And production is at its highest since 1993.

While high energy prices are becoming a drain on the US consumer, they’re affecting other developed nations.

On Tuesday, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund highlighted the danger of rising oil prices. Saying increasing prices were a bigger worry for the global economy than Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

So why isn’t the Arab nation rubbing its hands together over higher oil prices? And why would the oil minister even suggest lowering the price of crude?

A Lower Oil Price is Better for Saudi Arabia

In a letter written to the Financial Times, Naimi offers some insight into why he believes crude prices need to drop.

‘It is clear that sustained high prices are starting to take their toll on European economic growth targets… No one benefits from a stagnating European economy and we want to do what we can to help encourage growth… We want to see stronger European growth and realise that reasonable crude oil prices are key to this…’

The thing is, the Saudi ‘break-even’ oil price is $80 per barrel. And even though Brent crude prices are $45 a barrel above that, the minister understands how easily the market can crash.

Saudi Arabia posted a record surplus of $149 billion in 2008, thanks to oil nearly reaching $150 per barrel… followed by a $12 billion deficit in 2009 after the crude price crashed to $40 a barrel.

Even after the country had a $20 billion surplus in 2010, it was only because oil hovered above $80 a barrel. During this time, the break-even price for oil was $57 per barrel.

And here’s the thing. Saudi Arabia has committed to an awful lot of spending this year.

There’s the $100 billion committed to build 16 nuclear power plants over the next few years. Just over $64 billion towards housing on the outskirts of Jeddah. $45 billion is going into youth education. And another $23 billion is going to health care and infrastructure. On top of that is a rail link development between the kingdom’s two holy cities, Mecca and Medina.

Should the oil price fall below $78 per barrel… the Saudi government would either have to cut back in spending or face a deficit for this fiscal year.

It’s because of the massive spending the royals have planned, the oil minister is keen to see a stable, and more importantly, sustainable oil price.

As Naimi said, higher energy prices threaten a European recovery. And a failing Europe threatens his country’s plans.

After all, how else will the Saudis be able to afford the US$1.17 billion they need to build their one-kilometre tall ‘multi-purpose’ Kingdom Tower in Jeddah?

Shae Smith
Editor, Money Weekend

The Most Important Story This Week…

Every economy has to have energy. There can be no production without it. But from which source should we generate the power that we need? Nuclear? Coal? Gas? Naturally, we’d all prefer the most environmentally sustainable option as soon as possible. For this reason, wind and solar power have widespread public support. However, wind and solar make up a tiny – in fact, miniscule – percentage of energy production worldwide. Even this small amount only exists due to government subsidies.

But change is coming – in the fourth largest economy in the world. Germany has decided to shut down its nuclear power plants and become more reliant on imported gas. This is a national security weakness. Germany needs to produce its own power – and is going to bet on wind and solar. It’s a big bet. Are wind and solar power even a viable option? We’re about to find out, thanks to the German taxpayer. This has massive social and investing implications, as it says in The $260 Billion Renewable Energy Revolution Germany Is Set to Invest In.

Other Highlights This Week…

Kris Sayce on How to Avoid the Welfare State Hunger Games: “If you think democracy is the path to freedom and prosperity… that by turfing out one mob and electing another you’ll get a better brand of democracy and the new mob will take care of you – you’re wrong. So, what is the path to freedom and prosperity? The After America investment symposium had the answer to that…”

Patrick Vail on Water: A Long Term Trend to Follow: “Better infrastructure to deliver fresh, clean drinking water to billions of new middle class citizens is also going to be needed, including filters, pumps, pipelines, and new processing plants. That makes the growth in water stocks inevitable as billions of dollars is spent to meet demand. Given the scarcity, the sums are tremendous.”

Shae Smith on Before the US Debt Ceiling Hits Again…: “It turns out, the increased debt ceiling won’t last as long as they’d planned. Or hoped. Or said it would. The outgoing Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, acknowledged this. But he doesn’t think anyone should worry, as the limit won’t happen until ‘late in the year’. But Senator Rob Portman of Ohio isn’t so sure.”

Dr. Alex Cowie on The Star Stocks of the Resource Sector: “I can’t see a solution to push oil prices down any time soon. The Saudis don’t seem to have the spare capacity they claim, and all the strategic reserves that Western governments stash away could only provide temporary relief at best. Brent oil’s is the biggest jump out of all the major commodities in the last three months. Oil stocks could be the trade of 2012.”

Dan Denning on Chinese Currency and The Asian Century: “Dr. Paul Monk, in a very thoughtful and thought provoking speech, suggested Australia might not have to prepare for an Asian Century…because there wouldn’t be an Asian Century. His more direct point was that China is not ready to take over leadership of the global economy yet, and probably won’t be for many years.”

Why Saudi Arabia Wants to Lower the Oil Price

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Lately, Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Mountain View, CA-based headquarters have looked more like the clandestine lair of a Bond villain than a business centre.

The company has poured more than $120 million dollars into construction projects that are fit to house testing labs and top-secret initiatives with names like “Project X.”

One theory about what’s going on at the Googleplex involves the development of a driverless car.

And that may well be true – but the more immediate and practical use for the renovation would be to expand the base from which the company competes with rival Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL).

Google’s war with Apple continues to escalate as the two companies fight for ground in three major consumer markets: mobile devices, Internet search and digital media.

Google fired its first salvo at Apple with the introduction of its Android operating system, which has come to dominate the smartphone market.

Apple recently retaliated by introducing Siri – the voice-activated search engine that has been a major selling point for the latest iPhone.

Still, the biggest clash is set to take place in your living room.

Google and Apple are fighting to be the company that supplies your media at home, stores it for you in a cloud drive, and then distributes it to your wireless devices.

Google has even expressed interest in bringing other appliances into the fold, connecting things like lighting, heating, and air conditioning via the Android operating system – a seamless integration dubbed “Android@Home.”

The goal is to let you control every electronic device in your home through a smartphone or tablet.

This is a battle for what futurists call the “digital living room.”

And it’s just getting started. Here’s a sneak peak at what’s in store.

GOOG and the Digital Living Room

In addition to the Android, Google recently launched an online music store, a social media Website (a la Facebook), and a television platform called Google TV.

And this year, the company is set to launch two more game-changers – a cloud storage service called Google Drive, or G-Drive, and a yet-to-be-named home entertainment system capable of streaming music and other media to your living room.

G-Drive will have to compete with Apple’s iCloud and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) storage service in the still-fledgling cloud computing market.

Some $830 million was spent on cloud services worldwide last year, and that figure is expected to grow by 47% to $1.2 billion this year, according to research firm Gartner (NYSE: IT). Gartner projects that the market for cloud-related services will reach $148 billion by 2014.

With its online store and cloud service, Google is in position both to sell and store music, video, and e-books. But to truly gain a foothold in the digital living room, the company must also control the electronic devices that enable consumers to enjoy these things.

Google has already partnered with companies like Samsung and Sony to incorporate its Android operating system into television sets. But now the company appears ready to cut out the middleman and create its own hardware.

People familiar with the matter told the Journal that Google is developing a home-entertainment system capable of streaming music from G-Drive. Down the road, the new device could also stream video.

These days, the market for home audio equipment isn’t very big. Tom Cullen, co-founder of Sonos – a company that makes such hardware – says the total global value of the market is about $8 billion.

Sonos’ annual sales last year totaled about $200 million, compared to $38 billion in revenue for Google. Of course, the market for streaming video figures to be much bigger.

Streaming video on demand is becoming increasingly popular since online video-rental company Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) began streaming unlimited content to subscribers in 2008.

Netflix now has 21.67 million streaming subscribers worldwide.

Still, this would be a huge shift in strategy for Google, as it would be the first time it’s ever attempted to build market hardware – something Netflix doesn’t do, either. Up until this point, Google has relied on other companies to build and brand hardware that uses the Android OS.

A New Direction for Google Inc.

Rolling out its own device would mean corralling hardware suppliers, manufacturers, and retailers. It might also put Google at odds with the electronics manufacturers that have made Android the world’s most widely used operating system in smartphones.

That’s a risk Google is willing to take to make Android your home’s operating system. It’s also a challenge for which the company is better equipped since paying for Motorola Mobility – the market leader in cable set-top boxes.

The recent renovations to Google HQ figure to be another asset. The San Jose Mercury News managed to dig up public records that shed some light on the company’s plans.

The highest-profile project that Google is working on is the “Google Experience Center” – a 120,000-square-foot private museum that will house the company’s most avant-garde innovations. The purpose of the centre will be to “to share visionary ideas, and explore new ways of working” with up to 900 guests, including prospective business partners and clients.

Additionally, new testing labs – some that screen out radio frequency and others with blacked-out windows – are being built to cater to other top-secret initiatives such as the aforementioned Project X.

So while Apple is dominating the headlines, Google is quietly plotting to steal them.

Jason Simpkins
Managing Editor, Money Morning (USA)

Publisher’s Note: This is an edited version of an article that originally appeared in Money Morning (USA).

From the Archives…

A Better Inflation Bet Than Gold?
2012-03-23 – Kris Sayce

3D Printing: How “Desktop Factories” Will Create the Next $1 Trillion Industry
2012-03-22 – Michael Robinson

How to Invest in the Fastest-Growing Energy Business of the 21st Century
2012-03-21 – Aaron Tyrrell

Why You Should Build Your Wealth Using the Biggest BRICS Possible
2012-03-20 – David Thomas

Oil Getting Ready For Its Next Rally
2012-03-19 – Dr. Alex Cowie

Secret Projects At Google

The past week in monetary policy saw 5 banks announcing reductions to their official interest rates: Morocco -25bps to 3.00%, Belarus -200bps to 36.00%, Romania -25bps to 5.25%, Albania -25bps to 4.25%, and Kazakhstan -50bps to 6.50%.  The Bank of Zambia also announced its new benchmark interest rate would be set at 9.00%.  Those that held monetary policy settings unchanged were: Israel 2.50%, Turkey 5.75%, Hungary 7.00%, Georgia 6.50%, the Czech Republic 0.75%, South Africa 5.50%, and Uruguay 8.75%.

Looking at the central bank calendar, the week ahead sees the central banks of Uganda, Australia, Kenya, Poland, the EU, and UK meeting to review monetary policy settings.  The main market moving banks will be the RBA, ECB, and BoE, though none are likely to make any major moves.  Elsewhere the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC releases its March meeting minutes on Tuesday, and the Swiss National Bank puts out its annual report on Thursday.